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[efyu_lemonardo]

And another thing. I get he's looking out for Israeli interests. I wish American politicians would look out for American interests too.

Let's talk about those, then.

Iran supplies Russia and China with arms and oil, respectively.

Iran destabilizes the middle east through its proxies in Lebanon and Syria, Gaza and the West Bank, Yemen, and others.

Iranian relations with the Sunni Gulf countries is a constant source of tension in the region.

Most or all of these have a direct effect on globally significant trade routes, and on oil prices.

There is still a discussion to be had even if you ignore Israel, ignore the Palestinian question and ignore the horrendous human rights violations by the IRGC.

 

[calico]

This is directly related to your question on military action making us safer.

I was asking you about this military action, not other military action.

If however we accept your implication that some previous military action not making us safer is determinative that the current military action won't make us safer, should we apply this standard to all future scenarios where offensive military action is considered as a possibility to address a threat? Do we then rule out any offensive military action in future entirely on this basis?

If we are not ruling it out entirely in the future, but will instead judge those situations on their merits, is that not what we should be doing now instead of defaulting to an argument of 'well it didn't make us safer last time, sooo...'? That seems like an asinine position to default to imo, and an inherently dangerous one.

Some are talking about crying wolf, which may be a fair observation of 'the boy', but the lesson of The Boy Who Cried Wolf from the perspective of the villagers is that the boy lying about the wolf previously does not mean there will never be a wolf. The lesson is imposed upon them when -in response to the boy's lying- they adopt a policy of assuming that there will never be a wolf, and then a wolf comes and devours their sheep.

 

[cripterion]

To be fair, what do you expect him to do? After the recent developments in EU and in the world, it has become apparent that EU does not have much power and within EU there is a fracture too. The german prime mininster has become especially humble after his trip to China. And depending what will happen in Iran, the whole South Asia region power balance will change too.

Better to say nothing than to come up with some nonsense just to back up and lick Trump's boot. But yeah I agree with you about the EU.

 

[Rentahamster]

I was asking you about this military action, not other military action.

If however we accept your implication that some previous military action not making us safer is determinative that the current military action won't make us safer, should we apply this standard to all future scenarios where offensive military action is considered as a possibility to address a threat? Do we then rule out any offensive military action in future entirely on this basis?

If we are not ruling it out entirely in the future, but will instead judge those situations on their merits, is that not what we should be doing now instead of defaulting to an argument of 'well it didn't make us safer last time, sooo...'? That seems like an asinine position to default to imo, and an inherently dangerous one.

Some are talking about crying wolf, which may be a fair observation of 'the boy', but the lesson of The Boy Who Cried Wolf from the perspective of the villagers is that the boy lying about the wolf previously does not mean there will never be a wolf. The lesson is imposed upon them when -in response to the boy's lying- they adopt a policy of assuming that there will never be a wolf, and then a wolf comes and devours their sheep.

I made a simple statement with a simple thesis.

Are you safer now due to the 25 year old War on Terror? No. No you are not. Your freedoms are fucked. Your privacy is fucked. The war has drained our treasury when it could have invested in our future.

Do you think you are safer or not?

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Better to say nothing than to come up with some nonsense just to back up and lick Trump's boot. But yeah I agree with you about the EU.

Germany has to take a side. The era of false bravado is ending. It also demonstrates the true divide within EU on multiple levels.

The whole Iranian war essentially a very revealing event. Of course it depends on how it ends, but even the Desert Storm was not as revealing as the current iranian conflict. And it is not about the military power like the Desert Storm was.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

I made a simple statement with a simple thesis.



Do you think you are safer or not?

Can we all agree that the Bush Jr. administration was monumentally reckless and criminally stupid in how it reacted to 9/11?
And that in doing so it basically proved that Bin Laden's strategy to destabilize the west, through primarily psychological warfare, was astonishingly effective?

Can we move past that, to the present?

 

[Ipsi]

 

[calico]

Do you think you are safer or not?

If we assume for sake of argument you are right and that the answer is 'no', what are we supposed to do with that conclusion?

'Some previous military action did not make us safer therefore...' therefore what? What lesson are you suggesting we take from that and apply now and in the future?

 

[Unknown?]

Wow, so I come into this thread and either people are arguing over semantics with Islam, or somehow Somali fraud with Sofia security in the IS is relevant to the war (sorry - special military operation) with Iran.

