Coincidentally, I wrote about those 2 specific PPVs in more detail.
Regarding the recent PPV shows, the 5/25 show from Las Vegas headlined by Cain Velasquez vs. Bigfoot Silva and Junior Dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt did about 380,000 buys. At the end of the day, nobody bought that Silva could beat Velasquez, and Hunts popularity was strictly hardcore niche thing that doesnt move numbers. UFC 161 headlined by Dan Henderson vs. Rashad Evans on 6/15 from Winnipeg did in the 135,000 to 150,000 range, which was among the lowest since they got television in 2005. This number is key because it shows the baseline number that will order any show because its Saturday night and its UFC has dropped. They had two established names as the main event but nothing from a drawing power standpoint underneath (the No. 2 fight was Roy Nelson vs. Stipe Miocic). It was also the day before a WWE PPV, and while usually that hurts WWE, in this case given the lineup comparisons, it may have hurt UFC. Nobody expected that show to do well at all, but it did significantly worse than most predictions. Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman on 7/6 did 550,000 according to early estimates, which included the largest number of late buys since the Brock Lesnar era. While not close to the 800,000 mark Dana White talked about the night of the show based on trends (as it turns out, Silvas trending numbers beforehand always indicate bigger numbers than he delivers), it still finished above company internal projections and most predictions. It would also indicate that Chael Sonnen made Silva into a bigger draw, because he never did numbers like that in the past against virtual unknowns (some will cite his number with Thales Leitis, but Chuck Liddell vs. Shogun Rua drew that number, not Silva vs. Leitis), or a show that he faces Demian Maia, but again, that had a B.J. Penn title defense against Frankie Edgar on it and the draw was Silva & Penn both, since Penn as champion was a big draw on his own. Silva is now the companys clear No. 2 star behind GSP. I guess the promotional strategy of getting all the fighters to predict Weidman paid off in the end as well.
Looking at this going forward, the 8/3 show (Jose Aldo Jr vs. Chan Sung Jung for the featherweight belt) is probably going to do similar to UFC 161 numbers. Its from Brazil, which hurts. While Jung does have popularity, the card doesnt have much of an undercard other than Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida for U.S. fansTom Kong Watson, the popular U.K. fighter faces Leitis). The 8/31 show with Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis (lightweight title)and Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett should do better. Well see how much two winning FOX main events has helped Henderson, The main event does have a back story, its a rematch nearly three years in the making of a classic fight, and Mir vs. Barnett has two guys who are among the best at talking up a fight. 9/21 in Toronto with Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson (light heavyweight title) and Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland (interim bantamweight title) by all normal circumstances should top 400,000. What could hurt is that 9/14 is Mayweather vs. Alvarez that is going to be one of the biggest PPV events of all-time and most people ordering will spend $75 for the HD price. The question is how much does coming one week after that hurt, which is uncharted waters. Usually Id say boxing has no real impact, especially a week later, but this may be the rare crossover culture show like Mayweather-De La Hoya or a Tyson fight where everybody watches and with that bill, it may impact PPV for a week or two after. Plus, if youre a casual UFC fan who has friends coming to the house to watch fights, youre watching the boxing and one week later is early to have everyone over again. 10/19 has the Velasquez vs. Dos Santos show with a good undercard. This is a real test. Youre not getting any good hype promos building it, which is good for the late buys. You will get that from Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson. This should do reasonably well. The 11/16 with GSP vs. Johny Hendricks should do in the 700,000 range, and the 12/28 show should be the biggest since UFC 100.
Nelson signed a new nine-fight contract and his first fight will be on 10/19 in Houston against Cormier. Cormier wanted to be on the card so he and Velasquez could train together and peak at the same time. Cormier took a fight that wont help him at all, past financially, with a win, because people see him, at 12-0, as way above Nelson, who is coming off a loss to Stipe Miocic. But Nelson is dangerous because hes got the one punch knockout power. Cormier will have a substantial speed advantage, and should be able to out wrestle Nelson as well. Nelson, who just turned 37, expects to retire in the UFC, and figures with this nine-fight deal, that hell be fighting five more years, until the age of 42. Cormier is expected to drop to 205 after this fight. In fact, he has actually said that if he beats Nelson, hes going to go on the mic and ask for a shot at Jon Jones. However, if Dos Santos wins the title and Cormier beats Nelson, Cormier may not drop and may get the next heavyweight title shot. UFC has been interested Jones vs. Cormier because of the feeling that nobody really believes anyone at 205 right now can beat Jones, while Cormier is unbeaten at heavyweight, and it will be the first time Jones faces someone who is a better wrestler, at least on paper, than he is. The word we got is that Bellator made Nelson a good offer, with more downside money at least at the start of the contract. But between sponsorships, exposure and longevity, UFC was the right business move. The better business move in hindsight would have been to sign the original deal offered before the Miocic loss, but Nelson gambled on letting his contract expire figuring hed be a free agent as a guy with cult popularity and as a heavyweight knockout artist with a four fight win streak.
