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[Alx]

"Les chars de l'Armée Rouge aux portes de Paris !"

Nothing to do with that. It's not about the government being a puppet of Russia, but about European countries being less of an opposition through division. Whoever is in charge, a divided Europe is weaker than a united Europe. Do you think sanctions for Ukraine would have had the same impact if they depended on 27 independent decisions ?

That's precisely why it is important, much more than stuff like Trump for example. In 4 or 8 years, Trump will be gone and someone probably more reasonable will replace him. But the US will still be there.
Whoever is French president tomorrow, if (s)he destroys EU, 5-10 years later the EU will still be destroyed.

 

[Sinsem]

Whoever is French president tomorrow, if (s)he destroys EU, 5-10 years later the EU will still be destroyed.

If one person alone has the power to destroy the EU, there's already something wrong.
Let's use the negociations to fix that

 

[Alx]

If one person alone has the power to destroy the EU, there's already something wrong.
Let's use the negociations to fix that

The president of a major country is more than "one person alone", that's why he should be chosen carefully.

Seriously, you can dodge it forever with blind optimism, but just answer this question : why does Putin support all eurosceptic initiatives ?

 

[Fisico]

The EU and NATO.
Would get France to join the ALBA with nice fellow like Maduro and a huge number of fiscal paradise like Saint John and Kills.
Organisation that have Putin, Assad as invited guest.
(Point 62 of his program).

What could go wrong?

So that's "only" on the international side of things?

France only joined NATO very recently so I don't think that one is big let alone destructive.

The EU it remains to be seen, though that's the biggest offender by far, wanting to apply the same shift he wants to apply to France to EU seems pretty obvious.
After what happened with Tsipras and Brexit I think it's clear you might have your hands tied if you're too small and free to do whatever if you're big enough, if he was to be in power it's however pretty clear there won't be a straight Frexit in the short term.

His stance on EU isn't as binary as Le Pen, thus less destructive, "he" as president is also supposed to be something that doesn't last because of the VIth republic and all that (I find that point rather doubtful, but that's what is in his programm) so his power shouldn't be overestimated

ALBA is a huge WTF, it seems to be mainly aimed for the DOM-TOM near continental America which makes sense on a geostrategic point of view (I mean that's what we're doing with EU, working with our closest neighbors) as for fiscal paradises lol considering what we've done so far (even within EU with Luxembourg, Irland and Netherlands).
Not trying to defend it, I'll never understand the passivity towards fiscal paradise (or rather I understand it too well), and it's one of the numerous topics that is strangely absent from the campaign, but it's being a bit blindsided to think that others candidates, especially Fillon and Macron, have a "better" stance on the topic than Melenchon

But again what would the two of these topics destroy considering what we have now?

As for eventual siding with Assad and Putin even in a indirect way yeah...
I don't think these conflicts are as binary as some make it to be (they never are) but he doesn't strike as someone reasonable for our country there.

Are every other points of his project not destructive then?

 

[Elandyll]

"Les chars de l'Armée Rouge aux portes de Paris !"

It sounds funny, because it's so far fetched and borderline fantasy, right?

Probably a lot less funny if you are in Eastern Europe, and especially less funny if you live in Ukraine, and further less so if you are in Crimea.

 

[chromatic9]

But leaving EU means most probably destroying EU, and that's definitive. You'd just dismantle the result of 60 years of work and negotiations, and if you make it fail nobody will want to try again after some time. Especially not with the country that dealt the fatal blow.

Soviet Union lasted around 70 years. Not comparing the two Unions but the EU will only last until it doesn't, no importance should be put on the amount of time it's existed or said work put in. I'm sure you'll argue the virtues of the EU and I'd probably agree but you could find many who said the same of the Soviet Union.

 

[G.O.O.]

The international part of Mélenchon's program is clearly the most worrying to me. It's almost Trump levels of bad, and his supporters seem split between "he doesn't mean this" and pure fake news territory.

Some would say Macron is devoid of any ideology but I would see that as a good thing if the opposite means something like this.

 

[Koren]

Yes it's all about EU for me.

Same for me (including everything you said).

