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[winjer]

What does lost the war mean here exactly?
Because the same government is still in power.

Edit: Also funny how people flip flop between '' it's a war '' and '' it's a special military operation ''.
If it's a war then he should've gotten approval from congress that's why they try and paint up this image that it's not a war even tho they're too stupid to stick to it and let it slip and call it a war themselves.

This whole idea tho that the US has won the war already is just repeating the same mistakes of the past, if you actually want to win here it's going to be a very long war and involve ground troops.
Which I doubt there's any actual appetite for.

What power? They are like rats running in panic.
When they tried to elect a new leader, the whole bunch got blown up to smithereens.

 

[Idleyes]

Did you read about the intelligence regarding Khamenai that led to his successful assassination? That was an opportunity that required acting upon immediately or it would have been lost. The decision was made to act on it.

It's almost like everyone got primed by the "baby Hitler" question at some point in their life, so when the moment came, they already felt like there was only one acceptable answer.

 

[Svalr93]

What power? They are like rats running in panic.
When they tried to elect a new leader, the whole bunch got blown up to smithereens.

Are you being obtuse, the same government is still running the country.
The Ayatollah was over 80 years old they had been planning for his death since forever, again what does '' win the war '' mean here?
Does win the war just mean blowing up some people in charge?
That's not how you win a war this isn't the medieval ages where you just kill the king and win.
If a foreign nation assassinated Trump and a bunch of generals that wouldn't mean that they had won a war against the US.

The US isn't in control of the country and there isn't some new US-friendly Democracy in power in Iran right now.
I think people don't want to confront this because they don't want to acknowledge that actually winning would necessitate a ground invasion.

 

[winjer]

Are you being obtuse, the same government is still running the country.
The Ayatollah was over 80 years old they had been planning for his death since forever, again what does '' win the war '' mean here?
Does win the war just mean blowing up some people in charge?
That's not how you win a war this isn't the medieval ages where you just kill the king and win.
If a foreign nation assassinated Trump and a bunch of generals that wouldn't mean that they had won a war against the US.

The US isn't in control of the country and there isn't some new US-friendly Democracy in power in Iran right now.
I think people don't want to confront this because they don't want to acknowledge that actually winning would necessitate a ground invasion.

The top leaders of the Iranian government and military are dead.
What you have now is a bunch of disconnected cells.
Getting killed is not what anyone a functioning government in power.

 

[DeepEnigma]

It's... it's been 4 days.

 

[NickFire]

Are you being obtuse, the same government is still running the country.
The Ayatollah was over 80 years old they had been planning for his death since forever, again what does '' win the war '' mean here?
Does win the war just mean blowing up some people in charge?
That's not how you win a war this isn't the medieval ages where you just kill the king and win.
If a foreign nation assassinated Trump and a bunch of generals that wouldn't mean that they had won a war against the US.

The US isn't in control of the country and there isn't some new US-friendly Democracy in power in Iran right now.
I think people don't want to confront this because they don't want to acknowledge that actually winning would necessitate a ground invasion.

I will not say you're completely off base. But do you think maybe you're being a little obtuse as well?

US / Israel is dismantling their entire navy and air force. Whoever was waiting in the wings for the 80 year old to die is getting gang banged by 70 virgin rottweilers, in hell, as we type. Those next in line? Gone as well.

Comparing what was accomplished so far to taking out just a single guy and some generals is definitely being obtuse in my opinion.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I remember arguing with somebody regarding Mauritius

Lmao Keir Starmer just keeps fucking up daily. He needs to resign. He's the worst British PM since Neville Chamberlain

 

[0neAnd0nly]

Are you being obtuse, the same government is still running the country.
The Ayatollah was over 80 years old they had been planning for his death since forever, again what does '' win the war '' mean here?
Does win the war just mean blowing up some people in charge?
That's not how you win a war this isn't the medieval ages where you just kill the king and win.
If a foreign nation assassinated Trump and a bunch of generals that wouldn't mean that they had won a war against the US.

The US isn't in control of the country and there isn't some new US-friendly Democracy in power in Iran right now.
I think people don't want to confront this because they don't want to acknowledge that actually winning would necessitate a ground invasion.

