Dana White told Kevin Iole of Yahoo.com on 6/12 that the big change in the Ultimate Fighter reality show is that next season it will return to its prior taped format.
White said that season 16 of the show will begin taping in three weeks, although he did not mention who the coaches will be. The season, featuring 32 welterweight fighters who will be fighting for 16 spots in the house, will air on FX on Fridays at 10 p.m. starting in September.
White said that the live season, by far the lowest rated in history, led to an inability to develop storylines introducing the audience to the fighters.
Live was an issue in that it became less a reality show that finished with a fight, as a weekly fight show with a buildup to a fight between two guys the audience didnt really know. But I think the biggest problem was Friday night, which is going to be a tough night to draw for a show that relies so heavily on Males 18-49 for the bulk of its audience.
White told Iole that in his meeting with FX executives, they said to give them one more season on Fridays, and if the audience isnt up the level that he expects, they will move it in 2013 to Tuesday or Wednesday. That would be notable because FX averages a 1.2 rating in prime time, and actually significantly higher than that on Tuesday and Wednesday. Giving up an hour of programming on a strong night would be unlike how television usually operates, as rarely does a show declining in numbers on a bad night then get moved to a good night, and a major show of confidence long-term in UFC.
White said that even though the numbers were down, it was a smash hit for FX. FX claimed that TUF was the second most watched series on basic cable on Friday nights among men 18-34 and 18-49, behind only ESPN, which was broadcasting NBA basketball. The show greatly outperformed what FX was doing in 18-49s on Fridays last year. While I dont have 18-34 and 18-49 male rankings comparisons for the night as a whole, there is no way TUF was No. 2 on basic cable on Fridays in those demos, because of Smackdown, which we do have numbers for.
In Males 18-49, on 5/4, TUF did a 0.7 and Smackdown did a 1.0. On 5/11, TUF did a 0.7 and Smackdown did a 1.0. On 5/18, TUF did a 0.7 and Smackdown did a 1.2. On 5/25, TUF did an 0.7 and Smackdown did a 1.0. Smackdown often outrated NBA games, but since Smackdown drew so many more children than the NBA and UFC, the NBA games won the demo solidly most weeks.
For overall numbers, the discrepancy is far greater as Smackdown averaged a 1.84 rating and 2.67 million viewers in May. TUF averaged an 0.7 rating and 900,000 viewers. In the overall 18-49 demo, TUF never placed in the top 25 on any Friday in May. Smackdown was usually in 5th or 6th place.
Nevertheless, White claimed the perception that TUF wasnt doing well was because Spike TV leaked ratings to MMA web sites and presented them in a misleading way. He said the overall viewership was less on FX than Spike, but that was largely because of the switch of days. If youre asking me the prime reason for the decline, the major reason is the switch of days. But its not the only reason, because they started the season with 1.2 million viewers and ended with barely 800,000, and that decline factors out Friday, since the big number was on a Friday.
At the beginning of the season, they had to compete with Spike confusing the marketplace, and getting people used to watching on a new station, and the first week they also had to compete with Smackdown for one hour. Ten weeks later, none of that was the case. But the audience was still dropping most weeks. There are a number of reasons, and perhaps live is one of them (I personally liked it live, but it was also clear the lack of the hijinx in the house and storylines were hurting the ratings). I think another big one is that it has been so long since the show produced a breakout star. There was a feeling for the first several years that you were getting to see future stars develop before your eyes. In recent years, the feeling has been you are getting to see guys who will bounce around prelims and never go farther than that with rare exceptions.
White also said that Spike tried to create confusion in the marketplace by running reruns of old TUF episodes head-to-head. Thats true, they did, but those shows did poorly and many weeks Spike gave up on doing it and there was no such competition. In addition, after about the third week of bad ratings, if Spike even continued those shows (they did some weeks, not others), they completely stopped promoting them.
The comparison with Smackdown is because Chuck Saftler, the Executive Vice President of FX, in the article claimed the ratings of Ultimate Fighter were on par with Smackdown on Syfy, which has been an institution on Friday nights.
The official numbers for UFC 146 were 11,428 paid, 14,674 total in the building set up for 14,950, and a gate of $3,428,775.
The current plan for 11/17 in Montreal is GSP vs. Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks with the winner becoming the No. 1 contender. Of course Nick Diaz is still the fly in the ointment because if the next fight would take place after February, which it would, if GSP is still champion, the money is Diaz. If Condit wins, then he can face Kampmann or Hendricks while GSP faces Diaz.
The Ronda Rousey vs. Sarah Kaufman fight on 8/18 will be from San Diego.