I'm almost relieved that we have a slightly different view on trains, or I would still wonder whether we would ever disagree on anything

 

[Alx]

Soviet Union lasted around 70 years. Not comparing the two Unions but the EU will only last until it doesn't, no importance should be put on the amount of time it's existed or said work put in. I'm sure you'll argue the virtues of the EU and I'd probably agree but you could find many who said the same of the Soviet Union.

Nothing lasts forever obviously, but there is a major difference between Soviet Union and EU. The former was created more arbitrarily from the domination of a single regime, and crumbled when the countries were given the opportunity of going their own way. EU was created by the intentional alliance of independent countries, who purposefully built its institutions for the sake of all (one can argue how successful that was, but can't deny it's the intention).
You could also try to compare it with the US, with yet another difference being that each member is still independent. But even then, if there was a push for "Calexit" that would threaten the mere existence of the United States, I'm sure most Americans would think "are you sure about that ? Because there's no going back..." rather than "oh well it was fun while it lasted".

Same for me (including everything you said).

I'm almost relieved that we have a slightly different view on trains, or I would still wonder whether we would ever disagree on anything

Spoiler alert : my name is Tyler Durden.

 

[Sinsem]

Seriously, you can dodge it forever with blind optimism, but just answer this question : why does Putin support all eurosceptic initiatives ?

Why is there so much euroscepticism though?
It's not new. I'll say it again, but french citizens voted No to the european constitution in 2005, and it was forced down their throat.
So yeah, maybe it's good for Putin, but then again, Europe austerity is fueling the far right nationalist wave, I think most of people have others things in mind than Russia all day long. If we had to play the Putin game everytime we made a decision...

Probably a lot less funny if you are in Eastern Europe, and especially less funny if you live in Ukraine, and further less so if you are in Crimea.

Don't make french voters the sole accountable for what happens in other countries.
We have Europe, NATO, and everything, yet Crimea was invaded anyway.
France staying in a military alliance led by a trigger-happy billionaire is certainly not going to prevent that.
If anyone care for the European Union, they'll negociate. Yeah it's not fair, it never was.

Maybe instead of saying stupid things like "Russia is going to invade us" or "it's going to be Venezuela" the french media and Mélenchon's opponents should consider saying "A weaker Europe put Eastern Countries in danger against Putin". But I don't see anyone doing it.

 

[Alx]

.

You're still dodging the question. "It's good for Putin" is like saying "that's what he wants", but the question is why ?
Because the real question isn't about whether it is good for Putin or not, but if it is good for us.

Maybe instead of saying stupid things like "Russia is going to invade us" or "it's going to be Venezuela" the french media and Mélenchon's opponents should consider saying "A weaker Europe put Eastern Countries in danger against Putin". But I don't see anyone doing it.

Maybe you should build your own opinion instead of relying on the media or the politicians to do it for you.

 

[Sinsem]

Honestly?
I don't care.

Maybe you should build your own opinion instead of relying on the media or the politicians to do it for you.

I don't, if I was, I'd be terrified and voting Macron.

 

[Alx]

Honestly?
I don't care.

You should. When choosing a path that leads to major consequences, you should wonder if it is a good thing or not. And when people whose interests are opposite to yours are pushing you on that path, it's worth thinking a bit more.

 

[chromatic9]

Nothing lasts forever obviously, but there is a major difference between Soviet Union and EU. The former was created more arbitrarily from the domination of a single regime, and crumbled when the countries were given the opportunity of going their own way. EU was created by the intentional alliance of independent countries, who purposefully built its institutions for the sake of all (one can argue how successful that was, but can't deny it's the intention).
You could also try to compare it with the US, with yet another difference being that each member is still independent. But even then, if there was a push for "Calexit" that would threaten the mere existence of the United States, I'm sure most Americans would think "are you sure about that ? Because there's no going back..." rather than "oh well it was fun while it lasted".

Well people/countries bought into the socialist communist way to stop the exploitation of capitalists. It may have broke up due to economic collapse and how it ended up just failing. It had good intentions. The EU could slide towards more centralized power and even become socialist erring on communist. Europe has thousands of years of history for each country, it's hard to compare the US to it as it's come from the opposite end. It could take a thousand years for it to unravel in the US as those states find themselves slowly differing more or perhaps never as that's how it's most been much like regions within a single country that have remained for hundreds of years but bringing countries together can lead to it all falling down relatively quickly.

