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Official 2011 MLB Thread v.2: The Mets are terrible.

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C

CajoleJuice

Member
Tom Tango annihilates ESPN;

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/stealing_signs_in_toronto/
I’ve never looked, but let me take a really quick look here. And sign stealing would go beyond just batted balls. Walks, strikeouts, the whole thing comes into play. So, let’s see what we have:

In 2011, so far, Toronto batters’ OPS is 69 points higher at home. Their opponents are 47 points higher at Rogers. Since the typical home field advantage is about 30 or 40 points, seeing a 23 point advantage for Toronto batters over their opponents actually works against the theory, but in reality, it’s well within random chance.

How about 2010? Toronto batters had a 64 points advantage at home, while their opposing batters are 3 points under, giving a whopping 67 point differential (compared to the standard 30-40). Is that a big deal though? That’s about a 15 point wOBA advantage on 3000 PA. One standard deviation would be 9 points, so we’re talking under two SD. By itself, maybe there’s something to it. Maybe. But couple it with 2011, and there’s nothing there.

2009? The Toronto hitters were 8 points UNDER, while opposing hitters were 63 points UNDER. Quite a reversal of fortune for all concerned. Anyway, that’s a 57 point advantage for Toronto hitters. Putting the three years together, the 57, 67 and 23 points of advantage averages out to 52 OPS points, compared to the league average of 30 to 40 points. That’s about 7 wOBA points. Given 8000 PA, one SD is 5.7 wOBA points.

I don’t see it. And if you were to do all 30 teams, I’m sure you’ll find a couple of other teams with a bigger advantage at home than the Jays hitters.

If anything, the outlier is 2008, before all this apparently started. The Toronto hitters had a 28 point advantage at Rogers. But opposing hitters were 50 points UNDER, for a 78 point difference, far ahead of all subsequent seasons. In 2007, it was 37 point advantage for Toronto hitters, while opposing hitters were 47 points under, for an even greater 84 point differential. In 2006, Toronto hitters had a 100 point advantage, while opposing hitters were 48 points UNDER, for a super duper differential of 148 points! You want to talk about something weird, then go back to 2006. In 2005, it was 70 point advantage for Toronto hitters, while opposing hitters were 4 point UNDER, for a 74 point differential.

So, 2005-2008 is where Rogers was the huge advnantage for the hitters, averaging 96 points of OPS advantage (compared to presumably a 30-40 league average, though at this point, I’m too lazy to look that up). Anyway, that’s about a 25 wOBA difference on 12,000 PA. With one SD being 4.7 wOBA points, that’s 5 SD from the mean. That’s about as big an outlier as you’ll ever find.

If you want to investigate, go back to 2005-2008, and find out what happened at Rogers. 2009-2011? Nothing in comparison.
Click to expand...
 
B

Brinbe

Member
KuGsj.gif
@ http://twitter.com/#!/TheManinWhite1
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
CajoleJuice said:
Tom Tango annihilates ESPN;

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/stealing_signs_in_toronto/
Click to expand...

How? He's saying that the data from 2005-2008 is even more damning than 2008-2011.

Maybe the Man-in-White has really been around since the 90's and nobody caught him till the heroic Yankees did.
So, 2005-2008 is where Rogers was the huge advnantage for the hitters, averaging 96 points of OPS advantage (compared to presumably a 30-40 league average, though at this point, I’m too lazy to look that up). Anyway, that’s about a 25 wOBA difference on 12,000 PA. With one SD being 4.7 wOBA points, that’s 5 SD from the mean. That’s about as big an outlier as you’ll ever find.
Click to expand...
 
S

sf2fanatic

Member
AbortedWalrusFetus said:
Rollins had a 15 pitch at bat before popping out in the first at bat. Is this bizzaro world? Usually it takes 1 pitch in his first at bat. Way to work that pitch count though. 30 pitch first inning for Billingsley.
Click to expand...


Thats a normal start for Bills. Have about 50 pitches for first 2 then have like 35-40 total the rest of the game
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
DoctorWho said:
I was busy and missed the press conference. I assume he denied everything.
Click to expand...

It wasn't online anywhere. Are we back in 1999 or something?

Evidently he was really pissed off. Really pissed off.
 
D

Doytch

Member
DW: Getting Blanked has bullets and Parkes says they'll have video later.

Also, the cameramen during the presser were wearing white.
 
T

The Frankman

Banned
We praise former Braves long reliever Scott Proctor,
Misunderstood and much-maligned,
Slaving away in the Atlanta bullpen,
Working where the spotlight shined...

Respect former Braves' long reliever Scott Proctor,
It's a calling few would crave...
Lift a gas can and join us,
Let's all light ourselves ablaze...

