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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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R

Red Arremer

Member
Hollywood Duo said:
Sure anything is possible but incredibly shallow analysis saying it'll happen because it happen s before adds nothing to the conversation.
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I don't think anyone here has been saying Le Pen was gonna win 100% sure because of Brexit and Trump. That would be silly.
People were concerned that she might win because the right has had massive successes in the last year.
 
H

HaloRose

Banned
TBH this election is over now he's won i'm more worried in 5 years i know 5 years is really long time if marcon turns out another hollande thats just scared me for 2022 election!
 
O

orioto

Good Art™
Voted! But lore importantly i bought a pain au chocolat on my way back (and a pain suisse cause buying one only pastry is always sad!)
 
F

Fisico

Member
Kilrogg said:
You haven't been following this election or my posts if that's what my post reminds you of.

Trust me, I'm more worried than most that she might win after what happened in the US. Most French natives on GAF are like that I assume, because we, more than the average voter, are aware of what happened in the US. I've been worried since the premier tour. I still believe a Le Pen victory is a possibility. But assuming she will lose, which would already be swell, it would be wonderful if she fared even worse than polls predict.

[EDIT] Reaslistically, the worst realistic scenario I'm expecting is 55/45 for Macron.
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More like french native being heavily influenced in their mindset by what happened outside France.
I'm a french native, I keep a close eye on what's happening around the world but moreso an even closer eye on what's happening in my native country and the likelihood of a Le Pen's victory fluctuated between 0 and 1% after the first turn.

It's okay to prepare yourself for the the worst and fight to prevent it from happening, if many didn't do that we wouldn't have the result we'll hear in 2 and half an hour now, but realistically it's not even close at all.
 
K

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
Fisico said:
More like french native being heavily influenced in their mindset by what happened outside France.
I'm a french native, I keep a close eye on what's happening around the world but moreso an even closer eye on what's happening in my native country and the likelihood of a Le Pen's victory fluctuated between 0 and 1% after the first turn.

It's okay to prepare yourself for the the worst and fight to prevent it from happening, if many didn't do that we wouldn't have the result we'll hear in 2 and half an hour now, but realistically it's not even close at all.
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Right. But I won't "tenter le diable", comme on dit ;).
 
O

oti

Banned
orioto said:
Voted! But lore importantly i bought a pain au chocolat on my way back (and a pain suisse cause buying one only pastry is always sad!)
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pain suisse? Is there also a pain allemand? Because we do have a Franzbrötchen.

2204-Franzbr%C3%B6tchen.jpg
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N

N7.Angel

Member
Kilrogg said:
Same in Moselle. Metz put Macron largely in front of everyone else, and Le Pen ended in #4, but Moselle as whole put her in first, even cities that are part of the Metz agglomération. It's sad.



Right, obviously. 80/20 like 2002 would be the only uplifting results, to be sure, but still, her losing 5-10 points compared to the polls would be encouraging.
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Je suis aussi de Metz ; )
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I was hoping for a :D but :) is good enough.
I'm tempted to go to the Louvres tonight. Not that I'd have anything to do there, but it's just a way to say "I was there".
 
N

Neoweee

Member
Red Arremer said:
I don't think anyone here has been saying Le Pen was gonna win 100% sure because of Brexit and Trump. That would be silly.
People were concerned that she might win because the right has had massive successes in the last year.
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And a lot of losses. Right parties have underperformed relative to polls, on average. There is no Electoral College to worry about that amplifies slight polling errors. Brexit straight up led in most of the polls in the final month, so it coming as a surprise to people wasn't based on realistic perceptions.

Here, Le Pen is polling down by 20 points, with a mean polling error at this stage of French elections at around 4%.

Using Trump/Brexit as examples ignores how vastly worse of a position Le Pen is in.
 
B

BigAl1992

Member
Herb Alpert said:
Not a journalist but I'm a technician and today I work for one of the numerous tv network that will do a special edition tonight.
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As curious as I am about how the result will pan out, I would advise you to remain quiet about how the result is going until the polls is about to close as NeoGAF is an open forum, and anyone could be reading this thread right now.
 
