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Official Nintendogs prediction thread.

S

sonycowboy

Member
OK. This is a wildcard, but looking at daily sales on the major websites and speaking to retailers, and alot of folks on GAF saying it sold out, it looks like Nintendogs is off to a healthy start and taking the DS hardware with it. I'm doing this early, before Nintendo issues any press release saying how well it launched, just in case.

August's retail month ends this Saturday (August 27th), so we'll only get 5 days of Nintendogs sales.

So, here's the challenge:

Predict:

a) Total Nintendogs sales
b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)
c) DS sales for the month

What would be a MONSTER sales month to you? What would be a disappointing bow?
 
I really don't follow sales threads, so I don't know what a good number would be for 5 days, but I hope it sold well. It really is quite an addictive little game and almost everyone I've showed it to has had a favorable opinion of it.
 
sonycowboy said:
a) Total Nintendogs sales
b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)
c) DS sales for the month
Click to expand...

a) 300k
b) 100, 80, 120
c) 160k

Just a guess, I think it'll do pretty well. It'll have a lot of legs through the end of the year
 
sonycowboy said:
Predict:

a) Total Nintendogs sales
b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)
c) DS sales for the month
Click to expand...
a) 80K (I believe the reports about the short supply)
b) Lab=35%, Chi=20%, Dach=45%
c) I'd give a prediction if you gave us what it sold in July. :) (I do think it'll break 100K but I don't know by how much yet)
 
a) 150K
b) Lab: 60K Chihuahua: 40K Dachshund: 50K
c) 120K
There could be a short supply of them however. EB's that I checked were getting regular shipments of the game, but only a few units per shipment.
 
a) 240k
b) 100k, 60k, 80k
c) 200k

High estimate for DS hardware because most Nintendogs buyers will be new owners.
 
I'm not gonna predict sales, but give a qualitative answer instead.

I am willing to bet Nintendogs will see moderate to good success. Hell, it might even be a freaking jackpot. Basically, I don't think it will tank. I can see kids and women eating that sort of shit up like there is no tomorrow as well - which is a factor in my qualitative response.
 
Anything over 100k for only 5 days is an undeniably success. 150k-200k is when I'll start going OMGWTF. As for my predictions:

A) 110k-120k
B) Daschund-45% Lab-35% Chi-20%
C) I'll be conservative and estimate 150k. Advance Wars is a pretty healthy seller and should assist in moving new units, though it may be too late in the month for it to have as much of an impact as it could.

What i'm REALLY interested in is how it fares in September. That'll be nintendogs true test, especially if the reports of short shipments are true.
 
a) 100K I'm being conservative, I wish it sells TONS
b) 45% lab, 30% Dasch, 25% (and maybe even less) chihuahua
c) again... conservative, 90K...

I believe this game will sell consoles/titles by word of mouth...
 
a) Total Nintendogs sales

75k

b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)

Lab: 25k, Chi: 10k, Dach: 40k

c) DS sales for the month

80k

What would be a MONSTER sales month to you? What would be a disappointing bow?

About twice of everything I predicted would be monster, disappointing would be 20k less for the first and last.

Your fascination with Nintendogs intrigues me, sonycowboy.
 
a) 160k
b) Lab:55k Chi:40k Dach:65k
c) 125k for DS

For a new franchise and only 5 days worth of sales I'd say monster sales would be over 200k. In fact I'd be amazed if that happened, I think I'm even high-balling it with 160k to be honest. Although one thing has been made very clear from Japan, never underestimate the dogs.
 
I'm not predicting any numbers, but I will say I expect it to do extremely well. I think this with the 129.99 price drop will do really good things for NDS, kick starting it somewhat into the Christmas season.

In my ideal world virtual pets would be destroyed, though. But I'm an replicant.
 
AniHawk said:
a) Total Nintendogs sales

75k

b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)

Lab: 25k, Chi: 10k, Dach: 40k

c) DS sales for the month

80k

What would be a MONSTER sales month to you? What would be a disappointing bow?

About twice of everything I predicted would be monster, disappointing would be 20k less for the first and last.

