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[Heisenberg007]

I don't think they've ever said the divide between PC and Console game pass subscribers.

But let's say it was 3, 159% growth year over year brings it almost up to 5 million. If there were 10 million PC game pass subscribers by the time they released the last official tally of 25m years ago, that means over the year they went from 10 to 16~ million PC subscribers in total owing to that 159% growth, yoy, if it stays at that number and doesn't decrease (or increase)

Not factoring in the quadruple thing, which if it involves the greater Asian market, not just Japan, could very well be a sizable increase.

I think we found out about that number somewhere (can't recall the exact source), but from what I can remember, it was after the 159% growth. So 3 million in total after the jump, not 5 million.

And as yazenov pointed out, Game Pass hasn't grown after that. This is evident by (1) the fact that Microsoft hasn't announced numbers in two years, (2) Phil confirmed in courts that GP hasn't grown, and (3) that the subscription market has plateaued, as can be seen by hard data.

 

[adamsapple]

I think we found out about that number somewhere (can't recall the exact source), but from what I can remember, it was after the 159% growth. So 3 million in total after the jump, not 5 million.

And as yazenov pointed out, Game Pass hasn't grown after that. This is evident by (1) the fact that Microsoft hasn't announced numbers in two years, (2) Phil confirmed in courts that GP hasn't grown, and (3) that the subscription market has plateaued, as can be seen by hard data.

For points 1 and 2, we can assume they were reluctant to reveal official numbers to appear sympathetic for the courts, even in that FTC mention, Phil said "highly confidential" when they asked.

I would love for them to reveal official numbers updated to 2023/2024. I've said as much more than a few times across various topics.

For points 3, It may have plateaued in some other cases for sure but pretty much every Xbox/MS quarterly report mentions how growth in game pass has helped offset the declines from other segments. It doesn't look like GP growth has hit a plateau yet, or they're successfully expanding in off-console areas, as they wanted to.

Q4 2022

Xbox content and services revenue decreased 6% driven by lower engagement hours and monetization in third-party and first-party content, offset in part by growth in Xbox Game Pass subscriptions

Q1 2023

Xbox content and services revenue decreased 3% driven by declines in first-party content and in third-party content, with lower engagement hours and higher rate of monetization, offset in part by growth in Xbox Game Pass subscriptions.

Q2 2023

The decline was partially offset by continued growth in Xbox Game Pass, which has been a persistent highlight for Microsoft quarter after quarter.

Q3 2023

As for the slight increase in Xbox content and services revenue, Hood said it was driven by "better-than-expected monetization in third-party and first-party content and growth in Xbox Game Pass."

Q4 2023

Xbox content and services revenue was up 5%, driven by growth in third-party content and Xbox Game Pass.

Q1 2024

Xbox generated $3.9bn USD in gaming revenue - equating to a 9 percent year-on-year increase - which the company attributed to strong performance from first-party titles and Game Pass.

 

[Heisenberg007]

For points 1 and 2, we can assume they were reluctant to reveal official numbers to appear sympathetic for the courts, even in that FTC mention, Phil said "highly confidential" when they asked.

I would love for them to reveal official numbers updated to 2023/2024. I've said as much more than a few times across various topics.

For points 3, It may have plateaued in some other cases for sure but pretty much every Xbox/MS quarterly report mentions how growth in game pass has helped offset the declines from other segments. It doesn't look like GP growth has hit a plateau yet, or they're successfully expanding in off-console areas, as they wanted to.

Why do we have to assume anything, my friend?

When specifically asked about growth after the "highly confidential" reply, they literally said (in court) that Game Pass has not grown since. That seals it, coming directly from the official source.

Then the subscription market data also reaffirms that there indeed hasn't been any growth in the subscription market.

 

[adamsapple]

Why do we have to assume anything, my friend?

When specifically asked about growth after the "highly confidential" reply, they literally said (in court) that Game Pass has not grown since. That seals it, coming directly from the official source.

Then the subscription market data also reaffirms that there indeed hasn't been any growth in the subscription market.

Ok, let's not assume anything.

My post has links and summaries to the last six quarterly earnings reports where game pass's growth is specifically cited as a notable thing to offset decline in other segments. That too, coming directly from the official source.

The subscription market data that shows lack of growth includes services like PSN, which gains a million, then loses a million, then gains it, the loses more again per their earnings. Game Pass is just one subscription in a market which has a dozen or more of it.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Ok, let's not assume anything.

