UFC has what should be its biggest show in four-and-a-half years on 12/28, with UFC 168, from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
The show features two of this years biggest matches, Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva for the middleweight title, and Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate for the womens bantamweight title.
Weidman vs. Silva, on its own, should be one of the biggest matches in UFC history in theory, based on perhaps the single most perfect finish to build a rematch in history. Its being billed as such, and its gotten the lions share of the company hype and promotion as the main event. Biggest rematch in history covers a lot of ground. As a fight to purists, its a lot bigger than the second Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz fight, but it is unlikely public interest in it will be as big the day of the fight, or if it will connect as big as that or the second B.J. Penn vs. GSP fight. Is it bigger than the second Silva vs. Chael Sonnen? Weidman is a better fighter than Sonnen and Silva is several years older, so in theory, its more competitive. Plus Silva snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat, or perhaps Sonnen did the opposite, with time running out in the first fight. But as far as business interest, even with all those things and an even better finish (although Silva vs. Sonnen had an exceptional match storyline to build a rematch), the value of Sonnens promotional ability cant be overlooked.
The recent special programming, a Flashback show on the first fight, and the usual Countdown show, were both strong. But they were also on FS 1, had far less viewership than such a show would get on Spike or FX, and the Countdown show debuted on Christmas Eve at 10 p.m.
Still, the live show topped $6 million weeks ago and has sold out well in advance, making it the third biggest gate in company history.
The main event has an amazing story. At 38, Anderson Silva had established himself in most peoples eyes as the greatest MMA fighter of all-time. GSP fought tougher guys, but didnt finish at nearly as high a rate. Fedor Emelianenko went unbeaten longer, but it was against far easier competition, and the last time he looked like the best fighter in the world was at the age of 32, while Silva still looked the part in his previous fight. Silva came into the fight with the longest title reign in UFC history, just shy of six years and nine months, as well as holding records for the most title defenses and the most consecutive wins. Hed never lost in the Octagon, and was never in danger of being finished. He regularly made good fighters look like amateurs.
But there was always the book on how to beat Silva. It was to get a great wrestler who had strong submission defense and stamina, who could take him down and ground him out. At some point, everyone gets old, but Silvas speed and reflexes were still top notch and nobody really wanted to stand with him.
Dan Henderson lacked the stamina. Yushin Okami had the stamina and submission defense, but wasnt a good enough wrestler, plus mentally seemed beat before the match even started.
Chael Sonnen in theory showed the book was correct, but his lack of strong submission defense did him in. Still, in hindsight, theres some question about Sonnens testosterone levels and whether Silva really did have a rib injury. Whatever the first fight may have proven about Silvas vulnerability, the second fight may have proven that Silvas post-fight excuses, as much as people didnt want to believe them, had a likelihood of being true. It was a completely different fight, with Sonnen being finished early in the second round.
Weidman was the actual prototype of the Silva killer. An All-American wrestler who had adapted to the submission game strongly. And while he was not Silvas equal as a standup fighter, he was very good n every aspect of the game. He was known for conditioning and confidence, both necessary against Silva. He was every bit the wrestler Sonnen was, but younger and better in every other aspect, with a stronger offensive submission game to boot.
The fight took place on 7/6 in the same MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Weidman won, but not with his wrestling leading to taking a five-round decision, but via knockout, standing.
In theory, a 29-year-old who has every attribute described to be the Achilles heel of the 38-year-old champion, then knocks him out in the second round to win the world championship, the rematch is only going to go worse, and would be expected to be the former champions swan song at the top.
Thats what makes this fight so fascinating. Because when you watch the first fight over again, no matter how many times Weidmans camp tells you differently, and how many times you watch the closing second, your eyes still say fluke.
Weidman did win the first round by the book, taking Silva down and keeping him there most of the round. But he lost control of him on a failed submission attempt, and when Silva got up, he was getting the better of things.
As the second round started, Silva was clowning around, mocking Weidman, and seemed to take him out of his game. Silvas speed seemed too much and Weidman seemed to have nothing there for the takedown that he needed to take the round, and survive the three rounds that would follow. But while clowning, mocking the lack of speed and power of his opponent, and pretending to be hurt but not, a punch caught Silva perfectly. His overselling was no longer selling. He was out. The fight was over. It was one of the most amazing and memorable moments in MMA history. The king was dead. A world of MMA fans ranged from being euphoric to being in disbelief.
