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[Thunder Monkey]

If the PS4 is leading by 650K units now, I can easily see the gap expanding back to 1.15M or even more by October. To do so, the PS4 only has to sell a minimum of 500K for the next 7 months, meaning an average of ~71K a month, which should be quite easy IMO. June and September alone could see a gap of >100K between the two consoles due to the release of Batman Arkham Knight and MGS5

My prediction for last year was 1.5 million units in PS4's favor by the holiday season. They were around 200k units short.

So my prediction for this year is 1.8 million units in PS4's favor by Nov. Since they are starting at a higher level this year than they were last.

 

[Javin98]

My prediction for last year was 1.5 million units in PS4's favor by the holiday season. They were around 200k units short.

So my prediction for this year is 1.8 million units in PS4's favor by Nov. Since they are starting at a higher level this year than they were last.

1.8 million sounds a bit too high IMO. Unless Sony announces a price cut to $299 at Gamescom, I think you should keep your optimism lower. Then again, this has so far been a weird ass generation so no one can tell

 

[Thunder Monkey]

1.8 million sounds a bit too high IMO. Unless Sony announces a price cut to $299 at Gamescom, I think you should keep your optimism lower. Then again, this has so far been a weird ass generation so no one can tell

Hah!

I don't know. They increased their lead by around 100k in Feb alone. That's against a cheaper XboxOne. If they drop to $299 this year I'd expect a 2 million unit lead to be the minimum by the holiday season. Last year they made a 1.3(ish) million unit lead with much closer months than this past month.

 

[ZhugeEX]

So XB1 is at least 10.5 million?

Yep, probably over 11 million easily at this point.

If the PS4 is leading by 650K units now, I can easily see the gap expanding back to 1.15M or even more by October. To do so, the PS4 only has to sell a minimum of 500K for the next 7 months, meaning an average of ~71K a month, which should be quite easy IMO. June and September alone could see a gap of >100K between the two consoles due to the release of Batman Arkham Knight and MGS5

Based on my current prediction model the PS4 will exceed 9.5m in the USA (Approaching 10m) by the end of October 2015 whilst the Xbox One will have just reached 8.5 million.

Repost for new page.

NPD USA: Feb 2014 Vs Feb 2015

The cumulative install base of PS4 and Xbox One in the USA has exceeded 14 million in March, PS4 has more than 52% share, Xbox One has less than 48% share. Worldwide install base is now over 31 million.

PS4 currently leads by just under 650,000 units.
The gap was at it's highest in October 2014 (1,150,000 unit lead) and at its lowest in December 2013 (185,000 unit lead). PS4 has always lead over Xbox sales as shown above^

 

[Javin98]

Hah!

I don't know. They increased their lead by around 100k in Feb alone. That's against a cheaper XboxOne. If they drop to $299 this year I'd expect a 2 million unit lead to be the minimum by the holiday season. Last year they made a 1.3(ish) million unit lead with much closer months than this past month.

Yeah, it's possible, I can't say for sure it won't happen but right now no one can really tell. We'll just wait and see

Based on my current prediction model the PS4 will exceed 9.5 million in the USA by the end of October 2015 whilst the Xbox One will have just reached 8.5 million.

Sounds about right

 

[dragonbane]

Ye i think a total budget of 25-30million with marketing would be my bet. Think the game will break even when all is said and done.

Not even close. Heavy Rain cost $52M in total, with a team size and dev time fairly similar to The Order. Considering its not 2006-2010 anymore (budgets generally increased) and the fact The Order had more marketing than most other Sony titles its pretty safe to say the total budget is $60M+.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

1.8 million sounds a bit too high IMO. Unless Sony announces a price cut to $299 at Gamescom, I think you should keep your optimism lower. Then again, this has so far been a weird ass generation so no one can tell

It's plausible looking at the software schedule for both consoles. PS4 is markedly stronger on that front all the way til November.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Based on my current prediction model the PS4 will exceed 9.5 million in the USA by the end of October 2015 whilst the Xbox One will have just reached 8.5 million.

I think you're being a tad too conservative on the PS4 my friend. By the latest of July they should have a lead of 1 million units again. They have less than 400K units to go and five months to do so. If they average around 60k units monthly more than One through that time they'll be there by July.

