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[Lemondish]

The Order sequel will have to change the formula a lot, and I mean a lot, RaD may as well abandon this game and create a new IP.

Because that worked so well for them this time.

I think the issue is that they bit off way more than they could chew. They're best known for handling a mobile take on an established IP. An IP where they did not need to define new mechanics, story, pacing, themes, setting, etc. Their first attempt at a new IP was on new hardware, in a new generation, in a new genre, on a new platform, and in a whole new ballgame (console vs mobile) where the quality of competition is much higher.

That's an awful lot of challenge to take on at once, especially when being pushed by console warriors and Sony themselves as a hugely important title despite no logic as to why it would be. I blame our focus on exclusives when they honestly mean little - but that's another whole discussion. Their traditional strengths (technical prowess) showed up, but the part they never had experience with, i.e. developing game mechanics and systems for a new title in a new genre, slayed them.

I think it will see a sequel, though. I also think they'll show their capability at improving themselves in a way that will make the sequel look as radical a departure on the established formula as U2 did when compared to the original Uncharted. By that I'm not saying it will be Uncharted 2 levels of awesome, but just that I expect it to be as polished as U2 was when it comes to perfecting the formula. I think a great example would be the Resistance series. It also released with a short campaign, no real love from the playerbase, and some scathing reviews - but it had potential, and they rode that potential to some great sequels. I think RAD will have a chance to prove what they're capable of in this world again.

 

[ethomaz]

The same dimension where this is a normal controller?

I love this controller... it was the best controller I ever touched.

 

[spatenfloot]

I reckon Bloodborne will do about 350k sold this month (US).

Damn Loch Ness monster...

 

[StevieP]

It wasn't. Grandmothers across the world still have unopened boxes containing the Wii console. My mother-in-law uses her unopened Wii box (console inside) as a plant pedestal.

Fact.

Those poor grandmas with 9 unopened games. Will anyone ever think of the children!

 

[Purest 78]

The Order sequel will have to change the formula a lot, and I mean a lot, RaD may as well abandon this game and create a new IP.

I wouldn't say alot To many cutscenes was my only problem. I had no issues with anything else.

 

[MilesTeg]

Great month for hardware sales. Will be interesting to see how 3DS does in March. It's nice to see portable hardware on top for a change after all the doom and gloom. Wonder if N3DS will lead to a bigger boost for the console in the west than anticipated.

Zelda did great. Fastest selling handheld Zelda ever is impressive. Monster Hunter at almost 300k is great, I think it will continue to get some good sales over the next couple months too as there is little competition on the platform right now.

Strong sales for PS4 and Xbone which is also very nice to see, especially at the current prices. The industry is looking more healthy today than one year ago. Though software sales on the whole aren't too great. That will change soon though as more next gen consoles continue to sell.

I'm actually kinda surprised Wii U nearly hit 100k and have year over year growth. Obviously it's not very significant but perhaps the console won't completely tank as fast as I thought, though it's gonna be awhile before the next big game, so once again the console will have trouble getting any momentum. Mario Party 10 doesn't look good and it's a long way til Splatoon which is an unproven IP, and well after that we will have to wait and see what Nintendo does for dates.

 

[allan-bh]

Birth by Sleep sold 225k in September 2010, and was number 6 on the NPD top ten.

Yes, but he said 2 games on top 10.

 

[Square2015]

After a lot of adjusting of the SW text we can expanded into year three:

-click to enlarge
-BTW we have SNES figures from Nov '93 on, so we can compare the past four cycles accurately.
-I have in my notes Wii shortages continuing until April of '09

 

[Bgamer90]

They already got a lead of 650k units, and sales that have been averaging over to a lot over so far this year. With the chance of a price cut to spur it further. A 1.6 million unit lead without a price cut, and over a 2 million unit lead with one.

I just don't see it this year unless there's multiple months in which the Xbox One is under 100K or multiple months (outside of the Holiday Season) in which the PS4 is 400K+.

MS and Sony are going to go all out this Holiday season -- especially MS due to Uncharted 4's delay; I definitely feel that MS is going to make bigger moves than they made last year to get the most out that -- Multiple big (exclusive) games on top of not having to worry about Uncharted 4.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some $250 Xbox One bundles this year to be honest.

 

[aerts1js]

The Order will end up making a decent profit but the brand is so tarnished it's probably best they try a new IP or take over an existing one like they did with the PSP. They should take on Jak and Daxter.