My post has links and summaries to the last six quarterly earnings reports where game pass's growth is specifically cited as a notable thing to offset decline in other segments. That too, coming directly from the official source.

The subscription market data that shows lack of growth includes services like PSN, which gains a million, then loses a million, then gains it, the loses more again per their earnings. Game Pass is just one subscription in a market which has a dozen or more of it.

You do realize that those offsets are referring to revenue, not the number of subscribers, right?

So GP could still be at 25 million, but the revenue could have increased if more people moved from GP to GPU. Also, Microsoft increased Game Pass price, which would also lead to an increase in revenue. The conversion ratio is also not as good as before now, which would also increase revenue.

 

[adamsapple]

You do realize that those offsets are referring to revenue, not the number of subscribers, right?

So GP could still be at 25 million, but the revenue could have increased if more people moved from GP to GPU. Also, Microsoft increased Game Pass price, which would also lead to an increase in revenue. The conversion ratio is also not as good as before now, which would also increase revenue.

GP's price increased a few months ago, the upswing has been reported in the quarterly reports long before. Also, the conversion thing is something only forum-worms like us know, it's not something the average subscriber would know, since it isn't exactly advertised anywhere on the app or the console dashboard. Don't forget, Satya proclaimed that they saw record number of new GP subscriptions for Starfield, even if that record isn't 20 million in one day, it's still a positive trend in the service's continued growth.

tl;dr the 2027 'deadline' comment has been weaponized to an extremely illogical degree.

 

[Heisenberg007]

GP's price increased a few months ago, the upswing has been reported in the quarterly reports long before. Also, the conversion thing is something only forum-worms like us know, it's not something the average subscriber would know, since it isn't exactly advertised anywhere on the app or the console dashboard. Don't forget, Satya proclaimed that they saw record number of new GP subscriptions for Starfield, even if that record isn't 20 million in one day, it's still a positive trend in the service's continued growth.

tl;dr the 2027 'deadline' comment has been weaponized to an extremely illogical degree.

You're still ignoring what I said: the offset is for revenue, not the number of subscribers.

They saw a record number of new GP subscribers for Starfield. But you don't know the number of subscribers they lost before it. How can you say for sure that Starfield's launch increased the total number of GP subscribers and not just offset the previous loss, back to 25 million subscribers?

Keeping aside assumptions, the only facts we know are:

• Phil confirmed in court, under oath, that Game Pass has not grown.
• The market data confirms that gaming subscription services have not grown.
• Phil said that if they don't get to 100 million subscribers by 2027, they will have to quit gaming.

There is nothing illogical by anyone if they repeat what the Head of Microsoft Gaming has already confirmed publicly.

 

[Edmund]

2024 will be an existential year for Xbox.

Microsoft can financially prop up the Xbox for the rest of time but they can’t force the industry to keep Xbox relevant.

I just can’t imagine that changing in the future. Another console isn’t going to change that.

Xbox is like that fat prostitute charging just $1 for people to fuck her (includes free blow and anal - aka Gamepass) but people still don't want to no matter how hard she tries.

 

[adamsapple]

Keeping aside assumptions, the only facts we know are:

• Phil confirmed in court, under oath, that Game Pass has not grown.
• The market data confirms that gaming subscription services have not grown.
• Phil said that if they don't get to 100 million subscribers by 2027, they will have to quit gaming.

There is nothing illogical by anyone if they repeat what the Head of Microsoft Gaming has already confirmed publicly.

It is not an assumption to point out growth in game pass in quarterly reports, growth in revenue doesn't happen without growth in subscriber counts. An increase in price in June '23 doesn't retroactively increase the revenue increase from multiple previous quarterly reports.

Also.

• Phil said that if they don't get to 100 million subscribers by 2027, they will have to quit gaming.

He did not say that. The exact quote is:

I do not believe that that is what the future Xbox business would look like. This is a presentation from our devices organization to the gaming leadership team, so this is the view from the team that is chartered with building our hardware on what the future business would look like.

I can fairly safely say that if we do not make more progress than this off of console, we would exit the gaming business. If this were the outcome, we would -- I don't believe we'd still be in the business.

There is no arbitrary figure attached to it.

 

[Heisenberg007]

It is not an assumption to point out growth in game pass in quarterly reports, growth in revenue doesn't happen without growth in subscriber counts. An increase in price in June '23 doesn't retroactively increase the revenue increase from multiple previous quarterly reports.