 

[Welfare]

If the PS4 is leading by 650K units now, I can easily see the gap expanding back to 1.15M or even more by October. To do so, the PS4 only has to sell a minimum of 500K for the next 7 months, meaning an average of ~71K a month, which should be quite easy IMO. June and September alone could see a gap of >100K between the two consoles due to the release of Batman Arkham Knight and MGS5

If September has Halo 5, Xbox is winning that month.

I think the gap will be just above 1 million come August, and then in September it'll fall down.

Again, only if Halo 5 is in September.

 

[Javin98]

It's plausible looking at the software schedule for both consoles. PS4 is markedly stronger on that front all the way til November.

Yep, I agree. The PS4's software lineup from January to September totally shits on the XB1's lineup. But keep in mind that to extend the gap to 1.8 million, the PS4 would need to sell an average of 143K per month from March all the way to October, which sounds unlikely

If September has Halo 5, Xbox is winning that month.

I think the gap will be just above 1 million come August, and then in September it'll fall down.

Again, only if Halo 5 is in September.

It depends. Don't forget MGS5 is releasing that month as well. If Sony is aggressive in marketing and bundling,they could take the month

 

[Mpl90]

Kirby and the Rainbow Curse sold 52,000 in 9 days, right? Let's see how it compares with the latest main episode, Kirby Triple Deluxe

Kirby: Triple Deluxe in April (2 days) - 41,000
Kirby: Triple Deluxe in May (28 days) - 97,000
Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (9 days) 52,000

To be honest, considering it's not a main release (compared to the kinds of Triple Deluxe, I mean), I'd say it did decent. Not good or great, but not even bad or awful...just decent. I wondering how much it could sell in the long run, given the budget price, despite not expecting anything great in that sense (and the fact it hasn't been released in December like Toad...oh, right, I'd love an update on Toad sales too!).

 

[2thepoint]

If September has Halo 5, Xbox is winning that month.

I think the gap will be just above 1 million come August, and then in September it'll fall down.

Again, only if Halo 5 is in September.

I can only see Xbox One winning September if they have a price cut timed for Halo 5 launch.

I imagine the well of fans looking to purchase an Xbox One solely for Halo 5 has dried up considerably after the launch of Halo: MCC.

 

[Welfare]

It depends. Don't forget MGS5 is releasing that month as well. If Sony is aggressive in marketing and bundling,they could take the month

Halo in the US > MGS in the US

I mean, Halo 3 caused the 360 to be above the Wii in it's launch month.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

I can only see Xbox One winning September if they have a price cut timed for Halo 5 launch.

I imagine the well of fans looking to purchase an Xbox One solely for Halo 5 has dried up considerably after the launch of Halo: MCC.

Certainly Halo 5 is not going to be as big a deal as a lot of people think worldwide. It's not going to hold a candle sales-wise to other entries in the series if it only really sells well in NA, which has been the case for nearly all Xbone exclusives so far.

 

[2thepoint]

Certainly Halo 5 is not going to be as big a deal as a lot of people think worldwide. It's not going to hold a candle sales-wise to other entries in the series if it only really sells well in NA, which has been the case for nearly all Xbone exclusives so far.

Completely agree.

It will do well but I anticipate a Call of Duty-like decline for the franchise after the sour taste left after Halo 4 and also Halo: MCC.

Halo really did go to shit when Bungie took off. It's still a valuable IP though, so there's hope for Halo 5 yet.

 

[hawk2025]

I won't even try to wager a guess on how much Halo 5 will sell.

I can see anywhere between a paltry 2 million for the franchise and a complete recapture of the Halo 3 phenomenon.

 

[hodayathink]

Such a strange month for the Vita.

Vita and TV sold more than Vita did in Nov.

Can't remember Dec numbers for Vita, but I imagine they sold right on par with Vita in Dec.

That's the thing with dead platforms. Even modest increases are huge jolts of life.

I could be wrong, but I think they finally phased out the Borderlands 2 bundle for the Vita last holiday season (and launched the non-bundled Vita in December), which could have caused stock issues. The truth is that the 20-30K that it's selling now seems to be where its basic level of demand is, and the months last year where it sold less than that were actually more about supply issues than they were about no one wanting to buy the system.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I think you're being a tad too conservative on the PS4 my friend. By the latest of July they should have a lead of 1 million units again. They have less than 400K units to go and five months to do so. If they average around 60k units monthly more than One through that time they'll be there by July.

"Exceed"

Sometimes you need to read my posts like you would a Microsoft PR statement. I think the gap will be over 1 million at that point. Not exactly 1 million.

