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[DriftingSpirit]

Sure, I get the point. It's not ideal for sure but Zelda HAS to be out on launch. Mario can wait for the Holidays. They could add something to Mario Run and Apple will feature it in the App Store anyway.

Yep, agreed.

Do they really cannibalize each other, given their legs?

I'm not sure cannibalize is the right word but I think it nullifies some of the potential each title has as a seller on their own.

Zelda and Mario together at launch isn't going to make a difference with launch Switch sales. Zelda at launch and Mario down the road can see that Switch momentum stay steady though.

 

[Zedark]

Yeah. Since the switch is going to be the handheld console as well for the time being that one is bound to happen. Probably not till next year though. Sorry it wasn't a rumor but just my personal opinion.

Right. Though I would think that, if the mobile games launches this year, then it would be imperative to have a Fire Emblem game ready to catch the extra sales from the hype it might generate (i.e. like Pokémon Go effect). Having a new game in 2018 would be kinda silly in that regard: "Hey guys, you liked that mobile game? We have an even better FE game available on the Switch... next year." Doesn't hit quite as hard as having one that same year.

Then again, the argument applies to Animal Crossing, and maybe it is a bit too much to expect a year with Fire Emblem, Super Mario platformer, Zelda, Pokémon and Animal Crossing (would be nice, though).

 

[Council Pop]

Yeah, I find this very hard to believe. They'd cannibalize each other; better for Nintendo to space them out by a few months even if Mario is already complete.

Yeah, this. These games have the potential to be two of the biggest selling Switch games throughout its entire lifespan, so Nintendo won't do anything to mess that up.

Maybe Mario being "done" is only in reference to the single player. If the speculated 2-player aspect (hinted at but in no way confirmed by the trailer,) then that could be something still being worked on, depending upon how extensive it is.

Yeah, no. No-one would refer to a game as "done", but actually mean "only the single player part of the game is done". I mean, you could be totally right, but it's safe to say that any insider who is saying that Mario 3D is ready, completely believes that it is 100% done, not partially complete.

 

[DecoReturns]

It's funny how before we wanted an amazing launch line-up.

Now we want just a good line-up.

The argument can go both ways, but it still funny in hindsight.

I don't think Mario is ready. personally

 

[atbigelow]

They really need to stagger Zelda and Mario. Thank god Nintendo can stop their bullshit of releasing big Mario and Zelda games for different platforms on the same day (SM3DW and LBW); that was a painful day for gaming.

Hold Mario off for a month or two, and launch with Zelda. But they absolutely need to keep the hits coming in a constant stream.

 

[KingSnake]

Mario and Zelda won't cannibalise each other because they have long legs. What they would cannibalise would be the Switch stock if Nintendo is not able to satisfy the demand.

 

[Scrawnton]

Mannnn. What if the rumor if Zelda not making launch was just a controlled leak by Nintendo in order to surprise us with a launch reveal?

 

[Father_Brain]

Huuuuuuuge grain of salt, but anyone know of a Western studio that some would say has "out-Nintendo'd Nintendo" in the past and is developing a UE4 game?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm7tva6hIt8

 

[LordKano]

Nintendo would absolutely wait a significant amount of time to release a 100% complete game if that fits their schedule. No question.



It's THE Mario game on Mobile. I don't get what your point is.

His point is Nintendo will likely uses the awareness momentum that Super Mario Run created to launch Mario and see it selling gangbusters.

Like Pokémon GO & Pokémon Sun/Moon.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

I'm not saying it's going to happen but this is going to be a problem for Nintendo now there is only one outlet for their games. There's only 12 months in a year. There will be overlap with their release schedule and titles aren't going to get the same amount of time to themselves to generate sales like they used to. Having Zelda and Mario at launch doesn't cannibalize each other as they will be constantly bought with every switch sold and their legs will last the lifetime of the console. Might as well release them at the same time.

Only 12 months in a year? You say that as if Nintendo hasn't frequently had problems filling all of them up.

There is no way Nintendo is putting two of their biggest primarly single player games out on launch day. People don't have infinite money and not everyone would buy both--especially after plopping down hundreds for the system itself. Nintendo needs to spread their big releases out to maintain interest in the platform and those games would compete for attention.

 

[DerekOfTheDykes]

Yeah, I find this very hard to believe. They'd cannibalize each other; better for Nintendo to space them out by a few months even if Mario is already complete.

