When UFC 166 ended, it was a feeling of almost euphoria. The company had concluded one of the greatest shows in its history, and had one of the most exciting matches in its history before a sellout crowd in Houston, where they couldnt print enough tickets to meet the demand.
Reports were that in the third round of the Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez match, when Sanchez worked the crowd into a frenzy and then nearly won the fight, that it was the loudest reaction people in Houston could recall for a local sports event in town.
The show sold out the Toyota Center in Houston on 10/19 from the first weekend tickets were put on sale. Later, when more seats were opened up, UFC didnt even have to advertise the fact much, as theyd be gobbled up immediately. Dana White said they were turning down celebrities for comps by the end and noted they were trying to figure out what to do with Charles Barkley (who ended up at cage side). The show drew 17,238 fans for a $2.5 million gate. It was the third biggest gate in the history of the arena, trailing only the April 7, 2007 show (UFC 69; Anderson Silva vs. Travis Lutter, which did $2,817,200) and a Rolling Stones concert. UFC now has three of the five biggest gates in the arenas history.
But all isnt rosy. I dont want to do the gloom-and-doom speech because thats silly. UFC is the most profitable promotion of its kind on the scene. Its revenue is growing. They are still going to have their best year on PPV since the record setting 2010. They are making international inroads.
While the UFC show on 8/17 as the first prime time show on the first night of FS 1 couldnt have been better, by 9/4, a show from Brazil did shockingly bad numbers. Ultimate Fighter has had more talk than in years, the most DVR viewers since the record-breaking Kimbo season, and some strong replay numbers. But as a first-run property when it comes to viewers, it is only ahead of the disastrous Shane Carwin vs. Roy Nelson season.
Logically, the move to Fox Sports 1 as the home base for most of the companys shows on television was going to lead to growing pains. Getting a new station off the ground isnt easy, and the first night figures were clearly an aberration. The college football games on the schedule are doing, as a general rule, well under half of what the same caliber of game would do if it was on ESPN.
Similarly, the prelims for UFC 166, did a 0.49 rating and 628,000 viewers for the same show in the same time slot that had averaged 1.3 million viewers on FX, and even more than that on Spike. And this was a better caliber of prelims coming before what should have been a well above average in interest main show. Granted, the competition was tough, as the Tigers vs. Red Sox game that went head-to-head with the prelims had 8.56 million viewers, and there was also college football on ABC (5.87 million viewers) and ESPN (2.33 million). From an FS 1 perspective, anchored by hours of UFC coverage and college football, including No. 2 ranked Oregon in the late night game, 10/19 was the single highest rated full day in the history of the station.
But the prelims for the 8/31 show, which with the lightweight title at stake, was expected to be closer to a baseline level show of interest, was 809,000 viewers. For 9/21 with Jon Jones, it was 722,000, so this was a 13% drop. And yes, the competition was part of that drop. But this was also what should have been the biggest heavyweight fight of this era, the two best heavyweights in UFC history, the two standout heavyweights of the time, in their third and deciding match to determine who is the baddest man on the planet.
Its far too early to get an accurate PPV number, but the early trends are, at least to me, hugely disappointing. When Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson did far lower than any Jones show to date, it had the built in excuse of being one week after Mayweather vs. Alvarez. While the boxing/MMA crossover isnt that large, that event, when youre talking 2.2 million buys at $75 a head and the fight that everyone was talking about, that is the exception. Dana White has said that the number (which he wouldnt reveal) was better than he expected, but hes also a bigger boxing fan than most.
Various sources have pegged it as lower than the Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Timothy Bradley boxing match seven nights earlier. No national number has been released for that fight either. Like with Jones, this based on earliest samples, looks to be the lowest Velasquez main event. Thats saying something since his last fight was with Bigfoot Silva, who he had massacred a year earlier, and was on a show with a strong undercard.
Dos Santos had knocked Velasquez out once. Dos Santos told people he was overtrained and not himself for the rematch he lost, and was easily the second best heavyweight fighter in UFC history.
There is the argument that the boxing PPV drew a predominately Mexican-American audience, the same audience that Velasquez largely draws from. The idea that after getting together and spending money one week that getting people who as a general rule are not rich, to spend the next week would be difficult. But at the same time, if you have a main event people want to see, they are going to buy it. In addition, HBO replayed the Marquez vs. Bradley fight and had a very strong live main event in Ruslan Provodnikov vs. Mike Alvarado. That fight was expected to be a war and from most accounts, delivered. It was also a show geared strongly at the Mexican-American fan base, which went head-to-head.