I'm going to wager that the US, Israel, and other allies who may or may not be publicly involved have an idea of what to do / have plans in place.

I think that's a likelier possibility than neogaf user Svalr93 has outsmarted them.

Call me optimistic.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

It's almost like everyone got primed by the "baby Hitler" question at some point in their life, so when the moment came, they already felt like there was only one acceptable answer.

No. That's not it at all.

 

[falconhoof]

Interesting review of the downed F-15Es.

The TLDR is that they look like they were hit by air-to-air and not ground-to-air Patriot missiles.

 

[Idleyes]

No. That's not it at all.

Well that's not very helpful. Care to tell me what it is?

 

[near]

Honestly tho why should any Europeans help the US here when the US was threatening to invade Greenland a few weeks ago and is continuing with its aggression towards Europe?

Also no one should trust anything that comes out of Leavitt's mouth this admin are a bunch of chronic liars and will just say that there has been a deal struck when in reality nothing has happened or changed.
Maybe they have maybe they haven't but Leavitt isn't exactly a trustworthy source.

Also per usual Trump with the trade war threats, can't get anything done without threatening people.
Then people wonder why European and US relations are becoming increasingly worse.

Our militaries and security structures a fundamentally intertwined. Ignoring that during what could still turn into a catastrophic conflict would be pretty fucking stupid. The US is still the iron brute behind a lot of our (UK) defence posture, whether people like admitting it or not.

Iran has already struck a UK base in Cyprus, so at this point, it is not some distant geopolitical debate, it's very much our problem too.

The Greenland issue is a separate matter entirely. It hasn't escalated into anything really, and it shouldn't really factor into how European countries respond to a war involving Iran. Conflating the two is just silly imo.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Interesting review of the downed F-15Es.

The TLDR is that they look like they were hit by air-to-air and not ground-to-air Patriot missiles.

This below was reported,

 

[TransTrender]

Buh buh buh it was a peaceful fishing frigate!!

Also in the video you can see the keel break in the IR when you see the warm gooey insides of the ship versus the cold hull. It was already rapidly sinking in that clip and probably went under in less than a minute.

 

[falconhoof]

This below was reported,

Good to know. Earlier reporting stated surface to air.

 

[Svalr93]

The top leaders of the Iranian government and military are dead.
What you have now is a bunch of disconnected cells.
Getting killed is not what anyone a functioning government in power.

You keep dodging my question.
You're also wrong that they're a '' bunch of disconnected cells ''... They still have a governmental structure in place who is running the country.
No one actually knows what will happen, but bombing schools isn't exactly helping with the whole winning hearts and minds either.
And there's far more people radical people in the country than Ali Khameni bidding for power.

This is obviously not a direct comparison but remember that the US spent 20 years in Afghanistan and look at where that all ended up ( mostly thanks to Trump, he set thousands of Taliban fighters free with no conditions and didn't even communicate with the Afghan government about the pullout, those same Talibans took over the country ).
Would you say that the US really won that war? That's in spite of being in control of the country for decades.
There's a reason the Trump admin refuses to say what their actual goal is because they don't have any and want to be able to just kill some people and then act like it's mission accomplished and they've won even when things might actually get worse with the next supreme leader.

 

[ADiTAR]

Iran is truly acting like a terrorist. I think they will get a nuke in their face sooner or later.

What nuclear facility? It's a fabric softener factory...

 

[DeepEnigma]

What nuclear facility? It's a fabric softener factory...

Hijabs are about to get real stiff and itchy.

 

[ADiTAR]

It's... it's been 4 days.

and I ran to the bomb shelter like 25 times...

 

[Ozriel]

Hopefully it doesn't involve arming the Taliban.

The Taliban are currently in the process of being cooked by Pakistan.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Well that's not very helpful. Care to tell me what it is?

Whenever you receive time sensitive intelligence that gives you an opportunity to compromise your enemy, but only if you act on it quickly, you run a risk analysis.

Running this kind of risk analysis isn't a once in a lifetime situation, it's a practice that is standard in any war, probably as far back as wars have existed. It happens on a daily basis, and there are rules and procedures to deal with it that have been tested and refined a thousand times over.