Even though Weidman enters the cage with the belt, in the eyes of the public, hes still the challenger, and Silva is still the greatest fighter in the world. In the UFCs own media pound-for-pound rankings, Silva is No. 3 behind Jon Jones and Jose Aldo, while Weidman is No. 8. Its virtually unprecedented in such rankings even after the Georges St-Pierre and Matt Serra fluke, to have a top contender ranked above the champion, let alone the top contender ranked above the champion who had just knocked him out in the second round in both mens previous fight a few months earlier. Silva is the betting favorite, ranging from -152 to -185 at press time. But it is the closest odds for a Silva fight since he rose to prominence. At these odds, money is coming in pretty much evenly between the two, so its not like people see it as a mismatch.
Still, the match left more questions to Weidman than Silva. Weidman appeared tired in the second round. He himself admitted it, but couldnt exactly explain why. His one takedown attempt that round was futile and he was taking hard low kick and punch combinations. The taunting did seem to mentally get to Weidman, exactly as Silva figured it would. All the on-paper reasons why he was the living embodiment of Silva kryptonite were, in the early part of the second round, proving to be false. Until that split second when it turned out to be true.
Its a unique situation when a solid unquestioned knockout win gives you mostly evidence that the other guys will win the rematch.
But there is more to this story. Weidmans home was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy. He was living, he, his wife and their two children, mostly at his parents home in one room while the home was renovated. He also underwent shoulder surgery, and came back quickly since the title shot was offered that he couldnt wait for and had no intention of turning down. This was a guy who had risked his undefeated record to face Demian Maia as a late replacement, even though he would have to lose 32 pounds in just over a week.
Today, things are different. Hes now in a different financial league. Hes got a newer and bigger house. Nobody ever gives a straight answer as far as what injuries he may or may not have had, but hes not rushing back from surgery and his personal stress level is probably lower. But does this make him less hungry? Will he not be tired in round two this time?
Silva, on the other hand, has been concentrating on his takedown defense. Weidmans camp notes Silvas hands being kept low helped his takedown defense, but also opened him up for the punch that finished him, in explaining that what happened was exactly what they trained for and not a fluke. But to most others, Silva seemingly showed, despite the hype beforehand and the outcome afterwards, that Weidman is not fast enough to strike with him unless he gets careless, nor powerful enough to hurt him unless he doesnt see the punch coming.
There is another precedent historically on this. Weidmans coach and trainer, Serra, knocked out St-Pierre in the first round in 2007 in what is still the biggest title match upset in UFC history. Even though GSP was absolutely not clowning around, nobody bought that Serra was the best in the world. The odds werent as long as the first time, but Serra was still a decided underdog in the rematch, and got absolutely destroyed from start-to-finish in the match that really put GSP on the map as a mainstream sports star in Canada, earning him his first of three Canadian athlete of the year awards.
A win by Weidman, and Silva is still the greatest fighter of all-time. He just got old. But Weidman will erase any call of fluke, just as Serra couldnt. Just as Randy Couture erased the lucky decision in his first match with Pedro Rizzo, and just as a rematch erased any legitimacy of Vitor Belfort beating Couture to win the light heavyweight champion, even if the record book will tell you otherwise.
A win by Weidman is the final changing of the guard in UFC. The glory era of the UFCs murderers row of marketable world champions that set the all-time record for PPV buys in 2010, Brock Lesnar, Silva, GSP and B.J. Penn, would be completely over. For all the talk of what happens to boxing when Mayweather and Pacquiao are done, a Weidman win leaves UFC as the one run out of legitimate major drawing cards who can still pull big numbers going into 2014.
Whether Weidman can get there depends more on time and results. Just winning in dominant fashion almost every time out doesnt make you a big draw, as Jon Jones (keeps winning, numbers declining), Cain Velasquez (ditto) and Jose Aldo have all shown. Velasquez had a higher profile springboard in the sense his fight with Brock Lesnar was viewed by far more than Weidmans win, and was far more convincing. He also has an ethnic base that carries boxing almost completely, and supports wrestling at double the rate of any other ethnic group, and for those logical reasons MMA should be big with. But its really not.
