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OT | Dutch General Election 2017 | Exit Poll: Major underperformance for Wilders
- Thread starter CrunchyB
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I had this discussion with a left winger just a few weeks ago, who was complaining about how the government were such bastards and keeping her from having money and pensions and blablabla and I pointed out to her that it was mostly the left leaning PvdA and center-left CDA that figured the sky was the limit when they went through the 70s onwards economic boom and didn't calculate into anything that maybe they should save a bit of money for a rainy day.
Especially on the pension front, it baffles me that nobody in that generation ever thought about what would happen if they spend all the pension money right then and there and the next generation would have half the working force that the babyboomers had. Governments like Den Uyl and Van Agt should really have had more foresight into how epicly they would be screwing over their own generation as well as the next. I mean, all that money they gained from selling the Groninger Gas, and what do we have to show for it?
I really hope Piratenpartij gets one zetel. Just one is enough.
My life for a kiesdrempel, no party getting under 5% of voters should get a seat at all, maybe a reserved spectators seat in the balcony.
I like the stances De Piratenpartij has on thir world relationships and refugees. I don't like the fact there is a paragraph on sustainability in their program but not a word on cattle and animal welfare. Did I miss that somewhere? It's a big issue for me when it comes to the envirnment and respect for every living being.
I really hope Piratenpartij gets one zetel. Just one is enough.
Yes, i do want one seat..i really want it, i do hope people will vote.
ClosingADoor
Member
Nice article in NYT about Russian activity in Holland during the Ukraine referendum last year: https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/16/world/europe/russia-ukraine-fake-news-dutch-vote.html
Note that one of the main people involved in that referendum has since started his own political party. Probably won't go anywhere, but still.
And apparently the SP doesn't deem is necessary to check the identity of people they use in their campaigns. Sounds like they got a trustworthy operation going /s
Note that one of the main people involved in that referendum has since started his own political party. Probably won't go anywhere, but still.
And apparently the SP doesn't deem is necessary to check the identity of people they use in their campaigns. Sounds like they got a trustworthy operation going /s
ClosingADoor
Member
Wilders finding excuses to not participate in another debate. http://www.at5.nl/artikelen/165916/wilders-geen-carrdebat-na-interview-broer
Counting down until he cancels the next one. Really doesn't want to get any push back or questions does he. Looks like he is afraid to lose momentum if he has to go up against the other parties in a debate.
Counting down until he cancels the next one. Really doesn't want to get any push back or questions does he. Looks like he is afraid to lose momentum if he has to go up against the other parties in a debate.
YourMaster
Member
That party (the socialist party, or SP) actually exists for almost 50 years already.
There has been no evidence, and it seems very unlikely that the people involved in organizing the referendum - who since have launched two new political parties - had anything to do with Russia. They are actually very pro-democracy, pro-europe, anti-EU.
More so, it is also bullshit to imply that Russia had any relevant effect on the outcome, as propaganda can indeed shift outcomes a few percentages either direction (which in US presidential elections can mean all the difference), but among the dutch electorate - and among the people who actually voted - there's actually two-thirds against increased integration with the Ukraine. Far to large a margin to have been originated from a single propaganda source, and completely in line with expectations from earlier polls on similar subjects.
Simply put, very ironically, this article about 'fake news' is actually 'fake news'.
YourMaster
Member
What did you do to deserve the seat? Have you at the very least gotten rid of all the people involved 4 and 8 years ago that failed to capture a seat.
Personally I would consider you for the privacy aspects, but I'm really turned off by your other positions. Like reduced investments in roads, abolishing the single policy that actually managed to make healthcare more cost effective, going for wind-energy when solar would be a better alternative and going for energy storage over production would be by far the smarter option. Even some of your 'digital' positions seem overly naive, who would put any faith in 'making agreements with other countries in not developing digital weapons'.
And not unimportant, I've seen no effective strategy yet to actually get one or more seats.
ClosingADoor
Member
That the party exists for 50 years and their stances towards Europe does not excuse them . I mean, how does a politician say this and go "well, that is OK":
This is literally saying you don't care about your sources, as long as it furthers your own agenda. That is not how a politician should act and the SP should be ashamed of themselves for it.
Well if it is anything like Norway: they are the most numerous. So no political party wants to get that age group against them. And it is hilarious, because the 50+ crowd is actually fucked themselves. They are nto babyboomers nor old, they are just a welcome goon to help get teh 60+ till -75 what they want.
.Freeza Under The Shower
Member
The SP has literally never been a 'pro-democracy' party. It started as a communist party of all things, and only begrudgingly accepted democratic institutions into its party structure.
Hell, the way they're run, they're still balls deep into non-democratic expectations (no wonder they started in Brabant, with its authoritarianism). That is part of why they're against the EU to begin with.
YourMaster
Member
I agree it is shameful of the SP. I was responding to the poster above not to excuse the SP of allowing stooges on their podium, but by trying to address the false impression he was (unintentionally) giving.