Whom you consult will depend on the severity of the risk and the weight of the potential military gain, how you estimate the margin of error in your risk assessment is also a factor that will have been thought out ahead of time.

Essentially, every branch on the decision tree that can be traced out and calculated beforehand will have already been calculated, so that when the time comes, you just need to follow a procedure.

This doesn't guarantee the best action is taken 100% of the time, but it certainly covers the kind of cases we're discussing here.

 

[winjer]

You keep dodging my question.
You're also wrong that they're a '' bunch of disconnected cells ''... They still have a governmental structure in place who is running the country.
No one actually knows what will happen, but bombing schools isn't exactly helping with the whole winning hearts and minds either.
And there's far more people radical people in the country than Ali Khameni bidding for power.

This is obviously not a direct comparison but remember that the US spent 20 years in Afghanistan and look at where that all ended up ( mostly thanks to Trump, he set thousands of Taliban fighters free with no conditions and didn't even communicate with the Afghan government about the pullout, those same Talibans took over the country ).
Would you say that the US really won that war? That's in spite of being in control of the country for decades.
There's a reason the Trump admin refuses to say what their actual goal is because they don't have any and want to be able to just kill some people and then act like it's mission accomplished and they've won even when things might actually get worse with the next supreme leader.

You keep pretending like a group of disconnected Islamists, with no structural leader, is a functing government.
They are not. They are at best targets on the run.

So now you are making up stuff about bombing schools. We already got ground confirmation that was an Iranian rocket that misfired. You can find the source a few pages down.
But of course the Iranians would try to pretend it was the USA.

What I don't understand is why are you trying to protect one of the most evil regimes on the planet.

 

[Durien]

That takes time. There's people there who are there on business, family vacations, etc. There should have been a plan in place once the strikes began, like immediately. The administration had no plan because the Americans on the ground weren't important... Just the attack.

No, with each person who knows of thr plan, there is a possibility of a leak. This eliminates the element of surprise which was important in this case.

 

[ADiTAR]

You keep dodging my question.
You're also wrong that they're a '' bunch of disconnected cells ''... They still have a governmental structure in place who is running the country.
No one actually knows what will happen, but bombing schools isn't exactly helping with the whole winning hearts and minds either.
And there's far more people radical people in the country than Ali Khameni bidding for power.

This is obviously not a direct comparison but remember that the US spent 20 years in Afghanistan and look at where that all ended up ( mostly thanks to Trump, he set thousands of Taliban fighters free with no conditions and didn't even communicate with the Afghan government about the pullout, those same Talibans took over the country ).
Would you say that the US really won that war? That's in spite of being in control of the country for decades.
There's a reason the Trump admin refuses to say what their actual goal is because they don't have any and want to be able to just kill some people and then act like it's mission accomplished and they've won even when things might actually get worse with the next supreme leader.

Joe Biden pulled out.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

 

[DeepEnigma]

What I don't understand is why are you trying to protect one of the most evil regimes on the planet.

The same types that are gay for Palestine?

Or chickens for KFC?

 

[Svalr93]

Joe Biden pulled out.

No, Trump did.
It was Trumps pullout '' plan '', all Biden did was allow it to transpire.

The reason it went the way that it did is because Trump didn't do any actual planning beyond '' just pullout lol ''.
You can criticize Biden for not cleaning up after Trump and actually doing it properly but one of the things Biden ran on was that the Presidents word matters that's why he stuck to things that Trump decided on.
Ultimately it was Trumps '' plan '' and it would've unfolded exactly the same under him.
Remember that this is the same guy who undid his own trade deal with Canada and Mexico and went on a big rant about how whoever made that deal was a stupid person who was easily taken advantage of, it wouldn't even surprise me one bit if Trump actually forgot that it was he who decided to pullout of Afghanistan.
Just because Trump and his followers forgot doesn't mean it isn't true anymore.

You keep pretending like a group of disconnected Islamists, with no structural leader, is a functing government.
They are not. They are at best targets on the run.

So now you are making up stuff about bombing schools. We already got ground confirmation that was an Iranian rocket that misfired. You can find the source a few pages down.
But of course the Iranians would try to pretend it was the USA.

What I don't understand is why are you trying to protect one of the most evil regimes on the planet.

