Wow, a roster that DOESN'T sound ridiculous and actually has reasonable choices! Only issue I have is that there isn't enough newcomers. 12 newcomers sounds too underwhelming considering that Brawl actually had 16 (or 19 counting ZSS and such) newcomers.
Nice list otherwise though, I actually like it.
Thanks for the compliment.
As to your criticism about a lack of newcomers, the reason why there are so few is due to everyone from Brawl being brought back (as well as Mewtwo and Roy being added back in). There are very few fighting games that have even hit the 50 character mark without going into wild clone rehashing (think DBZ fighting games) or recycling of resources from multiple other previous fighting games (Marvel vs. Capcom 2).
I mentioned in my post that Smash Bros. rosters have only increased over the previous installment by only 13 or 14, so a 14 character increase over Brawl is still a big jump keeping in consideration of past trends (ties it with Melee in terms of new characters added).
Besides, there are very few Nintendo characters left that are notable, so a smaller amount of newcomers compared to Brawl is understandable I believe in this circumstance.
Problem with newcomers like this is none of those characters are really mainstream, except maybe Mega Man. As opposed to Melee where you had characters like Peach and Bowser and Wario and Sonic in Brawl making their entrances. A few huge characters balanced with minor ones but there aren't many well known huge characters left.
I tried to pick the newcomers that were the most recognizable ones that were not yet in Smash Bros. Ridley, Toad, Mii, K. Rool, Little Mac, and Mega Man are certainly well known to those who have even a basic grasp of their series of origin. Black Shadow is an important character (the main villain) of F-Zero, however, F-Zero is such a niche series, that he could be considered to be "unknown". With Palutena and Medusa, I think they will both become well known among Nintendo fans once Kid Icarus Uprising is finally released.
Takamaru's game (Nazo no Murasame) is a cult classic in Japan, despite being unknown in the West. Nazo no Murasame is also notable for being the "sister game" of The Legend of Zelda, much like how Kid Icarus was to Metroid. Starfy also has been a very successful series in both Japan and the West (with the first international release selling over 500K in North America alone). Saki is certainly a niche character, however, he was probably the most desired of the Assist Trophies in Brawl to become a playable character (and besides, Sakurai seems to love rail shooters in general).
Overall, these are probably the best picks in terms of being "well known" that you are going to get in Smash 4. However, as with Sakurai I also tried to pick a few "obscure" characters (like Saki) in order to give the roster a bit more "zest". Assuming all of these characters that I have in my roster get added into Smash 4, perhaps the only notable Nintendo characters left would be various Mario characters (Paper Mario, Bowser Jr.) and Dixie Kong.
You are certainly correct though that we are now scraping the bottom of the barrel, but there are still a few gems left at the bottom of that barrel. It will be Smash
5 of which there will be basically
no notable characters left to add into Smash Bros. from Nintendo's catalog, and perhaps a more expansive outreach to third-party characters would have to be explored.
Also, a little bit of elaboration, Black Shadow takes Ganondorf's moveset from Melee and Brawl. Ganondorf would return with a moveset that is entirely his own. I always thought it was a shame that one of the most well known villains in the medium of video games was simply a clone. Clones are certainly acceptable (they often play differently), however, in Ganondorf's case its a tad sad. F-Zero and Smash Bros. fans also really desire a second character for F-Zero, and there is a significant minority of Ganondorf players that love his slow strong Captain Falcon style. Black Shadow getting Ganondorf's old moveset, and Ganondorf getting his own, will make every party happy.