I think it is really difficult for people to understand you have elected a sociopath that exposed how little democratic locks and controls mean if you plan to dismantle them that just plunged a country into a second conflict in two months because…he wants to. And nobody in your quasi-monarchy system can or wants to stop him.

We're used to it, been going on for decades now.

But it's definitely not what voters voted for.

 

[AJUMP23]

The surveillance state.



Next level trolling

 

[NickFire]

Wow, so I come into this thread and either people are arguing over semantics with Islam, or somehow Somali fraud with Sofia security in the IS is relevant to the war (sorry - special military operation) with Iran.

I think it is really difficult for people to understand you have elected a sociopath that exposed how little democratic locks and controls mean if you plan to dismantle them that just plunged a country into a second conflict in two months because…he wants to. And nobody in your quasi-monarchy system can or wants to stop him.

Cool story bro. Have you considered that maybe people don't need to understand anything because they knew what they were voting for?

 

[Jaybe]

Good press conference by Hegseth and Caine. As Iran's capabilities continue to be destroyed, day by day will be safer. A neutered Iran will be a good thing for the region and the world.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Cool story bro. Have you considered that maybe people don't need to understand anything because they knew what they were voting for?

It's almost as if one president, for all his many faults, is intuitively more fluent in the language of the middle east - psychological intimidation - than the other.

 

[Jaybe]

Wow, so I come into this thread and either people are arguing over semantics with Islam, or somehow Somali fraud with Sofia security in the IS is relevant to the war (sorry - special military operation) with Iran.

I think it is really difficult for people to understand you have elected a sociopath that exposed how little democratic locks and controls mean if you plan to dismantle them that just plunged a country into a second conflict in two months because…he wants to. And nobody in your quasi-monarchy system can or wants to stop him.

I can't take someone from France's perspective on war seriously. I bet you think Iran would nicely give up its nuclear ambitions if we all just talked more.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

I can't take someone from France's perspective on war seriously. I bet you think Iran would nicely give up its nuclear ambitions if we all just talked more.

The most hilarious thing is that Macron is constantly trying to copy Trump with everything

 

[ADiTAR]

Good press conference by Hegseth and Caine. As Iran's capabilities continue to be destroyed, day by day will be safer. A neutered Iran will be a good thing for the region and the world.

Is there a link?

 

[Forsete]

I wonder how Erdogan will react if/when the Kurds are armed and start attacking the Iranian regime?

He likes to bomb them wherever they are around .

 

[Zacfoldor]

Good press conference by Hegseth and Caine. As Iran's capabilities continue to be destroyed, day by day will be safer. A neutered Iran will be a good thing for the region and the world.

The Hegseth presser this morning had to be demoralizing to anyone trying to fight back. I mean that was some speech.

Then showing the torpedo sinking the ship and saying it was the first torpedo since wwII to sink a ship. The whole section about controlling the skies. It was something.

 

[calico]

It would be interesting to see what would have happened if the relocation from bases in Spain had caused a serious operational problem rather than just a relatively minor shift in operations, but perhaps Spain wouldn't have forced the issue in this case.

 

[Jaybe]

Is there a link?

Here you go. It starts around the 16 min mark if my time stamp doesn't work.

 

[Ipsi]

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Holy shit, that torpedo strike is a sight to behold. Crazy seeing that whole ship warp and buckle like that.

 

[MisterFalcon]

Several ships have been torpedoed since WW2. The General Belgrano, that South Korean frigate , INS Khukri

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Here you go. It starts around the 16 min mark if my time stamp doesn't work.

Watched ten minutes (16:00-26:00 more or less) and this is what a statement looks like when it's directed at the enemy, as it should be, rather than at the press. Well done.

 

[kruis]

I wonder how Erdogan will react if/when the Kurds are armed and start attacking the Iranian regime?

He likes to bomb them wherever they are around .

There could be a surprise twist: Turkey and Azerbaijan invade the north west of Iran to capture the part where the majority of the population are Kurds and Azerbaijanis in order to connect their countries' borders together. Now Azerbaijan is dependent on a corridor through Armenia to reach its Nakhchivan enclave. That problem could be solved by grabbing Iran's Azerbaijani provinces. There's no better time than now with Iran's military getting pounded by the US and Israel.

The only question is whether ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran would welcome such a takeover since they've been so "Persianized". The current president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is half Kurdish/half Azerbaiani and considers himself a Turk. But it's one thing to be in favor of the teaching/the use of regional languages inside of Iran, another it's quite another thing to accept the breakup of Iran.

Azerbaijan (Iran) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DeepEnigma]

And another thing. I get he's looking out for Israeli interests. I wish American politicians would look out for American interests too.