It absolutely does happen. What are you talking about?

If more people move from a less expensive tier to a more expensive tier, revenue grows while the total number of subscribers does not. Same thing happens when the price increases.

He did not say that. The exact quote is:

There is no arbitrary figure attached to it.

He literally said that. Let me show you the full quote.

"I can fairly safely say that if we do not make more progress than this off of console, we would exit the gaming business. If this were the outcome, we would -- I don't believe we'd still be in the business.

A majority of our customers are found off of our own hardware, I would hope by earlier than 2030. So, when you asked me if I agreed with this chart that the light green and blue depending on what colors you see there would have to be much larger much earlier. I would say by FY26, '27 that we should be in that position, or we'd have to make a different decision with the business."

And here is "the chart" he is referring to. The "this" refers to 100M subscribers.

The court specifically asked him about this chart and the 100M subscriber target. So yeah, he is literally talking about that specific number.

P.S. And by the way, to your earlier point, even in this chart, the Game Pass subscribers on consoles are projected to be above 50 million. So selling more consoles is definitely an integral part of this plan and represents a 50% part of the pie.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Consoles sales are down double digits YoY.

MS admitted 70% of Game Pass subs are on consoles.

Subscriptions are not growing. They are stagnant. Sub industry wide. So much so, one of the largest subs in Disney+ is forced to combine Hulu+ fully to make up for the lack of growth and stagnation in both services. They admitted this. Along with not doing day to date for their bangers well over a year ago.

Netflix aren't allowing sharing anymore and actively put things in place to prevent it. Along with raising prices

YouTube is dumping more and more ads and trying to block ad-blocks in a last ditch effort to funnel people into YouTube Premium.

Amazon Prime is adding ads to Prime subs and you now have to pay extra ($3/mo) to remove them, on a sub price that already raised almost 30% YoY the alone.

HBO scaled back their investment in original programming and are very selective now, even removed a wealth of past programming and upped reality TV filler tripe.

Consumers are tired of the nickel and diming, especially with long periods of quality content drought. Inflation comes, spending cuts happen, repeated monthly sub services are some of the first to go in households since they all add up.

No matter the mental gymnastics, the reality is plain to see in the "subscription service" industry. It's not blossoming and healthy, it's extracting blood from the remaining stones for board meeting growth %s.

 

[adamsapple]

If more people move from a less expensive tier to a more expensive tier, revenue grows while the total number of subscribers does not. Same thing happens when the price increases.

Could be true in some cases, but we already have had multiple third party reports citing higher than the 25m numbers from Jan '22. Why MS is being cagey to reveal the numbers? Who knows, could be a sympathy ploy. Who can say.

Sony reported that they believe game pass is at 29m
A marketing director put it at over 30m in his linked in before swiftly removing after news websites started publishing it

This is before the Core rebranding.

And here is "the chart" he is referring to. The "this" refers to 100M subscribers

The chart shows them hitting 100m by fiscal 29-30. He says they would need to make more progress towards it by 26-27. They also repeatedly said that acquiring Activision is the key to their growth. Kinda obvious why they would say that in the middle of the proceedings to acquire Activision in that case.

They also very recently said that they have no plans to bring key services to other consoles, dashing the potential announcement of them going third party.

MS admitted 70% of Game Pass subs are on consoles.

Where did they admit this?

The closest thing is in the EC report about 70~% subscribers being on the Ultimate tier, which is not console-only.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I still think there is a place for Xbox hardware,.but I've felt more and more that it shouldn't be at the 'critical mass' targeting spec. They've got both the most powerful and the cheapest hardware this gen and they are tracking below the console that tracked below the one before.

Top end enthusiast walled garden (Premium like a PC build spec) and then broad publishing seems like it would suit their current size and capability.

The biggest avenue for success when it comes to Xbox is making it the Steam machine people wanted

But make it an Xbox machine, that has Windows loaded, that can double as a PC, that has a GPU expansion slot for certified GPU variations/upgrades over time

That’s not enough, they will need to also go third party and release on PlayStation and Nintendo hardware

I think the writing is on the wall. Sales for Xbox are tanking in a year where released the biggest exclusive they paid $8B for. They aren’t getting a bigger exclusive than that all gen long. Nothing will move the needle, but going third party could make their games more relevant and successful

 

[DeepEnigma]

Could be true in some cases, but we already have had multiple third party reports citing higher than the 25m numbers from Jan '22. Why MS is being cagey to reveal the numbers? Who knows, could be a sympathy ploy. Who can say.

