seady said:
To publisher:
If you don't want your games to be portrayed as a failure, don't release it at the end of the month. The first month sale number will dictate the future perception of a product.
Sincerely Yours,
XX:lolx
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Seriously, I think it is true. GT5 (and many other games that released at the end of month) will forever be remembered as a 'bomba' because of this.
The otherside of that, is that you get the entire next month to show some legs just as Fable 3 did. And Fable 3 did it going into November where you get the highest profile releases of the year, (multiplatform COD, Need For Speed, Assassins Creed, and big single platform launches like GT5, Donkey Kong, and Just Dance 2). GT5 will get an entire month of sales with zero big releases to show its legs. I think it will do well. Certainly top 10 again.
As for my monthly analysis. Very impressive for MS. Nintendo also great sales, but I think last December was really the first month that the Wii was not supply constrained, and despite their increase over last November, I do think that they would have done better last November if the Wii was readily available. Those December numbers were just off the chart insane, and while I doubt they can repeat that success, even with all of the MS excitement I doubt they can beat the Wii in December. Even if they could, I think they may be supply constrained for the first time in a long time. I cannot find a single available 360 hardware SKU on Amazon at this moment. Of course that is Amazon, but assuming the 360 is short in supply right now, I doubt they can just throw a couple of million units out there into retail which is what they would need to defeat the Wii.
For Sony, not so good. On the Hardware side we are looking at pre 2009 levels of interest. I do not think the GT5 doom and gloom is as bad as people are making it out to be. It was a surprise launch of a giant franchise, and was marketed poorly. Butler works well for "It only does everything" but when you look at individual games like GT5 they need to me marketed in the way that a Halo or Gears have been marketed in the past. You need to focus the marketing of those games in a very specific and individual way, and not make them an offshoot of a repetitive ad campaign.
Also props to Ubisoft. They started out strong this generation on the 360, and then virtually disappeared. This Holiday they have two of the biggest games out there while EA and Take Two are mostly absent from the discussion. And fuck wow at those COD numbers. I am burned out on the franchise and hate Activision but that 8 plus million number is just freaken crazy. Fable 3 is the biggest surprise for me, because it beat off that November onslaught in its second month to chart quite well again.