 

[Welfare]

After a lot of adjusting of the SW text we can expanded into year three:

-I have in my notes Wii shortages continuing until April of '09

Wow that long? Jesus.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Wow that long? Jesus.

Yup. Q1 2009 was the first time the Wii could actually be bought everywhere at anytime.

 

[donny2112]

After a lot of adjusting of the SW text we can expanded into year three:

I find it best to extend a year at a time, so that the text blurbs only have to be moved around once per year.

-I have in my notes Wii shortages continuing until April of '09

That's when demand was completely offset by supply, but early 2009 is when that adjustment was happening. The outrageous Feb/Mar 2009 numbers were due to that extra supply finally being available, which resulted in satiation come April.

Edit:
Fall 2008 killed the Wii's momentum. Wii Music and Animal Crossing "Been there done that" Edition and still no price drop? Just smh. RARE came out with Banjo & Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts" that Fall 2008, and if that had been available for Wii, I think it would've done a lot better itself and Nintendo's lineup wouldn't have lost so much momentum, either. RARE was always great at covering gaps in Nintendo's lineup.

 

[spwolf]

I just don't see it this year unless there's multiple months in which the Xbox One is under 100K or multiple months (outside of the Holiday Season) in which the PS4 is 400K+.

MS and Sony are going to go all out this Holiday season -- especially MS due to Uncharted 4's delay; I definitely feel that MS is going to make bigger moves than they made last year to get the most out that -- Multiple big (exclusive) games on top of not having to worry about Uncharted 4.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some $250 Xbox One bundles this year to be honest.

didnt they have something like $280 already for holidays, after Target's gift certs? They might go lower as the gap is still widening.

 

[ZhugeEX]

PS4 currently leads by just under 650,000 units.
The gap was at it's highest in October 2014 (1,150,000 unit lead) and at its lowest in December 2013 (185,000 unit lead). PS4 has always lead over Xbox sales as shown above^

Just to expand on this graph. I've added X360 and PS3 comparison. Launches aligned.

The PS4 and Xbox One are doing much better (individually and combined) than the PS3 and Xbox 360. However do keep in mind that the Wii and PS2 were also doing very well when the PS3 and 360 came out where as the Wii U, PS3 and 360 are not doing very well at the moment with PS4 and XOne leading.

Cumulative install base of PS4/One: 13.84m
Cumulative install base of PS3/360: 8.82m

 

[EatMyFace]

Well they do have a huge games advantage this spring(The Order + Bloodborne), and you have to couple that with the fact that the Gamestop trade in deal drove up the sales a lot this month too.

Once X1's lineup starts this year with Fable-Battletoads*-Forza6-TombRaider-GearsColection*-Halo5, I think you will see sales that are a lot more even....but the true wildcard will be the pricecuts (or lack thereof) I guess....

*(rumored of coarse

XB1 has a much lower price point. That alone should make the difference, but it doesn't.
Yeah, sales will be better for XB1 in the holidays.....because there will be some crazy bundles. But we have no idea where PS4 will stand this holiday. Price drop is overdue IMO and once that hits the gap will only widen even more.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Price drop is overdue IMO and once that hits the gap will only widen even more.

Why do you say its overdue?

 

[Mr Swine]

Just to expand on this graph. I've added X360 and PS3 comparison. Launches aligned.

The PS4 and Xbox One are doing much better (individually and combined) than the PS3 and Xbox 360. However do keep in mind that the Wii and PS2 were also doing very well when the PS3 and 360 came out where as the Wii U, PS3 and 360 are not doing very well at the moment with PS4 and XOne leading.

Cumulative install base of PS4/One: 13.84m
Cumulative install base of PS3/360: 8.82m

So far does that mean that the console userbase is growing with the PS4 and Xbone this gen compared to last gen? (If we don't count Nintendo)

 

[Bgamer90]

XB1 has a much lower price point. That alone should make the difference, but it doesn't.

Many people who are looking to buy the "best deal" aren't going to do it during these early months of the year when the Holiday season is known for that.

These low(er) selling months are being greatly supported by the new games the consoles have due to that previous fact. PS4 has major AAA exclusives; Xbox One doesn't. Xbox being $50 cheaper with no new major game isn't going to take the spotlight away from the PS4.

Price drop is overdue IMO and once that hits the gap will only widen even more.

Why is it overdue? The system is doing fine. No point in lowering the price even more during these months when console sales are lower.