Sony reported that they believe game pass is at 29m
A marketing director put it at over 30m in his linked in before swiftly removing after news websites started publishing it

This is before the Core rebranding.



The chart shows them hitting 100m by fiscal 29-30. He says they would need to make more progress towards it by 26-27. They also repeatedly said that acquiring Activision is the key to their growth. Kinda obvious why they would say that in the middle of the proceedings to acquire Activision in that case.

They also very recently said that they have no plans to bring key services to other consoles, dashing the potential announcement of them going third party.




Where did they admit this?

The closest thing is in the EC report about 70~% subscribers being on the Ultimate tier, which is not console-only.

My dude, you made the thread on attachment rate. (I was speaking on attachment rate since that's how subs are measured)

Xbox Series S - 70% Game Pass Attach Ratio

Via linked-in stuff. 70% attach ratio to game pass for a console seems really good / really high. https://www.linkedin.com/in/theresavandenboogaard/

www.neogaf.com

So if sales on the attachment rate box are down YoY, it's not growing for shit.

PC and Windows store are not lighting the world of fire. Stop. The overwhelming majority still prefer peacemeal in Steam, GoG or the like for PC.

The entire sub industry is scrambling and starving, even players doing this far longer than MS, but MS found the "magic key," even after a $60+b purchase. Stop. Get some help.

Bookmark this post. You will see major shifts and new marching orders in 1.5 to 2 years time.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

There’s no way there won’t be major changes

Top executives won’t get paid out massive bonuses unless Xbox meets high targets. Those targets are impossible to meet unless they go 3P

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Consoles sales are down double digits YoY.

MS admitted 70% of Game Pass subs are on consoles.

Subscriptions are not growing. They are stagnant. Sub industry wide. So much so, one of the largest subs in Disney+ is forced to combine Hulu+ fully to make up for the lack of growth and stagnation in both services. They admitted this. Along with not doing day to date for their bangers well over a year ago.

Netflix aren't allowing sharing anymore and actively put things in place to prevent it. Along with raising prices

YouTube is dumping more and more ads and trying to block ad-blocks in a last ditch effort to funnel people into YouTube Premium.

Amazon Prime is adding ads to Prime subs and you now have to pay extra ($3/mo) to remove them, on a sub price that already raised almost 30% YoY the alone.

HBO scaled back their investment in original programming and are very selective now, even removed a wealth of past programming and upped reality TV filler tripe.

Consumers are tired of the nickel and diming, especially with long periods of quality content drought. Inflation comes, spending cuts happen, repeated monthly sub services are some of the first to go in households since they all add up.

No matter the mental gymnastics, the reality is plain to see in the "subscription service" industry. It's not blossoming and healthy, it's extracting blood from the remaining stones for board meeting growth %s.

They all rushed to these sub services without realizing the implications for the entire business model that media creation and production depends on. You need to invest a lot up front to create and produce mass media and streaming completely destroyed the revenue on the other side. Turns out when TV shows, movies, and games are free, nobody is making money. I'm genuinely shocked and disturbed that giving things away for free doesn't make any money! How could this be?!

 

[demigod]

My dude, you made the thread on attachment rate. (I was speaking on attachment rate since that's how subs are measured)

Xbox Series S - 70% Game Pass Attach Ratio

Via linked-in stuff. 70% attach ratio to game pass for a console seems really good / really high. https://www.linkedin.com/in/theresavandenboogaard/

www.neogaf.com

Fucking hilarious

 

[MrA]

They all rushed to these sub services without realizing the implications for the entire business model that media creation and production depends on. You need to invest a lot up front to create and produce mass media and streaming completely destroyed the revenue on the other side. Turns out when TV shows, movies, and games are free, nobody is making money. I'm genuinely shocked and disturbed that giving things away for free doesn't make any money! How could this be?!

How much are you selling them for ?
A dollar
And how much does it cost to make one?
5 dollars, ohhh, but I sold a lot of them

 

[DeepEnigma]

They all rushed to these sub services without realizing the implications for the entire business model that media creation and production depends on. You need to invest a lot up front to create and produce mass media and streaming completely destroyed the revenue on the other side. Turns out when TV shows, movies, and games are free, nobody is making money. I'm genuinely shocked and disturbed that giving things away for free doesn't make any money! How could this be?!