I don't know, Nintendo may be willing to launch with Mario/Zelda/Splatoon all on day one just to be able to present the image of "yes, content is coming, and LOTS of it". The single biggest danger to the Switch would be gamers worrying about Wii U style software droughts, so having a crazy strong launch and a packed timeline for the first year will basically cut that argument off at the pass.

Conventional wisdom might suggest that all this software will fight over their different chunks of the pie, but Nintendo is well aware of the fact that their software has sales legs long after the traditional launch window. Nintendo may have decided that dispelling any possible narrative about software support would be worth each of their titles cannibalizing each other a bit at launch, with the expectation that in the long term it would be made up by more people deciding NOT to hold off on buying the Switch.

Nintendo knows, after Wii U, that they need to drive that install base above all else. Install base means both more third party support and more people to sell their software to.

 

[superNESjoe]

People thinking Mario and Zelda at launch will cannibalize each other's sales are bonkers. Nintendo titles don't sell their majority in the first couple months and then drop off. They're evergreen, they generally always are. Mario 64 didn't just sell well at launch, it continued being a good selling game until the system was discontinued. Ocarina of Time continued to sell from 1998 through 2001.

Nintendo games aren't flash in the pan retail successes. Zelda and Mario will both sell well from the day the Switch launches to the day it is off shelves. Having that variety and that wide selection will only entice people to buy the platform to begin with. People won't refrain from buying both eventually just because they can only afford one at launch.

Hell, you can throw Smash and Mario Kart there too and they'll all sell strong for years.

 

[J@hranimo]

You know, 3D Mario could come out shortly after launch (April/May) to keep momentum and still be a part of some marketing.

 

[Neoxon]

It's going to be like that inevitably at some point, so it's better to do it at launch and give consumers more appealing options. Just look at the releases with the months in a year.

Zelda
Mario
Animal Crossing
Fire Emblem
Xenoblade remaster
Mario Kart remaster
Mario Maker remaster
Pikmin 4
Smash remaster
Donkey Kong (you know there will be one)
Luigi's Mansion 3 (rumored let's pretend it's real)
New IP
Spla2oon
Pokemon remaster

And those are just off the top of my head of what is likely based on rumor or common sense. Way more games than months in the year. And that's not including Dragon Quest or MarioXRabbids that is coming. Plus you know there will be a few titles we didn't know about in the works. Third parties better step their game up if they are going to sell their games because the release schedule for Nintendo is going to be packed with just one outlet especially when the 3DS is phased out next year. Then all of those typically handheld titles will be coming for year 2 which will likely be more packed for a release schedule.

This is going to be nuts

• Technically speaking, Splatoon is actually an enhanced port rather than a sequel from everything that we've heard. It's likely just the most enhanced of the Wii U ports.
• Pokémon Stars is the third version of Sun/Moon, not a straight remaster of Sun/Moon.
• I wouldn't be too sure about Animal Crossing & Fire Emblem being on Year 1.
• I'm not sure if DK on Year 1 is as given as you think.

 

[Astral Dog]

Yeah. Since the switch is going to be the handheld console as well for the time being that one is bound to happen. Probably not till next year though. Sorry it wasn't a rumor but just my personal opinion.

There is going to be a Mobile Fire Emblem this year

 

[web_slinger_62]

Bethesda on a Nintendo console? Unlikely right?

I think we'll get Prey instead of DOOM, the interview with Pete Hines said they weren't thinking about Dishonored 2 because it was already done, but anything else in development is fair game. So I don't think they'd re-release a 9 month old game. But it doesn't explain Skyrim...

 

[atbigelow]

People thinking Mario and Zelda at launch will cannibalize each other's sales are bonkers. Nintendo titles don't sell their majority in the first couple months and then drop off. They're evergreen, they generally always are. Mario 64 didn't just sell well at launch, it continued being a good selling game until the system was discontinued. Ocarina of Time continued to sell from 1998 through 2001.

Nintendo games aren't flash in the pan retail successes. Zelda and Mario will both sell well from the day the Switch launches to the day it is off shelves. Having that variety and that wide selection will only entice people to buy the platform to begin with. People won't refrain from buying both eventually just because they can only afford one at launch.

