What could be the second biggest UFC show in history was announced by Dana White over the weekend by saying the Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva middleweight title rematch will be on the same show as the Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate womens bantamweight title match.
The show, UFC 168, takes place on 12/28 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Silva had confirmed the date before Whites announcement in an interview with the Brazil version of GQ Magazine.
Immediately people started making predictions on what type of numbers the show would do. The initial reaction is it would be the second biggest show in company history, trailing only UFC 100, on July 11, 2009, which did an estimated 1.6 million PPV buys with a triple headliner of Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir in a grudge match for the heavyweight title, Georges St-Pierre vs. Thiago Alves for the welterweight title and a coaches battle off Ultimate Fighter with Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping.
White predicted a figure between 1.2 million and 1.4 million buys. But there are far too many factors to make any kind of an early prediction.
So much depends on the momentum and dynamic the show garners in the final week. This years biggest show, the 3/16 show, did phenomenal numbers based on Nick Diaz saying all kinds of crazy things in the final week. White had predicted 750,000 buys a month ahead of time, and the show ended up closing in on 1 million.
The biggest factor has to do with the situation with Fox Sports 1. The new network debuts on 8/17, and it may take time for the entire UFC fan base to familiarize themselves with a new channel. All of the key promotion will be on the new channel. In addition, its unclear how many homes the station will open with. At this point, according to a story in the Sports Business Journal, Fox doesnt have carriage deals for DirecTV, the Dish Network or Time Warner Cable, representing 46 million of the 99 million cable and satellite homes in the U.S. With other deals not in place as well, it would appear that at this point they only have deals in 44 million homes, barely more than Fuel. But even if they hit the projected 90 million homes, that is about 8 percent less than the number of homes that could get FX.
Its not as bad as it sounds right now because a lot of times, these deals arent finalized until the last minute. The belief is that cable distributors were paying about 23 cents per subscriber for The Speed Channel, which is turning into FS 1. Fox is looking for an increase with contracts that start at 80 cents per subscriber, but grow to $1.50 per subscriber within a few years. If you multiply those numbers by 90-100 million, thats the kind of carriage revenue they are hoping the new station can deliver. A lot of systems thought they would be able to maintain the 23 cents level with the change, at least until their contracts expire. Apparently Fox isnt allowing that. But if any of those key distributors dont carry the channel, while actual ratings wont be affected, total viewership numbers would, This would hurt UFC with the reach of its TV shows. While it is unlikely it would work out like this, right now based on deals in place Ultimate Fighter and the Countdown shows, may have a far more limited exposure level than first anticipated. And they still have to get viewers used to watching an unfamiliar channel.
On the Rousey vs. Tate fight, the keys to the success are what happens on The Ultimate Fighter show, if the season makes you want to see the women fight, and second, how many viewers end up watching each week, given its on another new night (Wednesday) on an unfamiliar channel
Silva vs. Weidman has gotten a good amount of mainstream publicity with the nature of the finish and the idea it was one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. It was an upset, but not a major upset to the level a lot of the media talk has been. And its brought out the worst, because some people have been so sure that Silva couldnt possibly lose to Weidman, and have thrown out accusations he threw the fight, which was ridiculous in this instance. What hasnt been said is that within the industry, a lot of people were expecting Weidman to win all along.
But there are keys to whether that fight hits mainstream, which have to do with what Silva says and how visible it is, and whether Weidman comes across to the public as a big star in the buildup. The finish of the last fight and the intrigue it caused was perfect for a rematch. But you could say the same about Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard in their third meeting, and in the end, not that many people paid to see it.
There was a huge reaction after the match, but it was far more about Silva losing, or Silva showboating and losing, than Weidman winning. Still, Weidman was deluged with media and came across well doing it, but its going to be impossible to determine until the week before the fight, how much he will be presented as a star on his own.
UFC should promote this card as its 20th anniversary event. The first UFC show was on November 12, 1993, so the 11/16 show in Las Vegas is actually closest to a 20th anniversary. But its still the right year and not that far removed. Two title matches and it being presented as a special card, like UFC 100 was, to give it that WrestleMania aura, can make a big difference. And theres also the very good chance when youve got four headliners that one can get hurt between now and the end of the year.
Christmas is also a factor. My belief is that for a monster event, a holiday date is a positive. That isnt exactly a holiday date, but its the Saturday of a holiday weekend. A lot of people would be in the mood to watch as a group of friends or family if its huge. For pro wrestling, the week between Christmas and New Years, along with the weekend of Thanksgiving, were traditionally the two best weeks of the year for business. But thats a different dynamic when it comes to television.