 

[Massa]

Not even close. Heavy Rain cost $52M in total, with a team size and dev time fairly similar to The Order. Considering its not 2006-2010 anymore (budgets generally increased) and the fact The Order had more marketing than most other Sony titles its pretty safe to say the total budget is $60M+.

When The Order started development RAD had only 25 employees or so.

 

[IndoAssassin]

NPD USA: Feb 2014 Vs Feb 2015

The cumulative install base of PS4 and Xbox One in the USA has exceeded 14 million in March, PS4 has more than 52% share, Xbox One has less than 48% share. Worldwide install base is now over 31 million.

If it's only 4% difference in install base why are people surprised when xbox one software outsells PS4 software in the NPD's?

Last gen the the 360 almost doubled the PS3 install base in NA NA, yet some titles sold better on PS3.

 

[King Beyond the wall]

Halo in the US > MGS in the US

I mean, Halo 3 caused the 360 to be above the Wii in it's launch month.

I doubt that Halo5 will release in September (More likely November I think) and regardless of when it releases I think its opening will be much lower than prior entries in the series. The franchise has taken a bit of a beating with Halo 4 and the MCC, and I think people will be more cautious.

MGS5 will also push a lot of PS4s, especially with the inevitable huge marketing it will have. MGS4 doubled the PS3 sales in June 2008 (compared to the previous month) so MGS5 will push consoles too.

 

[...Scatter...]

The Division is still an XBO partnership right? Is that coming 2015 or 2016? This will get a Destiny type push if as good as expected. If I was MS I'm happy I got The Witcher partnership, but Id be loving to get in on Cyberpunk before Sony scoops it up. I have great expectations for that title.

 

[N.Domixis]

The Division is still an XBO partnership right? Is that coming 2015 or 2016? This will get a Destiny type push if as good as expected. If I was MS I'm happy I got The Witcher partnership, but Id be loving to get in on Cyberpunk before Sony scoops it up. I have great expectations for that title.

So you cant enjoy a game unless its marketed for your console?

 

[Pandora012]

If it's only 4% difference in install base why are people surprised when xbox one software outsells PS4 software in the NPD's?

Last gen the the 360 almost doubled the PS3 install base in NA NA, yet some titles sold better on PS3.

Because, do you not know? Playstation must win everything.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

The Division is still an XBO partnership right? Is that coming 2015 or 2016? This will get a Destiny type push if as good as expected. If I was MS I'm happy I got The Witcher partnership, but Id be loving to get in on Cyberpunk before Sony scoops it up. I have great expectations for that title.

The Witcher is traditionally a PC franchise, and even if it weren't, because of its technical requirements, most people are going to buy it on PC. Although The Division could be big if it's a good game.

 

[KillerMan91]

I also think its unfair to compare the sales of Zelda: MM to other titles.

PS4 and XB1 are still relatively new consoles. Its unfair to expect the sales of games for those platforms to match the sales of a game on 3DS, which has sold 10s of millions.

PS4 already sells more software monthly in US than 3DS. Home consoles move a lot more software than handhelds. Especially as 3DS is closer to PSP than to DS in terms of how much it moves software.

 

[xxracerxx]

The Division is still an XBO partnership right? Is that coming 2015 or 2016? This will get a Destiny type push if as good as expected. If I was MS I'm happy I got The Witcher partnership, but Id be loving to get in on Cyberpunk before Sony scoops it up. I have great expectations for that title.

Counterpoint...Sony may have Battlefront 3 marketing and they definitely have Batman and MGSV.

 

[sörine]

PS4 already sells more software monthly in US than 3DS. Home consoles move a lot more software than handhelds. Especially as 3DS is closer to PSP than to DS in terms of how much it moves software.

Hardware yes but software? Did PSP ever manage 2 exclusives in the NPD top 10?

 

[thebloo]

Not even close. Heavy Rain cost $52M in total, with a team size and dev time fairly similar to The Order. Considering its not 2006-2010 anymore (budgets generally increased) and the fact The Order had more marketing than most other Sony titles its pretty safe to say the total budget is $60M+.

It's not a proper comparison. QD tech is completely different from RAD's, so we can't really compare price. Also, Paris is a much more expensive city and RAD outsourced a lot of their work. It may as well be $60M, but not based on comparisons with Heavy Rain.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

The Division is still an XBO partnership right? Is that coming 2015 or 2016? This will get a Destiny type push if as good as expected. If I was MS I'm happy I got The Witcher partnership, but Id be loving to get in on Cyberpunk before Sony scoops it up. I have great expectations for that title.