When it comes to facing batters,
there are many techniques,
Oh, some rely on having guile
and others just throw heat...
Some may think the long reliever
is their best friend...
But if you use Scott Proctor then you'll knowwwwwwwww...
he'll blow it in the end!

Why use Scott Proctor in tight situations?
It was one of those mysterious things...
Is it because in Fredi's mind,
He was there to get work in...

When a Braves fan first met Scott Proctor,
Scott did not quite understand,
The fan said, "Hi, it's nice to meet you
but do you mind? NEVER PITCH AGAIN",

He enjoyed his time in Yankeeland
Because he kept busy,
Even after injury woes,
He never blamed Joe Torre...
A pitcher he wanted to be,
and baseball he loved to play,
But it filled Braves fans' hearts with mortal fear...
when he pitched in a game!

So praise former Braves long reliever Scott Proctor,
Misunderstood and much-maligned,
Slaving away in the Atlanta bullpen,
Working where the spotlight shined...
 
The Elite

The Elite

BOSS
Doytch said:
DW: Getting Blanked has bullets and Parkes says they'll have video later.

Also, the cameramen during the presser were wearing white.
Click to expand...

From the blog:

Here are the notes from Toronto Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos’ press conference:

•Baseball is a small fraternity.
•Not too hard to find former player/manager/field guy who would confirm this.
•Compares it to UFO guy who sees something.
•Guaranteed there is at least one former, disgruntled player who would say something.
•No general manager has ever suggested anything to Alex Anthopoulos.
•Common sense question: Is this realistic.
•Unfair to the players and organization.
•Every game is broadcast. Go through the broadcasts and look for a man in a white shirt.
•Spend a little time. Do a little work.
•A one time thing. Not going to talk about it after today.
•Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.
•Likes ESPN, visits website a lot. They’re as good as it gets. This is one example of them being wrong.
•They didn’t do their homework.
•Still blown away that we’re actually holding a press conference for this.
•Because four players on another team said something, a story is written and we’re all sitting here.
•This is nothing. No phone calls, no nothing. Haven’t heard from anyone in MLB today.
•I’ve been in this organization for years, never a phone call, e-mail, text, nothing. We have GM meetings. This would have come up.
Click to expand...

http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/
 
V

verbum

Member
The Frankman said:
We praise former Braves long reliever Scott Proctor,
Misunderstood and much-maligned,
Slaving away in the Atlanta bullpen,
Working where the spotlight shined...

Respect former Braves' long reliever Scott Proctor,
It's a calling few would crave...
Lift a gas can and join us,
Let's all light ourselves ablaze...

When it comes to facing batters,
there are many techniques,
Oh, some rely on having guile
and others just throw heat...
Some may think the long reliever
is their best friend...
But if you use Scott Proctor then you'll knowwwwwwwww...
he'll blow it in the end!

Why use Scott Proctor in tight situations?
It was one of those mysterious things...
Is it because in Fredi's mind,
He was there to get work in...

When a Braves fan first met Scott Proctor,
Scott did not quite understand,
The fan said, "Hi, it's nice to meet you
but do you mind? NEVER PITCH AGAIN",

He enjoyed his time in Yankeeland
Because he kept busy,
Even after injury woes,
He never blamed Joe Torre...
A pitcher he wanted to be,
and baseball he loved to play,
But it filled Braves fans' hearts with mortal fear...
when he pitched in a game!

So praise former Braves long reliever Scott Proctor,
Misunderstood and much-maligned,
Slaving away in the Atlanta bullpen,
Working where the spotlight shined...
Click to expand...


So Scott was cast away
And no more to pitch,
Baseball's fickle world may
Show life can be a bitch
Proctor may be saved yet
Fortune has turns which
Transform Scott to a New York Met.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
hemtae said:
Considering what they gave up, it wasn't really a steal
Click to expand...


There is no way to know that yet. All of those guys could bust will Pence could continue to play great and help win a WS, or those guys could be great and Pence could falter, or anything in between. That trade definitely could turn out to be a steal, but it is to early to tell.

Edit: Pence is so good people cant even field the balls that he hits. LOL!
 
V

verbum

Member
yankeehater said:
There is no way to know that yet. All of those guys could bust will Pence could continue to play great and help win a WS, or those guys could be great and Pence could falter, or anything in between. That trade definitely could turn out to be a steal, but it is to early to tell.
Click to expand...

It was a good deal for the Astros, they had nothing left in their system since they had already called up their top two prospects. With the Pence and Bourne deal, they got 8 halfway decent prospects to replenish their system.
 
