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NHL Off-Season 2016 |OT2| I Want off Marc Bergevin's Wild Ride.

Z

zroid

Banned
Travis "Chartboy" Yost predicts the eastern and western conference standings using regressed goal differential: http://www.tsn.ca/a-first-crack-at-predicting-the-2016-17-nhl-standings-1.561787

the parentheses mean it's a negative goal differential

7b5907db80034664abc1b127f67e619f.png


don't shoot the messenger pls

also, important:
I’ll end with a quick caveat on this type of forecasting. While year-over-year predictions generally do well due to the limited roster turnover, the model will be blind to major off-season moves. So, if you are the type that thinks a team like Nashville should tremendously improve by way of swapping Shea Weber for P.K. Subban (as I am), that’s not captured here. If you are the type who thinks a team like Anaheim is really going to suffer by way of swapping Bruce Boudreau for Randy Carlyle – well, again, not captured here.
Click to expand...
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
Samyy said:
I think that would be a reasonably successful season for Toronto, about 20th would be great.
Click to expand...

Toronto was 23rd before they lost JVR this season

I'm thinking their big 3 will have a good chance of vaulting them towards the bubble

Zaitsev and Marner will be the 2 that truly dictate where they land... they are pretty much the keys to having a solid top 4 and a potent offense.
 
I

imBask

Banned
Here's my D%/S%³³ chart, all numbers provided by HockeyDB

1-28 - every team : passable to great defense, some goalies
29 - Toronto : no defense, maybe goalie (??)
30 - Edmonton : no defense, no goalie
 
S

Samyy

Member
Chris R said:
Can I quote this again in April?

Avs may be bad, but we aint even close to EDM bad yet.
Click to expand...

As Travis stated in his post this is purely historical based and does not account for things like:
- Major trades (Subban/Webber, Hall/Larsson) which he states should have some impact.
- Impacts of coaching changes (Anaheim, Colorado)

I imagine losing Roy would only benefit the Avs in that regard
 
C

calder

Member
I can very easily imagine the Jets just missing the playoffs, it's pretty much what I'm expecting going in.

*whispers "last year of Pavelec, last year of Pavelec" over and over while rocking in chair*
 
C

Cake Boss

Banned
I’ll end with a quick caveat on this type of forecasting. While year-over-year predictions generally do well due to the limited roster turnover, the model will be blind to major off-season moves. So, if you are the type that thinks a team like Nashville should tremendously improve by way of swapping Shea Weber for P.K. Subban (as I am), that’s not captured here. If you are the type who thinks a team like Anaheim is really going to suffer by way of swapping Bruce Boudreau for Randy Carlyle – well, again, not captured here.
Click to expand...

lol then why even make the stupid chart? It doesn't even take into account new players and coaches?
wtf these 'charts' are getting dumber by the day, and I like analytics.
 
H

Heretic

Member
zroid said:
Crq6QzgXYAAoRCE.jpg


Matthews :(
Click to expand...
This needs to be Paul Ryan'd

shadowkat said:
Good luck!

I have an interview Thursday too, for a full time position for the company I work part time at right now. They emailed my managers on Thursday to ask about me (they told them I was awesome). Fingers crossed that it goes well.
Click to expand...
Good luck, Julie the Cat!


Quick said:
I'm so sorry, Heretic. I hope I didn't offend.
Click to expand...
I got triggered. I'm sorry.
 
C

Cake Boss

Banned
Samyy said:
Huh
How many teams can we really think of that have drastically changed to that degree though? A handful at most.
Click to expand...

There are handful of teams that have a new coaching staffs, new players through agency and trades, new players as rookies from their farm teams. Chart doesn't take into account other important things like you know....age, players regressing or improving. Based on this chart Pittsburgh will be amazing for infinity years and Crosby will live to be 5000 years old.
 
B

bonesmccoy

Banned
Samyy said:
Huh
How many teams can we really think of that have drastically changed to that degree though? A handful at most.
Click to expand...

