I don't like Todd Howard because of his personality and I feel like he craps on Nintendo so to see what he said is HUGE in my eyes. The man went all the way to say he loves the Switch.
I mean it's crazy it's already Bethesda support for like the first time in decades with a big title and now him saying this? Yeah, idc what anybody thinks the Switch will easily outsell the Wii U and Gamecube. I think outselling N64 is the goal.
3DS is 20 million Japan, 20 million America, 20 million rest of the world right? (Really shows how important Japan is to Nintendo, that's twice the number of 3DS per capita against America roughly. Also roughly the numbers Japan put towards 150 million selling behemoth PS2. Just like Wii U is doing about on par per capita iirc, despite the dismal state of home consoles in Japan.) It is a device that got its start and gathered its steam in a different mobile environment than Switch will face, though. I think the catalog opportunities afforded by hybrid will offset that somewhat and help Switch have some relevance in the portable space in Japan. The more big Japanese PS4 games that come to it, the better. The more Vita games that have their successors, the better. But just shared catalog should make the first party offerings more alluring than previous Nintendo handhelds. So I'm thinking it will sell less than 3DS's 20 million but more than 10 million in Japan and the drop off won't be catastrophic. That'd leave about 22 million more worldwide, at most, to meet N64. Nintendo still has a decent market in America that could probably do most of that on a combined device, with 20 million as a hypothetical ceiling again (again going by 3DS).
Ugh that reads way too bullish for my comfort. I do think though that if Nintendo can maintain portable relevance in Japan, which is a big if, and offer a device that has a better catalog than Wii U and 3DS in the west, it could push 40 million or so.
If Nintendo portable market craters in Japan after 3DS...Switch's potential goes down and it'd need to catch on among non-typical Nintendo consumers. Perhaps there's a new audience that'd be there for Skyrim on the go, in a console rather than laptop setting.
I think ultimately 3DS sales are probably a safe assumption for a ceiling and GCN numbers a safe assumption for a floor. I have a hard time seeing 3DS's successor doing a more catastrophic drop-off than that, especially given that Switch seems aware of Nintendo's predicament and is doing what it needs to do if anything can be done.
Watch it tank worse than Wii U
.
Edit:
Also, Nintendo relevance in Japan is a rolling stone, that could pick up more momentum the more it rolls and that momentum could carry over to west somewhat. I mean: good launch, good enough specs=high level of allure to Japanese 3rd parties to port to Switch for portable yen=better growth over time in Japan and better alternative/companion to Western corebox catalog in the west=more appealing to western third parties.
Alternatively: portable Skyrim and such catches on from launch=better sales in west without or before considering Japanese situation.