J

JABEE

Member
verbum said:
It was a good deal for the Astros, they had nothing left in their system since they had already called up their top two prospects. With the Pence and Bourne deal, they got 8 halfway decent prospects to replenish their system.
Click to expand...
What? They already had Happ.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
yankeehater said:
There is no way to know that yet. All of those guys could bust will Pence could continue to play great and help win a WS, or those guys could be great and Pence could falter, or anything in between. That trade definitely could turn out to be a steal, but it is to early to tell.
Click to expand...

Phillies Get:
Brad Lidge
Eric Bruntlett

Astros Get:
Geoff Geary
Michael Bourn
Mike Constanzo

Obviously in retrospect the Astros absolutely crushed the Phillies in this trade.

But the Phillies got 1 good season out of Lidge and went onto win the WS that year. Maybe they don't win that title without Lidge at the back of that pen. He's been the same woeful and awful Brad Lidge everybody has come to love since but flags really do fly forever. And maybe the Phillies end up winning more than 1 WS since 08 if they had Bourn instead of Lidge, but the fact is they did win one with Lidge playing a big role in it.

Astros got all those great years out of Bourn but nothing came to fruition at a team level from it.

Obviously now the Braves get Bourn for a year and a half. Even if the Braves somehow managed to beat the Phillies in playoffs and Bourn played a big role in it, that WS flag from 2008 is still flying forever.

So basically what the Astros get is completely irrelevant. They will suck from now until 2017 or whenever the hell they are competitive again. The Phillies picked up a solid player who definitely improves their WS chances for the next 2 and a half seasons.

I give Ruben Amaro a lot of props for being one of the guys who gets at the end of the day the only thing that matters in the end is if you make the playoffs and maybe get lucky enough to win the WS once you're there.
 
S

Sanjuro

Member
I can't believe Bautista has been caught using steroids.

...I mean...

I can't believe Bautista has been caught stealing signs.

Those are the only two ways of interpreting this. I'm surprised ESPN knows that there is a team in Toronto.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
darkside31337 said:
Phillies Get:
Brad Lidge
Eric Bruntlett

Astros Get:
Geoff Geary
Michael Bourn
Mike Constanzo

Obviously in retrospect the Astros absolutely crushed the Phillies in this trade.
Click to expand...

How did the Astros crush the Phils in this trade? Lidge was a huge part of them winning the WS, he was perfect on saves that year. Bruntlett was a bust, but Geary and Costanzo havent done anything for the Astro's either. Bourne was good for them but they traded him for some prospects that everyone has said were average at best. The Phils got a WS out of that trade and the Asdtros got some prospects that might help them one day, no way either team got crushed.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Here's some more detective work.

Two guys in white t-shirts at a Jays game. Also involves binoculars and the two of the men there raising their arms above their heads. And also a topless woman. This happened a few years back and fits the 2008-2010 time frame.

http://www.faniq.com/blog/Topless-Woman-Enjoys-Blue-Jays-Game-At-Rogers-Centre-Blog-10281

All the proof I need that some scandalous behavior is taking place at the Rogers Centre. The Men-in-White aren't in the CF seats, they're in the boxes above obviously.

yankeehater said:
How did the Astros crush the Phils in this trade? Lidge was a huge part of them winning the WS, he was perfect on saves that year. Bruntlett was a bust, but Geary and Costanzo havent done anything for the Astro's either. Bourne was good for them but they traded him for some prospects that everyone has said were average at best. The Phils got a WS out of that trade and the Asdtros got some prospects that might help them one day, no way either team got crushed.
Click to expand...

Did you not read anything I wrote after that ._.

I said that the Astros crushed the Phillies in terms of sheer value for the money. Brad Lidge has had one good year and a bunch of awful ones. Bourn gave the Astros 2 very solid years for dirt cheap.

But the Phillies winning a WS because of Lidge and the Astros achieving nothing with Bourn tips that the other way. Flags fly forever as the saying goes.
 
J

JABEE

Member
AnEternalEnigma said:
It's really amazing how teams turn into such pussies when they face the Phillies.
Click to expand...
Leaving the righty in against Howard and Utley with RISP didn't seem like an intelligent move.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
JABEE said:
Leaving the righty in against Howard and Utley with RISP didn't seem like an intelligent move.
Click to expand...


Clearly Mattingly reads GAF and knows that Utley is finished and Howard is the worst player in the league at his position.
 
E

eznark

Banned
AnEternalEnigma said:
It's really amazing how teams turn into such pussies when they face the Phillies.
Click to expand...

Brewers are 2-1 against the Phillies this season. Everyone rally to Milwaukee!


lol no one has ever said this here
Click to expand...
Has anyone on GAF ever said a bad word about Utley?
 
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