 

[ZhugeEX]

So far does that mean that the console userbase is growing with the PS4 and Xbone this gen compared to last gen? (If we don't count Nintendo)

What it means is that the PS4 and Xbox One have had better first year sales than their predocessors in the USA. This was to be expected to be honest due to the long generation we just had so its not too surprising that both PS4 and Xbox One have started with a bang.

Also last gen was the slow to start due to the fact the PS2 was still dominating when the Xbox 360 came out and the Xbox brand was only starting to grow. Also the PS3 was expensive and not seen as a viable alternative compared to PS2 in its first year. Sales of the Xbox 360 and PS3 were more spread where as sales of the PS4 and Xbox One were More immediate.

 

[Chobel]

Many people who are looking to buy the "best deal" aren't going to do it during these early months of the year when the Holiday season is known for that.

These low(er) selling months are being greatly supported by the new games the consoles have due to that previous fact. PS4 has major AAA exclusives; Xbox One doesn't. Xbox being $50 cheaper with no new major game isn't going to take the spotlight away from the PS4.



Why is it overdue? The system is doing fine. No point in lowering the price even more during these months when console sales are lower.

For the same reason MS is doing it, increasing market-share. Plus the only way Sony can fight MS this fall is price/value.

 

[N.Domixis]

I just don't see it this year unless there's multiple months in which the Xbox One is under 100K or multiple months (outside of the Holiday Season) in which the PS4 is 400K+.

MS and Sony are going to go all out this Holiday season -- especially MS due to Uncharted 4's delay; I definitely feel that MS is going to make bigger moves than they made last year to get the most out that -- Multiple big (exclusive) games on top of not having to worry about Uncharted 4.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some $250 Xbox One bundles this year to be honest.

You have to remember what ever gap ms gets over the holiday will be reduced come launch of U4 early next year, QB will not do much, its a new ip.

 

[StevieP]

So far does that mean that the console userbase is growing with the PS4 and Xbone this gen compared to last gen? (If we don't count Nintendo)

A console is a console is a console. Disregard the label on the front when you're looking at the market at large.

 

[Chobel]

You have to remember what ever gap ms gets over the holiday will be reduced come launch of U4 early next year, QB will not do much, its a new ip.

Was Uncharted ever a big seller in US?

 

[N.Domixis]

Was Uncharted ever a big seller in US?

Doesnt matter, if infamous pushed ps4s U4 will push even more.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Was Uncharted ever a big seller in US?

Yup. Big enough.

 

[anothertech]

Gratz Sony and Nintendo!

However you look at it, this year is off to a GREAT start

 

[Loudninja]

Was Uncharted ever a big seller in US?

I know UC2 sold 537,000 its first month.

 

[Bgamer90]

For the same reason MS is doing it, increasing market-share. Plus the only way Sony can fight MS this fall is price/value.

Don't see the need in doing it right now. The sales will jump a bit but they will then more than likely go back to "typical Q1/Q2" sales. They should just save it for the build up to Holiday season in my opinion (Fall).

Was Uncharted ever a big seller in US?

Probably the best selling Playstation series in the US that was introduced last gen (unless I'm mistaken).

________

You have to remember what ever gap ms gets over the holiday will be reduced come launch of U4 early next year, QB will not do much, its a new ip.

Way too early to say this without knowing what both systems will have then + what price they will be during the Spring 2016 period.

 

[ZhugeEX]

A console is a console is a console. Disregard the label on the front when you're looking at the market at large.

This is what I said in a previous thread and I got told that Nintendo Wii was an outlier haha.

But if you look at cumulative console sales for each gen then this gen won't sell as much as last gen or even gen 6 imo despite the front loaded start.

 

[Welfare]

This is what I said in a previous thread and I got told that Nintendo Wii was an outlier haha.

But if you look at cumulative console sales for each gen then this gen won't sell as much as last gen or even gen 6 imo despite the front loaded start.

Damn you Wii U!

 

[ZhugeEX]

Damn you Wii U!

Yep, Wii U is really holding this gen back with the terrible sales.

However I still don't see PS4 + Xbox One outselling PS3+360 (180m) or PS2* (156m) by the end of this gen.

Gen 6: 200m
Gen 7: 280m
Gen 8: ~41m


*May exceed PS2 LTD but not by much.

 

[STEaMkb]

What it means is that the PS4 and Xbox One have had better first year sales than their predocessors in the USA. This was to be expected to be honest due to the long generation we just had so its not too surprising that both PS4 and Xbox One have started with a bang.

