-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for November 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
Stumpokapow said:I'm not making the bets because I want to, I'm making the bets because your arguments are so terrible that I couldn't possibly lose them. Hell, I'll bet $200 against your $50 or a permaban against your temp-ban that DA:O PS3 broke 150k. I can't overstate my confidence here that your argumentation is poor.
Here are the arguments you've made so far:
- To syllogism, that DA:O did not outsell Mass Effect 1, which it clearly did.
- To me, that the 1.5:1 - 3:1 ratio range for 360S3 is invalid in general or doesn't apply here, when it clearly does.
- To me, that DA:O's sales don't "count" as a win because "it had four weeks", which is irrelevant and bizarre. It's bizarre every time someone makes that argument on one data point, because we don't have a clue if DA:O had a big opening week and 3 weak weeks, or three equal weeks, or the same fact for Mass Effect. You seemed to use "Mass Effect made the NPD top 10 in its second month" as some sort of secondary proof here, and that wasn't even true as a two minute Google search could demonstrate.
If you feel that you've come out of this exchange having persuasively argued for why Dragon Age did not do well and did not beat out Mass Effect's first month, good on you, but I don't think anyone else reading is likely to see things the same way.
If he's a sensible guy he'll do no such thing until I con you into taking this bet so you can't retroactively avoid it.
I said roughly in the 150k range. I could be off. I have no problem admitting that, but again it doesn't matter because even if it did 20k more than or 30 the win would be ridiculous comparison as it so little that Dec NPD would make it look like a total joke.
Ehh wrong I'm using real deal numbers here;
Mass Effect* (Xbox 360) 401K
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_December_2007
As a 2 second google search would provide.
Also for the record I'm not arguing that DA did not do well. Let's be clear on that first. I bought the game and supported it day one with all the DLC trimmings. I want the game to do well first and foremost.
Psychotext
Member
Scroll up the page and look at my big ass post. (Last page if you're on 50 per page)JudgeN said:
Edit - Already answered.
Opus Angelorum
Member
borghe said:
The PS3 sales were pretty impressive, no doubt. However, the various reports of Sony having turned the corner are widely exaggerated.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Stumpokapow said:
Actually, you shouldn't because I think both sides of the bet get the ban.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
BenjaminBirdie said:
Well then I guess we'll make it the cash bet
Jtyettis said:
Actually initially you called bullshit on DA:O beating ME and then backed it up by calling bullshit on the 1.5:1-3:1 ratio multiplier and backed that up by using Borderlands, of all games, as an example.
With logic like that, I can't stress that I will bet _any amount of cash_ against _any amount of your cash_--I'm serious, I'll bet $1000 against $50 if you want me to--that DA:O (360+PS3) beat ME1's first month by a minimum of 50k (IE DA:O did a minimum of 525k).
Your argument at this point appears to be that if you compare Mass Effect's best platform against Dragon Age's two worst platforms and ignore first month and lifetime sales, Mass Effect's second month is going to beat Dragon Age's second month? Err, maybe, but that's a pretty bizarre claim.
Stumpokapow said:
I can't find first month figures for Fallout 3 (PS3), and I know its not the perfect WRPG comparison due to the heavy focus on shooting things, but sales for both versions of Fallout 3 through January 2009 were 1.14M (360) and 452k (PS3) (source: NPD leaked number from Feb 2009 NPD thread).
PS3 version sold about 40% of the 360 version. If Dragon Age had a similar split, the PS3 version would have sold 144k copies in its first month.
However, the PS3 port of Dragon Age is on par with the 360 version (I have heard cases for both ports being slightly better for different reasons). This was not the case with Fallout 3, where the PS3 port was definitely the poorest of the three. That fact, along with the title not being in the first person perspective with an emphasis on shooting things, might help the PS3:360 ratio.
Stumpokapow said:Well then I guess we'll make it the cash bet
Actually initially you called bullshit on DA:O beating ME and then backed it up by calling bullshit on the 1.5:1-3:1 ratio multiplier and backed that up by using Borderlands, of all games, as an example.
With logic like that, I can't stress that I will bet _any amount of cash_ against _any amount of your cash_--I'm serious, I'll bet $1000 against $50 if you want me to--that DA:O (360+PS3) beat ME1's first month by a minimum of 50k (IE DA:O did a minimum of 525k).