Losing FX as a promotional platform for the Prime Time was big, and obviously the synergism of the Spike/UFC relationship when UFC was the prime property the station got behind and heavily promoted those type of shows was huge in hindsight. But they still did well this year with Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche promoted off Fuel, with far less penetration than FS 1, did remarkably well for GSP vs. Nick Diaz, and strong numbers for Jones vs. Chael Sonnen and Anderson Silva vs. Weidman, topping 500,000 as recently as July.
There was the feeling that September through December was going to be UFCs murderers row on PPV, with Jones, the companys No. 3 draw, with the biggest heavyweight fight of the era (granted, nobody expected anything close to Brock Lesnar numbers), followed by a show with top draw Georges St-Pierre against a real No. 1 contender in Johny Hendricks, and ending the year with what should be the biggest event since UFC 100 (Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva, Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate, Josh Barnett vs. Travis Browne).
The question becomes exactly what do we learn from this and what works and doesnt work in 2013. While UFC hasnt had a big draw under 170 pounds since B.J. Penn lost the lightweight title to Frankie Edgar, size seems less of an issue than ever. The heavyweights in boxing in the U.S. have no interest (yes, I know they are big in Germany and the Ukraine, but its the brothers, not the heavyweight division, as experts in Germany have told me the minute the Klitschkos are done, heavyweight boxing in Germany will be done as well). The light heavyweight division, the consistently best drawing division in UFC for the last 15 years, didnt do well last time out even with a dominant champion.
It is clearly more personality oriented than ever before. The first UFC on FS 1 was a huge success because of Chael Sonnens ability to talk up the fight. Jon Jones, as great a fighter as he is and as much guts under pressure as hes proven over the past 13 months, is a personality people dont like. And that becomes a big question going forward on Ronda Rousey, who followed a similar arch of being this dominant fighting figure who burst on the scene, won the championship, and then the public saw aspects of their personality that they didnt like.
Arguments have been made that GSP is bland, but you cant argue his numbers. GSP does work best with an antagonist, and hes been very lucky to have opponents like Matt Serra, Josh Koscheck, Dan Hardy and Nick Diaz, who were the perfect yin to his yang in creating the heel vs. face, for lack of a better term, dynamic that works. Thus far, we havent seen any signs of that antagonist persona in Johny Hendricks, but GSP also drew well (but not as well) with Carlos Condit, and the 20th anniversary show should be a good hook for late media interest.
Jones vs. Sonnen had a build that disappointed people and I think some expected it would do better numbers, but it was still Jones second best performance to date, and the Rashad Evans fight drew big because of its unique storyline. Most figured Sonnen had no chance, but people still bought it. I know why Anderson Silva vs. Weidman will draw big next time, but why it did this time seems to point to the idea the marketing of Weidman and the idea that the Silva streak could end worked. The problem is, you cant recreate nearly seven year world title runs (or GSP is running on five plus years) as a business concept to copy because while these super athletes who can dominate at that level will hopefully continue to come along, you cant create them as they create themselves.
Silva, as talented as he was and is, struggled as a draw for years. And I do believe that if Jones, or Velasquez, end up hitting the five year mark, whatever personality weaknesses they have may be overcome by the value of multi-years of success bringing them to legendary status.
Ultimately, UFC is still in the big fight business. And the championships are meaning less and less as time goes on. What is working is fighters with many year win streaks that people perceive are in some jeopardy; great talkers facing those types of fighters in title matches; and the old stand-by, the big personal grudge match, whether real or contrived, it doesnt matter.
Its become a real contradiction because those who talk the loudest want respect from the main events in the sport. Deep down, most fighters do respect their opponents and with few exceptions, dont like playing a character, or making up or exaggerating a grudge. Plus, in martial arts, or amateur wrestling, you are taught respect for your opponent and that you do your talking with your actions, not with your mouth. But the public is buying something different in 2013.
On the flip side, Melendez vs. Sanchez was one of the great fights in UFC history, and this ranked with UFC 116 (Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin; Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama and a killer undercard) and UFC 139 (Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua; Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le and a killer undercard) in the top tier among UFC shows historically.
