Windom Earle
Member
Ian Carroll's stream from last night. Very relevant to the current happening:
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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
Svalr93
Member
Like every single thing this administration does is either unseemly and/or lying and obfuscating.
I wonder how many of the same people who cheer this on are also the same people who get very concerned all of the sudden when they see footage of Russian soldiers being blown up by drones.
Worth remembering too that Iran has mandatory military service from the age of 18, so we're not just talking about super radical Ayatollah worshipers here.
When they get blown up it's also young men who are forced to serve regardless of their feelings on the government.
Remember this is coming from the self-proclaimed '' great respecter of life '' in chief, the guy who cares '' more than anyone else '' about human life and suffering according to himself.
And people still concern troll about Biden's mental health.
Wtf is that tweet, seriously?
Edit: Also he contradicts himself in the same tweet.
He says they've surrendered, and then he goes on to say '' until they surrender ''.
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rorepmE
Member
I accept your surrender, tankie.
calico
Member
A somewhat different scenario though when it's the leadership class -the class capable of negotiating the terms a war ends on- being killed fairly effortlessly over and over again vs the grunt class being killed en masse, which the leadership class doesn't care about.
I don't expect this will end in unconditional surrender (and realistically neither does President Trump; he always asks for the stars expecting to end up settling for the moon), but I think the leadership class being in such extreme peril provides a a strong incentive for them to find a way out of this situation sooner rather than later
Svalr93
Member
According to some people here Iran is leaderless so then who is supposed to surrender?
People shouldn't underestimate religious zeal, I don't think there's a lack of people wanting to become martyrs.
Even if someone steps forward to negotiate a surrender you'd have to get the whole country in on it including the most radical groups, otherwise how are you going to keep the peace and stability?
The answer to that is boots on the ground but no one wants to tackle or acknowledge that.
This isn't like Nazi Germany that had one command structure where this one general can just take over and decide and everyone follows even if it's the next supreme leader doing it that supreme leader would actually have to have their respect and trust too which is hard to believe they'd get if they started floating around surrender.
You'd basically start a civil war at best.
People shouldn't underestimate religious zeal, I don't think there's a lack of people wanting to become martyrs.
Even if someone steps forward to negotiate a surrender you'd have to get the whole country in on it including the most radical groups, otherwise how are you going to keep the peace and stability?
The answer to that is boots on the ground but no one wants to tackle or acknowledge that.
This isn't like Nazi Germany that had one command structure where this one general can just take over and decide and everyone follows even if it's the next supreme leader doing it that supreme leader would actually have to have their respect and trust too which is hard to believe they'd get if they started floating around surrender.
You'd basically start a civil war at best.
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demigod
Member
What is this, hide and seek? Are you not allowed to be tagged because you hid in a safe zone?
Humdinger
Member
Every war is popular for 30 days. We'll see how this one fares. I'm not impressed by the rationale or the apparent lack of a defined objective. We know the history of involvement in these types of conflicts. Easy to start a war, and it's "mission accomplished" early on. But it can take years to extricate yourself, with trillions of dollars down the drain, not to mention thousands of lives.
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
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calico
Member
Neutral ports are supposed to be off limits for attacks. Doesn't necessarily make it so ofc.
Realistically I doubt the US will break this custom. They'll just keep an eye on the ships and sink them if they leave port.
BlackTron
Member
Don't drop bombs on a neutral dock because one bad guy is there
Ukraine has developed cheap interceptors for Shaheds with very high success rates. They've long since built the capability to detect Shaheds approaching from a long distance. They've been open about sharing this tech and knowledge with NATO members.
It's mind boggling and amazing that the U.S. went to war with an adversary armed with tens of thousands of these drones without taking them up on the offer and deploying this tech to protect assets.
Crucial, expensive radar destroyed and soldiers killed because of these drones. Not to mention the sheer waste in using expensive patriots to tackle them.
It's mind boggling and amazing that the U.S. went to war with an adversary armed with tens of thousands of these drones without taking them up on the offer and deploying this tech to protect assets.
Crucial, expensive radar destroyed and soldiers killed because of these drones. Not to mention the sheer waste in using expensive patriots to tackle them.
Warspite
Member
A day late and a dollar short from Starmer as usual.
What is the point in this we have airbases in the region, are airbases so exposed?
Ishma3L
Member
You don't war much, do you?
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Oh, it's still there. It's just the might is the USA.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
You sound like The Karen's on The View. Lies by omission to try and discredit the person.
The man is a highly decorated veteran and educated.
Pete Hegseth
is a decorated U.S. Army National Guard veteran who served as an infantry officer in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay, earning two Bronze Stars and a Combat Infantryman Badge. He retired as a Major before becoming a conservative media host and was later sworn in as the 29th Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025.