Your argument at this point appears to be that if you compare Mass Effect's best platform against Dragon Age's two worst platforms and ignore first month and lifetime sales, Mass Effect's second month is going to beat Dragon Age's second month? Err, maybe, but that's a pretty bizarre claim.
What do we have PC sales or am I dreaming? Initially I asked the question if we had the real numbers. No we do not so you speculated which is fine, but I said yea it's possible it didn't and even it did the 50k you say it wouldn't matter because the comparison is a total joke come Dec NPD because the one platform will very likely be on top with nearly 900k alone and that is not even to mention the huge base differences we have today.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
kswiston said:
I don't blame you for using FO3 as a comparison, it's probably the closest one there is that we have figures for. Obviously Sacred 2 would be a better example but we have no numbers, so tough tiddy on that one
But in the case of Fallout, it's Exclusive content for 360 + all marketing for 360 version + poor performance on PS3 version. You note the third factor in your summary and the general genre tilt if you consider it as an FPS, but the marketing and exclusive content are probably at least as important as those other factors.
Still, I think you can agree that if you look at historical software, 1.5:1 to 3:1 is a pretty safe range, and breaks on either side of those or even tilts towards either side of those tend to be because of the obvious factors you and I have mentioned.
Lostconfused
Member
Not to mention that the ratio has been shifting in the favor of the PS3 for the last couple of months and Borderlands seems to be an anomaly.kswiston said:
Jtyettis said:
Assuming at least 500k combined this month, I think that DA:O could hit 900k total by the end of Dec 09. December is the strongest month for software sales, November launches have historically had great hold overs in November, and big wrpgs this generation have shown decent legs.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Jtyettis said:
Of course not and if it pains you to mentally even consider PC sales, ignore them from my point entirely.
I'm telling you my comparison isn't a speculation because the entire spectrum of reasonability tells us that DA:O sold enough on PS3 that it beat ME1's launch month.
The problem isn't the argument that either DA:O or ME1 would win after two months, the problem is the absolutely terrible logic you're using to predict that... which is basically that Dragon Age released earlier in November 2009 than Mass Effect did in November 2007 and thus Mass Effect must have better legs.
1) We do not have weekly numbers so we have no idea if Dragon Age was very frontloaded in the month, normally frontloaded in the month, or grew week on week.
2) We do not have weekly numbers so we have no idea if Mass Effect was very frontloaded in the first month, normally frontloaded in the first month, or grew week on week.
3) Mass Effect got 18th place in December 2007 as you yourself have come to note. The 400k it did in December was not a result of "holding" better than most November releases, it was a result of the natural ramp up from November to December. You have no reason to believe the same thing won't happen to any other particular title.
4) If anything, the fact that November 2009 had literally the largest software launch of all time competing against Dragon Age and December 2009 has literally the weakest December console lineup of all time (cf November/December 2007 which were both much more moderate) contributes evidence that DA's hold ought to be better.
None of this means anything about what the tally will be, it simply means that your "IT WAS OUT FOR FOUR WEEKS" like of argumentation was dumb a page ago and it's still dumb now.
Stumpokapow said:
Ok fair enough we can wait for Dec NPD. Hopefully we get those DA numbers which I highly doubt. I hold to my point ME will very likely outsell DA over time with one platform in the US versus two and versus two years later.
kswiston said:
Yea I would have never made this argument with Fallout 3. It had a huge marketing push with an established IP. It also has the exclusive DLC marketed again very heavily. This not only appealed to the RPG crowd, but the shooter aspects made it basically the perfect WRPG for the 360 crowd. It also had very high reviews and good word of mouth plus winning tons of GOTY awards. I had no doubts in my mind that Fallout 3 would be huge. This same kind of marketing push isn't there for DA however.
True story
Guy at the gas station down the street from me said he wants to get a ps3 for blu ray
I agree that Sony has kiinda sorta turned a corner but I think not entirely with actual sales I think mindshare wise though they've improved a lot
it's a really small corner basically lol
just jumpin in there lol continue
Guy at the gas station down the street from me said he wants to get a ps3 for blu ray
I agree that Sony has kiinda sorta turned a corner but I think not entirely with actual sales I think mindshare wise though they've improved a lot
it's a really small corner basically lol
just jumpin in there lol continue
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
J Trett said:
Am I wrong or does that sound like advance damage control for next month?