Bottom line is years and work become a foot note in history. There could come a time when US states split or there could not. Whether it's 100 years or a 1000 years. EU will go once it's due. Saying "60 years all that work" means nothing ultimately.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Damn I don't know who to vote for anymore. My first choice who was Mélenchon or the safer anti-Le Pen vote (vote utile) Macron.

 

[Alx]

Bottom line is years and work become a foot note in history. There could come a time when US states split or there could not. Whether it's 100 years or a 1000 years. EU will go once it's due. Saying "60 years all that work" means nothing ultimately.

Well it's not so much that I don't want those years to go to waste, but that it would set us back 60 years and we'd need at least as much time to build a decent alternative (maybe slightly less, but like I said, in case of a total failure we may not want to have another go before long).
If anything, I wouldn't mind throwing away EU and its 60 years of conception if someone came with a realistic "EU 2.0" plan with major improvements. Except that it's not what is offered right now, it's "slow improvement of current EU or no EU at all".

 

[Fisico]

Damn I don't know who to vote for anymore. My first choice who was Mélenchon or the safer anti-Le Pen vote (vote utile) Macron.

That's an interesting dilemma to say the least.
Why not Hamon since he is between them (but closer to Melenchon)?

 

[G.O.O.]

More interesting electoral data guys ?

Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

edit : forgot the source : http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

 

[WildFactor]

If you're a socialist, from my point of view, Hamon has the best proposition.
But if you want to vote safely, I think Melenchon should be your choice.

Macron is not really socialist.

 

[Chibrou]

I like those 2 % that would go to arthaud if mlp was not there, like, wtf ?

 

[G.O.O.]

I like those 2 % that would go to arthaud if mlp was not there, like, wtf ?

Dunno. Misguided feminists ?

 

[ebil]

If you're a socialist, from my point of view, Hamon has the best proposition.
But if you want to vote safely, I think Melenchon should be your choice.

Macron is not really socialist.

That sums it up, and it's kind of depressing.

 

[Fisico]

More interesting electoral data guys ?

Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

While not 100% accurate I think that answers a question we had before about where would Hamon's electors go if he was to retire.

That 40% of Melenchon's elector 2nd choice is Macron is more surprising to me
Same thing for the second choice of Macron's electors with Melenchon at 30%.

Hamon is like the third choice now which is very very sad.

EDIT : Wait these numbers are only for the ones who said they're still not 100% sure.
While interesting it doesn't have the exact same meaning as I thought at first glance.

 

[Palette Swap]

More interesting electoral data guys ?

Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

Unless I'm misreading this, it's only meaningful when compounded with how large and brittle a given voting base is.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

That's an interesting dilemma to say the least.
Why not Hamon since he is between them (but closer to Melenchon)?

Hamon has no chance sadly. I'd hate to vote for a candidate and then see Le Pen and Fillon overtake Macron in the first round, if I could have just voted for Macron instead.

The dilemma comes from the idea that Mélenchon actually may have his chances, judging by the latest polls...

 

[MoodyFog]

More interesting electoral data guys ?

Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

edit : forgot the source : http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

The amount of people having Le Pen in first choice and Mélenchon in second really tells a lot about how stupid Le Pen voters are..

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Is the Socialists' color really pink or did Hamon just get that because Melenchon took red?

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Is the Socialists' color really pink or did Hamon just get that because Melenchon took red?

It's pink because the word "pink" in French is "rose" like the flower which is their symbol.

 

[O Canada Our Home and Native Land]

More interesting electoral data guys ?

http://i.imgur.com/LlQIKgp.jpg[img]

Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

edit : forgot the source : [url]http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf[/url][/QUOTE]

Can someone explain to me why MLP voters' second choice for Fillon is low compared to Macron and Melenchon?

 

[Fisico]

Can someone explain to me why MLP voters' second choice for Fillon is low compared to Macron and Melenchon?

