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NPD Sales Results for February 2015 [Nintendo Numbers, Majora's, MH4, ~XB1]

Well, March to April was a HUGE drop, which was then even worst in May thanks to the Kinect unbundling announcement.

XB1 Mar 2014 (5 weeks) - 311k (62,200 weekly)
XB1 Apr 2014 (4 weeks) - 115k (28,750 weekly) [(-63% MoM) (-54% WoW)]
XB1 May 2014 (4 weeks) - 77k (19,250 weekly) [(-33% MoM) (-33% WoW)]

With the MCC bundle plus Witcher 3, we should not see such drastic drops this year.

I don't think The Witcher 3 will do much for Xbox One. At least, it certainly isn't going to cause any effect on keeping the hardware from dropping. Not only is the franchise predominantly PC centric, but looking at pre-order charts on numerous websites, the PS4 version seems to be outpacing it.

The problem is that its a really neutral franchise which, despite having its predecessor console exclusive to 360, hasn't had the association with one particular brand long enough for it to make any meaningful difference for XB1, unless theres a bundle.
 
I agree with Nightingale's post above. For The Witcher 3 to sell well and more importantly, move systems, Microsoft needs to step up their marketing or else they literally wasted money on the partnership.

There's always some "throwaway" partnerships every now and then.

Shadow of Mordor was marketed alongside PlayStation, and DAI alongside Xbox, yet it felt like they were redheaded step child compared to golden boy Destiny and AssCreed Unity respectively.
 
I don't think The Witcher 3 will do much for Xbox One. At least, it certainly isn't going to cause any effect on keeping the hardware from dropping. Not only is the franchise predominantly PC centric, but looking at pre-order charts on numerous websites, the PS4 version seems to be outpacing it.

The problem is that its a really neutral franchise which, despite having its predecessor console exclusive to 360, hasn't had the association with one particular brand long enough for it to make any meaningful difference for XB1, unless theres a bundle.
Didn't they say the Xbone version has nothing extra? So it is just a difference in advertising between the two and most people would expect the PS4 version to run better at this point. Doesn't seem like that will make a difference for Microsoft.
 

Javin98

Banned
There's always some "throwaway" partnerships every now and then.

Shadow of Mordor was marketed alongside PlayStation, and DAI alongside Xbox, yet it felt like they were redheaded step child compared to golden boy Destiny and AssCreed Unity respectively.
LOL, what? I didn't even know those games were being marketed by Sony and Microsoft. Goes to show how bad their marketing was.
 
LOL, what? I didn't even know those games were being marketed by Sony and Microsoft. Goes to show how bad their marketing was.

Assuming it's presence at Sony's E3 2013 is an indication of marketing partnership, I expect Sony's redheaded step child this year to be Mad Max.

Because Big Boss .
 

Elandyll

Banned
February is always a big month for consoles. That still doesn't excuse Titanfall month being that small of bump.

Also if the Titanfall beta caused a bump in sales, the Destiny beta should've done the same to the PS4 then.

Nobody is claiming that Destiny didn't help back in September.
But you guys are comparing situations that maybe aren't that comparable (with Titanfall).

The Destiny bundle was also coming with a White PS4 which is exclusive to that bundle in NA, and is a design many had been clamoring for for months (I myself bought the Destiny Bundle for that console, not for the game which I could have done without tbh, though the -$10- (Gasp!) price reduction on it was welcome.

Will MGS V boost PS4 sales in the same way? Unlikely, as there will be no White PS4 effect on top of it.

But could MGS V on its own have a comparable effect to Destiny (if we could split the White PS4 from it)? I believe so, although obviously there'll be no way to tell either way in the end, unless there is absolutely -no- boost, which would be surprising imo.
 

Javin98

Banned
Assuming it's presence at Sony's E3 2013 is an indication of marketing partnership, I expect Sony's redheaded step child this year to be Mad Max.

Because Big Boss .
And Star Wars Battlefront. Because Master Yoda is a badass midget. XD
I have no idea what I'm talking about. I don't watch Star Wars. :p
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
In the words of ars technica.... "Don't read too much into it".

Lol this gave me a chuckle. The severity of the gap will depend heavily on the scores of Bloodborne. If the game gets masterpiece scores and acclaim - the word of mouth will be there...it will move consoles considerably. Amazon has yet to be wrong on trends in the U.S so far this gen. There is a sizable gap that screams 100K gap least. Depending on reviews, if I were Sony, I would have a bundle ready to go for April - download code.