(Note: I may be wrong.)
JoshuaJSlone
Member
And if they do, Wii didn't so much narrow its lead as fall further behind.AniHawk said:
TheKingsCrown
Banned
I think there might be some early evidence that New Super Mario Bros. Wii is a system seller...
TheKingsCrown said:
I'm sure some people bought a Wii for NSMB, but I doubt the Wii hardware number for the month would have been that much lower if NSMB Wii didn't ship.
EDIT: To clarify, November starts the holiday rush. Wiis are still popular presents, even if the system is not permanently sold out any more. There could have been no Wii releases in November, and I am sure the system would have still approached or crossed 1M sales.
sloppyjoe_gamer
Gold Member
Very surprised that 360 outsold PS3 again already. No surprise that Nintendo rules all though...:lol
Sony has nothing to be ashamed of with these current numbers. Compared to last year this is an amazing improvement. Lots of good stuff coming in 2010, so it's still a great time to jump on the PS3 bandwagon. Unbelieveable that the PS2 is still selling so well....
As much as many of you disagree, i still think that as soon as PS2 sales drop off, Sony's going to announce PS2 games on PSN, or full PS2 compatability on all PS3's via firmware.
Sony has nothing to be ashamed of with these current numbers. Compared to last year this is an amazing improvement. Lots of good stuff coming in 2010, so it's still a great time to jump on the PS3 bandwagon. Unbelieveable that the PS2 is still selling so well....
As much as many of you disagree, i still think that as soon as PS2 sales drop off, Sony's going to announce PS2 games on PSN, or full PS2 compatability on all PS3's via firmware.
MidgarBlowedUp
Member
Good job Sony, I wouldn't be surprised if this continuous boost of sales puts PS3 worldwide sales beyond Xbox360 by the middle of next year.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Taurus said:
The forces need to fall back and regroup who will be there to fight the xbots if and when FFXIII sells more on the 360 apart from doubledex and lowrider?
longdi
Banned
wait the hell, mw2 is bigger than halo now? :lol
the sales of ps3 is disappointing. it must be said the americans have snubbed sony console this gen. confirmed, chopped and guarantee! i think ms can sit back all comfy waiting for Natal development to finish. Once done and launched i have feeling Natal will put a sock and an end to ps3 and its "gem" this gen in america.
the sales of ps3 is disappointing. it must be said the americans have snubbed sony console this gen. confirmed, chopped and guarantee! i think ms can sit back all comfy waiting for Natal development to finish. Once done and launched i have feeling Natal will put a sock and an end to ps3 and its "gem" this gen in america.
Arpharmd B
Banned
sloppyjoe_gamer said:
When will this ever happen? The damn thing is 9 years old and flat yoy.
plagiarize
Banned
Cape Cod Mall was sold out of 120gig Slims Wednesday night. an isolated report i know, but shows that Tretton isn't necessarily full of it this time.gofreak said:
whether it's demand or supply is anyone's guess until we get sales figures for December, but there are shortages in some places at least even if they're are isolated.
i feel i should point out that i'm unaware of any shortages last month! i'm not trying to spin anything just pointing out that some areas are indeed in short supply.
Clockblockers
Member
Sean said:
I hope it's not dead but you have a good point with the instruments. Guitar Hero World Tour and Rock Band 2 should have been the last games to release instrument bundles with there games. After that, DLC and disc releases should have been the focus. The instruments are fine as they are; there is no reason to have so many bundles out there clogging up the store displays.
Hopefully both Activision and Harmonix slow down for the time being and allow the gerne to breath.
tass0 said:
I was thinking the same thing after watching all of the Best Buy commercials. I'd like to think that the average consumer is smart enough to know what system a major game is on; but with the amount of money spent on marketing for some of these games there must be a lot of people who disagree with me.
Digital-Hero
Member
longdi said:
You over exaggerate to a severe fault. I hope you are just joking.
Arpharmd B
Banned
longdi said:
It's safe to say, MW2 Haloed Halo.
I mean by comparison, Halo is like the other franchise now. You know, the underground franchise that only sold 3 million opening month. That's fucking insane.
Similar threads
- Locked