After Christmas you can more easily get either friends or the family together and do things. An event in town, or parents buying their kids tickets as a Christmas present when the event is the cool thing in the area is a strong positive.
A PPV is different than a live event, but a big event at a time people want to be together may tip some scales over to buying from skipping. In the mid-90s, the old UFC used to put on the Ultimate New Years Eve special, essentially a year-in-review show, on PPV every year, and those did excellent business during the hot period for a taped show with no new material.
The UFCs annual New Years week tradition on PPV in the modern era started December 30, 2006, for the Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz fight that was UFCs first to hit 1 million buys.
The 2007 version, with Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva plus Georges St-Pierre vs. Matt Hughes for the interim welterweight title, did 700,000 buys, going head-to-head with the biggest NFL regular season game of the past few decades, a number that at the time was considered excellent.
The 2008 show, also approached 1 million buys with a triple main event of Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans for the light heavyweight title, Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the interim heavyweight title, and Wanderlei Silva vs. Rampage Jackson.
There was no 2009 show, instead there was a January 2, 2010, show headlined by Evans vs. Thiago Silva. That show was destroyed by injuries and did not do well based on usual numbers at the time, but did no worse than should have been expected given the main event.
The January 1, 2011, show, headlined by the second Edgar vs. Maynard fight, also didnt do well, but it was also a show that would have been figured to do baseline numbers.
The December 30, 2011 show, may be the exception to the rule, Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem did about 540,000 buys, well below expectations. But this show had the disadvantage of being on an unfamiliar Friday night, Overeem was making his UFC debut and Lesnar was clearly hurt by the nature of his loss to Cain Velasquez.
Last year was the second Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos fight on December 29, 2012. That show didnt do all that well. But Velasquez was largely an ethnic star, and it was a rematch off a one-punch knockout in their previous fight. It also had no marquee undercard fights with Jim Miller vs. Joe Lauzon, a great fight but not a fight with big stars, in the No. 2 position.
So the results bear out the theory. The week helps if its a big time major show, but doesnt help a normal show much if at all.
Theres also the aspect of a Prime Time show, whether for one fight, or for both. UFC hasnt done one of those since Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche. The problem is, its a lot of money to spend for a show that would air on Fuel. So much depends on if Fox Sports 1 comes out strong.
Still, the double title match card should be the second biggest in history. Silva vs. Weidman is one of the bigger rematches ever. Its probably not the biggest to the public, although it will be promoted like it was. But of all the major rematches in history, only Lesnar vs. Mir had a No. 2 fight of that level.
As a kid on the playground, the most humiliating thing you could hear if you were a guy is, You fight like a girl.
For anyone watching the 7/13 debut of the Invicta Fighting Championships on PPV, that insult to a new generation may end up as a compliment.
The show, before a sellout crowd of 1,137 at the Ameristar Casino in Kansas City, had both positives and negatives as a night of entertainment. But the one thing that couldnt be argued was the skill level of the fighters, and in most cases, the quality of the fights.
As far as whether an all-womens promotion can financially pay off, in the end, that is going to be answered like it would be for any fledgling MMA company. It comes down to whether they get the right television partner to pay them enough to make it viable, and once getting that partner, being able to create big enough stars and attract enough interest among both MMA fans and the public.
PPV without television is not going to work long-term, but PPV in this instance, priced low at $14.95 for SD and $24.95 for HD, was clearly there hoping to maximize casual and impulse buys to try out the new product, as opposed to generate the most money for one night on a big show.
Without a television deal, it did give the promotion and its fighters at this stage of growth, the opportunity to be seen by more viewers than ever before.
It would be difficult to go away without some positives, most notably the exciting, and often evenly matched fights with women who with the right promotion and exposure, have potential to be future stars, such as the tiny but super fit looking Tecia Torres, skillful boxer Mizuki Inoue, Rowdy Bec Hyatt, Joanne Calderwood, Jessica Penne, Leslie Smith and Brazilian Claudia Gadelha.
Where Invicta, if they can get the necessary television deal, can fit in is that UFC only has one womens weight class. You could argue for sport it would be the best thing for UFC to have a full complement of weight divisions for women, at this stage having the number of womens matches to make that work would be counterproductive to the big picture.
When it comes to UFC, one or two womens fights on a 12 fight card is a change of pace. I dont want to say more than that would absolutely be a mistake, because in the end its about stars, not the sex of the fighter. But Invicta works not only as a breeding ground for new fighters, but for allowing women who arent best served to fight at 135 to have a place to go. But being the right thing for the good of the athletic side of the sport doesnt mean it will work, nor even that the fan base will support it.