Also last gen was the slow to start due to the fact the PS2 was still dominating when the Xbox 360 came out and the Xbox brand was only starting to grow. Also the PS3 was expensive and not seen as a viable alternative compared to PS2 in its first year. Sales of the Xbox 360 and PS3 were more spread where as sales of the PS4 and Xbox One were More immediate.

At what point did Xbox 360 sales really begin to accelerate and might there come a time when the 360 and Xbox One sales begin to align more closely or possibly switch positions? It's an important talking point for Microsoft to able to boast 'XB1 is tracking higher than 360' at the same point in time.

 

[ZhugeEX]

At what point did Xbox 360 sales really begin to accelerate and might there come a time when the 360 and Xbox One sales begin to align more closely or possibly switch positions? It's an important talking point for Microsoft to able to boast 'XB1 is tracking higher than 360' at the same point in time.

Worldwide or USA? Or both?

 

[ethomaz]

Just to expand on this graph. I've added X360 and PS3 comparison. Launches aligned.

The PS4 and Xbox One are doing much better (individually and combined) than the PS3 and Xbox 360. However do keep in mind that the Wii and PS2 were also doing very well when the PS3 and 360 came out where as the Wii U, PS3 and 360 are not doing very well at the moment with PS4 and XOne leading.

Cumulative install base of PS4/One: 13.84m
Cumulative install base of PS3/360: 8.82m

Can you make this graph without November and December? Seems like most PS4/Xbone sales come from launch months... after that the sales seems more flat gen over gen.

 

[Plinko]

This is what I said in a previous thread and I got told that Nintendo Wii was an outlier haha.

But if you look at cumulative console sales for each gen then this gen won't sell as much as last gen or even gen 6 imo despite the front loaded start.

Ouch...that is troubling.

 

[STEaMkb]

Worldwide or USA? Or both?

Worldwide. It would be nice to understand the bigger picture.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Worldwide. It would be nice to understand the bigger picture.

Here ya go


Worldwide sales as below-

XOne CY 2013- 3.90m
XOne CY 2014- ~7.60m-8.60m
Total: 11.50m-12.50m (based on estimates)

X360 CY2005- 1.50m
X360 CY2006- 8.90m (10.4m)
X360 CY2007- 7.30m (17.7m)
X360 CY2008- 10.8m (28.5m)
X360 CY2009- 10.2m (38.7m)
X360 CY2010- 12.1m (50.8m)
X360 CY2011- 14.9m (65.8m)
X360 CY2012- 10.1m (75.9m)
X360 CY2013- 7.00m (82.9m)

So you can see that despite the very front loaded first year the second year for XOne was lower than X360's second calender year.Reason for X360 increasing sales was because popularity of Xbox was growing worldwide + Kinect launch extended sales. Xbox One saw very high sales in 2013 and 2014 was carried by high USA sales. I expect the Xbox One to sell similarly to the Xbox 360 but don't expect it to increase in sales YOY the same way 360 did since 2009. Unless Xbox One gets some extension add on like the 360 had kinect.

 

[Welfare]

Worldwide. It would be nice to understand the bigger picture.

Well the answer to both would be 2010 with the Kinect launch. 2011 sales were big.

 

[TomShoe]

Ouch...that is troubling.

Seems more like a symptom of the Wii U dragging everything else down.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Can you make this graph without November and December? Seems like most PS4/Xbone sales come from launch months... after that the sales seems more flat gen over gen.

No.... that'd be pointless.

Ouch...that is troubling.

Meh, console is far from dead. Just looking at the PS4 and Xbox One launches + holiday months can show you that. Also software tie is very high and I expect attach rate of software to be higher than previous gens.

Last gen we had the Wii which had a high percentage of casual gamers with very front loaded sales. But the Wii also had hardcore and semi casual audience that bought either a PS3 or 360 as well. Also the gen was much longer and had extension tools.

I suggest this gen will be similar to gen 6 but lower due to Wii U failure + success of other industries such as mobile. Far from dead though. There is still a need and want for a dedicated console industry despite the boom in mobile and casual gaming.

 

[ethomaz]

No.... that'd be pointless.

Ok but it is not pointless... I will do later.

 

[STEaMkb]

Here ya go

Thanks for the information. I envisage Xbox One doing okay this year (comparatively) with a healthy number of 360 owners making the switch. A new controller, possible slim model and serious holiday promotion should see them through nicely.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Ok but it is not pointless... I will do later.

