Mr Moose
Member
June this year I think.
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PS5 is outselling Xbox Series Consoles at a rate of about 4 to 1 the last 15 months
RetroGamingUK
Member
Exactly
GTA 6’s impact will be similar to that of Hogwarts, in that it’ll be a big seller with mainstream appeal, albeit much more popular.
What m13 isn’t taking into account though is…
- Xbox Series S’s early momentum was partly down to the chip shortage
- GTA 6’s audience will skew a lot older, people who have a lot more disposable income (Series S skewed towards being a kid’s toy)
- Xbox Series’ overall momentum is plummeting
- PlayStation is the marketing partner for GTA6
So while GTA 6 could boost PS5 sales, it’s very unlikely going to save Xbox Series.
If Xbox, as we all expect, fails to sell 5m this year then next year it’s dead.
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Ebrietas
Member
35 million is fantasy. Look how few consoles they sold for the past 12 months. They will sell even less than that over the next 12 months.
RetroGamingUK
Member
I wonder if the low sales this year are also down to people not buying both consoles.
I mean in previous generations owning both a PlayStation and Xbox gave you the “best of both worlds”.
If there’s no worthwhile Xbox exclusives (or they’re all coming to PS5) then why get both?
I think it’s easy to see consoles as a one or the other thing, but many people have always bought both.
I mean in previous generations owning both a PlayStation and Xbox gave you the “best of both worlds”.
If there’s no worthwhile Xbox exclusives (or they’re all coming to PS5) then why get both?
I think it’s easy to see consoles as a one or the other thing, but many people have always bought both.
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Duchess
Member
And they will absolutely push the PS5 Pro as the best way to play the game.
The Series S is an excellent portable gaming console, whether someone chooses to invest in a screen for it or not. Some people do indeed move their consoles, especially those who travel a lot. But of course because no-one who you know does this, then no-one does, right? Everyone has 70'' TVs and that's the only way they could ever possibly play games.
It's also a much more unobtrusive looking piece of hardware than the PS5. Someone buying a console for the first time will be much less likely to balk at the size of the Series S than they would the larger consoles.
Older audiences will often have adult financial responsibilities and may be less inclined to spend money on a more expensive console when there is a more cost effective option which allows them to play the exact same game.
As for your final line... I can't imagine why you're so desperate for MS to pull the plug on Xbox before the GTA 6 launch.
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RetroGamingUK
Member
Older audiences will often have adult financial responsibilities and may be less inclined to spend money on a more expensive console when there is a more cost effective option which allows them to play the exact same game.
As for your final line... I can't imagine why you're so desperate for MS to pull the plug on Xbox before the GTA 6 launch.
All you do is clutch as straws and pull “what if” scenarios out of your backside.
I’m not desperate at all for Microsoft to do that.
Open your eyes, look at the actual SALES. Look at what people are DOING.
Xbox consoles are close to dead, that’s the reality.
Microsoft have already sold around 30 million consoles and GTA 6 is releasing next year. So "close to dead" is more your gleeful interpretation rather than actual reality.
RetroGamingUK
Member
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
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DeltaPolarBear
Member
AyraSutoraifu
Member
Donald mac Ronald
Member
Will ps5 pro sell more than series s/x this Christmas? Place your bets.
MisterXDTV
Member
Why would Sony disclose the split?
They should combine the sales PS5+PS5 Pro like MS has being doing for 4 years...
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Daneel Elijah
Member
More people have got GTA 5 on PS4/Xbox One than PS3 and 360. We are 4 years in the generation. By the time we will see GTA 6 on shelves, there will be probably more than 100 millions next gen consoles ready to play it. How many more people will be waiting then ? How many will use the opportunity to buy the rumored best way to play GTA 6 instead(the PS5 Pro)?The Series S is an excellent portable gaming console, whether someone chooses to invest in a screen for it or not. Some people do indeed move their consoles, especially those who travel a lot. But of course because no-one who you know does this, then no-one does, right? Everyone has 70'' TVs and that's the only way they could ever possibly play games.
It's also a much more unobtrusive looking piece of hardware than the PS5. Someone buying a console for the first time will be much less likely to balk at the size of the Series S than they would the larger consoles.
Older audiences will often have adult financial responsibilities and may be less inclined to spend money on a more expensive console when there is a more cost effective option which allows them to play the exact same game.
As for your final line... I can't imagine why you're so desperate for MS to pull the plug on Xbox before the GTA 6 launch.
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Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
They are presumably around 30 million right now.
Christmas sales (this year and next year) and a GTA6 surge could very well put them at 35 million before the console is discontinued.
Ebrietas
Member
28 million was the number just recently reported
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
They just need good games.