What are you even blabbering about, how am I trying to protect the Iranian regime?
I am not making anything up it was geo confirmed, what the Iranian government likely lied about was how many people died not the school itself being hit.

The Iranian government can go to hell that doesn't mean I have to live in lala land where I think you can just win a war and live in happiness and rainbows because you killed the Ayatollah and a bunch of generals.

The same types that are gay for Palestine?

Or chickens for KFC?

Very serious comment.
Ironically enough I'd be considered a '' zionist '' by Twitter and reddit.
If anyone thinks I am defending the Iranian government because of anything I've said you're not arguing in good faith, and you think any sort of skepticism or criticism towards Trump and how he's handling this is '' defending evil people '' which is obviously absurd.

You guys don't seem to even be interested in any sort of discussion to begin with so it's a waste of time.

 

[DeepEnigma]

No, Trump did.
It was Trumps pullout '' plan '', all Biden did was allow it to transpire.

 

[winjer]

Joe Biden pulled out.

If there is something that Afghanistan showed us is that it is impossible to civilize such barbarians.
In 20 years, billions poured, trying to elevate those people, and in the end they fold to the taliban in weeks.
Now little girls can't even go to school, there are no human rights, like something from the dark ages.

 

[LordCBH]

No, Trump did.
It was Trumps pullout '' plan '', all Biden did was allow it to transpire.

The reason it went the way that it did is because Trump didn't do any actual planning beyond '' just pullout lol ''.
You can criticize Biden for not cleaning up after Trump and actually doing it properly but one of the things Biden ran on was that the Presidents word matters that's why he stuck to things that Trump decided on.
Ultimately it was Trumps '' plan '' and it would've unfolded exactly the same under him.
Remember that this is the same guy who undid his own trade deal with Canada and Mexico and went on a big rant about how whoever made that deal was a stupid person who was easily taken advantage of, it wouldn't even surprise me one bit if Trump actually forgot that it was he who decided to pullout of Afghanistan.
Just because Trump and his followers forgot doesn't mean it isn't true anymore.

 

[spons]

Kinda hilarious that Iran is sitting on tons of WMDs yet still isn't using them. The country has already been bombed to shit, leadership wiped, and whatever the hell an Ayatollah is, he's dead as well. I'm starting to think they're utterly incapable, and probably always have been.

 

[winjer]

What are you even blabbering about, how am I trying to protect the Iranian regime?
I am not making anything up it was geo confirmed, what the Iranian government likely lied about was how many people died not the school itself being hit.

The Iranian government can go to hell that doesn't mean I have to live in lala land where I think you can just win a war and live in happiness and rainbows because you killed the Ayatollah and a bunch of generals.

Then what is the solution?
Allow Iran to continue to oppress it's own people? To continue to sponsor terrorist cells in the whole region? Continue attack their neighbors? Allow them to have nuclear weapons?

 

[LordCBH]

Kinda hilarious that Iran is sitting on tons of WMDs yet still isn't using them. The country has already been bombed to shit, leadership wiped, and whatever the hell an Ayatollah is, he's dead as well. I'm starting to think they're utterly incapable, and probably always have been.

I mean their leader chanted "death to America" for 30+ years and then died in the first five minutes lol. They also went to negotiations with the country that said "we will bomb you before we let you have nukes" and said "we can make 11 nukes right now."

They definitely aren't smart.

 

[ADiTAR]

No, Trump did.
It was Trumps pullout '' plan '', all Biden did was allow it to transpire.

The reason it went the way that it did is because Trump didn't do any actual planning beyond '' just pullout lol ''.
You can criticize Biden for not cleaning up after Trump and actually doing it properly but one of the things Biden ran on was that the Presidents word matters that's why he stuck to things that Trump decided on.
Ultimately it was Trumps '' plan '' and it would've unfolded exactly the same under him.
Remember that this is the same guy who undid his own trade deal with Canada and Mexico and went on a big rant about how whoever made that deal was a stupid person who was easily taken advantage of, it wouldn't even surprise me one bit if Trump actually forgot that it was he who decided to pullout of Afghanistan.
Just because Trump and his followers forgot doesn't mean it isn't true anymore.