As for the late discussion. Titanfall did get insane amounts of hype among the U.S/English speaking media. I mean it wasn't just MS or EA advertisement dollars doing the work but journalist (for "free" as enthusiast) too - "Believe the HYPE". Overall Destiny did probably have a bigger marketing budget and overall a bigger marketing push worldwide but "Hype" as in anticipation - fueled by the media, Titanfall had it easily over Destiny. Funny how Infamous held up in comparison in March - admirably.
 

onQ123

Member
Lol this gave me a chuckle. The severity of the gap will depend heavily on the scores of Bloodborne. If the game gets masterpiece scores and acclaim - the word of mouth will be there...it will move consoles considerably. Amazon has yet to be wrong on trends in the U.S so far this gen. Depending on reviews, if I were Sony, I would have a bundle ready to go for April - download code.

I think PS4 will be somewhere around 400K with Bloodborn only moving 300K
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I think PS4 will be somewhere around 400K with Bloodborn only moving 300K

I don't think Bloodborne will move 300k this month. Perhaps 100k-150k. I do think it has the potential to carry momentum to April if the game is bundled after review week. So in a cumulative sense 300k yeah...
 

Bgamer90

Banned
That's right, because PS4 is the only place to play Destiny!

Did you miss all of the advertising the game had with the PS4?

I mean, there is a reason why people (who got in trouble) at Xbox made that whole "Destiny fragrance" ad.

________

Lol this gave me a chuckle. The severity of the gap will depend heavily on the scores of Bloodborne. If the game gets masterpiece scores and acclaim - the word of mouth will be there...it will move consoles considerably. Amazon has yet to be wrong on trends in the U.S so far this gen. There is a sizable gap that screams 100K gap least.

You guys need to stop doing this after how much this line of thinking has failed in the past.

Amazon shouldn't be used in this fashion.
 
Did you miss all of the advertising the game had with the PS4?

I mean, there is a reason why people (who got in trouble) at Xbox made that whole "Destiny fragrance" ad.

________



You guys need to stop doing this after how much this line of thinking has failed in the past.

Amazon shouldn't be used in this fashion.

They were closer in ranks last month and the gap was still pretty big. Now it seems there farther apart so it's not entirely out of the question to assume that it could indicate a 100k+ gap.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
You guys need to stop doing this after how much this line of thinking has failed in the past.

Amazon shouldn't be used in this fashion.

Of course not. Just speculation.

When the race is tight, with both consoles trading spots but a console consistently being on top, say #6 vs. #8, or #10. I say gap is roughly 50k-60k. When that gap widens, #6 vs. #15-30, like in the big disparity months, 100k is in order.
 

Javin98

Banned
Did you miss all of the advertising the game had with the PS4?

I mean, there is a reason why people (who got in trouble) at Xbox made that whole "Destiny fragrance" ad.

________



You guys need to stop doing this after how much this line of thinking has failed in the past.

Amazon shouldn't be used in this fashion.
Did you see Abdiel's posts by any chance? The MCC bundle is not doing very well in Best Buy as well. So it's not just Amazon. Besides, this ~100K gap is just a prediction. It could be wrong.
 
Nobody is claiming that Destiny didn't help back in September.
But you guys are comparing situations that maybe aren't that comparable (with Titanfall).

The Destiny bundle was also coming with a White PS4 which is exclusive to that bundle in NA, and is a design many had been clamoring for for months (I myself bought the Destiny Bundle for that console, not for the game which I could have done without tbh, though the -$10- (Gasp!) price reduction on it was welcome.

In addition the Xbox One Titanfall bundle only went available for pre-order a month in advance, when the Destiny bundle was pre-orderable for 3 months. This has the side effect of dumping more consoles in to a single month.
 

donny2112

Member
It's content driven too.
Pubs notice the trend awhile ago and that's why you generally get some decent games in Feb...

Good! Would hate for games that deserve the attention to get mistakenly pushed somewhere else less amenable (e.g. crowded March) when there's some kind of surge happening in February. That part about not missing the FY probably just adds the the fact that April and May are down, down, down before stabilizing some over summer. May big games are probably more for getting prepped for Summer, too, since HW in May isn't much to write home about.
 

Conduit

Banned
LOL, what? Pre order is higher on PS4? Damn, what is the point of Microsoft even paying for marketing deal then? They are hardly doing anything to promote it.

Maybe resolution difference? :D Extra cards won't do shit for Xbone.