Tell that to the entire party that did not stand (except for Fetterman) in TSotU when pressed with that very notion.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

There could be a surprise twist: Turkey and Azerbaijan invade the north west of Iran to capture the part where the majority of the population are Kurds and Azerbaijanis in order to connect their countries' borders together. Now Azerbaijan is dependent on a corridor through Armenia to reach its Nakhchivan enclave. That problem could be solved by grabbing Iran's Azerbaijani provinces. There's no better time than now with Iran's military getting pounded by the US and Israel.

The only question is whether ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran would welcome such a takeover since they've been so "Persianized". The current president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is half Kurdish/half Azerbaiani and considers himself a Turk. But it's one thing to be in favor of the teaching/the use of regional languages inside of Iran, another it's quite another thing to accept the breakup of Iran.

Azerbaijan (Iran) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Potental hotspots for now are these basically


Maybe somebody else will join the fray (from Iraq side) or Afghanistan. That's why it is crucial for iranians to arm themselves up. Pahlavi should be working overtime now, instead of giving press conferences and videos.

Personally I hope USA will find a way to gain access to the Caspian Sea. Would be a game changer.

 

[kruis]

Potental hotspots for now are these basically


Maybe somebody else will join the fray (from Iraq side) or Afghanistan. That's why it is crucial for iranians to arm themselves up. Pahlavi should be working overtime now, instead of giving press conferences and videos.

Personally I hope USA will find a way to gain access to the Caspian Sea. Would be a game changer.

If Iranian Balochistan would revolt, I believe that Pakistan would want to do something about that since that could lead to huge problems in Pakistani Balochistan.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

If Iranian Balochistan would revolt, I believe that Pakistan would want to do something about that since that could lead to huge problems in Pakistani Balochistan.

Potentially. It is possible that Pakistan could use this as an opportunity to push - expel - those people towards Baluchistan.

 

[Forsete]

Iran launched a ballistic missile towards Turkey I just read. Not a brilliant move.

 

[jason10mm]

Iran launched a ballistic missile towards Turkey I just read. Not a brilliant move.

I wonder what the endgame is here for Iran. Scare the surrounding countries enough so they refuse to work with the US and Israel? Trigger internal revolts/uprisings in those countries to destabilize them? Fuck it all, bring on Ragnarok? Intimidate their own citizens that Iran "still has it"?

If Iran really has sponsored hundreds/thousands of islamic terror cells across the west, now would be the time to use them, I suppose. Not sure the Austin club shooter would count, though he was clearly pro-iran/islam, but I don't think he was part of an organized cell.

 

[jason10mm]

Potentially. It is possible that Pakistan could use this as an opportunity to push - expel - those people towards Baluchistan.

In the long run, I'm not sure this isn't a good move. The national borders of these places are often at odds with the tribal/ethnic distributions (deliberately so, perhaps) and some sort of re-alignment, whether it be new borders/countries or movement of peoples, probably needs to happen to ensure future stability and progress. "Diversity is our strength" is so clearly a lie at a national level.

 

[AJUMP23]

The idea of engaging in modern sub warfare is amazing and terrifying. 80 years since the last sub battle took place. Insane stuff going on in the world.

 

[Solarstrike]

delete

 

[winjer]

I wonder what the endgame is here for Iran. Scare the surrounding countries enough so they refuse to work with the US and Israel? Trigger internal revolts/uprisings in those countries to destabilize them? Fuck it all, bring on Ragnarok? Intimidate their own citizens that Iran "still has it"?

If Iran really has sponsored hundreds/thousands of islamic terror cells across the west, now would be the time to use them, I suppose. Not sure the Austin club shooter would count, though he was clearly pro-iran/islam, but I don't think he was part of an organized cell.

Destabilize the world economy, as to pressure the USA to stop the attack.
But it's a huge gamble that is very unlikely to succeed.
Also, the last ditch effort of a losing death cult.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

In the long run, I'm not sure this isn't a good move. The national borders of these places are often at odds with the tribal/ethnic distributions (deliberately so, perhaps) and some sort of re-alignment, whether it be new borders/countries or movement of peoples, probably needs to happen to ensure future stability and progress. "Diversity is our strength" is so clearly a lie at a national level.

Pakistan is a patchwork by itself so...It also remains to be see what is going to happen between Pakistan and Afghanistan. All that area is a huge mess.

 

[ADiTAR]

Israeli fighter jet downed an Iranian one.