They're banking on that "loss-leading" upfront cost to keep people stuck in a psychological addiction. But humans come in all shapes and mental sizes, so when you selectively juggle the cancelling of shows one group were hooked to, while trying to pander to another, you dig that hole deeper, even if it's just with what you think is a spoon.

Borrow debt to uphold or maintain other debt strategy. Much like the lower class consumers they target. Ironic.

 

[adamsapple]

My dude, you made the thread on attachment rate. (I was speaking on attachment rate since that's how subs are measured)

Xbox Series S - 70% Game Pass Attach Ratio

Via linked-in stuff. 70% attach ratio to game pass for a console seems really good / really high. https://www.linkedin.com/in/theresavandenboogaard/

www.neogaf.com

That's just the attachment rate for Series S alone, I would hardly say it reads like 70% of total GP subs being on console.

Especially with them citing a 159% increase in PC subs yoy last year.

Bookmark this post. You will see major shifts and nee marching orders in 1.5 to2 years time.

There would need to be some pretty drastic changes in their output/outlook though, they may make 'some' changes if the new gen is being pulled early, to coincide with it.

But as it stands, they're projecting a roughly double increase in revenue by FY30.

Fucking hilarious

Very

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

But as it stands, they're projecting a roughly double increase in revenue by FY30.

That doubling figure of hardware is impossible at current trajectories

 

[DeepEnigma]

That doubling figure of hardware is impossible at current trajectories

He just doesn't want to see it. Intentionally or "true believer." And I don't even care if Sony. Valve or Nintendo tried to sell this to me, I'm not buying it when the sub industry of over 15 years are showing the ugly fruition.

If you're reliant on the hardware that the most retention is on, and the hardware is consistently down YoY, then red flags are going up, and early too. And this is before a $69b sink.

The SAME red flags ALL sub service are dealing with at the same time who've been doing this longer,and MS is not impervious to, no matter their loss leading deep pockets. Something will eventually give. Bet.

 

[adamsapple]

That doubling figure of hardware is impossible at current trajectories

Being a bit pedantic here, but it's not doubling by that chart, also a new console generation by 26~27 will give it a nice bump.

He just doesn't want to see it. Intentionally or "true believer." And I don't even care if Sony. Valve or Nintendo tried to sell this to me, I'm not buying it when the sub industry of over 15 years are showing the ugly fruition.

If you're reliant on the hardware that the most rentention is on, and the hardware is consistently down YoY, then red flags are going up, and early too. And this is before a $69b sink.

The SAME red flags ALL sub service are dealing with at the same time who've been doing this longer,and MS is not impervious to, no matter their loss leading deep pockets. Something will eventually give. Bet.

I'm just relaying what they themselves are projecting

Keep in mind that they haven't even started adding the Activision stuff to anything yet, whether it's their general revenue or shit added to subscription, so it's bound to get a nice fat boost in the coming months/quarters.

 

[Heisenberg007]

There’s no way there won’t be major changes

Top executives won’t get paid out massive bonuses unless Xbox meets high targets. Those targets are impossible to meet unless they go 3P

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/microsoft-drops-game-pass-growth-target-for-ceo-compensation

 

[DeepEnigma]

Being a bit pedantic here, but it's not doubling by that chart, also a new console generation by 26~27 will give it a nice bump.


I'm just relaying what they themselves are projecting

Keep in mind that they haven't even started adding the Activision stuff to anything yet, whether it's their general revenue or shit added to subscription, so it's bound to get a nice fat boost in the coming months/quarters.

Okay. And I'm telling you, sub services PRing you the "promised land" are a fool's errand as they juggle their "payday loan like" initial sunk cost debt to sustain early on. We are seeing this with industry vets of every single service after all that dust has settled. Games have far less monetary avenues locked to walled gardens than film and TV. The reckoning and narrative shifts will come.

Don't be surprised or hurt, (much like PS diehards with PC games), when MS starts delivering their owned IPs to "rival platforms" under the predictive programming slogan of, "when everyone plays, well all win"

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Being a bit pedantic here, but it's not doubling by that chart, also a new console generation by 26~27 will give it a nice bump.

Revenues actually aren’t highest during the start of a new gen

They peak mid gen. Going from 3.7B to 7.0B when your brand is collapsing at what should be peak years is simply not going to happen.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Revenues actually aren’t highest during the start of a new gen

They peak mid gen. Going from 3.7B to 7.0B when your brand is collapsing at what should be peak years is simply not going to happen.