Le Pen has mostly presented herself as someone against the system and the two main party UMPS as she said (UMP being "les républicains" now and PS still being PS).
Both parties have also been very vindicative about stopping FN from having any people elected with the "Front Republicain" as they said (well asides from a few exceptions where some from UMP sided with FN) so it's not surprising to see these low percentage for second choice for both Fillon and Hamon

It's also pretty obvious that Le Pen electors are the less educated from the top 5 candidates (but it's not like being educated automatically make you wise either)

 

[Alx]

Yes for someone who's anti-system or anti-EU, transitioning from MLP to Mélenchon makes sense. Also their economical programs aren't that different.
Transitioning to Macron is harder to explain, but it may be a "anything but Fillon" reaction.

 

[G.O.O.]

What fascinates me the most is how this destroys everything you'd expect about the average voter's reasoning.

 

[Koren]

That's an interesting dilemma to say the least.
Why not Hamon since he is between them (but closer to Melenchon)?

Because in our dumb electoral system, voting for Hamon only has value to support ideas if you know you'll get someone you can live with at the second turn.

If you dislike two of the top four, you have plently of reasons of NOT wasting your vote by voting for Hamon. And I'm pretty sure nearly all people dislike at least 2 of the top four.

If you're a socialist, from my point of view, Hamon has the best proposition.
But if you want to vote safely, I think Melenchon should be your choice.

Unless you value EU (and I'd say education, I really dislike what Melenchon want to do, but I'm not sure Hamon is that much better... right has great ideas for a lot of things, but they've been destroying education for a long time now)

Macron is not really socialist.

Definitively. He even nearly ran for mayor as UMP a couple years ago.

Still, most "socialists" that have been elected weren't socialists. I don't believe you can win an election by being a true socialist, in normal situations. In all cases, PS have been elected against the previous government (that's obvious for Hollande and the first Miterrand election... The second Mitterand election was trickier, but the looser was still the one that was the head of the governement before the election).

I guess alt-right + populism can win an election, though, if times are sufficiently bad and circonstances are "good".

Unless I'm misreading this, it's only meaningful when compounded with how large and brittle a given voting base is.

This data is available above...

 

[Ac30]

Did LePen have a gaffe or something? Her popularity is dropping precipitously and has been for a while now and she's fallen under Macron while Macron seems to have stabilized somewhat.

 

[whyamihere]

Fuck I'm still nervous it could be Le Pen and Fillon.

 

[mo60]

Did LePen have a gaffe or something? Her popularity is dropping precipitously and has been for a while now and she's fallen under Macron while Macron seems to have stabilized somewhat.

Melenchon and a few of the irrelevant cadidates are stealing support from her

 

[Ac30]

melenchon and a few pf the irrelevant cadidates are stealing support from her

The political spectrum is almost like a circle - go far enough right and you end up far left Seems that far right and far left are adopting similar ideas (outside of the racist angle). The left-right divide has really become open vs. closed.

If one person alone has the power to destroy the EU, there's already something wrong.
Let's use the negociations to fix that

That's not a sign of there being something wrong - Germany leaving would destroy it too, simply because France and Germany were integral to its founding and have always fought for deeper integration. You guys are one of the biggest markets and integral to the proper functioning of the Euro. The US leaving NATO would destroy it, just as California leaving the US would severely weaken the US itself. It doesn't mean there's something 'wrong'. If anything you guys should be happy you have so much influence. It's not "negotiating" when you tell them to accept your demands or you'll sink the entire project.

For the record I think an EU-wide eco-tax is a great idea, and would be for implementing that, but you need an international institution like the EU to implement it. Part of what makes the EU great is that it forces countries to harmonize many standards, allowing you to fight for an eco-tax. You can't exactly leave and then try to unilaterally push the tax. They were also the first major group to implement carbon pricing (which needs a serious overhaul), but the point is that you can enact far more together than apart.

To add, the EU is also one of the better defenses to corporate power - they recently fined trucking companies for colluding on price, have taken on Microsoft (and won), and are currently rightfully trying to get some of that tasty Apple tax money:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-apple-ireland-20160830-snap-story.html

If you didn't have the EU it would be far easier for corporations to run roughshod over France. Losing a market of 500 million is a far bigger threat to a corporation than losing a market of 80 million.

In short, please don't burn down a foundation that's taken 60 years to establish. Build on it.