There were key differences, mainly Trump being viewed as more powerful.

Issue	Trump Plan	Biden Execution
Agreement with Taliban?	Yes – negotiated and signed	Honored the agreement
Original Withdrawal Date	May 1, 2021	Extended to Aug 31, 2021
Conditions Enforcement	Threatened return to force if Taliban broke terms	Did not re-escalate when Taliban advanced
Afghan Gov Role	Excluded from negotiations	Inherited that framework
Outcome	Drew down troops but did not complete withdrawal	Completed withdrawal; Taliban took over

If there is something that Afghanistan showed us is that it is impossible to civilize such barbarians.
In 20 years, billions poured, trying to elevate those people, and in the end they fold to the taliban in weeks.
Now little girls can't even go to school, there are no human rights, like something from the dark ages.

True. But Iran is not the same, they are not barbarians.

 

[winjer]

True. But Iran is not the same, they are not barbarians.

Exactly, and hat is why there is a chance that a regime change will fix this mess and Iran can return to being a developed country.

 

[DeepEnigma]

There were key differences, mainly Trump being viewed as more powerful.

Issue	Trump Plan	Biden Execution
Agreement with Taliban?	Yes – negotiated and signed	Honored the agreement
Original Withdrawal Date	May 1, 2021	Extended to Aug 31, 2021
Conditions Enforcement	Threatened return to force if Taliban broke terms	Did not re-escalate when Taliban advanced
Afghan Gov Role	Excluded from negotiations	Inherited that framework
Outcome	Drew down troops but did not complete withdrawal	Completed withdrawal; Taliban took over

True. But Iran is not the same, they are not barbarians.

Nor would they have left all that equipment and weaponry behind. Which is now leading to Pakistan and Taliban offensives.

 

[DeafTourette]

Look up the Doha agreement

 

[NickFire]

No, Trump did.
It was Trumps pullout '' plan '', all Biden did was allow it to transpire.

The reason it went the way that it did is because Trump didn't do any actual planning beyond '' just pullout lol ''.
You can criticize Biden for not cleaning up after Trump and actually doing it properly but one of the things Biden ran on was that the Presidents word matters that's why he stuck to things that Trump decided on.
Ultimately it was Trumps '' plan '' and it would've unfolded exactly the same under him.
Remember that this is the same guy who undid his own trade deal with Canada and Mexico and went on a big rant about how whoever made that deal was a stupid person who was easily taken advantage of, it wouldn't even surprise me one bit if Trump actually forgot that it was he who decided to pullout of Afghanistan.
Just because Trump and his followers forgot doesn't mean it isn't true anymore.



What are you even blabbering about, how am I trying to protect the Iranian regime?
I am not making anything up it was geo confirmed, what the Iranian government likely lied about was how many people died not the school itself being hit.

The Iranian government can go to hell that doesn't mean I have to live in lala land where I think you can just win a war and live in happiness and rainbows because you killed the Ayatollah and a bunch of generals.



Very serious comment.
Ironically enough I'd be considered a '' zionist '' by Twitter and reddit.
If anyone thinks I am defending the Iranian government because of anything I've said you're not arguing in good faith, and you think any sort of skepticism or criticism towards Trump and how he's handling this is '' defending evil people '' which is obviously absurd.

You guys don't seem to even be interested in any sort of discussion to begin with so it's a waste of time.

Come on man. The plan is the plan until its not the plan. Trump's plan may have been deficient. But it does not change the fact that Biden and his people analyzed it and went through with it. You can speculate whether or not Trump would have changed the plan based on conditions at the time of the pullout. No one can say you'd be right or wrong because he was gone and did not have the chance to stay or change the course when Biden pulled out. No amount of passing the buck by Biden changes the fact he went through with a plan he claims was deficient.

Also, I don't know if you've followed much news, but Iran was claiming its military units, etc., are essentially operating independently a day or two ago when apologizing for a strike. There are absolutely many members of their regime still running around and causing trouble. But they have taken tremendous losses and are running scared.

Does not mean they go away in the end of course. But I certainly like the chances of the normal people in Iran to take their freedom into their own hands once the regime has been crippled more and more. Those people were brave enough to rise up earlier this year despite certain death for many at the time. Now they have actual support and I think freedom wins this time.