Probably a minority, which makes it somewhat surprising. The author could've come up with some reasonable formulas to accommodate major coaching / roster changes.
 
Q

Quick

Banned
Toughest part in preparing for my trip so far: making a trip playlist.

Also packing, I guess.

I'm at work right now and I've been blasting music for the last 15 minutes or so just to keep myself awake.
 
M

MultiJhonny

Banned
Quick said:
Toughest part in preparing for my trip so far: making a trip playlist.

Also packing, I guess.
Click to expand...

Add this sick flow to your playlist:

I miss the old Harambe. Straight from the zoo Harambe. Eating his food Harambe. No attitude Harambe. I hate the new Harambe. Shot by a dude Harambe. The Youtube views Harambe. Up in the news Harambe. I miss the sweet Harambe. Playing with kids Harambe. I gotta say at that time I'd like to meet Harambe. See I invented Harambe. It wasnt any Harambes. And now i look and look around and there's no more Harambes. I used to love Harambe. I used to love Harambe. I even had the silverback I thought I was Harambe. What if Harambe made a song about Harambe. Called "I miss the old Harambe", man that would be so Harambe. That's all it was Harambe. We still love Harambe. And I love you like Harambe loves toddlers.
 
Q

Quick

Banned
MultiJhonny said:
Add this sick flow to your playlist:

I miss the old Harambe. Straight from the zoo Harambe. Eating his food Harambe. No attitude Harambe. I hate the new Harambe. Shot by a dude Harambe. The Youtube views Harambe. Up in the news Harambe. I miss the sweet Harambe. Playing with kids Harambe. I gotta say at that time I'd like to meet Harambe. See I invented Harambe. It wasnt any Harambes. And now i look and look around and there's no more Harambes. I used to love Harambe. I used to love Harambe. I even had the silverback I thought I was Harambe. What if Harambe made a song about Harambe. Called "I miss the old Harambe", man that would be so Harambe. That's all it was Harambe. We still love Harambe. And I love you like Harambe loves toddlers.
Click to expand...

Absolutely Haram(be).

Edit: Started running through MBDTF by Kanye to add songs to the playlist, started listening to the whole thing. What a great album.

LrTEkbi.jpg
 
R

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
Quick said:
Edit: Started running through MBDTF by Kanye to add songs to the playlist, started listening to the whole thing. What a great album.

LrTEkbi.jpg
Click to expand...
One of the greatest rap albums of all time. Kanye will never top that.
 
C

calder

Member
Cake Boss said:
There are handful of teams that have a new coaching staffs, new players through agency and trades, new players as rookies from their farm teams. Chart doesn't take into account other important things like you know....age, players regressing or improving. Based on this chart Pittsburgh will be amazing for infinity years and Crosby will live to be 5000 years old.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how any projection can factor in a new coach. We have no idea how Bednar will do and doing something like using his AHL record as a proxy would be laughable. We still can't even say for sure how bad Roy was (we suspect he was very bad, but don't know until he's gone).
 
S

SCHUEY F1

Unconfirmed Member
shadowkat said:
Good luck!

I have an interview Thursday too, for a full time position for the company I work part time at right now. They emailed my managers on Thursday to ask about me (they told them I was awesome). Fingers crossed that it goes well.
Click to expand...

Thanks good luck to you too!

Hopefully we will both have good news by the end of the week!
 