If fable, gears, forza horizon and more land with good reviews and are exclusive for at least a year their sales will increase considerably.
Their problem is starfield landed like a wet fart and halo infinite was a complete fuck up not being available at launch.
Good games will turn it around. Whether they have the ability to deliver good games that are so undoubtedly good it sways the medias pre conception of the brand, is something completely different entirely.
Ebrietas
Member
MS doesn’t make Xbox exclusives anymore. All of those are day 1 steam games and likely on PS5 as well.
For all practical purposes MS is a software developer for steam who also makes Xbox console ports.
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GTA 5 came out very late in the PS3/ 360 life cycle and as you know, that was a long generation. As for the people waiting... quite a number of people still game on PS4 and Xbox One. Given how cost aware that group may be, I wouldn't be placing any bets on them choosing the PS5 Pro. Most people will just want to play the game and will be immune from Sony's hype, particularly at that price.
And if you're a PC gamer, faced with the grim prospect of having to wait until 2027 for GTA 6, a Series S to keep them ticking over will be a very inviting prospect indeed. Providing the most cost effective way to play GTA 6 is huge for Xbox.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
Might want to check your source on that.
RetroGamingUK
Member
How many have they actually sold then?
Daneel Elijah
Member
GTA 5 came indeed very late in the PS3/360 life cycle. It was by then a lot easier to play it on old gen consoles than the brand new PS4 and Xbox One but more people choose that way. This is part of what make a game like GTA a system seller: it make people want to play the game in the best way possible. My point was about how most of the market would have been already in the next gen ecosystem by the time GTA 6 will be available. How many people who already have a current next gen console will upgrade VS how many who don't have one will decide to upgrade now for GTA 6? And how many will choose the Series S instead of the market leader PS5?
In other words, the Series S was not good enough for more than 100 millions people( who got a PS5, switch/switch 2 or a Series X) Any person who have yet to upgrade by the time of GTA launch will have to choose. Unless somehow GTA 6 is heavily marketed by Rockstar with the Series S, most people will follow the trends we have been seeing for the last 4 years. And the trend will favor the market leader, Playstation.
As for PC, this is where I consider that you loose most of your argument. PC are wildly varied in profiles, but GTA 6 will have a simple divide: it will need good PCs when it will be out. PC players who already have a PC good enough for it probably already have a console to play it, or will buy a good console for it because why would they have a great PC if not to escape weak consoles problematic performance? And the ones who don't have a PC good enough today will either upgrade in time, or play something else as many people on PC don't care for GTA, and play other titles instead.
The question I would like to ask you is this: how many people will buy a new console for GTA 6 in the year it will launch? Remember that we will probably have 100 millions consoles already able to play it by then. How many of them will buy a new console for it? And of that in my opinion small part, how many will be with the Series S instead of the market leader, the PS5?
You raise some really good points. We agree about GTA being a system seller but we must admit that PS3 to PS4 felt like a much larger jump to most people than PS4 to PS5.
The PC players are in a dilemma. They are used to waiting for games, true. Waiting two years for this particular game will prove a big ask for some of them. And you're absolutely correct that PC gamers are wildly varied in profiles, but Series S will surely be an option for some of them.
The problem the market leader PS5 has is that the Series S costs significantly less. And considering that this game will certainly be attracting many casual players or first time console owners, that advantage could prove significant.
That's my key point- GTA 6 will likely expand the market and Series S is in a unique position to potentially take advantage of that.
Geometric-Crusher
"Nintendo games are like indies, and worth at most $19" 🤡
less than 28M, they lie.
Next year several fake consultancies will appear claiming 40, 50 to confuse, after all they can invent any number they want as long as it is smaller than those on the PS5.
Daneel Elijah
Member
I could try to push for the PC players, but I don't really disagree with you in the fact that the Series S will be a option. Only on how much people would be making the choice to buy a Series S when as PC players they either don't care about GTA, or don't care about consoles. But as you try the same point with the PS5, I think that here we don't have to make that much suppositions. We know how much each console have sold, with hard numbers in the PS5 case, and a good enough guess in the Series S. As of today, there is probably close to twice more PS5 than Xbox consoles sold this gen. If we admit that the Series S/X divide is around 50/50, then there is 4 PS5 for one Series S. With the Series X in the mix, only 15 to 20% of the next gen consoles are Series S, so maybe people don't really care that much about the Series S affordable price? And we are not talking about the Switch at all!
If the market leader PS5 problem is that the Series S cost significantly less, then the Series S has a problem too: the value it has in the eyes of the players, especially outside of the US seems to be low, or more people would have taken the cheapest way to enter next gen. Unless GTA is heavily marketed with the Series S, then it should continue the same way when it will launch. The funny thing is that in theory you are right. As the cheaper way to play, the Series S should sell more than other consoles. But it did not until now. Unless Microsoft find a way to fix that, it should continue to harm them when GTA is out.