 

[Tams]

Honestly tho why should any Europeans help the US here when the US was threatening to invade Greenland a few weeks ago and is continuing with its aggression towards Europe?

Also no one should trust anything that comes out of Leavitt's mouth this admin are a bunch of chronic liars and will just say that there has been a deal struck when in reality nothing has happened or changed.
Maybe they have maybe they haven't but Leavitt isn't exactly a trustworthy source.

Also per usual Trump with the trade war threats, can't get anything done without threatening people.
Then people wonder why European and US relations are becoming increasingly worse.

I see geopolitics is not your strong suit. I thought the EU was trying to be a global player...

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

This shit hits different for those of us who spent dozens of hours staring at sonar waterfalls in the 90s:

You're not a man until you painstakingly plot a firing solution, celebrate a good hit, and subsequently find out in the debrief that you actually sent a cruise ship to the briny deep.

 

[winjer]

Leaving Afghanistan was the right call and one of the few things Trump and Biden agreed on.
It was a waste of money and lives, both american and allied.
The only mistake was not bring all the weapons and equipment.

 

[Tams]

Lmao Keir Starmer just keeps fucking up daily. He needs to resign. He's the worst British PM since Neville Chamberlain

And at least Chamberlain was arguably trying to buy us time to arm up.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

This is a real bad idea and a dangerous gamble. Everyone and their mother knows the Kurds want their own state. They are very likely to try and carve a state out of Iranian territory if they are allowed to openly fight the regime. This will be another Syrian Civil War in the making. Turkey won't stand for this either, they have spent decades suppressing their Kurds and preventing them from carving a state out of eastern Turkey

 

[LordCBH]

Leaving Afghanistan was the right call and one of the few things Trump and Biden agreed on.
It was a waste of money and lives, both american and allied.
The only mistake was not bring all the weapons and equipment.

I absolutely agreed with pulling out (I love pulling out), just didn't agree with the manner in which we did.

 

[Idleyes]

Whenever you receive time sensitive intelligence that gives you an opportunity to compromise your enemy, but only if you act on it quickly, you run a risk analysis.

Running this kind of risk analysis isn't a once in a lifetime situation, it's a practice that is standard in any war, probably as far back as wars have existed. It happens on a daily basis, and there are rules and procedures to deal with it that have been tested and refined a thousand times over.

Whom you consult will depend on the severity of the risk and the weight of the potential military gain, how you estimate the margin of error in your risk assessment is also a factor that will have been thought out ahead of time.

Essentially, every branch on the decision tree that can be traced out and calculated beforehand will have already been calculated, so that when the time comes, you just need to follow a procedure.

This doesn't guarantee the best action is taken 100% of the time, but it certainly covers the kind of cases we're discussing here.

Sure, but those procedures aren't purely technical. The decision trees themselves are built around legal and moral constraints like proportionality, civilian risk, and escalation. Something, doctrine, law, or policy, has to define what counts as an acceptable risk or a justified strike. Those judgments come from legal and ethical frameworks as much as they do calculation.

We're talking about two different things anyway. I wasn't claiming risk analysis doesn't exist or that militaries don't constantly run calculations. My point was about the alignment behind the decision, especially when multiple governments were involved in the intelligence sharing.

 

[winjer]

I absolutely agreed with pulling out (I love pulling out), just didn't agree with the manner in which we did.

But now it's done. It's no longer our problem.
If the Afghani and the Pakistani want to kill each other, it's their choice.

 

[LordCBH]

But now it's done. It's no longer our problem.
If the Afghani and the Pakistani want to kill each other, it's their choice.

Considering my feelings on both countries, I'm hoping they take each other out and that's the end of it.

 

[winjer]

Considering my feelings on both countries, I'm hoping they take each other out and that's the end of it.

I just hope both sides have fun

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Side stories abound. Military action in Ecuador and also it seems like Cuba is ready to fall. Cuban Americans have waited more than 6 decades for liberation of their families on the island. This includes the family of Secretary of State and Man with All the Jobs on Earth meme Marco Rubio

 

[daffyduck]

Joe Biden pulled out.