I agree with Nightingale's post above. For The Witcher 3 to sell well and more importantly, move systems, Microsoft needs to step up their marketing or else they literally wasted money on the partnership.

Dragon Age : Inqusition didn't do shit. How you can expect that Witcher 3 will do better?
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Of course not. Just speculation.

When the race is tight, with both consoles trading spots but a console consistently being on top, say #6 vs. #8, or #10. I say gap is roughly 50k-60k. When that gap widens, #6 vs. #15-30, like in the big disparity months, 100k is in order.

They were closer in ranks last month and the gap was still pretty big. Now it seems there farther apart so it's not entirely out of the question to assume that it could indicate a 100k+ gap.

The current disparity on Amazon is similar to what we saw in February last year yet NPD showed the Xbox One was only behind by 10K.

And (as I've said before) we don't know what impact the MCC bundle is having on the Unity bundle's rank -- the latter would probably be listed a bit higher if the MCC bundle didn't exitst. It's simply not a good tool to use for gaps.

____________________

Did you see Abdiel's posts by any chance? The MCC bundle is not doing very well in Best Buy as well. So it's not just Amazon. Besides, this ~100K gap is just a prediction. It could be wrong.

I'm not referring to how the bundles are doing. I'm 100% positive the PS4 is going to take March; Simply saying that it's faulty to use Amazon sales rank to predict the size of a gap.
 

Lemondish

Member
There's also the tax return theory, yes. And like last year, there was the Titanfall leadup. There's some reasons for individual system increases, but it's that so many systems bump that month that something more widespread has to be going on. What you said is a good reason, tax returns (maybe the ones that give you a loan based on the expected tax return, b/c that'd be a fast turnaround to get it and spend it all within February otherwise), recovering from general January fatigue. It's just that it's usually a bump in February, the reasons are basically just theories that happen to fit the facts, so it seems weird. Someone should do a study!

E-filing with a free online service from TaxACT or TurboTax the moment you receive your W2s can ensure direct deposit arrives in the first or second week of Feb. No loan needed. That's what literally everyone I know did (and why they all have PS4s to play with me now :-D )
 
A Batman Themed Ps4 or a MGSV bundle Could easily touch the Destiny bundle. If Sony happens to do both, they would destroy the Destiny bundle numbers.

Not a chance. The only way that even has a remote shot of happening is if the bundles is if they're priced at $299, which would really be the price moving consoles more so than those games. Destiny moved hundreds of thousands of consoles in the US at above the PS4's MSRP($450). The only question is when will Sony drop the price? September? November? or Spring 2016?
It will surely be after a potential Batman bundle and most likely be after the MGSV bundle imo.

The Destiny bundle did extremely well. The thirst for Destiny(and the white PS4) was real. The PS4 got 300k sales just from the bundle in September(basically around what Sony's Black Friday GTA bundle did) and it continued selling well for the rest of the year(another 100k in October just from the bundle iirc) That's insane for a bundle released before the holiday.

The Destiny bundle was also coming with a White PS4 which is exclusive to that bundle in NA, and is a design many had been clamoring for for months (I myself bought the Destiny Bundle for that console, not for the game which I could have done without tbh, though the -$10- (Gasp!) price reduction on it was welcome.

Will MGS V boost PS4 sales in the same way? Unlikely, as there will be no White PS4 effect on top of it.

Important point. I agree.
 

Biker19

Banned
349 with MCC just isn't that great of a deal anymore.

With XB1s largely being available at 349 with 2-3 games in the past 5 months without any shortage concerns, and MCC being available cheap with Gold deals among other things, it's just... not notably appealing.

Agreed...plus people aren't that excited over the Assassin's Creed Bundle anymore, as those games are now old as dirt (Black Flag is much, much older than Unity is as a matter of fact).

Microsoft needs to come up with something new & exciting, but so far, they haven't got it yet.

Edit: Aquamarine, you'll definitely be missed. It's sad to see you go. :(
 
Dragon Age : Inqusition didn't do shit. How you can expect that Witcher 3 will do better?

The Witcher 3 will sell far more than Dragon Age.
However, I don't think The Witcher 3 will move many XB1s because it's more of a PC-centric franchise even though 2 released on 360. The only way I see it moving a significant amount of consoles is if Microsoft bundles it.
 

Rymuth

Member
I'm not sure what Shogun is seeing in Gamestop, or Cornbread in Walmart... But the MCC bundle really hasn't done much to increase momentum. There's been some really toxic impressions floating around for a long time of the MCC. It's just kind of selling at the same or slower (Not drastically slower, as far as I can tell at least) pace than the AC bundles were, since there's not a big driving force behind it.
Oooh an Abdiel post!