Chael Sonnen just signed a new five-fight contract. He has said that after his 8/17 fight with Shogun Rua in Boston, that hes dropping back down to middleweight and looking for fights with Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva. However, Silva said hes not interested in facing Sonnen, saying he believes that Rua will end his career in the next fight.
This weeks card on 7/27 in Seattle is a show for FX and FOX. Its the next to last show (8/3 being the last) to air on FX. The Facebook prelims at 4 p.m. Eastern are John Albert vs. Yaotzin Meza and Aaron Riley vs. Justin Salas. At 5 p.m. Eastern on FX, its Germaine de Randamie vs. Julie Kedzie in Kedzies UFC debut, Ed Herman vs. Trevor Smith, Daron Cruickshank vs. Yves Edwards, Danny Castillo vs. Tim Means, and local product Michael Chiesa vs. Jorge Masvidal. The FOX fights at 8 p.m. Eastern are Jessica Andrade vs. Liz Carmouche in the first match in UFC history where both fighters are openly gay (I dont see this as significant but its gotten some play), Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker, Jake Ellenberger vs. Rory MacDonald (the real main event) and Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga for the flyweight title. If this show does even a 1.4 on FOX with this lineup, they should be thanking fate because this is by far the weakest marquee show theyve put on FOX, plus being in the summer doesnt help matters.
MacDonald told me this week that he wanted a title fight if he won, but under no circumstances would he ever fight GSP, who he often trains with. In fact, on the Road to the Octagon preview show, they had clips of the two sparring. He said he could move up to 185. The thing is, MacDonalds big attribute at 170 is that hes so physically strong at that weight, and at 185 he gives up a lot of that advantage. He could beat people at 185, but I dont see that hed be able to be a title contender at that weight. It is notable that on the same Countdown to the Octagon show they also showed him sparring with Chris Weidman. Realistically I see, with GSP not fighting until November, that the Weidman vs. Ellenberger winner and the 8/28 Kampmann vs. Condit winners should face (or if one is injured, you can throw Demian Maia against the healthy winner), and that would determine the next contender for GSP or Hendricks. And if Hendricks wins, the logical thing would be to give GSP an immediate rematch because that could be a 1 million buy rematch. The point is, there are so many pieces that have to fall into place and the only way GSP vs. MacDonald would be considered would be if GSP wins, and MacDonald really beats two more top contenders. GSP predicted that MacDonald, who turned 24 this week, would surpass all of his achievements.
Its a crazy run from here with 8/3 on PPV from Rio de Janeiro (Jose Aldo vs. Korean Zombie), 8/17 the FS 1 debut in Boston (Chael Sonnen vs. Shogun Rua), 8/28 on FS 1 from Indianapolis (Martin Kampmann vs. Carlos Condit), 8/31 PPV from Milwaukee (Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis), and 9/4 on FS 1 from Brazil (Glover Teixeira vs. Ryan Bader). I dont see any of the shows doing any kind of special numbers except possibly Sonnen vs. Rua, and that would only be if all the promotion of the station and by Sonnen really takes hold.
The Association of Boxing Commissioners will have their annual meeting next week in San Antonio. Nick Lembo of the New Jersey Athletic Control Board is going to be presenting some ideas for rule modification and clarification. There are two rules that have been talked about being clarified. One is not allowing kicks and knees to a grounded opponent. The actual rule is not going to change, but the belief is, and accurate, that if someone aims a kick at a standing opponent and they rush to put their hand on the mat, technically if the kick or knee lands, it becomes illegal. That is the way the rule is written but is not the spirit of what the rule was supposed to be about. The other is to establish a protocol on eye pokes. There was a recent UFC fight where after an eye poke, the ref asked the fighter if he could see, and the fighter answered honestly and said he couldnt because he had just been poked and hadnt had time to clear his eye. The ref heard the fighter tell the truth and stopped the fight. People think eye pokes and low blows have the same rules because the ref can call a time out for either and warn the guy who did it. But with a low blow, the fighter gets five minutes to recover. With an eye poke, there is a belief thats the case, but in reality, its not the case. I think the idea is to have the referee call the doctor and let the doctor examine and make the call whether the guy can recover and continue, as opposed to making an instantaneous call.