Your fascination with Nintendogs intrigues me, sonycowboy.
Click to expand...
ha, are you kidding me?

if every retail store carrying videogames sold 1-2 copies of Chuhuahua it would alreaedy surpass your prediction for it... I'm sure it's sold way for than that...

for Dashund it would have to be around 4-6 sales per store to reach your prediction, and by all accounts it's flying off the shelves...

you always underpredict big Nintendo stuff, so we'll see how this turns out... if you are serious about your low predictions, then you'll definitely see super-MONSTER sales from your perspective...
 
hmm, yeah that is true... and most stores advertised as getting it Wed. or Thursday...

still, I say 150,000 is conservative... especially with that trade-in deal EB had going on...
 
Alcibiades said:
hmm, yeah that is true... and most stores advertised as getting it Wed. or Thursday...

still, I say 150,000 is conservative... especially with that trade-in deal EB had going on...
Click to expand...

The store I preordered from had 30-40 (and I did the EB trade in deal). But really, the trade-in deal was known by a few nerds on the internet, and even fewer wanted the game, and even fewer than that were able to get it preordered.

The store I work at had about 10 copies preordered or so. The demo was extremely popular though.
 
The store I worked at had 25ish copy's preordered.. all picked up.. not enough for normal sales till next shipment which came in today and the day before.. and those have been selling steadily too..

The largest gamestop store in the US like 10 miles away had 150 copies preordered and was short over 30 copies on launch day haha
 
sonycowboy said:
Predict:

a) Total Nintendogs sales
b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)
c) DS sales for the month

What would be a MONSTER sales month to you? What would be a disappointing bow?
Click to expand...

a) 80,000 to 100,000 units.
b) Lab. gets at least 50%. Dachshund gets 30 to 40%, rat picks up the remainder.
c) 80,000 hardware units, I guess.
 
Is the Nintendogs Holiday Edition going to be online? Or is this just some excuse to add Christmas items and themes to the backgrounds.
 
1. 155,000 combined dogs sold
2. 75,000 Dachshund 55,000 Lab 25,000 Wawa
3. 175,000 DS systems


Dachshund is the number one ds faq page and message board at gamefaqs, for what it's worth. Ignoring that, considering its superior starting lineup of dogs (husky, golden retreiver, beagle, dachshund) it is a no-brainer that this one will sell the best, imo.
 
acidviper said:
Is the Nintendogs Holiday Edition going to be online? Or is this just some excuse to add Christmas items and themes to the backgrounds.
Click to expand...

No one knows anything about it, but it probably won't be online until Nintendogs 2. :P
 
I made a prediction earlier, lets see if I remember:

125,000 total
(dah) 50,000, (lab) 45,000, (chi) 30,000

As for hardware sales, thats hard to say based on the GBA+DS released numbers.

What was the last GBA-DS number released?

Ill add 30,000 to that.
 
Wow.

More moderate expectations than I thought.

I'd expect a minimum of 200k and a bump of the DS hardware to say 140-150k or so.
 
I notice a LOT of people are being way conservative with the DS estimates.

Seriously, in june the DS sold about 117k. What were the big releases that month? Kirby. That's it. Meteos might've helped, but that was near the end. Granted, it was a five-week month, but Nintendogs seems to be moving systems a lot faster than Kirby ever did. Of course, there's also the fact that nintendogs released so late, but we'll see.

I still think 150k hardware is on the conservative side, so I'm sticking to that. Also, sonycowboy, I believe that most people here are A) Not confident in nintendogs abilities or B) Want to avoid making grandiose predictions and instead err on the side of caution. i'm in camp B.
 
jman2050 said:
I notice a LOT of people are being way conservative with the DS estimates.

Seriously, in june the DS sold about 117k. What were the big releases that month? Kirby. That's it. Meteos might've helped, but that was near the end. Granted, it was a five-week month, but Nintendogs seems to be moving systems a lot faster than Kirby ever did. Of course, there's also the fact that nintendogs released so late, but we'll see.
Click to expand...