Hell, you can throw Smash and Mario Kart there too and they'll all sell strong for years.

They definitely have legs, but I (personally) feel it's more important to show "we have a pipeline of games, here they are, invest now". Wii U was asthmatic at best with its releases.

Nintendo needs to show they can release a game every month of the year that is worth owning a Switch for.

 

[Neoxon]

I'm not saying it's going to happen but this is going to be a problem for Nintendo now there is only one outlet for their games. There's only 12 months in a year. There will be overlap with their release schedule and titles aren't going to get the same amount of time to themselves to generate sales like they used to. Having Zelda and Mario at launch doesn't cannibalize each other as they will be constantly bought with every switch sold and their legs will last the lifetime of the console. Might as well release them at the same time.

But again, what about Skyrim & Mario x Rabbids? Having two of your biggest hitters on Day 1 raises the chances of everything else being forgotten, which would be bad news for Nintendo's long-term third party support. And again, while Mario & Zelda's legs would be more-or-less fine, the short-term sales would likely be less than they would be if Nintendo spread the two out (Ex: Zelda at launch, Mario in June).

 

[HeySeuss]

Only 12 months in a year? You say that as if Nintendo hasn't frequently had problems filling all of them up.

There is no way Nintendo is putting two of their biggest games out on launch day. People don't have infinite money and not everyone would buy both--ESPECIALLY after plopping down hundreds for the system itself. Nintendo needs to spread their big releases out to maintain interest in the platform

You realize that the handheld and the console demographic was typically different audiences right? Nobody that was upset about the GameCube drought, the Wii drought, or the WiiU drought ever said, "well there's some good games on the 3DS that I can play in the meantime". Those audiences were largely different customers. Now everything will be on the same console. I'm not saying they will both be there on day one, in fact I'd think it's unlikely that they will so that the Rabbids crossover can have some time. But to dismiss it completely is kinda naive considering those will be constant sellers throughout the life of the console.

 

[Council Pop]

The single biggest danger to the Switch would be gamers worrying about Wii U style software droughts

The biggest danger isn't (a small section of) gamers worrying about software droughts. The biggest danger is actually HAVING software droughts. The mass market attention span is very, very short, and most people buying the Switch won't have owned a Wii U and won't have even been aware there was a lack of games for it.

Nintendo will want a constant stream of content, and isn't going to release a load of high profile stuff on the same day just a prove a point to a very small section of their consumer base.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

It's funny how before we wanted an amazing launch line-up.

Now we want just a good line-up.

The argument can go both ways, but it still funny in hindsight.

I don't think Mario is ready. personally

That is basically what it is for. So we can talk about how great the Switch launch lineup was. I get it but I don't think it is necessary.

From Nintendo's perspective, they would be better off saying, "Yo, look! We have Zelda at launch! We have 3D Mario in X month! We have Mario RPG and other smaller stuff Y month! Etc..." in order to show that they can fill a calendar year with content. It helps keep Switch sales steady instead of loaded toward the front.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

You realize that the handheld and the console demographic was typically different audiences right?

I was accounting for both systems dude. Even between them, they've suffered from first-party doubts

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

But Zelda wont launch because the new mario we hardly seen is done first.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I think Zelda at launch was a given when NoA started the "one new screenshots per weeks" until the release think via facebook. They also had the game running on Fallon - doesnt seem like moves you would make if the game wasnt a launch title.

We will know for sure next week.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Huuuuuuuge grain of salt, but anyone know of a Western studio that some would say has "out-Nintendo'd Nintendo" in the past and is developing a UE4 game?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm7tva6hIt8

Spencer letting Rare make a Banjo game for Switch to get him in the Smash Remaster

But seriously I don't know who else he could be referring to other than Rare. What other Western Developer "Out Nintendo'd Nintendo", in any sense.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

But Zelda wont launch because the new mario we hardly seen is done first.

There's this too. People expect Mario to be a launch title after having been officially revealed only 2 months before? Yeah right.

 

[Fantastical]

If 3D Mario comes out in April or May I would expect Pokémon, Retros game and another game (Animal Crossing?) to be the heave hitters for winter.

We still have the new IP from Nintendo which could be anything.

I don't think we're getting Retro's game until 2018. There was about a 3.5 year gap between DKC and DKC TF. Obviously there was groundwork there for the sequel. Assuming they're working on something new and TF came out Feb 2014.. I think early 2018 might be realistic.