U.S. Department of War (.gov) +4
Military Service and Awards
- Service: Commissioned in 2003, he served in the Army National Guard with deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay.
- Decorations: His awards include two Bronze Star Medals, two Army Commendation Medals, the Joint Service Commendation Medal, the Combat Infantryman Badge (CIB), and the Expert Infantryman Badge (EIB).
- Rank: He attained the rank of Major.
U.S. Department of War (.gov) +3
- Media and Advocacy: Before his appointment, he was a Fox News host and served as the executive director of Vets for Freedom.
- Education: He holds degrees from Princeton University and Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Secretary of Defense: Sworn in on Jan. 25, 2025, he was chosen to lead the Department of Defense with a focus on reforming the military and addressing bureaucracy.
U.S. Department of War (.gov) +5
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Should liberate California next, really. Then NYC in the grand finale.
BlackTron
Member
Right, the one with might gets to decide what is right. That is why we were lucky USA helped win WW2. After that event, any country who was into the whole freedom thing could trust the US (because we used our might to enforce rules). When that same mighty country decides to threaten annexing territory, suddenly all those countries want more might of their own, even Germany has a basis to acquire a nuclear weapon. First, in a defensive posture, then let it steep for a while with a few admin changes, and multiply it by all of Europe.
I don't think we should be satisfied that our allies remain allies because we can bully them into compliance, have common enemies or a piece of paper. The ideal reason is because they want to and trust us for their own well-being. The wind is blowing in the wrong direction.
While I agree with "liberating" Iran, it also has the effect of showing we aren't shy about war after sabre-rattling and threatening our allies.
Yes, if the goal was getting Europe to re-arm itself, fantastic job. The question is, was that a good idea and what have we paid for it? We're a hot trigger in a low-trust environment. "Oh it's fine we're mightier whatever who cares" seems to be the vibe I'm getting.
Sending the military to American cities is not something to joke about. If you're not joking, that's messed up man.
Starcraft school of war?
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
BlackTron
Member
If this is true, and the bulk of their armed forces are conscripts from the "mostly moderate totally normal just want peace" populace, then those guys just need to stand down. There is a window here where Iran can wrest itself from religious oppression BEFORE waves of foreign soldiers are on their soil and stop all of this with a negotiated peace settlement. Presumably all these non-radicals surely know who the zealots are and could just turn their weapons on them. If you are correct and the vast majority of the population just want peace without the jihad elements, then they need to step up before it's too late.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Got that out of my fortune cookie last night.
MisterFalcon
Member
Pete Hegseth Bronze Star for Valor
www.documentcloud.org
This is an award for exemplary paper pushing in the, as we now completely useless training of the Afghan security forces who folded instantly when the Taliban returned.
His other Bronze Star is similarly for high level clerking in Iraq "contributed immeasurably to the success of building a free and democratic nation for the citizens of Iraq", the country that got half taken over by ISIS in a few weeks. His whole career is one of safe cushy desk jobs which reward mediocrity, never firing a weapon in anger.
Which explainst the furious efforts to be seen as a Tough Guy.
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Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
The military industrial complex doesn't care about casualties or combat effectiveness. It cares about squeezing as much money out of the American taxpayer through corrupt politicians as much as possible before anyone notices.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
If this goes on long enough, the people who didn't hate us in the beginning are going to end up hating us anyway because we blew up their cities and killed someone they personally knew in their circle of friends and family.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
It is, but the USA isn't always right. That makes for a dangerous combination. Then, you don't have to think about moral or ethical justifications for actions. Only strength.
Do you think that your personal moral code has any impact on a decision if the only relevant input towards that decision is quantity of might?
What do you think is a more realistically achievable course of actions?
Scenario 1: Quietly supporting and funding a secular, pro-democracy uprising in Iran that can undermine the theocracy's political and economic power over time and eventually replace it?
Scenario 2: Bombing the country, eliminating the leadership, which causes a decentralized fracturing, which radicalizes the general population as they see their homes destroyed and their families killed, with no clear leadership structure to take over, while the pro-democracy contingent are busy just trying to survive the shelling.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
OkPete Hegseth Bronze Star for Valor
This is an award for exemplary paper pushing in the, as we now completely useless training of the Afghan security forces who folded instantly when the Taliban returned.
His other Bronze Star is similarly for high level clerking in Iraq "contributed immeasurably to the success of building a free and democratic nation for the citizens of Iraq", the country that got half taken over by ISIS in a few weeks. His whole career is one of safe cushy desk jobs which reward mediocrity, never firing a weapon in anger.
Which explainst the furious efforts to be seen as a Tough Guy.
Better than a bureaucrat.
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ChuckeRearmed
Member
The hilarious part is that the same people celebrated various trans and other high ranking clowns who never even served properly. Basically office clerks who has grown in their position. Hegseth has seen combat, unlike those people. So many pro-Iran, pro-democrat people these days in the thread. Really reminds me of that Hamas thread.