Weidman doesnt have the charisma of B.J. Penn, nor the nationalistic appeal nor first generation created by TV superstar aura of a GSP. But he does have a quiet confidence in his voice. Every fighter and his coaching staff will tell you they can beat their opponent, but its often not convincing. Im not sure this one is either, but those who know Weidman, and he himself, talk with the conviction of people who truly believe they are better and cant wait to prove it a second time. Of course, they also may be out there convincing themselves, and coming up with reasons why what happened in the early part of round two that the rest of us saw really wasnt what we think it was.
And theres the other fight.
Its not a lock Rousey vs. Tate on its own would be the biggest drawing non-GSP fight of this year aside from the Silva-Weidman rematch, essentially beating 550,000 buys. But considering Rousey vs. unknown Liz Carmouche with no heat, nor grudge and it being Rouseys first PPV, did 450,000, then it would make sense this one would do a lot more. That also doesnt factor in all the variables, such as PPV overall being weaker since the Mayweather fight, and the move to FS 1 being problematic for building shows.
But its the strongest No. 2 fight on a show in years, dating back to GSP vs; Thiago Alves at UFC 100. Its also, very possibly, the single biggest woman combat sports bout in history.
While Christy Martin got all kinds of mainstream exposure, including a Sports Illustrated cover in 1996, she never advanced past the point of being an attraction in boxing. She was never the main event on a major show that drew big money, either live or on PPV. The lone attempt, after the release of the movie Million Dollar Baby, to do a Martin vs. Lucia Rijker PPV fight in 2005, when Martin was past her prime, fell apart because Rijker was injured in training. Ticket sales for the much-hyped fight were abysmal, and when Rijker healed up, there was no attempt to put it back together again.
A gimmick, where Laila Ali boxed Jacqi Frazier-Lyde in 2001 was a shockingly successful PPV event, doing 125,000 buys. But that wasnt really about womens boxing, and it was more about just how big the Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier rivalry was that their daughters, one of whom wasnt even a serious boxer, could be put in the ring and do business.
However, Gina Carano vs. Cris Cyborg in 2009 drew the largest crowd ever to see an MMA fight in San Jose that wasnt headlined by Frank Shamrock, and the 2.17 rating overall for the event on Showtime is its all-time MMA record, and 2.91 for the fight itself, and thats with the UFC putting a tape of UFC 100, which featured UFCs biggest money drawing fight in its history, the second Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir bout, on Spike, head-to-head against it to siphon away its number
Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche on 2/23 seemed far bigger mainstream with the UFC machine behind it. I dont think its even possible Carano vs. Cyborg would have done 450,000 buys on PPV at the time even if the fight coverage blew up in media (while working at Yahoo, the Carano vs. Cyborg interest level and hits for coverage beat a UFC show a week earlier that did almost 900,000 buys). Still, there is actual data to garner which was bigger on the day of the show in the U.S. On fight day, Carano on that day in 2009 was bigger than Rousey in 2013, by very little. But there was comparatively less interest in Cyborg (8% of Carano) to Carmouche (16% of Rousey), and for the fight itself, they were surprisingly even. When Rousey fought Tate for the first time, there was nowhere near the amount of interest as there was in Carano or Rousey for their bigger fights, but historically, one can say it was the most important, because that was the fight that got women into UFC. But in that fight, there was more interest in Tate than either Cyborg or Carmouche as the opponent, but as a combination, it did not have the interest of the other two fights.
However, if we look at interest levels one week before each fight, this fight has double the general public interest a week ahead of time as both of the other fights did. That doesnt mean it will skyrocket in the last few days, as both of those fights did, particularly since those fights were the focal point of tons of promotion and this is a semi-final where all of the advertising and the focus on the hype specials is on the other fight. But the key in both of the prior giant fights is they were all about one person. In this fight, Tate is far more of a star as Rouseys opponent than Cyborg or Carmouche were to the public. A week out, Rousey is well ahead of where she was before any prior fight.