The 6/23 show in Belo Horizonte, Brazil has sold 11,000 tickets for $1.25 million. There were requests, but not a ton, for refunds when Vitor Belfort got hurt. Its set up for 17,000 and with the comps and such there are about 4,000 tickets left. The 7/7 show in Las Vegas had a $3.8 million advance when it comes to tickets sold at ticket outlets. This doesnt include all the casino buys. But I checked and there were plenty of tickets left, not that there will be the day of the show. There were also tickets left late for the Pacquiao fight which would be the first time that was the case for one of his fights in a long time. It was scaled for $7 million for a real sellout, since its the most expensive scaled tickets ever for UFC with $1,200 ringside. But it may fall short of that, although it will be among the biggest gates in UFC history, and could still end up the second biggest ever. The Las Vegas record and second biggest (behind the Toronto Rogers Centre show) in history if $5,441,290 for UFC 100 in the same MGM Grand Garden Arena.
In the kayfabe is dead section, both Josh Koscheck and Faris Zahabi (head of Tri-Star gym) both talked about recent challenges that were made and how UFC was behind them. Koscheck had challenged B.J. Penn to a fight, although Koscheck up front said UFC had come to him with the fight. But he did say they asked him to make noise about it and you dont have to ask Koscheck twice when it comes to stuff like that. But Penn turned it down. Zahabi said UFC came to Rory MacDonald and asked him to challenge Penn. It seemed out of character for MacDonald, who was on Ariel Helwanis show issuing the challenge, and the tape and story were talked about the next day on UFC Tonight. By that time, Penn had already accepted. Why Penn accepted MacDonald and not Koscheck or Melendez, based on Penns reaction to the question, is that he saw a chance to fight someone from Tri-Star trained by Zahabi. MacDonald was on MMA Uncensored and outright said that before he issued the challenge, that Dana White had told him Penn wanted the fight and to issue the challenge. Craig Carton, who sometimes bothers me because he comes off as a fan who doesnt know what hes talking about on that show, is really great at doing interviews when it comes to breaking kayfabe because he doesnt care what he says. He puts guys in really uncomfortable positions and relentlessly hounds them about questions they dont want to answer. He was great at the end of the 6/6 show where he talked about Frank Mir on TRT, called him the liar of the week, showed a tape from the show where he was asked about using it and denied it, and then said how when he asked him the question on the show that we all knew he was.
MacDonald may or may not end being the next GSP when it comes to winning a championship in his career, but its night and day on the charisma. When GSP started he had something that broke him out of the pack and when he got on his hands and knees and did that Terry Funk interview the first time and begged for a title shot, he made himself into a superstar, and whenever you see him, or are around him, he has that aura of being somebody. MacDonald doesnt have that at all. MacDonald has also said that he would have rather fought Carlos Condit than Penn, given that his only career loss was to Condit. But that fight makes zero sense for UFC, as if MacDonald were to win, hed be interim champion. MacDonald and GSP are training partners and GSP is something of a mentor to MacDonald, and both have made it clear they will never fight the other. This makes booking difficult and I dont think MacDonald can cut to 155, and hed give up too much size at 185. Theres always been the talk with guys like Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck about fighting each other and such. UFC was able to manipulate Evans and Jones to go at it. But MacDonald and GSP is the first time youve got a champion and a guy who is really a fight or two away from where he could be top contender and the contender wont go for the title. At that point, how do you book him? Do you have him go against mid-level guys and hopefully he doesnt stumble and is ready when GSP loses? Do you pressure him into changing weight classes? Do you put him against the guys GSP just beat who are top guys? You cant put him against potential top contenders because then you are risking eliminating a title match. If Cain Velasquez wins the title, heavyweight could have the same issue with Daniel Cormier, but a lot more has to fall into place. Cormier has said hed consider 205 and if he can learn to be strict on his diet and make it in a healthy manner, he and Jon Jones is a potential big fight.