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BlackTron
Member
I was thinking this after both the Ayatollah and his underground bunker full of senior command was destroyed. And most of the navy. Like, soon it'll just be peons with guns running around with no one to tell them to stop fighting lol. Not saying we shouldn't go after the top dogs first, but the thought occurred to me once we had. edit: the brood wars! The cost of taking down the overmind
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
"Admiral" Richard Levine and the goof-troop with their dresses on. What a damned laughing stock of a joke. Embarrassing.
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Sonik
Member
calico
Member
What makes you think that he never fired his weapon in anger?
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
What's new? Are they still 2 weeks from obtaining a nuclear bomb?
Puscifer
Member
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
near
Gold Member
Some of their nuclear sites have already been struck.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
We should wait for the death cult to use the weapons-grade uranium they themselves told the US and Israel they've enriched to build the 11 nuclear warheads.
Then have them shout death to the US and Israel and its allies one more time.
Then wait for them to launch'em at 11 nations as well.
Since killing hundreds of thousands for over 5 decades just wasn't enough.
LQX
Member
Where have we heard that before? The only thing about this Iran situation that might happened under four weeks is a "mission accomplished" phot op moment to fool people like you, meanwhile the war rages on for months, ramping up in costs and intensity.
Also, we don't need someone like Tucker to tell us what can go wrong when world leaders proclaim war will soon be over and we have the enemy right were we want them. The Ukraine/Russian "special operation" has been a daily reminder for the last 4 years.
0neAnd0nly
Member
A continued welcome for even more fresh faces! We eagerly await your quality postings with better information than any official sources and your high-end military takes!
It's great to see so many old accounts with hardly any posts get reinvolved in the NEOGAF community, the best content on the internet
It's great to see so many old accounts with hardly any posts get reinvolved in the NEOGAF community, the best content on the internet
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kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
Interesting point. When the Ukraine war started and gas prices shot in the air there was also a fertilizer crunch that hit the poorest countries on earth the hardest.
Article: The longer the conflict in the Middle East continues, the greater the likelihood that people around the globe will pay more for food. And those in the most vulnerable countries could face hunger.
The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer. Though the region is best known as a prodigious source of oil and natural gas, its abundance of energy has spurred the development of factories that make the raw materials for many types of fertilizer, especially those that deliver nitrogen.
Nitrogen fertilizers are essentially natural gas reconfigured as plant nutrients. They nourish crops that yield roughly half the world's food supply.
For now, most factories in the Gulf that make nitrogen fertilizers are continuing to produce them. But delivering their wares to farmers is suddenly impossible, given the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel linking the Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
The cessation of marine traffic on the strait is the primary reason that oil and gas prices have surged. If the waterway remains off limits, prices for key fertilizers, and the chemicals used to make them, will go up. That could prompt farmers to limit their application, reducing the world's food supply while making sustenance less affordable.
"It's bad — there's no other way of putting it," said Chris Lawson, vice president of market intelligence and prices at CRU Group, a London-based research and data firm focused on commodities. "The world is highly reliant on fertilizer and associated raw materials supplied out of that region."
War has a way of exposing vulnerabilities that arise from interconnection. Four years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the world gained a wrenching lesson in the geography of agriculture. Both countries were substantial sources of wheat and other grains. Shortages of bread soon emerged from West Africa to South Asia.
Russia and Ukraine also produce significant quantities of fertilizer. The enduring conflict made those products scarce, driving up prices and prompting farmers to conserve their use of fertilizer. The result was depleted harvests.
The latest upheaval in the Middle East does not affect the harvesting of grain, but its impacts for fertilizer may be even more profound.
"The volumes are greater this time around, potentially, than in the Russia-Ukraine conflict," said Sarah Marlow, global editor for fertilizers at Argus Media, a news and data service focused on commodities. "You've got multiple producing countries."
Article: MOSCOW, March 6 (Reuters) - Fertiliser producers in Russia, the world's largest exporter, will not be able to make up for a potential global shortfall linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict as their ability to boost supply is constrained, industry sources told Reuters on Friday.
The war has shut down fertiliser plants in the Middle East and severely disrupted shipping routes via the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for about a third of global trade in fertilizers.
Russia accounts for about one-fifth of global fertiliser trade, but limited capacity, domestic export caps and recent Ukrainian attacks on major plants all constrain its ability to ramp up output, the sources said.
New export-oriented plants are not expected to come on stream before 2027, according to one source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"Higher prices look great on paper, but Russian producers are boxed in by domestic supply obligations, especially ahead of the planting season," said another industry source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
"And any windfall profits are likely to draw government attention as it looks for ways to boost budget revenues."
A third source, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said companies are currently focused on meeting domestic demand.
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