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Monitoring the situation in Iran

Unknown Soldier said:
Both reasons are true

We are trying to finally stop Iran from becoming a nuclear state, which would be catastropic because they would happily nuke Israel and then Israel would nuke them back and that would be the least terrible of possible outcomes even if other nations didn't get involved and start launching their nukes. Just a localized nuclear exchange would kill millions of people instantly, irradiate large sections of the Middle East, and scatter radioactive fallout over neighboring nations, Europe, and Russia

We are also trying to contain China, and being able to control and throttle their energy imports is a very important step towards that goal. This is especially true since we know Chairman Pooh has directed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. No one knows the actual state of PLA readiness for a full amphibious assault of the island but everyone knows that tanks, ships, and jets don't run on batteries. They run on petroleum, and if we control the petrol, we control China's ability to invade Taiwan

There's a lot of geopolitics going into the recent decisions to depose Maduro over in Venezuela and then attack Iran. Trump is trying to solve multiple problems here, Iran getting nukes is one but the other bigger one is China threatening to invade Taiwan in addition to trying to bully and dominate all of its neighbors in East Asia
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Ya, both reasons are good. Although you overestimate the fallout. Unless ground strikes or nuking power plants, most of the radiation is local. If China invades Taiwan, we will just cut off our supply of pure quartz. You can't make semiconductors without pure quartz. We're the only known source in the world. And ya, Venezuela was a chess move. And that would support the petro dollar motive more. And yes, the main motive is to curb China and the rise of AI. AI needs energy and lots of it. It's the new industrial revolution.
 
DrFigs said:
I don't think this was about oil barons. our invasion of Iran caused a supply chain disruption; prices to go up because of that, not because the oil companies are greedy. Though i guess American companies might benefit from the higher prices.
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"Oil prices" are based on the world market, not "refined fuel prices".

This just happens to be a reasonable excuse for an increase in fuel pricing for a change, rather than the usual "oil sheik farting" or "a refinery that has nothing whatsoever to do with this area has a mouse, so the workers had to jump up on tables".

And "North American" companies should benefit from higher prices.

Note that North American's themselves also benefit from higher "oil prices" indirectly, so it's not all bad.
 
EviLore said:
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I think that's a great decision. I would actually do it right at the beginning. But def put as much pressure on Iran. The only thing is they really don't give a fuck about losing money, it's really about keeping their power. So we'll see. The blockade Israel did with Hamas at the begining of the war helped release some hostages because we really choke them.
 
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ADiTAR said:
I think that's a great decision. I would actually do it right at the beginning. But def put as much pressure on Iran. The only thing is they really don't give a fuck about losing money, it's really about keeping their power. So we'll see. The blockade Israel did with Hamas at the begining of the war helped release some hostages because we really choke them.
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It would not have worked in the beginning because Iran had fleet, more drones and missiles.
 
daffyduck said:
"Oil prices" are based on the world market, not "refined fuel prices".

This just happens to be a reasonable excuse for an increase in fuel pricing for a change, rather than the usual "oil sheik farting" or "a refinery that has nothing whatsoever to do with this area has a mouse, so the workers had to jump up on tables".

And "North American" companies should benefit from higher prices.

Note that North American's themselves also benefit from higher "oil prices" indirectly, so it's not all bad.
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No end users in North America benefits from diesel prices at $5+ a gallon and rising.
 
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Baemono said:
Can someone explain me like I'm 5 why he want the straight to be close ?
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He wants it to be open to all. It is currently closed to all except shipping approved by Iran. He is hoping by also shutting down the Iranian-approved shipping that Iran will choose 'open to all' over 'closed to all'.

The downsides are it will reduce the global oil supply by a further ~1%, and we might have to find more room at the bottom of the ocean for the Chinese navy if they decide to FAFO.
 
Gamerfan81 said:
Wow, this sure is getting interesting.

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edit: nvm - seems to be fine now

For those who can't watch the video, it's not actually a video of him speaking. Just his picture with dramatic music in the background :/

I'll have to wait for a better source.
 
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EviLore said:
Admiral Dong doesn't have a navy that can project any power to the strait.
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But he does have power in other areas. This is one of the "falling dominoes" pathways that leads us to WW3. It's starting to require more and more people/countries to show restraint to not suck in everyone, and sooner or later another leader will not do so.
 