Does it really matter? Xbox doesn't get anything for The Wicher 3, but some extra playing cards in the collector's edition. CD Projekt Red doesn't do exclusive content. All of the games you mentioned will probably perform better on PS4.

 

[Massa]

Could Sony actually do that?

Or would it be venturing into infringement territory?

I'm sure they could, but they're not Gameloft.

 

[theprodigy]

Hardware yes but software? Did PSP ever manage 2 exclusives in the NPD top 10?

That isn't a particularly useful metric, I'm pretty sure the PSP's software sales are more spread out than the 3DS.

(also more competition back then)

 

[allan-bh]

Marketing deals with third party games can do miracles! MS had big guns exclusives for Holidays 2014, but look how FH2, Halo : MCC, Sunset Overdrive ended up next Ass Creed Unity bundle! If true with Star Wars deal, ( Star Wars is a much bigger name than Uncharted ) that can be huge!

Halo 5, Forza 6 and Tomb Raider is a stronger package than Halo MCC, Horizon 2 and Sunset Overdrive. Furthermore we must see new announcements at E3.

Microsoft is very well positioned for holidays battle.

 

[GeoramA]

Counterpoint...Sony may have Battlefront 3 marketing and they definitely have Batman and MGSV.

Dead Island 2 as well.

 

[plasmawave]

They should just make Gran Turismo Auto. That'd sell.

No, they should make Wipeout Auto.

 

[sörine]

That isn't a particularly useful metric, I'm pretty sure the PSP's software sales are more spread out than the 3DS.

(also more competition back then)

Well, what metrics should we be using? Do we have comparable software figures at all?

 

[allan-bh]

Hardware yes but software? Did PSP ever manage 2 exclusives in the NPD top 10?

Yes. March 2008, God of War in 4th and Crisis Core in 5th. Despite that I agree that 3DS software sales seem way better than PSP.

 

[Conduit]

Counterpoint...Sony may have Battlefront 3 marketing and they definitely have Batman and MGSV.

And MKX deal also.

 

[Welfare]

They should just make Gran Turismo Auto. That'd sell.

Yeah, they could make it into a new series.

Gran Turismo Auto: 1
Gran Turismo Auto: London
Gran Turismo Auto: 2
Gran Turismo Auto: 3
Gran Turismo Auto: Miami
Gran Turismo Auto: Los Angeles
Gran Turismo Auto: 4
Gran Turismo Auto: 5

Sony, call me.

 

[Avatar1]

Halo 5, Forza 6 and Tomb Raider is a stronger package than Halo MCC, Horizon 2 and Sunset Overdrive. Furthermore we must see new announcements at E3.

Microsoft is very well positioned for holidays battle.

Prepare for more cgi. I think they have been announcing games waaay too early. Yes I know sony games get delayed and lol Driveclub and all that but Microsoft is showing cgi..not a single second of gameplay..for many of its announcements right now.

 

[CadetMahoney]

Amazing how much bone has going against it and still has a huge U.S. marketshare comparatively.

 

[shinra-bansho]

RE: handheld software
NDS Launch - 2007 ~69M
PSP Launch - 2007 ~40M
3DS Launch - 2013 est ~37.5M

As reported 02-14. Don't know if there's anything more recent or concrete.

 

[N.Domixis]

Halo 5, Forza 6 and Tomb Raider is a stronger package than Halo MCC, Horizon 2 and Sunset Overdrive. Furthermore we must see new announcements at E3.

Microsoft is very well positioned for holidays battle.

Forza wont do anything.

 

[ZhugeEX]

X360 - 160k (Feb 2006)


NPD February 2007
295k -PlayStation 2
127k -PlayStation 3
335k -Nintendo Wii
228k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2008
352k -PlayStation 2
281k -PlayStation 3
432k -Nintendo Wii
255k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2009
131k -PlayStation 2
276k -PlayStation 3
753k -Nintendo Wii
391k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2010
102k -PlayStation 2
360k -PlayStation 3
398k -Nintendo Wii
422k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2011
29k -PlayStation 2
403k -PlayStation 3
455k -Nintendo Wii
535k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2012
360k -PlayStation 3
228k -Nintendo Wii
426k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2013
263k -PlayStation 3
302k -Xbox 360

66k -Nintendo Wii U

NPD February 2014
103k -PlayStation 3
114k -Xbox 360

82k -Nintendo Wii U
270k -PlayStation 4
258k -Xbox One

Someone double check above^

 

[KillerMan91]

Hardware yes but software? Did PSP ever manage 2 exclusives in the NPD top 10?