If you ignore the opening 2 months for PS3/360/PS4/One and just count the full calender year (2006 for 360, 2007 for PS3 and 2014 for One/PS4) then you get the following numbers.

USA Sales:

360 CY2006: 3.90m
PS3 CY2007: 2.56m

One CY2014: 4.37m
PS4 CY2014: 4.69m

Thanks for the information. I envisage Xbox One doing okay this year (comparatively) with a healthy number of 360 owners making the switch. A new controller, possible slim model and serious holiday promotion should see them through nicely.

My prediction for Xbox One puts it at ~21 million worldwide by the end of this year. Xbox 360 at the same point in time would have been at 17.7m. However I do expect the gap between 360 and One to start getting closer as the years go on and eventually the aligned sales will be in favour of 360 with Xbox One sales dropping YOY compared to 360 where they increased YOY.

 

[Dragonborn]

Many people who are looking to buy the "best deal" aren't going to do it during these early months of the year when the Holiday season is known for that.

These low(er) selling months are being greatly supported by the new games the consoles have due to that previous fact. PS4 has major AAA exclusives; Xbox One doesn't. Xbox being $50 cheaper with no new major game isn't going to take the spotlight away from the PS4.



Why is it overdue? The system is doing fine. No point in lowering the price even more during these months when console sales are lower.

What major exclusives does the PS4 have the at would push it so much more over the X1? The order which apperently bombed? Bloodborne which is a niche title?

Honestly, it's pretty simple. At a lower price point people still don't want an X1 because it's not a PS4. The X1 needs to be cheaper. That's MS whole selling line at this point:

"Hey, we're not a PS4 but we are cheaper"

 

[heidern]

So you can see that despite the very front loaded first year the second year for XOne was lower than X360's second calender year.

The XBO also had the so called fire sale holiday prices/bundles to give a massive boost in November and December. Did the 360 also have significant price cutting in 2006 to help it?

 

[Bgamer90]

What major exclusives does the PS4 have the at would push it so much more over the X1? The order which apperently bombed? Bloodborne which is a niche title?

Haha, so now those PS4 exclusives don't mean anything? Could have sworn you used them to state how the PS4 has a more solid Q1/Q2 period than the Xbox One does in previous discussions.

Anyway, those games are still far more "mainstream attention grabbing" than only Screamride and Ori.

Honestly, it's pretty simple. At a lower price point people still don't want an X1 because it's not a PS4. The X1 needs to be cheaper. That's MS whole selling line at this point:

"Hey, we're not a PS4 but we are cheaper"

Again, what reason would many people have to get an XB1 right now? There's no major exclusives being released for it until August at the earliest. It's smarter for people who want an XB1 to get one when new games are actually being released for it. It doesn't need to be cheaper during months that are low(er) for console sales + lacking in terms of new game releases.

If anything, it's smarter to get more money from sales now (via not having a price drop) and worrying about catching up during the months in which console sales will be higher -- with those months also being when the XB1 will have a good number of big titles.

 

[LegendofDragoonLives]

Because Microsoft have dropped the price from $499 to around $300 to $350 with the likelihood being that it'll be under $300 before the year ends.

So that's why people think Sony will do it as well.

By that logic, Sony would have already dropped it to 350$ to price match, as stated in the previous post.

 

[Purest 78]

Haha,so now those PS4 exclusives doneven anything? Could have sworn you used them to state how the PS4 has a much solid Q1/Q2 period than the Xbox One does in previous discussions.

Anyway, those games are still far more "mainstream attention grabbing" than only Screamride and Ori.




Again, what reason would a person have to get an XB1 right now? There's no major games being released for it until August at the earliest. It's smarter for people who want an XB1 to get one when new games are actually being released for it. It doesn't need to be cheaper during months that are low(er) for console sales + lacking in terms of new game releases.

If anything, it's smarter to get more money from sales now (via not having a price drop) and worrying about catching up during the months in which console sales well be higher -- with those months also being when the XB1 will have a good number of big titles.

Don't you think Forza fans have X1 already, considering there's two forza games on x1. Same with Halo I doubt any Halo fan could pass on the MCC. Who ever has The best deals will win the holidays. Parents don't look at exclusives they look at price tags.

 

[ZhugeEX]

By that logic, Sony would have already dropped it to 350$ to price match, as stated in the previous post.

Please note that post is not my opinion, but the opinion of others I've seen as mentioned in the second line of that post.