This gen is an interesting one.

I don't think anyone can deny that the PS5 was designed more wisely than the Xbox. While there is a performance delta on paper between the PS5 and XsX, it isn't noticeable to most people, and even Digital Foundry have been shocked at how performant the PS5 is in comparisons.

The interesting part is that while Xbox would probably still be subsidising the Series X by an amount at their normal MSRP, they've had to go insanely heavy at their reduced prices.

Cerny on the other hand built a box that could have its BOM rapidly decline in price. Inflation has hugely eaten into that, hence the price increase, but at least Sony are able to cover their losses like that and still sell a shit ton of consoles.

Xbox, possibly due to an effort to compete, have actually cultivated a userbase that is very price sensitive. Their perception is of a value brand now, even though their BOM is premium. Gamepass does not help this perception. Gamepass in and of itself isn't bad, but when you traditionally make your money by selling software to offset hardware losses, I'm not sure that equation balances for Xbox any more because that is a console userbase that is significantly less likely to buy software compared to the other console competition.

That makes gamepass less valuable per user as it takes longer for that gamepass user to make a positive financial contribution to the ecosystem (subsidising sales of series X by $200 means it takes longer for Xbox to make money per user for example).

I'm really quite interested in what Xbox do with gamepass. If by this time next year they've launched COD on the service then they'll take a huge revenue hit. That revenue hit likely won't cover the loss on the hardware and the the loss on day one digital/physical sales. Would that be palatable to Nadella having spent $70B (and let's be real, mainly for COD in all its forms including mobile). COD is their golden goose now - it has to be protected.

I suspect they'll keep gamepass going to try and fend off Apple when they get their ducks in a row. Apple's gaming sub with an ecosystem where games can be played on any of their devices is on paper the biggest threat to Microsoft's entire ecosystem.

Meanwhile Sony grow the PS5 userbase and are actively preparing to grow on PC...

 

[DenchDeckard]

Consoles sales are down double digits YoY.

MS admitted 70% of Game Pass subs are on consoles.

Subscriptions are not growing. They are stagnant. Sub industry wide. So much so, one of the largest subs in Disney+ is forced to combine Hulu+ fully to make up for the lack of growth and stagnation in both services. They admitted this. Along with not doing day to date for their bangers well over a year ago.

Netflix aren't allowing sharing anymore and actively put things in place to prevent it. Along with raising prices

YouTube is dumping more and more ads and trying to block ad-blocks in a last ditch effort to funnel people into YouTube Premium.

Amazon Prime is adding ads to Prime subs and you now have to pay extra ($3/mo) to remove them, on a sub price that already raised almost 30% YoY the alone.

HBO scaled back their investment in original programming and are very selective now, even removed a wealth of past programming and upped reality TV filler tripe.

Consumers are tired of the nickel and diming, especially with long periods of quality content drought. Inflation comes, spending cuts happen, repeated monthly sub services are some of the first to go in households since they all add up.

No matter the mental gymnastics, the reality is plain to see in the "subscription service" industry. It's not blossoming and healthy, it's extracting blood from the remaining stones for board meeting growth %s.

Youre right. I think people have reached their limit of what they are willing to pay for. We could enter a recession in the UK. Bills are through the roof and we are being selective with what we purchase.

I don't know what's happening on the games front. Their seems to be more job losses, studios closing down etc than ever before. There are tons of great games but a handful actually sell.

I don't think there's ever been a year where Sony releases one game? It was a huge title for them but still kind of shocking to see. I wondernwhere the industry is going.

 

[mckmas8808]

The whispers are that they've actually internally pivoted to a multiplatform development manta for a lot of games. Games that were greenlit as Xbox only are now getting ports factored into their development and older games are being ported too. Lots of talk of this around and generally there is no smoke without fire. That to me is a huge concession in the console space.

I think becoming the largest third party publisher by far is the route to success for them. Trying to compete with Sony and Nintendo is a matter of pride for them but they've now failed four times.

I hope you are right, because MS needs to be a player in the game.

 

[mckmas8808]

Consoles sales are down double digits YoY.

MS admitted 70% of Game Pass subs are on consoles.

Subscriptions are not growing. They are stagnant. Sub industry wide. So much so, one of the largest subs in Disney+ is forced to combine Hulu+ fully to make up for the lack of growth and stagnation in both services. They admitted this. Along with not doing day to date for their bangers well over a year ago.