He linked to some shoddy journalistic piece that made it seem like Russia actually managed to change the results of the referendum - which is ridiculous and unfounded. Not only when you look at the numbers, but also that the only source they have that the Russian-boost of SP campaigning was effective, was the SP that said their own campaigning was effective, and even they did not dare claim this gave the 'no camp' a 30% boost.
Then the way he worded the comment made it more confusing, in making it look like the people who were influenced by Russia (the SP) went on to actually found a political party that will now join the election. This implies that Russia has additional influence on the upcoming election. While the face is that the SP is 50 years old, and it are completely different people - those who initiated the referendum and have nothing to do with Russia at all(or so it seems/we hope) - have founded a new pro-democracy party.
Not the SP,.... that's not a new party now is it and they had nothing to do with the referendum apart from campaigning for 'no'. He was conflating two parties, and it is actually 'Forum for Democracy' that are initiators of the referendum that have founded a political party.
I don't know about you guys, but I'm enjoying this chaos at 50plus. Prutsers.
They are confused on who is going to pay for early retirement and Henk Krol was caught lying again, this time about his CV
They are confused on who is going to pay for early retirement and Henk Krol was caught lying again, this time about his CV
ClosingADoor
Member
I always trust the parties that don't have their plans calculated by the CBS... /s
I hope they drop in the polls. Keeping the retirement age back to 65 is just an irresponsible thing to do and will burden the generation going into the workplace now even more. Pay more for your studies, pay more for housing, no stable career prospects, but please keep paying so the richest group in the country can retire earlier.
Agreed, although I'm fine with making exceptions for physically demanding jobs. But that's not what 50plus is saying, they want early AOW for all.
I'm a software engineer and I'm going to treat the AOW (if any) as an extra. I'll make sure I have a home paid off, a pension and some spare cash so I will have options when I'm tired of working, AOW or no AOW.
My dad, OTOH, is 63 years old and worked factory shifts for 40 years. A few years ago he beat cancer but then he started having heart problems, for which he will be operated later this year. I don't think it's realistic to expect him to work (full time) much longer. It's not a lazy office job, it's working irregular hours in a noisy and humid factory.
Same thing for people working in construction.
It's completely different from working in software or any other office job. So I have no problem for lowering the AOW age for those types of jobs.
YourMaster
Member
To be fair, the calculations from the CBS are pointless for any party with any kind of vision - good or bad. They ignore any proposals that they don't know how to calculate, are unconstitutional or against international treaties, and do very little with the bigger effects said policies may incur.
The 50+ party has willingly allowed the crook back as their lead man, so no surprises here, but take their example of early retirement,.... I also think it is a bad idea and too expensive, but CBS here calculates the direct costs of pensions, reduced taxes on salary, reduced benefits from otherwise unemployed 66 year olds, etc. But if 55+ were to argue that 65 year olds would take really good care of their grandchildren and would result in people having more children and more women working full time that hypothetical effect would not be included.
For the PVV this would be more extreme, where say they claim reducing immigration to zero will also reduce crime rates to zero, allow people to feel save again, be happy, spend more, whatever. Or their critics, who would state that their policies would give more conflict in society, reduce tourism, skilled labour into the country. You can't simply tally up 'ok, 1000 more immigration officers, that's 100 million a year'.
Simply put, they calculate small deviations from the status quo, never changes in behavior of people affected by big plans.
Did anybody catch the debate today? That handshake-moment between Klaver and Asscher was cringeworthy. :/ I mean, I have always hated Asscher with a passion, but I liked Klaver in the beginning. The past few weeks, however, I've begun to feel that Klaver is more style than substance... substantially more style than substance, actually. I can't imagine him governing our country, he just screams incompetence to me... But yeah, better him than a rightwing government, I guess.
And Buma wanting to bring back description. Fuck off CDA. Who comes up with this shit? Van der Staaij calling Roemer Kroemer was funny and actually quite fitting, too.
I don't know if I can put up with 3 more weeks of this.
And Buma wanting to bring back description. Fuck off CDA. Who comes up with this shit? Van der Staaij calling Roemer Kroemer was funny and actually quite fitting, too.
I don't know if I can put up with 3 more weeks of this.
YourMaster
Member
I haven't seen it, but Klaver is trying to hard to imitate US presidents. First he kept trying to have people call him JFK, then it was all Obama and in the process he's trying to lie more than Trump ever has. Lying on your resume should stop you from getting elected, it's a shame so many people seem to disagree with this.
On the left Monasch seems like a much better alternative.
Y-Z
Member
Yeah, the Zondag met Lubach video where they can match every word of Klaver's speech in Obama speeches was amazing to watch. Also when he is asked to explain his economic plans he shuts down and just says its easy.
ClosingADoor
Member
Klaver is a lot less smart and charming then he thinks himself. When things don't go his way in the debate, he doesn't know how the handle it and can't even handle simple questions.