היסטוריה בשמי טהרן: F-35 ישראלי הפיל מטוס איראני

לראשונה בעולם הפיל F-35 מטוס מאויש - וזו גם ההפלה הראשונה זה יותר מ-40 שנה בחיל האוויר של מטוס שכזה: יאק-130 איראני עלה לאוויר באזור שבו היו מטוסים ישראליים, זוהה והופל. "הם כנראה היו בתחושת הצלחה אחרי שתקפו מדינות במפרץ"

www.ynet.co.il

 

[poppabk]

One of the more interesting things to realize is that throughout human history, there were never any "political" objectives to war. The purpose of war was simply to defeat your opponent. Invented objectives for after the war ends is strictly a 20th century phenomenon after the end of WW2. And that lead to every disastrous war the US started afterwards, including the boondoggles of occupying Iraq and Afghanistan

The only objective of this Iran war is to crush the Islamic Republic and prevent them from getting nukes or threatening their neighbors and Israel ever again. The rest is up to the Iranian people to sort out after, just like before in human history

This isn't true. The political objective in most wars was conquest, complete subjugation of the territory and access to their resources.
This changed in the 20th century as the world became connected, resources became more ephemeral and finance replaced war for the most part.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

Potentially. It is possible that Pakistan could use this as an opportunity to push - expel - those people towards Baluchistan.

Or they conduct their own operation to wipe out the armed Balochis in Iran. Same with the Turks in Kurdistan. Arming these groups is the recipe for another regional quagmire.

 

[Hari Seldon]

The idea of engaging in modern sub warfare is amazing and terrifying. 80 years since the last sub battle took place. Insane stuff going on in the world.

Fun fact, there has never been a sub vs sub battle in the history of warfare.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Destabilize the world economy, as to pressure the USA to stop the attack.
But it's a huge gamble that is very unlikely to succeed.
Also, the last ditch effort of a losing death cult.

They're basically counting on the radical left in the west to panic and try and reign in the right. But doesn't Trump have the support of both houses of congress if he needs it?

 

[jason10mm]

Fun fact, there has never been a sub vs sub battle in the history of warfare.

that you know of....

 

[winjer]

They're basically counting on the radical left in the west to panic and try and reign in the right. But doesn't Trump have the support of both houses of congress if he needs it?

Not the American politics and public.
The cut of the straight of Ormuz will affect mostly the Middle East, Asia and Europe.

 

[Idleyes]

Fun fact, there has never been a sub vs sub battle in the history of warfare.

The word never and humans never work well together.

 

[calico]

Subs have killed other subs before, and enemy ships have been sunk by subs since WW2, but both things are very rare.

They're basically counting on the radical left in the west to panic and try and reign in the right. But doesn't Trump have the support of both houses of congress if he needs it?

The bar for Congress to rein in a President's use of the military is very high. Realistically, electoral concerns (in response to the economy being fucked by the war, if that were to happen) would force a reconsideration long before the bar was reached in Congress imo.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Not the American politics and public.
The cut of the straight of Ormuz will affect mostly the Middle East, Asia and Europe.

Except the Hormuz threat is basically a death sentence to the iranian regime. It is the kind of threat you can use only once. Even the Gulf countries will be hostile. Basically everybody will be hostile.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

I can't take someone from France's perspective on war seriously. I bet you think Iran would nicely give up its nuclear ambitions if we all just talked more.

I never understood why US had such a beef with Iran of all places, but if you consider Israel is its sworn enemy, and American politicians overwhelmingly treat Israel as a promised land in your childish understanding of Christian religion - congrats , you just plunged another region into total mess because old fucks you elect are high on Messianism cool aid.

 

[winjer]

Except the Hormuz threat is basically a death sentence to the iranian regime. It is the kind of threat you can use only once. Even the Gulf countries will be hostile. Basically everybody will be hostile.

That is why one of the first targets was the Iranian navy.
But Iran can still shoot some drones and missiles from the shore. And that is why 80% of ships left the straight of Ormuz.

 

[Forsete]

Didn't North Korea sink a South Korean Navy ship not that long ago?

Also the UK sunk the Argentine ship General Belgrano during the Falklands War.

 

[AJUMP23]

Fun fact, there has never been a sub vs sub battle in the history of warfare.

There was this

The only time a submarine has ever been known for successfully hunting down and destroying an enemy submarine while underwater was in February 1945, with the destruction of the U-864, a German Type IX U-boat off the coast of Norway by a Royal Navy sub.