But fights are still sold by main events. Cris Cyborg Justino vs. Marloes Coenen was the strongest fight the company could put on at this time. With Cyborg (12-1, 1 no contest) dispatching Coenen (21-6) to become the first Invicta featherweight champion in such one-sided fashion, the promotions biggest star now has no similar-level opponent in sight. Based on this fight, Cyborg may be so far ahead of the pack at 145 that there may be no competition. And with her look and failed steroid test, the idea of her as the face of a company beating up on women who arent competition can leave some with a guilt feeling for watching, and leave others not being entertained. Yeah, shes a perfect opponent for the right star in a dream match situation, but if she wins, as we already saw with the Gina Carano fight, it can greatly stifle growth in that end of the sport.
Cyborg was put in the spotlight and delivered, strengthening a potential 2014 fight with Ronda Rousey. But if such a fight happens, likely forcing Cyborg to cut from 145 to 135, itll be in UFC, and probably be the biggest womans combat sports fight in history. If Rousey isnt competitive in that fight, the reality is it will be great for a day but bad long-term for the sport. And for Invicta, Cyborg dominating and leaving to UFC does no favors for building its brand, and strengthening its own promotion has to be the companys primary goal as opposed to creating UFC main events.
A possible next opponent for Cyborg could be Ediane Gomes (10-2), who Cyborg was originally supposed to meet on 4/5, before Gomes pulled out late due to an injury. After the show, that fight was hinted about, but Invicta president Shannon Knapp said a decision had yet to be made.
Gomes ended up as one of the many casualties in the final few days in a show that appeared so cursed in the first few hours that announcer Mauro Ranallo was joking about what the 13 in July 13 really meant.
Problems started with fighters dropping almost like war casualties. Gomes herself went through three different opponents, and ended up not even having a fight. Originally scheduled against Julia Budd, it was changed to Canadian Charmaine Tweet, who couldnt get into the country due to visa issues. That was changed to Tamikka Brents, and given Brents having little notice, the weight was changed from 145 pounds to 150. Brents then missed weight, coming in at 155.1 pounds, but the fight was still going to happen, until Brents then injured her knee warming up after the prelim fights had already started.
This cut the scheduled two-hour free preliminary fights from four bouts to two. Veronica Rothenhausler, who was to face Mollie Estes in a featherweight fight, was pulled from the fight the day before by doctors after issues related to cutting weight for the weigh-ins.
Additionally, in a third of the four originally scheduled prelims, Livia von Plettenberg, scheduled to face Cassie Robb at 105, ended up first weighing in at 113 the day before. The decision was made to instead put her against Kathina Catron, not even scheduled on the show, and the weight class was moved all the way to 125, with both women eventually weighing in at 123.
Both Robb, Estes and Gomes ended up getting their appearance money, but none were able to fight on the show.
As a potential contender for Cyborg, Gomes does have four wins in a row, but was also one of Rouseys victims, losing in 25 seconds to an armbar, in a fight on March 27, 2011.
Fortunately, there were no changes after weigh-ins when it came to the main card.
Knapp had before the show promised quick turnaround between fights. If you were watching with the idea that you saw nine pay-per-view fights for a low PPV price, then, based on the going rate, it was a bargain.
But based on reaction we received, they would have likely been better off with seven fights, and more packages and interviews between fights so people can better identify with the participants.
For first-timers, and there were many, much of the show consisted of a fight between two people they didnt know, with a quiet crowd. There were so many fights that they became less memorable when it was over. As far as the fights, many were evenly matched and some were difficult to judge.
The show opened with Torres (3-0), taking the measure of Rose Namajunas (2-1), the girlfriend of popular UFC fighter Pat Barry, in the kind of an opener that every show would love to have. The two strawweight (115 pound) fighters set the tone for the show, with three rounds of non-stop action. That set the theme for the show as a whole.
Up and down, because the women in general are smaller than their male counterparts, the positives were that they could fight three rounds at a faster pace without tiring. The negative is, with the lack of power, more fights seemed destined to go the distance. The women werent cautious standing, with plenty of great exchanges. Nor were they shy about constantly going for submissions on the ground. The moves and escapes were more exciting than the majority of mens shows. The wrestling skill wasnt as high. The striking, while lacking power, was in most cases very technical. No fighter on the show looked like they didnt belong.
The third fight featured a potential future superstar in Inoue (6-1), a Japanese strawweight fighter who is 18-years-old, and had boxing skill far beyond her years. Still, she fought a close fight that could have gone either way with crowd favorite Hyatt, of Australia (5-3), whose work on social media made her among the best known of the undercard fighters.