PSPs software sales were a lot more spread between titles as it had more titles released. Don't have last years numbers but 2013 3DS moved less software than PSP in 2007 (in US of course). Last year might have been little different but still 3DS probably didn't beat PSPs 2008 by that much. Regarding of PS4 when Sony announced that 18.5 million sell trough for hw they also announced that PS4 had moved 81.8 million units of software globally (at the end of last year). Back at the end of 2013 they announced that PS4 had moved 9.7 million of software. Subtract that from last years number and you get 72.1 million units for whole 2014. 3DS moved 63.68 million units of software last year. Considering how PS4 has been selling next to nothing in Japan while it's the biggest market for 3DS it's pretty safe to say PS4 already moves more software in US.

 

[allan-bh]

Forza wont do anything.

Agree, but Halo 5 has way more appeal than Halo MCC and Rise of Tomb Raider the same against Sunset Overdrive.

 

[Welfare]

Someone double check above^

X360 - 160k (Feb 2006) should be 161k

PS4 2014 should be 269k

Besides that it looks good.

 

[Bgamer90]

Hah!

I don't know. They increased their lead by around 100k in Feb alone. That's against a cheaper XboxOne. If they drop to $299 this year I'd expect a 2 million unit lead to be the minimum by the holiday season. Last year they made a 1.3(ish) million unit lead with much closer months than this past month.

That sounds way too high. Would be very surprised by that. I'm honestly thinking that the gap won't get any bigger than it was last year.

The PS4 almost doubled the sales of the Xbox One last year in January; Sold 130K more than the Xbox One that month. That is more than the gap the PS4 had over the Xbox One in January and February of this year combined.

________________

I won't even try to wager a guess on how much Halo 5 will sell.

I can see anywhere between a paltry 2 million for the franchise and a complete recapture of the Halo 3 phenomenon.

That's pretty safe (haha). I don't think the series will ever get back to where it was with Halo 2 and 3 when it comes to popularity/launch impact (there's just too many shooters on consoles now in comparison to back then).

The game is Halo and it's the first true Halo on current gen so it's going to definitely do well.

__________

I doubt that Halo5 will release in September (More likely November I think) and regardless of when it releases I think its opening will be much lower than prior entries in the series. The franchise has taken a bit of a beating with Halo 4 and the MCC, and I think people will be more cautious.

I would be very surprised to see Halo 5 release in November. Going to be a whole lot of games coming out during that time and I'm almost positive that it will be the month that Tomb Raider releases. September would be much better.

MGS5 will also push a lot of PS4s, especially with the inevitable huge marketing it will have. MGS4 doubled the PS3 sales in June 2008 (compared to the previous month) so MGS5 will push consoles too.

While I still think that it's going to do much better on the PS4, MGS5 is still multiplat. MGS4 wasn't so that changes things a bit. A good number of Xbox 360 owners bought a PS3 for MGS back then.

 

[ZhugeEX]

X360 - 160k (Feb 2006) should be 161k

PS4 2014 should be 269k

Besides that it looks good.

Bruh........ Dat 1k difference..... come on......



Fixed:

X360 - 161k (Feb 2006)


NPD February 2007
295k -PlayStation 2
127k -PlayStation 3
335k -Nintendo Wii
228k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2008
352k -PlayStation 2
281k -PlayStation 3
432k -Nintendo Wii
255k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2009
131k -PlayStation 2
276k -PlayStation 3
753k -Nintendo Wii
391k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2010
102k -PlayStation 2
360k -PlayStation 3
398k -Nintendo Wii
422k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2011
29k -PlayStation 2
403k -PlayStation 3
455k -Nintendo Wii
535k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2012
360k -PlayStation 3
228k -Nintendo Wii
426k -Xbox 360

NPD February 2013
263k -PlayStation 3
302k -Xbox 360

66k -Nintendo Wii U

NPD February 2014
103k -PlayStation 3
114k -Xbox 360

82k -Nintendo Wii U
269k -PlayStation 4
258k -Xbox One

Someone double check above^

 

[Welfare]

Bruh........ Dat 1k difference..... come on......

Just looking for any differences