112k ;)

June = 5 week month, Blue DS, Bundle w/Mario 64DS, Kirby, MegaMan, GoldenEye, Meteos, & Splinter Cell. In July, the DS numbers fell back down well below 100k again (like April & May).

jman2050 said:
I still think 150k hardware is on the conservative side, so I'm sticking to that. Also, sonycowboy, I believe that most people here are A) Not confident in nintendogs abilities or B) Want to avoid making grandiose predictions and instead err on the side of caution. i'm in camp B.
Click to expand...

Why not make grandiose predictions if that's what you believe in? IMO, it's worthless to predict low and say, "that's about what I thought, but I was being conservative." That's not a prediction, dammit! Are people actually afraid of predicting a high number because if it's not achieved some people might call it a flop?

We know it's not going to be a flop. In fact, you've got built in protection as if it's below a particular prediction, people can just claim "Shortages!"
 
I'm not going to be guessing numbers but I was in gamestop the other day playing the demo and two people walked in and bought a DS and a copy of Nintendogs. I couldn't have been in there for more than 10 min. This could definately be the next big thing.
 
tt_deeb said:
I'm not going to be guessing numbers but I was in gamestop the other day playing the demo and two people walked in and bought a DS and a copy of Nintendogs. I couldn't have been in there for more than 10 min. This could definately be the next big thing.
Click to expand...

a new craze is loooooong over due, so i expect we have it, especially with the first game looking to do soooo well.
Next installment with some wi-fi swapping of dogs etc would prob go mad
 
ThongyDonk said:
a new craze is loooooong over due, so i expect we have it, especially with the first game looking to do soooo well.
Next installment with some wi-fi swapping of dogs etc would prob go mad
Click to expand...

I wasn't going to buy nintendogs. But if we had an online dog swapping/visiting feature... dear... I probably won't be able to resist anymore ;_;
 
sonycowboy said:
So, here's the challenge:

Predict:

a) Total Nintendogs sales
b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)
c) DS sales for the month
Click to expand...

a) 150K
b) Lab - 70K, Chi - 35K, Dach - 45K
c) 110K. 20K per week for the first three weeks (right inline with July, I'm guessing), and 50K for Nintendogs launch week.

sonycowboy said:
What would be a MONSTER sales month to you?
Click to expand...

SW - 250K+
HW - 150K+ (considering only 5 days of Nintendogs sales to help it)

sonycowboy said:
What would be a disappointing bow?
Click to expand...

SW - < 80K
HW - < 100K (Yes, I've been disappointed a lot lately :-p )
 
ThongyDonk said:
a new craze is loooooong over due, so i expect we have it, especially with the first game looking to do soooo well.
Next installment with some wi-fi swapping of dogs etc would prob go mad
Click to expand...

Wait..I thought you could trade dogs with others?
 
sonycowboy said:
112k ;)

June = 5 week month, Blue DS, Bundle w/Mario 64DS, Kirby, MegaMan, GoldenEye, Meteos, & Splinter Cell. In July, the DS numbers fell back down well below 100k again (like April & May).
Click to expand...

Did I miss anything?

Well, predictions:

A) 130k
B) Lab 40k, Chi 30k, Dachs 60k
C) 110k(only five days with AW, Nintendogs and the price reduction)
 
1. 90k
2. Lab 30k, Chi 10k, Dach, 50k
3. 105k

Monster sales for me would be 150k(hardware) and 200k(software), while disappointing would be 75k (hardware) and 68k (software).
 
sonycowboy said:
OK. This is a wildcard, but looking at daily sales on the major websites and speaking to retailers, and alot of folks on GAF saying it sold out, it looks like Nintendogs is off to a healthy start and taking the DS hardware with it. I'm doing this early, before Nintendo issues any press release saying how well it launched, just in case.

August's retail month ends this Saturday (August 27th), so we'll only get 5 days of Nintendogs sales.

So, here's the challenge:

Predict:

a) Total Nintendogs sales
b) Distribution among the three (Labrador, Chihuaha, Dachshund)
c) DS sales for the month

What would be a MONSTER sales month to you? What would be a disappointing bow?
Click to expand...

a) 120.000
b) Lab - 40.000, Chi - 30.000, Dach - 50.000
c) 150.000

Monster sales:

SW: > 200.000
HW: > 225.000

Disappointing bow:

SW: < 75.000
HW: < 100.000
 
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