Both fights would have been up for best fight on nearly any show, but the fight-of-the-night honors went to a decision win by Leslie Smith (6-3-1) over Jennifer Maia (7-3-1) with a shot at Barb Honchaks flyweight title at stake. Smith, a Pleasant Hill, CA, product of the Cesar Gracie camp, who lost a controversial decision to Sarah Kaufman in her previous fight, and has since dropped to 125, fights with the kind of pace of a Diaz Brother. But besides the constant barrage of punching, she throws in a lot of kicks. During the second round, as the two exchanged holds on the ground, announcer King Mo Lawal said it reminded him of watching Dean Malenko.
Round three opened with both going back-and-forth with punches to where it was like the Frye-Takayama fight. Maia still worked for submissions late before Smith got the decision.
After the show, Knapp confirmed a Honchak vs. Smith fight upcoming, as well as Carla Esparza defending the strawweight title against Brazilian Claudia Gadelha (11-0), who was simply too powerful for Ayaka Hamasaki (9-1), the champion of Japans Jewel promotion. Former atom weight champion Jessica Pennes submission win over Nicdali Rivera-Calanoc at 4:57 with a choke and body triangle, should put her in line for a rematch with new champion Michelle Waterson. Penne was winning that fight until getting submitted late in what was one of the better fights, male or female, of this year. But Knapp hinted at Waterson defending against someone else before Penna got her rematch.
No future date was announced, although the promotion after the show was talking about an October show, in Kansas City. Knapp talked about how the company is working on a reality show, saying it would be completely different from Ultimate Fighter and Fight Master. When asked if the October show would be on PPV, she said it could be on television instead, but for obvious reasons, couldnt hint at where.
Esparza was at ringside while Gadelha was controlling Hamasaki, before finishing her at 3:58 of the third round with punches on the ground. But inviting the two of them into the ring to discuss a potential fight would have given the viewers an imprint of something to look forward to next.
From a technical standpoint, there were some cable problems in parts of the country, but it was not a national issue as most reported no issues.
From an announcing standpoint, the threesome of Mauro Ranallo, Julie Kedzie and King Mo Lawal, who have been with the group from the start, were well prepared. But with so many close fights, the announcers need to talk about who they feel is winning and why. Ranallo declined to give opinions on who was winning the fights, as did Kedzie. Lawal would, when prompted, but wasnt encouraged. There were decisions booed, like Hyatt losing, and a prelim result where Emily Kagen won over Ashley Cummins that led to massive confusion. But there was no discussions over the scoring, either speculating much on who was winning close rounds and why, nor talk after decisions were read. With no post-fight interviews, except after the main event, they moved as quickly as possible to the next fight.
On a show with a lot of fighters much of the audience would likely only know by name, if that, you need more in the way of background, and establishing who people are. To a TV viewer, Cyborg was clearly an unbeatable monster, but the lack of crowd reactions didnt make the great fights stand out as much as they could have.
Miriam Nakamoto, a kickboxer from Northern California, looked great with punches and hard knees in finishing Duda Yankovich in just 2:08. She showed a style that would get over on any show, but at 36, it may be too late to build her.
Some background was supplied, as far as where they came from, or in some cases, like Lauren Taylor, her using fighting to battle back from drug issues. Post-fight interviews would have helped familiarized the audience with the winners, and quite frankly, many of the losers looked impressive enough that youd want to bring them back and hear them talk about the experience, their feeling on the judging, and their opponents.
The crowd was quiet most of the way. Ranallo described it as a Japanese crowd, but for a casual fan watching, it took away from the atmosphere.
Live reports indicated the crowd was with every move in the main event, but that didnt come across on television.
This group doesnt have the budget to have the kind of production people expect from HBO Boxing or UFC, or for that matter, even Bellator. There were a few weird noises on the mic at times, but far less people than would usually work behind-the-scenes on a pay-per-view held the show together well.
Overall, watching the show was an enjoyable experience because the fighters, by and large, delivered. It was a good show, but not a great show, with the cramming too many fights in and lack of crowd reaction hurting the atmosphere, because as far as fights went, even with all the decisions, any show should love to have the action the competitors brought. Thats been a consistent theme of the promotion, as the last several shows were every bit as good as this one.
If someone is a fan of huge impressive events, at this stage, Invicta cant afford to be that, and may never be able to afford to be that. If you want a fun Saturday night of seeing several fighters who are likely to be stars in a few years, and spirited competition with fighters who can go all out for the duration of the fight, this fit the bill. Any negatives within reason are fixable, but long-run, its still about getting the right television partner.