Looking forward to your BB impressions l, cheers.
 

Javin98

Banned
Maybe resolution difference? :D Extra cards won't do shit for Xbone.



Dragon Age : Inqusition didn't do shit. How you can expect that Witcher 3 will do better?
I'm not expecting it to do better. Just hoping Microsoft at least does something to promote the game after paying for marketing rights. I was surprised to find out that the preorder numbers were actually better on PS4 when it should be the other way around. Not to mention The Witcher 2 was console exclusive to the 360. At this rate, I'm almost certain May will be very slow for the XB1 even with The Witcher 3 releasing.

The current disparity on Amazon is similar to what we saw in February last year yet NPD showed the Xbox One was only behind by 10K.

And (as I've said before) we don't know what impact the MCC bundle is having on the Unity bundle's rank -- the latter would probably be listed a bit higher if the MCC bundle didn't exitst. It's simply not a good tool to use for gaps.

____________________



I'm not referring to how the bundles are doing. I'm 100% positive the PS4 is going to take March; Simply saying that it's faulty to use Amazon sales rank to predict the size of a gap.
Eh, whatever. You don't seem to see the point. Have it your way and agree to disagree.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
I'm not sure why folks are debating how big Destiny turned out to be. When the PS4 sold over 500K and the XB1 over 250K that September when Destiny released, it was pretty clear it was huge. I'm inclined to side with bgamer. I'm pretty sure the game sold 3M+ on launch across 4 platforms in the US, which is insane for a new IP. It was pretty damn big. It's anecdotal, but seriously everyone I knew went and bought Destiny after a lot of them hadn't bought a game in a while. The marketing seemed to work. Titanfall sold about 1.5M close to launch across XB1 + 360 (2 months there since split launches), so it was fairly big too. No idea how big MGSV will be, but it's not going to be easy selling more than Destiny at launch imo.

Also what's with the all the Amazon ranking postings. Jeez... by this logic Majora's Mask is still doing ridiculously well on the charts given it's the only old game on there consistently charting (which may be indicative of the larger market, but Amazon is only 6% of the US games market).

Anything actually interesting to add to this convo Harker? Wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts on the Feb sales rather than these circular arguments about XB1 & PS4 future sales with the little info we're aware of.
 
The Witcher 3 will sell far more than Dragon Age.
However, I don't think The Witcher 3 will move many XB1s because it's more of a PC-centric franchise even though 2 released on 360. The only way I see it moving a significant amount of consoles is if Microsoft bundles it.

You are aware that Dragon Age sold something like 600K+ in it's first month, right? The only reason it didn't chart is because November is an insanely difficult month to chart in. As in that number would have been tops for about half the months of last year. If we're including PC sales, I could see how someone might say that, but if we aren't (and especially if we're just talking NPD), I don't see how that's going happen.
 
You are aware that Dragon Age sold something like 600K+ in it's first month, right? The only reason it didn't chart is because November is an insanely difficult month to chart in. As in that number would have been tops for about half the months of last year. If we're including PC sales, I could see how someone might say that, but if we aren't (and especially if we're just talking NPD), I don't see how that's going happen.

I'm well aware of how much it sold. It was 500k+ I believe, but yeah I definitely see Witcher 3 beating that total handily. Hell, even Evolve sold nearly 500k last month and The Witcher 3 has way more hype than Evolve did.
 

Chobel

Member
The Witcher 3 will sell far more than Dragon Age.
However, I don't think The Witcher 3 will move many XB1s because it's more of a PC-centric franchise even though 2 released on 360. The only way I see it moving a significant amount of consoles is if Microsoft bundles it.

If we're talking consoles in US then I very much doubt that, DA:I did more than 600K in its first month.

Edit: Beaten.
 
I'm well aware of how much it sold. It was 500k+ I believe, but yeah I definitely see Witcher 3 beating that total handily. Hell, even Evolve sold nearly 500k last month and The Witcher 3 has way more hype than Evolve did.

I'll put this another way. I believe that the games that topped 600k in their first month last year consisted of Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Madden, Destiny, NBA2K15, FIFA, Super Smash Bros, Call of Duty, Far Cry, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Pokemon, and Halo: MCC. And that's pretty much it (I may be missing one or two from the Sept-Nov NPDs). Does The Witcher have anywhere near the buzz of any of those games?
 