 

[KingSnake]

It's THE Mario game on Mobile. I don't get what your point is.

It's the Mario game on MOBILE. The attention span is quite short. Certainly not enough to hold a year. Just look around even now how the buzz has lowered down considerably. It will spike up with Android launch but it won't hold up until November.

Pokemon Go was helped by the fact that it's free-to-play and still in the top even now.

 

[HeySeuss]

But again, what about Skyrim & Mario x Rabbids? Having two of your biggest hitters on Day 1 raises the chances of everything else being forgotten, which would be bad news for Nintendo's long-term third party support. And again, while Mario & Zelda's legs would be more-or-less fine, the short-term sales would likely be less than they would be if Nintendo spread the two out (Ex: Zelda at launch, Mario in June).

I purposely left the third party titles off that list just to show the first party titles we know about or reasonably believe will be coming soon. I'll definitely grant you that donkey Kong is an assumption on my part. But as far as Splatoon, I actually meant to input that down twice. We know the remaster is coming and we also know the sequel is I'm development.

 

[Neoxon]

I purposely left the third party titles off that list just to show the first party titles we know about or reasonably believe will be coming soon. I'll definitely grant you that donkey Kong is an assumption on my part. But as far as Splatoon, I actually meant to input that down twice. We know the remaster is coming and we also know the sequel is I'm development.

I don't think we've heard anything about an actual sequel being in development. If anything, the reports of the Splatoon remaster getting continuous updates seem to indicate that they'll just stick with the updated port of the first Splatoon.

 

[web_slinger_62]

I thought the rumour was that Nintendo was publishing the Rabbids game? Wouldn't that make it a first party title?

 

[MrGoomba]

I think most of us play multiple games at the same time. So, I don't see a problem launching Mario and Zelda together. We will probably buy both. And for the casual players that don't like / know Zelda, then, Mario will do the selling job

 

[Plinko]

I thought the rumour was that Nintendo was publishing the Rabbids game? Wouldn't that make it a first party title?

I thought the rumor was Nintendo had oversight, but Ubi was publishing.

 

[Dark Cloud]

It's not about BotW and 3D Mario canibalizing each other's sales. It's about keeping momentum for Switch going and that's why if they're both done they still should be spaced out.

It sounds better for Nintendo to say on stage "at launch we'll have BotW! And only a month or two later will be the next big 3D Mario game!"

Zelda will sell the initial stock and Mario will continue the sales of the next shipments.

 

[-Mutsukki-]

I don't know, Nintendo may be willing to launch with Mario/Zelda/Splatoon all on day one just to be able to present the image of "yes, content is coming, and LOTS of it". The single biggest danger to the Switch would be gamers worrying about Wii U style software droughts, so having a crazy strong launch and a packed timeline for the first year will basically cut that argument off at the pass.

That would create the droughts to be honest, that's why I really really doubt on all these titles at launch

 

[Aostia]

So a brief update on the latest rumors?

 

[KingSnake]

They definitely have legs, but I (personally) feel it's more important to show "we have a pipeline of games, here they are, invest now". Wii U was asthmatic at best with its releases.

Nintendo needs to show they can release a game every month of the year that is worth owning a Switch for.

It's important to have a constant pipeline of games, but after 1.5 years of nothing on Wii U and having just 1 console to develop for I surely hope this doesn't rely just on having Zelda and Mario releasing at different dates.

 

[Penguin]

I think most of us play multiple games at the same time. So, I don't see a problem launching Mario and Zelda together. We will probably buy both. And for the casual players that don't like / know Zelda, then, Mario will do the selling job

And then you'll finish the game in 2 weeks, and we'll get complaints of a drought or new no games.

The idea is to pace it out so that there's a constant flow of new content for the "core" players. As it also helps keep the console in conversations.

 

[Neoxon]

It's not about BotW and 3D Mario canibalizing each other's sales. It's about keeping momentum for Switch going and that's why if they're both done they still should be spaced out.

It sounds better for Nintendo to say on stage "at launch we'll have BotW! And only a month or two later will be the next big 3D Mario game!"

Zelda will sell the initial stock and Mario will continue the sales of the next shipments.

This, too. Having a steady stream of titles over the course of the Switch's first year is more important than a massive launch with not a whole lot for the latter months until Summer or even Fall.