Rutte needs to give some clear answers to direct questions or just say "we have no current plans for it, it depends on the developments in the next years". The piece about the NATO norm was embarrassing.
For some reason Van der Staaij comes across as the most trustworthy one. Can't help but like the guy, although he will never got a vote based on the backwards religious stuff he and his party believes in.
Rutte needs to give some clear answers to direct questions or just say "we have no current plans for it, it depends on the developments in the next years". The piece about the NATO norm was embarrassing.
For some reason Van der Staaij comes across as the most trustworthy one. Can't help but like the guy, although he will never got a vote based on the backwards religious stuff he and his party believes in.
Good..sorry to say but fuck wilders.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-24/how-geert-wilders-found-his-voice-in-the-u-s
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-24/how-geert-wilders-found-his-voice-in-the-u-s
Daria Morgendorffer
Member
Jesus how childish is Wilders with all this stuff of cancelling tv interviews, saying nieuwsuur is "not fun"
He's got nothing to gain by attending. His audience is not watching the show anyway.
Chuckie
Member
Always-honest
Banned
Vote, fellow Dutchies. VOTE!
ClosingADoor
Member
Wilders only wants to do things that are fun? Well... guess he's out of the running for prime minister. Doesn't sound like the most fun job all the time after all.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
ClosingADoor
Member
Don't know about that. I mean, the guys "plan" is literally one piece of paper with a small list. That's it. No clue on how to achieve those things, no calculations how to pay for it, nothing. You'd think those older voters would be impacted by that already if they are looking for someone up for the job.
I wonder what will happen to the PVV's poll numbers if he starts ditching telvised debates during the election campaign?
Nothing. Nothing will happen because the guy is near invincible right now if you can't directly debate him. Voters don't care.
Finally struggled through the programmes of CDA, D66, and PVDA (the three parties I landed on the most with Stemwijzer, kieskompas and the likes) and landed on voting D66. There's some stances in there I don't completely agree with, but they come closest to my ideal policies, and I can live with the differences, so they get my vote.
I imagine Geert Wilders is well aware of his inability to adequately respond to being called on various stances of his in debates, the more debates he's in, the more likely he is to cock up and actually see his poll numbers hurt. He's much better off pretending he's just resisting the establishment by saying no to debates and TV programmes.
HarryHengst
Member
I actually think Wilders is deliberately trying to lower his number of seats. He just wants like 15-20 seats so he can sit comfortably in the opposition doing what he likes best, without any of that nasty responsibility. Actually im thinking he is working on his exit strategy so he can move to the US and perhaps finally be free of living with protection 24/7. He is mostly doing interviews with foreign press these days and i think that is part of his preparations for a move out of Dutch politics.
Since we are talking about the PVV now looking at recent seat count projections from some pollsters it looks like the VVD is closing the gap with the PVV and IPSOS shows the VVD ahead of the PVV in terms of the popular vote right now. This election is going to get interesting now. I do think the VVD will collapse a bit in terms of the popular vote during the election campaign now. I do hope the PvdA can recover a bit once this collapse occurs. I'm thinking there is like a 55% chance of the PVV losing the March election at this point. Both him and Le Pen losing their elections like two months apart will be great.
Yep. The people who are voting for him will be doing so based on everything he has said recently and further back in the past; any missteps in a televised debate can only lose him votes and it's unlikely that non-PVV voters will suddenly be convinced. It's a good strategy.
No SGP fans out here?
Do SGP voters even have internet? Half serious question :U
Today they do. Not on Sunday though.
The article even linked to another article by Politico, where they stated that Wilders is 'the man who invented Trupism'. And then they keep contradicting themselves, stating that Wilders is using Trump's tactics.
ClosingADoor
Member
Well, I got them as number 2 in the Stemwijzer. But that one didn't include any of their religious stuff I oppose, which would tank their position.No SGP fans out here?
White Wolf
Member
No SGP fans out here?
not too surprising too, aren't sgp considered rather rightwing/conservative? not even talking about the bible stuff, no same sex marriage, sunday rest day, and whatever
i think christenunie is considered to be more leftwing, right?
I'm inclined to go d66 or sp, not really sure. groenlinks scored well in my stemwijzers, too
They have a pretty solid fanbase that most parties would be jealous of. They seem pretty consistent and could always count on 2-3 seats. I won't be surprised if they hit 4. They have also toned down the religious stuff quiet a bit, until they have enough seats to put it back on their agenda
.Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Based on this and every party getting the exact middle of the range, a VVD+D66+GL+CDA coalition would net 77 seats. That's the best hope I have right now. With CDA and D66 in there, I think VVD could live with working with GL as well.
Didn't CDA say they do not want to work with the left/green parties?
Even so, I can't imagine how VVD and GL could reconcile their differences.
It's either VVD/CDA working with GL or PVV working with GL/D66. Neither is what any party want, but I find the former option still the more likely one.
Imp the Dimp
Member
Nice summary OP, thanks for that. Frightening that Wilders has such a big voter potential.
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