Thank you. Updated
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Thank you. Updated
Liabe Brave
Member
They gave up over a billion dollars in revenue in order to subsidize Xbox One sales. It's very likely that won't happen again. Not only is it expensive, it'd be much less effective in the current situation. A ~600k unit swing wouldn't halve the gap, they'd need an effect twice that strong to do so.
These statements are misleading. First, by averaging the consoles together you're producing a false comparison. Microsoft and Sony do not average 4.9m units per year; Microsoft averages 4.7m and Sony averages 5.2m. More importantly, that second sentence greatly undersells the scale of the disaster it would take for Microsoft to catch Sony in the US so rapidly. Xbox One sells about 2.4m per Nov/Dec, so PS4 would have to literally sell zero consoles for "one bad Christmas" to eliminate the gap. This is an edge-case fantasy, not a living possibility.
Your facts are sound, but your takeaway less so. Yes, the holidays are half the story each year. But concluding they're the only season that matters is refuted by the actual sales pattern. Xbox One is very successful versus PS4 in the holidays...but they're losing the US anyway. Each year, PS4 builds up a lead in the other ten months, and each year Xbox's bite back at Christmas is insufficient to balance it. The unit gap is higher than it's ever been. The percentage gap has been climbing for six months. That is, for the last half-year PS4 has not only been beating Xbox One, it's been beating it by a higher margin than before. So far, 2017 is the worst year Xbox has had. It's the best year PS4 has had.
And this comparison doesn't just hold with PS4. The pattern of concentrating so heavily in the holidays also differs from the path Microsoft themselves took last generation. Xbox One is above Xbox 360 in the US launch-aligned, and likely will remain so deep into 2018. But outside the holidays month-by-month performance does not look impressive against their prior machine. It seems not so much an intentional strategy, as the best of a bad job. Even the holiday advantage has become less effective over time.
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
They gave up over a billion dollars in revenue in order to subsidize Xbox One sales. It's very likely that won't happen again. Not only is it expensive, it'd be much less effective in the current situation. A ~600k unit swing wouldn't halve the gap, they'd need an effect twice that strong to do so.
These statements are misleading. First, by averaging the consoles together you're producing a false comparison. Microsoft and Sony do not average 4.9m units per year; Microsoft averages 4.7m and Sony averages 5.2m. More importantly, that second sentence greatly undersells the scale of the disaster it would take for Microsoft to catch Sony in the US so rapidly. Xbox One sells about 2.4m per Nov/Dec, so PS4 would have to literally sell zero consoles for "one bad Christmas" to eliminate the gap. This is an edge-case fantasy, not a living possibility.
Your facts are sound, but your takeaway less so. Yes, the holidays are half the story each year. But concluding they're the only season that matters is refuted by the actual sales pattern. Xbox One is very successful versus PS4 in the holidays...but they're losing the US anyway. Each year, PS4 builds up a lead in the other ten months, and each year Xbox's bite back at Christmas is insufficient to balance it. The unit gap is higher than it's ever been. The percentage gap has been climbing for six months. That is, for the last half-year PS4 has not only been beating Xbox One, it's been beating it by a higher margin than before. So far, 2017 is the worst year Xbox has had. It's the best year PS4 has had.
And this comparison doesn't just hold with PS4. The pattern of concentrating so heavily in the holidays also differs from the path Microsoft themselves took last generation. Xbox One is above Xbox 360 in the US launch-aligned, and likely will remain so deep into 2018. But outside the holidays month-by-month performance does not look impressive against their prior machine. It seems not so much an intentional strategy, as the best of a bad job. Even the holiday advantage has become less effective over time.
Fair point about the misleading statement, I under sold their struggle a lot.
About the holiday comments well to be honest I think that one just kinda floored me I would have thought Nov/Dec would be 40% max of full year sales these are only 2 months in a year.
I was not trying to build a story that XBO is gaining share over the holidays (the data I have shows that, bar 2014, its not). Just that the holidays are critically important to both console manufacturers.
I believes that is because consumer have been conditioned to buy consoles during the holiday. Moreso this past few years with crazy deal being given.
Good reading material right here.
Not sure if this is the right place to ask, but I didn't want to make a thread before real numbers are out on Monday.
So I just listened to the Glixel Podcast, John Davison did an interview with someone from Sony that will be published on Monday. It appears Sony revealed data to him about how well PS4Pro is doing relative to PS4.
John and another host (Simon Cox ) hint at PS4Pro doing well for Sony, that even people without 4k TVs are buying Pros for similar reasons as when they are shopping for smartphones and - more vaguely - what it would mean if the PS4Pro alone was already doing almost as well as the Xbox One does.
source: Glixel Podcast [starts at around 30 min]
I was wondering if that sounds realistic to you guys, I own a Pro and think it's a great piece of hardware but was under the impression that it's more of a niche product with modest sales.
edit: interesting, thanks for the responses!
So I just listened to the Glixel Podcast, John Davison did an interview with someone from Sony that will be published on Monday. It appears Sony revealed data to him about how well PS4Pro is doing relative to PS4.
John and another host (Simon Cox ) hint at PS4Pro doing well for Sony, that even people without 4k TVs are buying Pros for similar reasons as when they are shopping for smartphones and - more vaguely - what it would mean if the PS4Pro alone was already doing almost as well as the Xbox One does.
source: Glixel Podcast [starts at around 30 min]
I was wondering if that sounds realistic to you guys, I own a Pro and think it's a great piece of hardware but was under the impression that it's more of a niche product with modest sales.
edit: interesting, thanks for the responses!
ethomaz
Banned
I believe Pro sales are between 2 and 3 million right now... I consider that pretty good for mid gen console launched last November.
DriftingSpirit
Member
That wouldn't surprise me. Pro seems to be doing its job.
Maybe it is doing that worldwide. That is only way that makes sense. If it is then it is very surprising. MS might actually see that as positive news for Scorpio.
Is PS4 >200k
I'd say most likely.