Please lets keep the focus on Iran war and ignore the bait. It's literally why he posted that.

edit: to be clear I was pointing toward what was "truthed" and the ensuing questioning/distraction.
 
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Vestal said:
Which is why I hope all of this was pre calculated prior to issuing the blockade. Hopefully we had conversations with China before we closed it.
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Well we all know the end game is China, and it's really hard to believe the administration has not thought about it - as it all makes sense if you put China in the background.
And since China is pretty much only country which buys Iranian Oil (like 80-90% of it) - so the blockade is a direct standing up against China and their money floating Iranian economy any further.
 
lachesis said:
Well we all know the end game is China, and it's really hard to believe the administration has not thought about it - as it all makes sense if you put China in the background.
And since China is pretty much only country which buys Iranian Oil (like 80-90% of it) - so the blockade is a direct standing up against China and their money floating Iranian economy any further.
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That didn't appear to be the intention from the onset of this whole ordeal though. So I truly have to question just how much forethought was given to it.
 
lachesis said:
Well we all know the end game is China, and it's really hard to believe the administration has not thought about it - as it all makes sense if you put China in the background.
And since China is pretty much only country which buys Iranian Oil (like 80-90% of it) - so the blockade is a direct standing up against China and their money floating Iranian economy any further.
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The main challenge is to force China to act. China usually does not do anything - due to its philosophy - so unliike Venezuela this is a sticking point due to Iran being a big supplier to SEA. And as Iran has been chinese ally, most of the region (behind the scenes) are probably telling China to do something. This time it seems China is clearly acting in some form. It is not like with Russia where it could pretend that it is not involved and just use proxies like NK to do something. With Iran they might be trying to do something using Pakistan, but Pakistan has a special relationship with Saudi Arabia (that puts it in an awkward position due to iranian strikes) and India (who is a rival to China in a certain way).

That's why iranian attacks on the Gulf states were so strange. I guess it is commonly accepted that it was due to Iran trying to force them to stop USA. At the same time it created an odd situation for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Iran also alienated their piggybank Qatar and their main contraband provider UAE. UAE by itself has issues with Saudi Arabia and Qatar seems to be trying to side with Europe now (as it has no proper allies in the region anymore). It is a huge mess because it kinda create tensions for Turkey as Iran used to be a boogeyman and its gradual weakening, while still being a threat was beneficial for Turkey as it was slowly creeping in into the region while maintaining the stability, hiding behind the shadow of weakened Iran. But Iranian attacks on other countries created this mess. If it played out like 12 day war, the situation would be different. I think nobody expected Iran to attack other nations.
 
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Baemono said:
Yeah, it's funny but this is how we got the thread locked the first time
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I wasn't here when the Thread was locked, nor have I been involved in getting the threat locked. You can get a little off the Iran topic with Trump, because Trump is part of the news on Iran. Getting a DoorDash of McDonalds when you are in the middle of Iranian negotiations is part of the Iran issue. And continues to matter in IRAN. It is also unbelievably surreal.
 
AJUMP23 said:
I wasn't here when the Thread was locked, nor have I been involved in getting the threat locked. You can get a little off the Iran topic with Trump, because Trump is part of the news on Iran. Getting a DoorDash of McDonalds when you are in the middle of Iranian negotiations is part of the Iran issue. And continues to matter in IRAN. It is also unbelievably surreal.
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I get your point here. It is all correlated and he is using those issues and or comments to distract from Iran. But we have been given very little rope when it comes to comments and/or discussion around "him" and his antics as it deviates from the main discussion of the war.

So everyone is trying to navigate this as carefully as possible so we keep this discussion going.
 
AJUMP23 said:
I wasn't here when the Thread was locked, nor have I been involved in getting the threat locked. You can get a little off the Iran topic with Trump, because Trump is part of the news on Iran. Getting a DoorDash of McDonalds when you are in the middle of Iranian negotiations is part of the Iran issue. And continues to matter in IRAN. It is also unbelievably surreal.
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I didn't particularly care if the thread was locked because it got so completely off topic by the end but you complained about it in the other thread and then you come in here and do this. I'll have zero sympathy if you get the thread locked doing exactly what got it locked previously
 
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I wish these twitter posts would put a link if available. I don't watch news channels so there's no way to know when this was said.
 
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