I think you are vastly overrating The Wticher's appeal, especially on consoles.

If we're talking consoles in US then I very much doubt that, DA:I did more than 600K in its first month.

Edit: Beaten.

No way The Witcher does less in its first month than Dragon Age imo.(unless it's a trainwreck on console) It might not be as big of a disparity(in terms of NPD) as I was thinking at first though because I forgot Dragon Age also released on 360/PS3, but there will be in terms of current gen sales.
 

Biker19

Banned
Unlike MGS4, MGS5 is available on every platform including last gen and PC.

Maybe I'm underestimating that series because quite frankly I think it's bad but I really don't think it's going to be a console pusher like Destiny or MGS4 was. There is a good chance if someone really wants to play it they already have a device they can play it on. On the flip side Destiny and MGS4 were sole reasons for people to pick up this respective consoles.

To be honest, most Japanese games/series like MGS have always sold best on Playstation platforms. MGS V won't be any different just because it's multiplatform.

Most Xbox owners don't care about most Japanese-made games, nor do Japanese gamers care about PC gaming or Xbox in general.
 
No way The Witcher does less in its first month than Dragon Age imo.(unless it's a trainwreck on console) It might not be as big of a disparity(in terms of NPD) as I was thinking at first though because I forgot Dragon Age also released on 360/PS3, but there will be in terms of current gen sales.

Dragon Age Inquisition has an 88 Metascore(PS4), won a lot of GOTY awards and comes from on of the most well-known developers in Bioware. Unless I am missing something what has the The Witcher series done to be considered so superior in your mind that it can't possibly sell less?
 
I'll put this another way. I believe that the games that topped 600k in their first month last year consisted of Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Madden, Destiny, NBA2K15, FIFA, Super Smash Bros, Call of Duty, Far Cry, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Pokemon, and Halo: MCC. And that's pretty much it (I may be missing one or two from the Sept-Nov NPDs). Does The Witcher have anywhere near the buzz of any of those games?

I definitely think it will have similar hype to Far Cry/MCC by the time it's released and it basically has no competition in May unlike Dragon Age so yes I could see it doing 600k as long as it reviews well.

Dragon Age Inquisition has an 88 Metascore(PS4), won a lot of GOTY awards and comes from on of the most well-known developers in Bioware. Unless I am missing something what has the The Witcher series done to be considered so superior in your mind that it can't possibly sell less?

Dragon Age never had the type of buzz The Witcher 3 has(it didn't have much buzz at all really until reviews started pouring out apart from the Bioware faithful). The Witcher 3 is constantly winning reader's choice awards as well from big sites like IGN. I think it's going to do better than some of you are expecting.
 

Chobel

Member
I definitely think it will have similar hype to Far Cry/MCC by the time it's released and it basically has no competition in May unlike Dragon Age so yes I could see it doing 600k as long as it reviews well.

Far Cry and Halo are big franchises with big mainstream appeal (In US), the previous "The Witcher" games didn't have that appeal mainly because the games are eastern European RPGs, why do you think this will change now?

Also, forum hype generally has no correlation with the amount of sales.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Eh, whatever. You don't seem to see the point. Have it your way and agree to disagree.

Yep. I don't see the point since Amazon has failed in terms of it being used to predict monthly gaps between consoles many times.

Simply discussing it in any relation to how big a gap will be doesn't make sense to me.
 
Far Cry and Halo are big franchises with big mainstream appeal (In US), the previous "The Witcher" games didn't have that appeal mainly because the games are eastern European RPGs, why do you think this will change now?

Also, forum hype generally has no correlation with the amount of sales.

Obviously it's nowhere near Halo in the US, but a Halo remaster collection? I could see it selling on a similar level. Remasters do not sell anything like mainline games. This is the first time consoles are getting a simultaneous release. It's never been marketed to consoles this much before either.

I didn't say anything about forum hype unless you're referring to the reader's choice awards. It won E3 Reader's choice on IGN two years in a row so I definitely think it's going to do well if it's regarded that highly on the most mainstream gaming website there is.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I'll put this another way. I believe that the games that topped 600k in their first month last year consisted of Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Madden, Destiny, NBA2K15, FIFA, Super Smash Bros, Call of Duty, Far Cry, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Pokemon, and Halo: MCC. And that's pretty much it (I may be missing one or two from the Sept-Nov NPDs). Does The Witcher have anywhere near the buzz of any of those games?

Well you're missing alright :) ISS
 
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