Melendez, with his win, may have, and probably has shot past T.J. Grant as the guy who should face the 12/14 Anthony Pettis vs. Josh Thomson winner for the lightweight title. Melendez did a good job after beating Sanchez, in his post-match promo, of calling himself the uncrowned champion, stemming from the belief he beat Benson Henderson on 4/20 in a match that could have been judged either way.
Sanchez, who tried to ague that the fight should have been a draw (Melendez clearly won the first two rounds, and won much of the third until being knocked down late and he was in danger of losing at one point in the round), immediately asked for a rematch with Melendez, only in a five round fight, which would make for a viable TV main event. But for Melendez, the thing to do is wait for a title shot. If he wins the title, Sanchez would be an unlikely challenger. But the idea of a Melendez vs. Sanchez five round fight as a television main event down the line is viable.
Daniel Cormier beat Roy Nelson in a heavyweight bout. Weighing in at 224 pounds, probably his lightest natural weight since college, Cormier is moving to light heavyweight. An option discussed was putting him against Alexander Gustafsson early next year, with the winner getting the Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira winner. Id advocate Gustafsson and Cormier in separate singles with the idea of creating two future contenders out of them as opposed to eliminating one big one. The fly in the ointment is the most logical opponent for both, Phil Davis, has trained with both. Javier Mendez, the manager of Cormier, said Cormier wouldnt fight Davis. Davis told me he would fight Gustafsson because even though they are friends, its business, but I got the impression he meant hed be willing if Gustafsson was champion. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Gegard Mousasi are also possible opponents for both.
Velasquez dominated Dos Santos in a fight very similar to their previous bout. He closed the distance, and while Dos Santos takedown defense was better, as most of the fight was standing, Velasquezs superior conditioning and close range fighting won him every round before it was stopped, way late, in round five. Herb Dean nearly stopped the fight in the third round. Dos Santos said that he thought it was stopped in the second round and couldnt remember anything past that point, which speaks to the damage. He was covered in blood, but the officials didnt stop the fight. Dana White was critical of the doctors and Dos Santos corner for not stopping it earlier and the amount of punishment he took. Certainly, when Dos Santos left eye was swollen almost completely shut at the end of round four, there was no reason he should have been sent out for round five.
Velasquez, whose face was a mess, even in the dominant win, suffered an apparent jaw injury. He will next defend against Fabricio Werdum, although its way too early to determine when. In a perfect world, it would be 2/1 in Newark, NJ, but its doubtful hell be ready by that time.
There were two controversial decisions on the show. In the Sarah Kaufman vs. Jessica Eye fight, the first round could have gone either way (most had it for Eye, I had it for Kaufman). I thought Kaufman won the second round, although also close, and Kaufman clearly won the third. Eye winning wasnt outrageous, but judge Ruben Najera gave round three to Eye, which was not even debatable. That was the difference in Eye taking a 29-28, 28-29 and 29-28 split decision. Our poll had 55% for Kaufman, 38% for Eye and 7% even.
Similarly, and I thought even more obvious, had C.B. Dollaway, in his best showing as a fighter to date, beating Tim Boetsch in all three rounds. Dollaway was docked one point for two eye pokes, so I had it 29-27. The scores were 30-26 for Boesch, having him as won all three rounds, on two cards, while the other judge gave Dollaway all three rounds, as I did, making it 29-27 because of the foul. While Kaufman vs. Eye I thought could go either way because the first two rounds were close, my feeling was Dollaway clearly beat Boetsch, although rounds two and three were close. There was tremendous criticism of Najera and John Schorle for scoring all three rounds for Boetsch. Our poll was 41% for Dollaway and 41% for Boetsch and 19% having it a draw.
The two close fights were both action-packed, and along with Velasquez vs. Dos Santos, would have won fight of the night on most shows.
Dana White was also critical of referee Jay Stafin for late stoppages in the Adlan Amagov win over T.J. Waldburger and Gabriel Gonzaga win over Shawn Jordan. Waldburger took at least one or two hard punches before Stafin dove in to stop it, and had to be taken out on a stretcher. It was a very scary situation, but Waldburger was released from the hospital after being checked out and went out to dinner with friends. White said he thought Jordan took six punches too many before Stafin stopped it.