BigJonsson
Member
24 million for Greinke.....holy fuck @ baseball contracts
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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency
- Thread starter CygnusXS
- Start date
BigJonsson
Member
Dodgers have too much money.....
Dominican Power
Member
Congrats Yankees West.
Little Green Yoda
Member
That's what gets you ~5 WAR or so on the open market, right? He's been hovering around that mark for the past 3 seasons. So I don't know how much surplus value you'd get in the next few seasons before he approaches his mid-30s at the back end of that contract. Plus, there's the injury/anxiety risks.
$20m ish is what I would expect to pay for him today. The Dodgers get to pay that for him in 2018 when he is 34. By then a guy like Dumpster will probably be getting $35m a year. This is a really good deal.
They are paying the 2012 ace rate for the next six years.
sf2fanatic
Member
yankeehater
Member
Good deal for the dodgers.
I was guessing 27-28 once it came down to two teams who can spend.
Little Green Yoda
Member
Sure, backloading the contract and waiting for inflation to do its work will make it work more easily. But paying $20 million for him today is pretty much paying market value for him - FG has him worth 20.4, 18.1, 22.8 million in the last 3 seasons. You're not getting much of a bargain here unless he gets an uptick in production.
Also note that he's underperformed his peripherals since 2010. bWAR isn't nearly as rosy on him as fWAR is. Combined with the injury risk that comes with offering long term deals to pitchers, it's perfectly reasonable why more teams didn't jump into the fray with similar deals. The Dodgers will be fine though since they're swimming in money. Not sure it would've been wise for a smaller market team to compete with that kind of an offer.
Heart Attack
Member
He's not an ace. What a shit contract for the dodgers.
THERE ARE TEN PITCHERS BETTER HES NOT EVEN ELITE
Heart Attack
Member
You can laugh all you want but its true.
We all laughed, at you, on the last page when you brought that weak claim you mean!
Heart Attack
Member
You can laugh at this prediction. Josh Becket will pitch much better than Greinke. He'll be at best the 3rd or 4th best pitcher in their rotation.
Thanks, we will!
What year did you stop following baseball?
Bwahahahahahahahaha
Dmncnby2k9
Banned
Rangers, I have a Dickey to sell you!!
Little Green Yoda
Member
Stick with trueWAR then. Do you think his age 29, 30, 31 seasons will outperform his age 26, 27, 28 seasons enough to cover the overpayment during his age 32, 33, 34 seasons?
I'd say yes almost solely based on not pitching in front of the Brewers defense and the ballpark.
Also, while he can pitch with velocity he doesn't necessarily rely on it. I could see him having a much longer plateau.
sf2fanatic
Member
Damn Bo turn down the Yankees?
Little Green Yoda
Member
Then why did you want your team to match that contract? :lol Never mind that trueWAR for pitchers don't factor in team defense and Grienke's xFIP has been higher than his FIP in 2 of the last 3 seasons (probably because he only had one full season in MIL to hurt his HR rate numbers).
I won't pretend to know if he can pitch well into his 30s without a dropoff in performance so I'll just nod here. I'm sure pitchers with long plateaus are a very small minority.
Because I would take his performance at that level for $25m/year obviously! Not like the Brewers will be able to afford shot pitcher contracts easier in the future. They need to win with Braun and Gallardo. Small window.
Heart Attack
Member
Gallardo is underrated
Gallardo has been one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball. Totally mediocre.
Little Green Yoda
Member
Didn't your young pitchers do really well last season? Or do you think that was a mirage?
Ninja Scooter
Member
Dodgers have a $220 million payroll now? And they're gonna have to give Kershaw a massive extension in a year or two, no?
No wonder they were trying to trade Ethier.
No wonder they were trying to trade Ethier.
They all outperformed their professional careers to that point. I predict a lot of disappointment, for Fiers in particular.
sf2fanatic
Member
Dodgers have a $220 million payroll now? And they're gonna have to give Kershaw a massive extension in a year or two, no?
No wonder they were trying to trade Ethier.
Ethier wants out. Dodgers are trying to help him out with that..
Also Bo at the ASG...
Ninja Scooter
Member
What the fuck he sign an extension for then? He probably easily could have gotten similar money (if not more) from the Phillies or Rangers this offseason.
sf2fanatic
Member
Before his extension he wanted to go to Boston and play alongside Dustin
hahahahahahah
The Dodgers have the best pitcher in baseball. He just needs to be a good #2 pitcher, which he's more than capable of being.
Not too excited about that one... I'm reading Olt and maybe a pitching prospect.
Meh. This team needs real OF, not another experiment convert.
gaming_noob
Member
CF Colby Rasmus and one of J.P. Arencibia / Travis D'Arnaud for your best offer.