Roy Nelson a few weeks ago was talking about wanting to do pro wrestling again. Hes never done it before, but has expressed interest in doing it at different times over the past few years. Nelson, at one point when it appeared he was going to be forced out of UFC due to an issue of having signed a contract with Roy Jones Jr., and Jones Jr.s promotion threatening UFC, had contacted WWE about trying to get into the promotion. WWE didnt express much interest, as he doesnt exactly look like Vince likes wrestlers to look, plus Vince right now has the mentality, based on negotiating with some MMA fighters like Bob Sapp and others, that the fighters simply wont want to do the schedule required. TNA was interested in him but by that point things had been worked out with UFC, and White made it clear that he didnt want anyone in his promotion doing pro wrestling. Nelson talked about how King Mo is getting good money for doing both and hed like to do that as well. He also said that MMA is more entertainment than sport. Were in the entertainment business. As much as people would like to say its sport, its definitely entertainment. We handle it from both sides of the coin, from the sport aspect and the entertainment aspect. Youve got to have both because if were not doing solid ratings, were not going to be on TV. Its definitely entertainment. He was also ripping on Lesnar, saying he wanted to face Lesnar in WWE, saying that Lesnar was given an easy path to the championship and that if Lesnar is put in the UFC Hall of Fame (a controversial subject these days, since a lot of fans are vociferous he doesnt belong and then Randy Couture and Kenny Florian both were on UFC Tonight saying he does), he belongs in as well. Somehow I dont see his logic. Nelson also probably got the promotion mad when he estimated that 60% of his opponents were using performance enhancing drugs.
Jeff Curran, after first saying hed retire if he lost his last fight, then getting cut, is apparently contemplating moving down to 125 pounds and trying to work his way back into UFC, which doesnt have nearly the depth at that weight class at this point.
Mark Hunt is scheduled for knee surgery on 6/13. If he recovers quickly enough, they are trying to put together Hunt vs. Roy Nelson.
The big combat sports news of the week was that Manny Pacquiaos win streak was halted in a match with Timothy Bradley that must people thought Pacquiao dominated. Two of the three judges voted 7-5 in rounds for Bradley and the other had it for Pacquiao. This led to people calling for the heads of the Nevada State Athletic Commission, the judges, complaining that it was fixed because promoter Bob Arum and Pacquiao were having troubles and Bradley was an Arum fighter who he wasnt having trouble with. I didnt see the fight, but of the 51 major boxing reporters who scored the fight, 48 of them had it for Pacquiao. But it wasnt all 51, although I saw veteran reporters saying it was a worse decision than the Lennox Lewis vs. Evander Holyfield draw, which was the last big boxing match I can recall with his level of outrage at the judging. Keep in mind they came back and did bigger business with the rematch than they would have if the judges had given the first fight to Lewis, who clearly won it. And people then were talking about how its the death knell of boxing, like some are now. As a general rule, people get furious, but when the next big fight happens, itll draw and the long-term problems are whether new stars who can draw come along or can be made, and not bad judging. Every close decision no matter which way it goes ends up being labeled a robbery by somebody, but they are inherent and dont hurt the sport in the big picture. Of course, from almost all accounts, this wasnt even close and was a genuine robbery and when there is high stakes gambling and if its true that a lot of late money came in for Bradley, people are going to put two and two together whether or not they really add up to four here. Anything is possible, but Ive seen enough bad scorecards and promotions that flip out over them to know that in 99.9% of the cases, at least on the national stage (local stage is different, Japan is different, favoring local fighters absolutely happens in all sports) if a decision is bad its because the judge saw things differently. That could be the sign of a bad judge if it happens all the time. On a percentage basis, the really bad decisions are small, but they also do exist and will always exist. On the flip side, the November rematch will have tons more interest than the first fight, and the replay of this fight on HBO will draw much higher ratings than it otherwise would have. I dont think thats good for the sport as a whole because people see it as slimy and corrupt. The commissions do need to monitor judges who have been off the mark too often, and when HBO before the fight started brought up bad decisions by one of the judges, it does make you wonder about someone if they really have a bad track record being assigned to such a high profile fight. Another aspect is the HBO team and their scorer had it 11-1 for Pacquiao. Most writers had it closer, and Ive seen with UFC that the announcers do lead the viewers. Still, its not like almost anyone when the fight was over had even a question as to who won, and its almost a perfect storm when, if you have 51 writers and three judges, and of that group, only five believe Bradley won, but two of those five had the power of decision making. The odds of that are gigantic, which is why it almost never happens. Only the best and most astute judges should be doing the big fights and I dont know thats the case. People were pointing to the fact that two of the judges were older than 70, but Im sure there have been great judges at that age and lousy judges who were 35. Its not fair for me to say anything about it past that until seeing the fight. But I had thought a loss by either Mayweather or Pacquiao on the way to the big fight would take the edge off. But in this case, if Pacquiao wins the rematch, the Mayweather fight is as strong as ever. Some say the delay hurts it, but I dont buy that yet, as even if both men are not at their athletic prime, they are still in their star power prime. But theyve not made the match for long enough and there is a finite line and Id hate for us to look back and go the one fight that could have done 2.5 million or 3 million buys in this era never happened.