But its a different Rousey. Is she now a heel? Does she draw as a heel what she did as a babyface? The heat is there like no womens MMA fight in history.
The fight could easily be promoted as the biggest womans fight of all-time, because a week out, when it comes to public interest, it is well ahead of any. But they may want to save that for a Rousey vs. Cyborg fight if they can put that together in 2014. Plus, as much as the public may have interest based on The Ultimate Fighter, the reality is still that Tate backdoored herself into this fight, and is coming off a loss to Cat Zingano. But arguments that is even relevant t the public would mean burying your head in the sand and having slept through much of the past year, most notably the GSP vs. Nick Diaz fight, one of the biggest in company history, and to a lesser extent, the Jones vs. Sonnen fight. One of Rouseys big lines this past week is the only reason Tate is even in this match is because shes got a nice ass and a rivalry with her, and how Tate owes her career to that fact. As catty as that sounds, there is truth in that statement.
The UFC lucked into something after Zingano tore her ACL just before filming of The Ultimate Fighter was scheduled to begin. While Tate was coming off a loss, the company was presented with a golden opportunity with the Zingano injury. They had the ability to take what had already been proven to be a great dynamic in the first fight, but make it far bigger since it was on the UFC stage. Instead of being an unknown Rousey first making her name, as was the case nearly two years ago, its an established star in Rousey, but with a very different fight dynamic.
However, winning is a different issue. Rousey ranges from a -675 to -1000 favorite, although with the long odds, most of the money at press time was coming in on Tate.
Rousey has fought ten times, seven as a pro, and three as an amateur. All ten have ended in first round armbars. Whether she believes it or not, Tate is pushing the idea that Rousey will be lost if she cant get the armbar, and shell be out of gas if the fight goes to the second round. Tate has gone long three times. She went into the fourth round when he beat Marloes Coenen to win the Strikeforce womens title, came from behind with a third round submission on Julie Kedzie, and was knocked out in the third round by Zingano in a fight she was winning until that point. Shes a good fighter, and a very legitimate former champion. But shes not a great fighter, and her calling card to the level of interest there is in her having been the only non-Rousey female to break out of the pack, is based largely on how she looks.
The interesting dynamic here, is that in the first fight, it appeared Tate was the one mentally breaking beforehand. Rousey came off more glib, and Tate and boyfriend Bryan Caraway were up way too late the night before the fight on Twitter. This time, it comes across like Tate is the one pushing Rouseys buttons.
Once again, you have to go back to the first fight. While Tate did get Rouseys back for an instant, Rousey had her in the armbar and hurt her early, but Tate didnt tap and escaped. A few minutes later, Rousey had her in it again, and hurt her a second time, and she did tap. Tates perception that her wrestling takedowns were stronger than Rouseys judo throws proved to be wrong. Tates perception that Rousey didnt deserve a title match, and was in there because of her mouth and her looks also proved to be wrong when she was clearly the superior fighter the first time out.
Still, if she can bait Rousey into a fist fight, she is far more experienced and will get Rousey out of her judo finishing game. Rousey is also coming off a year in fame and spotlight, and for a young person, that can weaken you as a fighter. Even more, shes coming off filming two major movies, and historically fighters coming off the movie life are sitting ducks for upsets.
Still, the gap between the two fighters was big nearly two years ago. Rousey was new to the game, and still way ahead. Whether the fame has brought her down as a fighter, or time has brought her up from where she as at that time, there was a big gap two years ago that Tate has to catch up on.
Another interesting question is of crowd reaction. In February, Rousey was like a rock star at the Honda Center in Anaheim. But she went from being the All-American blond haired pretty girl with an Olympic medal to a psycho bitch on TUF, from Mia Hamm to Tonya Harding. The expectation is that Tate will be the crowd favorite, Rousey this past week said that UFC has made her the heel because somebody has to be.
Does that strengthen or weaken her as a draw, or does it make no difference? When it comes to this show, its going to be all based on interpretation.
The show should have done 1 million buys. But with the last few shows being soft, most predictions are that it wont. If it doesnt, people will be happy to jump on the idea that Rousey was a one-hit wonder and a novelty act that people are tired of. If by some chance it does, Silva and Weidman are going to get the credit.