Your point about first time console owners is the most interesting of all. First time owner don't have the necessary history with older GTA games or consoles makers. Then in theory they will choose to go with the majority, and until now the majority of gamers have chosen the PS5. As for the casuals, being casuals mean that they will follow either the majority, or whoever have the marketing rights for GTA 6. And we go back to the fact that unless Rockstar heavily push the Series S with GTA 6 it won't happen in my opinion.
Woopah
Member
Sony might not, but Famitsu will provide the split in Japan and Matt will probably give the US split if asked.Why would Sony disclose the split?
They should combine the sales PS5+PS5 Pro like MS has being doing for 4 years...
MisterXDTV
Member
In Japan PS5 Pro will sell next to nothing and people here will jump to the conclusion that it's a failure...
About Matt, it will be hilarious if he does it. I don't remember ever getting a Series X vs S split from Circana/NPD
Woopah
Member
They don't include splits in their official report. But Matt ususally gives the PS5 / PS% Digital and Series S/X splits when people ask him on Twitter / BlueSky.
Back when Gta 4 came out, 360 was performing strongly in sales versus ps3, and Xbox paid $50 million for the exclusive dlc.
When gta6 comes out, PS5 will likely be at around 80 million and series at low 30s. Huge difference and there's zero momentum for series now so in 12 months will likely be irrelevant. It's in T2s interest to make it perform the best it can on PS5 pro, because it's competing for gamer dollars with other publishers. There's no amount of money that MS can pony up to change that. gta6 isn't going to be comarketed with a memory compromised series s.
I think your theories are sound although price has to enter the equation for the first timers and casuals.
That sounds quite high given the trends we've seen this year. Time will tell.
They may not have the money for the more expensive options, don't see value in them or quite simply aren't concerned with anything beyond playing GTA 6.
That seems a bit implausible. As far as we know, the Series S will remain the most cost effective option to play GTA 6 at launch. It's fantastic for consumers that Microsoft are giving them that option.
Crayon
Member
It's the most cost effective right now.
Those players still on PS4 or Xbox One and waiting for games to upgrade have probably been looking at a PS5. I don't think they waited that long just to buy an Xbox because they suddenly can't wait for one game. A series s, no less.
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RetroGamingUK
Member
clarky
Gold Member
GTA will be a triumph for Rockstar, i dont think they give a shit where you play, as long as you do.
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Tiago Rodrigues
Member
A console that sells like 4 to 6M consoles a year currently might have a lil boost of 1M tops for that game. And i'm being generous.
PS will have that marketing push, PS5 bundles, etc...that will be the place to play. Plus the fact that since most people play on PS means they will push for more friends to buy a Playstation instead of an Xbox to play the game.
Xbox is selling like 400 consoles per week in Japan and like 20k in the entirety of Europe (excluding UK and Germany) per month. It is close to dead.
And will almost certainly still be the most cost effective option when GTA 6 launches.
Why would someone who is currently using an Xbox One and frankly unlikely to be particularly interested in Sony exclusives, "probably" be looking at a PS5 rather than a Series X?
And we're also not talking so much about people looking to upgrade but first time console buyers or very casual gamers who haven't owned a console in a long time. The Series S and its attractive price point will make so much sense for those consumers.
So it took four years to sell 61 million and with console sales having slowed in the past year it is "very reasonable" to think that they will reach 80 million prior to the launch of GTA 6 around a year from now?
PS5 won't be the place to play for the 30 million plus people who are already invested in the Xbox ecosystem, nor those who are ready to Jump In when GTA 6 launches on the most cost effective current generation console.
As for bringing up console sales in Japan- when was Xbox ever successful there? Also, "the entirety of Europe" - conveniently excluding the UK and Germany ie the two biggest European countries in terms of the video game market. Xbox was never popular in those other countries either so it is odd to use these sales figures to boost your claim (mantra?) that "It is close to dead."
RetroGamingUK
Member
Xbox console sales are slowing to a crawl, despite the low entry price with Series S.
At this rate they’ll likely end the generation with Series consoles having about sold half the amount of Xbox One.
Never in history has a console recovered from the sort of sales drop Xbox has experienced this year.
Doesn’t take a genius to work it out.
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That's unlikely with GTA 6 on the horizon.
Duchess
Member
Xbox Series X will be low that number, for sure.
If they've sold 30 million Series consoles, but the 4:1 S to X ratio rings true, it means that they've barely sold 8 million Series X units.
To be honest, I doubt it's as few as that; it's definitely in double figures.
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