 

[web_slinger_62]

I thought the rumor was Nintendo had oversight, but Ubi was publishing.

http://letsplayvideogames.com/2016/...ds-mario-crossover-rpg-for-switch-launch-day/

I guess you're right, the article says third party exclusive

 

[Svafnir]

Zelda and Mario day one is great. Pokémon, Metroid, F-Zero and a ton of games could come out for the rest of the year. Remember this is a single platform and unlike 3DS and Wii U where their attention was split.

Plus they haven't really been pumping out Wii U games. I'm sure they have been working on Switch games for a while or have had older Wii U projects shift to Switch.

Edit: I think the idea that Zelda and Mario are their only big and unique games for 2017 would be the real disaster. Spacing them out wouldn't help that .

 

[Hakai]

This, too. Having a steady stream of titles over the course of the Switch's first year is more important than a massive launch with not a whole lot for the latter months until Summer or even Fall.

So you are assuming Nintendo only have Mario and Zelda? It all depends on the other games too, an what they have on the pipeline for 2017 and beyond.

 

[Zedark]

So a brief update on the latest rumors?

Zelda likely to be available at launch, Mother 3 VC Switch in Q2 2017, some hint by Liam Robertson and NateDrake about a new Metroid game, and Liam Robertson saying 3d Mario will be at launch.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Huuuuuuuge grain of salt, but anyone know of a Western studio that some would say has "out-Nintendo'd Nintendo" in the past and is developing a UE4 game?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm7tva6hIt8

Ancel's games would be the only ones I could think of. But I think all of UBI's current-gen games have used internal engines. With that said, that rumor is one stacked in his favor. It's so vague that he can claim it's anything as long as it's a western third party game that uses UE4.

 

[HeySeuss]

I don't think we've heard anything about an actual sequel being in development. If anything, the reports of the Splatoon remaster getting continuous updates seem to indicate that they'll just stick with the updated port of the first Splatoon.

Thanks for not calling out my typos lol. But I thought we heard quite awhile ago that the Splatoon sequel was in development? Maybe that was before the remaster rumors came out I can't remember.

My point was that third party developers are going to have even more reason to not put out games for the Switch or the ones that they do release better not be half assed because they will get lost in the revolving door of first party releases.

 

[Trago]

Mario and Zelda at launch? Lawd have mercy!

While that's amazing, having software in the launch window is very very important as well. I really hope they kill it.

 

[Neoxon]

Zelda and Mario day one is great. Pokémon, Metroid, F-Zero and a ton of games could come out for the rest of the year. Remember this is a single platform and unlike 3DS and Wii U where their attention was split.

Plus they haven't really been pumping out Wii U games. I'm sure they have been working on Switch games for a while or have had older Wii U projects shift to Switch.

That's even if we get Metroid & F-Zero on Year 1, which I'm not so sure about.

So you are assuming Nintendo only have Mario and Zelda? It all depends on the other games too, an what they have on the pipeline for 2017 and beyond.

I'm thinking that Nintendo's only gonna have Zelda & the enhanced Splatoon port on Day 1. Maybe they'll have more games that we don't know about, but having both Zelda & Mario on Day 1 (as awesome as it would be) is overkill & wouldn't bode well for any other games at launch or for the even spread of first party titles throughout the year. You gotta spread the love throughout the year.

 

[oti]

It's the Mario game on MOBILE. The attention span is quite short. Certainly not enough to hold a year. Just look around even now how the buzz has lowered down considerably. It will spike up with Android launch but it won't hold up until November.

Pokemon Go was helped by the fact that it's free-to-play and still in the top even now.

Nintendo will update Mario Run.
Apple and Google will feature it in their stores.
Same result.

 

[metalslimer]

I still think it makes more sense to have one one big title at launch and then save another for the summer. I was thinking about what Nintendos big holiday game could be and realized that Pokémon Stars will be huge by itself. It makes me happy that going forward Nintendo doesn't have to sacrifice one system to support another. They have a lot of options on how to set their lineup for switch

 

[Herb Alpert]

Zelda likely to be available at launch, Mother 3 VC Switch in Q2 2017, some hint by Liam Robertson and NateDrake about a new Metroid game, and Liam Robertson saying 3d Mario will be at launch.

wow. would be nice.