 

[chromatic9]

Well it's not so much that I don't want those years to go to waste, but that it would set us back 60 years and we'd need at least as much time to build a decent alternative (maybe slightly less, but like I said, in case of a total failure we may not want to have another go before long).
If anything, I wouldn't mind throwing away EU and its 60 years of conception if someone came with a realistic "EU 2.0" plan with major improvements. Except that it's not what is offered right now, it's "slow improvement of current EU or no EU at all".

At least the frame work and trading bloc is there with general commonality should it fail. Also if somehow France gets in a position to have a referendum and vote leave, perhaps the EU will move fast to reconsolidate.

 

[Magni]

More interesting electoral data guys ?

Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

edit : forgot the source : http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

Those numbers are super worrying to me. Hamon voters are much more likely to break than Fillon voters are, and as I feared Hamon voters are much more likely to break for Mélenchon than for Macron.

Fillon voters really need to rethink their position here. Voting for a corrupt liar is bad enough, but costing us a Mélenchon vs Fillon second round?

Why couldn't it have been Hamon instead of Mélenchon? I'd be a lot less worried then.

 

[Dilly]

If one person alone has the power to destroy the EU, there's already something wrong.
Let's use the negociations to fix that

It's posts like these that reinforces the idea that the biggest thing the EU has failed in, is educating its citizens about how it works and what it actually does.

 

[Alx]

I must admit I'm pleasantly surprised by Poutou's campaign videos. They're obviously low on budget and even acting skills, but they're creative and effective at sending a simple message. And funny of course. It's quite something for a candidate who would otherwise be a nobody.
I just watched the one where he confronts a FN supporter in the market, love the zinger at the end "c'est clair Poutou, c'est pas un hologramme"

 

[Slaythe]

It's really frustrating to look at this situation.

Hamon was really the more grounded candidate of the left, instead we're getting this. Sigh.

 

[G.O.O.]

Did LePen have a gaffe or something? Her popularity is dropping precipitously and has been for a while now and she's fallen under Macron while Macron seems to have stabilized somewhat.

She did poorly in the debates, and Poutou hit her really hard. Then there was the vel d'hiv quote.

http://www.la-croix.com/France/Poli...cate-pour-Marine-Le-Pen-2017-04-13-1200839428

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Also French justice have asked for the EU to remove Le Pen's parliamentary immunity in the ongoing corruption case. Le Pen is trying to downplay this request, basically going like "uhhh it's the normal judicial procedure, nothing special here, it's totally normal let's talk about something else". Even though before her popularity took a dive she was trying to raise torches and pitchforks about this case by claiming that it's not the normal procedure at all and that there was a political conspiracy out to destroy her.

 

[Ac30]

She did poorly in the debates, and Poutou hit her really hard. Then there was the vel d'hiv quote.

http://www.la-croix.com/France/Poli...cate-pour-Marine-Le-Pen-2017-04-13-1200839428

Thanks.

I was wondering if that would ding her. What a dumb thing to say.

^It would be incredibly sad if both Fillon and MLP are in the second round and both are under investigation...

 

[mo60]

It looks like macron has stablized a bit in polls or gone up slightly while le pen has dropped further.He's now 3 to 6 points ahead of Fillon and Melenchon depending on the poll.

 

[Magni]

"François Fillon estime que Sens commun pourrait participer à son gouvernement"

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...ciper-a-son-gouvernement_5111923_4854003.html

Sens Commun is the political continuation of the Manif Pour Tous, the Catholic group that went apeshit when same sex marriage was legalized. What is it with "good Christians" and supporting crooks?

I'm really curious what the mood will be like at the embassy on Sunday. For US elections I vote by mail, so I didn't get to see other electors. Curious to see who Japanese residents will vote for.

 

[Ac30]

"François Fillon estime que Sens commun pourrait participer à son gouvernement"

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...ciper-a-son-gouvernement_5111923_4854003.html

Sens Commun is the political continuation of the Manif Pour Tous, the Catholic group that went apeshit when same sex marriage was legalized. What is it with "good Christians" and supporting crooks?

I'm really curious what the mood will be like at the embassy on Sunday. For US elections I vote by mail, so I didn't get to see other electors. Curious to see who Japanese residents will vote for.

Religious people will always be the biggest hypocrites.

 

[Fisico]

Fillon knows his only chance is a 2nd turn against Le Pen, it's getting painful to watch.

 

[Neo C.]

French Elections: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)