Y

Yawnier

Banned
MultiJhonny said:
Add this sick flow to your playlist:

I miss the old Harambe. Straight from the zoo Harambe. Eating his food Harambe. No attitude Harambe. I hate the new Harambe. Shot by a dude Harambe. The Youtube views Harambe. Up in the news Harambe. I miss the sweet Harambe. Playing with kids Harambe. I gotta say at that time I'd like to meet Harambe. See I invented Harambe. It wasnt any Harambes. And now i look and look around and there's no more Harambes. I used to love Harambe. I used to love Harambe. I even had the silverback I thought I was Harambe. What if Harambe made a song about Harambe. Called "I miss the old Harambe", man that would be so Harambe. That's all it was Harambe. We still love Harambe. And I love you like Harambe loves toddlers.
Click to expand...
RIP Harambe

RIP Bantu
 
Z

zroid

Banned
Cake Boss said:
lol then why even make the stupid chart? It doesn't even take into account new players and coaches?
wtf these 'charts' are getting dumber by the day, and I like analytics.
Click to expand...

I think you're maybe missing the point a little. Regressed goal projections historically work with a certain degree of confidence year-to-year. It's a good starting point for what to expect, and then you can tweak those expectations based on new coaches / prospects / trades.

All this is doing is attempting to tease out some of the "unsustainable" factors involved in a team's success or failure last season, and see how they would be likely to perform if you play the season over again. Most teams don't change that much from one season to the next, so it's a reasonable approximation. Obviously if you were trying to project 2, 3, 4 years in the future, the reliability would decrease accordingly.
 
R

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
Tortorella on Kaepernick's protest: 'If any of my players sit on the bench for the national anthem, they will sit there rest of the game'
Click to expand...
How did this dumb fuck get another international coaching job?
 
P

Pikma

Banned
imbask said:
Here's my D%/S%³³ chart, all numbers provided by HockeyDB

1-28 - every team : passable to great defense, some goalies
29 - Toronto : no defense, maybe goalie (??)
30 - Edmonton : no defense, no goalie
Click to expand...
We don't have passable to great defense and we sure as hell don't have "some goalies"

Your model fucking sucks
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Boston is way too high on that chart. Backes won't turn their team around. I think they'll be a bubble team.

Surprised NJ is so low on that list but it didn't account for the addition of Hall.

Canucks were not a bad team defensively and with a healthier defence they should be better. They'll still have trouble scoring goals and the Sedins are one year older. They'll be bad, but not second-last bad.
 
C

Cake Boss

Banned
Lone_Prodigy said:
Boston is way too high on that chart. Backes won't turn their team around. I think they'll be a bubble team.

Surprised NJ is so low on that list but it didn't account for the addition of Hall.

Canucks were not a bad team defensively and with a healthier defence they should be better. They'll still have trouble scoring goals and the Sedins are one year older. They'll be bad, but not second-last bad.
Click to expand...

Yeah you are right, they are 3rd last bad just like last season.
 
Z

zroid

Banned
CreeperBlocks said:
I think Colorado will make the playoffs via wildcard spot this year
Click to expand...
my prediction based on intuition and no data whatsoever is

LA
SJ
ANA

NSH
DAL
STL

CHI
COL

WPG will be very, very close behind.

edit: woops I forgot Minnesota was a thing. Eh I dunno. :lol They'll be good cuz of Brucey. ffs pretty much anyone from the Central division could make the playoffs.
 
C

Chris R

Member
CreeperBlocks said:
I think Colorado will make the playoffs via wildcard spot this year
Click to expand...

Would be nice to see... Speaking of seeing, I'll be so damn happy if my ISP decides to increase our bandwidth caps to a reasonable value. We were at like 325gb last year, let us watch every single game we wanted via HS/NHL.TV, but then they changed shit... no free gb for having a mobile, no free gb for subscribing to TIVO, ect.

Only on 150gb now, and we go over every single month. Can't even think about signing up for NHL.TV this year if they don't increase it to around 300 tomorrow :(
 
R

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
19 & 21 said:
For better or worse we will be a much different team this year. I find that chart amusing for reasons aside from the avs place on it. Boston that good huh? Lol
Click to expand...
Yea, the Boston placement alone makes that chart worthless. Their defense is still trash, Chara will continue to be a fossil and their biggest add was David Backes, which isn't taking them from non playoff team to a top 5 team in the league.
 
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