H

Herb Alpert

Banned
BigAl1992 said:
As curious as I am about how the result will pan out, I would advise you to remain quiet about how the result is going until the polls is about to close as NeoGAF is an open forum, and anyone could be reading this thread right now.
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Ho I won't give any number. But belgian media will :)
 
I

Irminsul

Member
Red Arremer said:
People were concerned that she might win because the right has had massive successes in the last year.
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Sure, you can be concerned, but this whole "Polls don't work anymore!" adds nothing to the conversation, besides being just wrong. Polls worked remarkably well in the first round, and even with a polling error five times the size of the US election (which would statisticially be much more improbable than just 1/5th), Macron would still win. So at some point it just becoms spreading fear in spite of the evidence.
 
R

Red Arremer

Member
Irminsul said:
Sure, you can be concerned, but this whole "Polls don't work anymore!" adds nothing to the conversation, besides being just wrong. Polls worked remarkably well in the first round, and even with a polling error five times the size of the US election (which would statisticially be much more improbable than just 1/5th), Macron would still win. So at some point it just becoms spreading fear in spite of the evidence.
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I... never said the polls don't work anymore or are wrong? In fact, I even brought up polls in regards to the Austrian parliamentary election next year.
 
K

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
Fisico said:
Macron is no Goku though, imagine if it was Vegeta instead :p
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The FN is definitely Frieza though: it keeps coming back in a more powerful form. Jean-Marie Lepen is General Cold by the way. Hopefully MLP is already in her final form at full power and she won't come back as Cyber-Frieza lol. And there's no Cell coming up.
 
I

Irminsul

Member
Red Arremer said:
I... never said the polls don't work anymore or are wrong? In fact, I even brought up polls in regards to the Austrian parliamentary election next year.
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You said, "people were concerned" and I said "No, people made up scenarios not backed by evidence". I wasn't talking about you personally.
 
J

Jb

Member
Alx said:
I was hoping for a :D but :) is good enough.
I'm tempted to go to the Louvres tonight. Not that I'd have anything to do there, but it's just a way to say "I was there".
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I'll probably go. They picked a good spot + it will be nice to celebrate with others.
 
M

MMarston

Was getting caught part of your plan?
Kilrogg said:
The FN is definitely Frieza though: it keeps coming back in a more powerful form. Jean-Marie Lepen is General Cold by the way. Hopefully MLP is already in her final form at full power and she won't come back as Cyber-Frieza lol. And there's no Cell coming up.
Click to expand...

tumblr_mfzfcwTioQ1qml3l0o1_500.gif


^Hopefully this won't be the case.
 
Eolz

Eolz

Member
orioto said:
Voted! But lore importantly i bought a pain au chocolat on my way back (and a pain suisse cause buying one only pastry is always sad!)
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I know my pastries, but what the hell is a pain suisse?
I guess it's regional? Like in the south with the Jesuite, patte d'ours, etc?
 
U

UnluckyKate

Member
#RadioLondres is both hilarious and relieving.

Two more hours and we will show the US and UK how its done, how you don't fuck with French democracy
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
Kilrogg said:
The FN is definitely Frieza though: it keeps coming back in a more powerful form. Jean-Marie Lepen is General Cold by the way. Hopefully MLP is already in her final form at full power and she won't come back as Cyber-Frieza lol. And there's no Cell coming up.
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The thing is that she's naturally strong and has always relied on just bullying her opponents and yelling about immigration, Islam, the EU, defending le peuple and la nation. As a result, she never really prepared and got trounced on Wednesday.

Imagine if she finally trained and came back.

Sgt. Kabukiman said:
Alright, alright, alright.
Me at home right now:
60539689.jpg
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We're on the fence between beer and wine,
pourquoipaslesdeux.gif
 
O

oti

Banned
Today are also the elections in the North of Germany. Let's hope the far-right gets stomped here as well.

Xando said:
Don't listen to him. Franzbrötchen is the best thing ever (Atleast if it is from Hamburg).
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I know. We know.

🤜🤛
 
F

Frankfurter

Member
Oreiller said:
According to RTBF, Macron is leading with 62,5%.
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Great news. Vive la France!


oti said:
Today are also the elections in the North of Germany. Let's hope the far-right gets stomped here as well.



I know. We know.

����
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Personally hoping for an upset with the AfD not making the 5% threshold.

Edit: Damn, first results put them at 5.5%. These are usually very accurate, so I doubt it's gonna be less than 5% at the end.
 
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