Netflix aren't allowing sharing anymore and actively put things in place to prevent it. Along with raising prices

YouTube is dumping more and more ads and trying to block ad-blocks in a last ditch effort to funnel people into YouTube Premium.

Amazon Prime is adding ads to Prime subs and you now have to pay extra ($3/mo) to remove them, on a sub price that already raised almost 30% YoY the alone.

HBO scaled back their investment in original programming and are very selective now, even removed a wealth of past programming and upped reality TV filler tripe.

Consumers are tired of the nickel and diming, especially with long periods of quality content drought. Inflation comes, spending cuts happen, repeated monthly sub services are some of the first to go in households since they all add up.

No matter the mental gymnastics, the reality is plain to see in the "subscription service" industry. It's not blossoming and healthy, it's extracting blood from the remaining stones for board meeting growth %s.

Perfectly said! In this post is saying the things that many in the video game media don't seem to understand. But it's happening right in front of our eyes. Like you said with the other players and TV and movies who have done it longer then microsoft.

And now we see the executives at Microsoft are not tying their bonuses to the growth of game pass. That tells us all we need. It's not growing like they assumed it would.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

It’s “shakeout” time as losses of Netflix rivals top $5 billion

Disney, Warner, Comcast, and Paramount are contemplating cuts, possible mergers.

arstechnica.com

It's been fun watching Hollywood devaluing their own products and destroying their revenue bases in such a spectacular and foolish manner chasing the market valuation of Netflix. And to think that there are people here who cheer for the same thing to happen to gaming.

They're banking on that "loss-leading" upfront cost to keep people stuck in a psychological addiction. But humans come in all shapes and mental sizes, so when you selectively juggle the cancelling of shows one group were hooked to, while trying to pander to another, you dig that hole deeper, even if it's just with what you think is a spoon.

Borrow debt to uphold or maintain other debt strategy. Much like the lower class consumers they target. Ironic.

Hollywood has a reputation for being bad at accounting and considering most of them are creative professionals maybe nobody ever taught them how to manage money. For some reason they thought they could chase Netflix without doing what Netflix did, which was accumulate a mountain of debt in the early years of their transition from being just a collection of other people's content to creation of original programming. Netflix got away with it because they were the first movers in an era where interest rates were zero and the market was having a decade-long bull run. They piled up 400+ million subscribers and were able to turn their initially hugely unprofitable, debt laden original programming divisions into the money printers they are today. Hollywood thought they could just skip from step 1 to step Profit without going through what Netflix did in those early days. Classic Hollywood hubris, now they can burn to well-deserved ashes.

 

[Woopah]

They needed to turn things around last year. It’s too late now.

There's no way Xbox Series will have a better year next year than this one. Not with Sony releasing a PS5 Pro and Nintendo releasing Switch 2.
Playstation literally starts the year with a quarter that has Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Rise of the Ronin and TLOU2 Remastered...that's just in 3 months.

Sony will probably have the first price reduction next year once the Pro is released as well...once that happens (in September supposedly) good luck to MS to share the console market with a strong Playstation and a new Nintendo console. People won't even remember they exist.

I disagree. I think 2023 was the most pivotal year. It just didn't turn out to be one for Xbox.

2024 will not have any hope of resurgence whatsoever. 2023 had that.

2023 was the turn around year, it failed miserably. They had Diablo 4 marketing and Starfield. There is nothing that will save it in 2024.

Sales in 2021 and 2022 were okay, and 2023 had some promising content on paper, so I'd say they entered this year in a stronger position than they are entering next year.

2023 was a year where they could build off past growth, 2024 is a year where they have to turn around significant declines.

We all agree that Xbox doesn't really have the exclusive content to do that in the next 12 months, which is why Welfare is saying MS has to be aggressive with pricing and bundling.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Sales in 2021 and 2022 were okay, and 2023 had some promising content on paper, so I'd say they entered this year in a stronger position than they are entering next year.

2023 was a year where they could build off past growth, 2024 is a year where they have to turn around significant declines.

We all agree that Xbox doesn't really have the exclusive content to do that in the next 12 months, which is why Welfare is saying MS has to be aggressive with pricing and bundling.

Starfield and redfall were delayed. They were supposed to release in 2022.

2022 was a very poor year and both 2021 and 2022 sales were propped up by supply issues for the ps5.

They needed to turn things around in 2022 before supply corrected.