Upcoming advances as far as paid tickets are concerned, the 7/27 show in Seattle has sold 6,500 tickets, which is less than half of the previous shows, for a gate somewhere around $700,000. The 8/3 show in Rio de Janeiro has sold 10,000 tickets for $1.5 million, which is healthy and about on par for an Aldo-headlined show. 8/17 in Boston has sold 8,400 tickets for $1.2 million, which is good for a Fight Night type card, but I would think they were hoping first time in Boston in three years would do better. We dont have anything for 8/28 in Indianapolis. 8/31 in Milwaukee has sold 4,500 tickets for $650,000, which is well below usual PPV sales numbers.
Frankie Edgar has said that he wants a fight with Cub Swanson, preferably on the 11/16 show in Las Vegas. He wants to time it so hes able to fight on the 2/1 Super Bowl show in Newark, NJ, because he hasnt fought in his home state since 2007. Swanson has said hes not interested, feeling he can get a shot at the Jose Aldo-Chan Sung Jung winner, figuring its between he and Ricardo Lamas. Even though Lamas beat him when they fought, Swanson has five straight wins since that fight, and noted that he was a lot more popular a fighter than Lamas.
Sonnen claims that whatever beef he had with LeBron James is over and James has made it right. Whether they actually talked and settled things for what James did (allegedly making an inappropriate comment toward Sonnens girlfriend, who is now his wife, at a show last year) or Sonnen made up two incidents and a discussion where James made it right.
The Gay and Lesbian Community Center of Southern Nevada awarded the UFC as its 2013 Corporation of the Year. Tom Kovach, the interim executive director of The Center said when giving them the award that, The Center is fortunate to have such a strong corporate partner in UFC. They have made important contributions of time, energy and financial resources to our new home and have been equally constructive in seeking ways to further The Centers mission going forward.
More hype from Dana White on the next season of Ultimate Fighter: Im telling you, they (Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate) hate each other so bad. Every time Ronda sees her, shes flipping her off and getting in her face. You will see a lot of that this season, a lot of blur marks. Rousey, in an article in Las Vegas Weekly, said, After the fight, she is going to be ruined. I dont just plan on winning. I plan on defeating my opponent forever. If youve ever read Enders Game, thats the idea. He says you dont just win one fight, you win so devastatingly that you win all future fights. Im going to try to break her mentally and defeat her in the most devastating way possible. This girl is never going to want to see me again.
They will be doing three-week Prime Times starting 10/2 on Fox Sports 1 to build the Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos fight. They will also be doing three weeks prior to GSP vs. Johny Hendricks in November and Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva in December. A key to the effectiveness will be how popular Fox Sports 1 gets when it launches.
Dan Henderson went into his fight with Rashad Evans on 6/15 in Winnipeg without using any testosterone replacement therapy, as hes used for his fights dating back to 2007. Henderson said it became clear to him the Manitoba commission was not going to approve it, so he withdrew his application. He said he stopped testosterone use six to eight weeks out, long enough to pass any test, after his doctor told him it wouldnt be a problem. Thats weird because the idea is that if you need the therapy, once you start, you are on it for life. Henderson lost a decision to Evans. I guess they wont approve it unless you can prove a physical problem with your body that would explain why you need it other than just testing low for testosterone, Henderson told MMAJunkie.com. You have to give them a reason why your body has a physical ailment, such as your pituitary gland or something. That wasnt my case. They werent going to approve me, so I didnt even apply for it. After they spoke to my doctor, I just withdrew my application. He said as far as training went on low testosterone, he had a few minor flare-ups with an asthma condition hes had his entire life and got fatigued at times, but said he didnt feel a major difference. He said he was tired here and there but otherwise he felt it was a normal training camp. He said he felt he did get sick less often and seemed to have more energy on it, and hes back on it, noting hes only taking low doses to get him into the normal range (hes tested frequently when fighting in Nevada and has actually always tested even on TRT at the low end of normal).
Retired Hall of Fame fighter Stephan Bonnar has challenged retired Hall of Fame fighter Tito Ortiz to come out of retirement, mad because Ortiz said what so many others were thinking about Bonnar being in the Hall of Fame. Im gonna help him out, said Bonnar. We all know hes broke. We know Jenna Jamesom took all his money. You know, Punishment Clothing the only people I see wearing that nowadays are homeless people.. Pat Healy vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov has been added to the 9/21 show in Toronto. Nurmagomedov, who is 20-0, set the UFC record for takedowns in one fight with 21 officially (my play-by-play actually listed 28) on his win over Abel Trujillo on 5/25. Healy is a tough wrestler coming off a win over Jim Miller on 4/27 where he got $130,000 in performance bonuses and lost them all, as well as his win and win bonus, for testing positive for marijuana. Also added to that show is John Makdessi of Montreal against Renee Forte.