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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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More interesting electoral data guys ?

LlQIKgp.jpg


Macron & JLM are the second choice of many people, but Fillon and MLP aren't. This doesn't look too good for Fillon on 1st round, and MLP on the second.

edit : forgot the source : http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

This is crazy surprising. I would never expect Le Pen voters to go toward Macron since he represent at the same time the economical right and the liberal on societal issues. I would expect them to root for Fillon, since he share a lot with Le Pen about immigration and muslims.
 

Ac30

Member
This is crazy surprising. I would never expect Le Pen voters to go toward Macron since he represent at the same time the economical right and the liberal on societal issues. I would expect them to root for Fillon, since he share a lot with Le Pen about immigration and muslims.

Macron is somehow able to pull from the far left and the far right, lol. Magic man.
 

azyless

Member
This is crazy surprising. I would never expect Le Pen voters to go toward Macron since he represent at the same time the economical right and the liberal on societal issues. I would expect them to root for Fillon, since he share a lot with Le Pen about immigration and muslims.
You are french, right ? Thinking Le Pen voters would vote for Fillon of all people is pretty incredible. They're so proud to be "anti-system" (lol) and would vote for the guy that's spent more time than anyone else in the system and exploiting it while telling minimum wage workers to make an effort ? Nah.
I would have probably placed Mélenchon way before Macron though.
Le Pen voters are very unlikely to change their minds anyway, compared to other candidates' voters.
 
You are french, right ? Thinking Le Pen voters would vote for Fillon of all people is pretty incredible. They're so proud to be "anti-system" (lol) and would vote for the guy that's spent more time than anyone else in the system and exploiting it while telling minimum wage workers to make an effort ? Nah.
I would have probably placed Mélenchon way before Macron though.

They certainly voted for Sarkozy. (more than half of them in 2012)

I use to think that their is no chance they will vote for Mélenchon though. The prime motivation of the Front national vote is racism, so for me it's natural to think their second favorite would the more nationalist one. But maybe the antieuropean theme is very important for this election and they share a similar opinion about Europe, sadly.

The "anti-system" trope is used by everybody during this election, including Macron.
 
They certainly voted for Sarkozy. (more than half of them in 2012)

No chance they will vote for Mélanchon though. The prime motivation of the Front national vote is racism, so for me it's natural to think their second favorite would the more nationalist one.

The "anti-system" trope is used by everybody during this election, including Macron.
Not anymore.
People voting Le pen wants primarily shitbonnthe system.
You can see by the high number of Le Pen voter that wants to vote Mélanchon second.
Which is very coherent because apart from the racism. They have very identical program.
 

Alx

Member
I would have probably placed Mélenchon way before Macron though.

Yes but the opposition with Mélenchon on some topics is just as strong as they are close on others. Le Pen is all about being anti-system and nationalist, while Mélenchon is anti-system and internationalist. So depending on which part you favour more, Mélenchon is a good or bad fallback candidate.
Macron is clearly the most common second choice because he feels innocuous. Not really in the system but not really out of it, nothing really risky in his program, no major criticism to his person and moral values... he's "a safe choice".
 

Ac30

Member
It's quite comforting than the people voting primarily for Mélanchon wouldn't vote for Le Pen though.

They're for leftist economic policies but they aren't fascists or euro-skeptics, nor do they want France to be socially conservative. Thank God

I am legitimately impressed at Macron's ability to get votes, though. I was skeptical of his plan to transcend the left-ride divide (which, let's face it, is impossible) but he seems to have somehow gotten everyone from farmers to LePen's fanatic base to vote for him. I'm hoping it's because he's actually likable and not because two of the other four are under investigation and/or religious nuts :/

I'm also impressed that the worst the Russians seem to have tried to pin on him is rumors that he's closeted? Would the French even care if that were true lol
 

azyless

Member
They certainly voted for Sarkozy. (more than half of them in 2012)

I use to think that their is no chance they will vote for Mélenchon though. The prime motivation of the Front national vote is racism, so for me it's natural to think their second favorite would the more nationalist one. But maybe the antieuropean theme is very important for this election and they share a similar opinion about Europe, sadly.

The "anti-system" trope is used by everybody during this election, including Macron.
And I imagine in a second turn "Fillon/Hollande from 2012" they would vote Fillon too, that's not really the scenario here though.
I don't know, I honestly never thought Le Pen voters would have Fillon as a 2nd choice, specially not since all scandals.


Yes but the opposition with Mélenchon on some topics is just as strong as they are close on others. Le Pen is all about being anti-system and nationalist, while Mélenchon is anti-system and internationalist. So depending on which part you favour more, Mélenchon is a good or bad fallback candidate.
Macron is clearly the most common second choice because he feels innocuous. Not really in the system but not really out of it, nothing really risky in his program, no major criticism to his person and moral values... he's "a safe choice".
Yep you're right. I don't find it that surprising either, just would have thought Mélenchon would be first.
 

Alx

Member
They're for leftist economic policies but they aren't fascists or euro-skeptics, nor do they want France to be socially conservative. Thank God

I am legitimately impressed at Macron's ability to get votes, though. I was skeptical of his plan to transcend the left-ride divide (which, let's face it, is impossible)

There's absolutely no reason it can't be done, the left/right division is purely arbitrary and we can see how inconsistent the huge parties can get. We already see in this election that the question isn't really "workers vs employers" any more, which is at the origin of the left/right opposition, but "internationalism vs nationalism".
What is surprising is that one would have expected someone more charismatic than Macron to succeed in that task, but right now he's riding the perfect storm that gave him the opportunity. Hopefully he stays afloat.
 

azyless

Member
I'm also impressed that the worst the Russians seem to have tried to pin on him is rumors that he's closeted? Would the French even care if that were true lol
Oh Fillon voters would care lol, goodbye "Sens Commun". The most lunatics from FN too. Marion Maréchal would probably have a stroke if the president was gay.
Not sure about anyone else but there would be more to lose than to gain if that was the case.
 
Not anymore.
People voting Le pen wants primarily shitbonnthe system.
You can see by the high number of Le Pen voter that wants to vote Mélanchon second.
Which is very coherent because apart from the racism. They have very identical program.

I still think that above the whole populist rhetorics of Le Pen, the economics is still right-wing. The actual program is here. Cutting a lot of social responsibility in favor of small business, even cutting taxes on extra hours. Cut tax on revenue of 10 %.

The economical program of Melenchon is very different. Also on societal issues, Melenchon support gay marriage. They are however close since Melenchon is pushing toward a revalorization of the national identity with populist rhetorics about the legacy of colonization.
 
Not really in the system but not really out of it, nothing really risky in his program, no major criticism to his person and moral values... he's "a safe choice".

I, honestly, fail to see how Macron is not really in the system ?
Because he is not affiliated with either the PS or LR ?
 

Alx

Member
I, honestly, fail to see how Macron is not really in the system ?
Because he is not affiliated with either the PS or LR ?

Precisely. The big parties are commonly stuck in a for/against position, where they need to support everything "their side" has done, and reject what "the other side" does. Centrists like Bayrou have always claimed it was stupid and there is some room for a more open discussion. He always failed to get the message through, but Macron seems to have better luck.
In the end having a program doesn't mean being "from the left" or "from the right", but just having propositions, which may or may not be attached to a given political side. It's not really an anti-system stance, but it's not how the system works right now either.
 
The issue I'm seeing with this election is that even if Le Pen/Melechon do get removed during the 2nd round, none of the alternatives that would be elected in their place will be able to fix the many reasons that pushed a sizable part of the population to vote for them in first place.

So we're just delaying the clusterfuck at this point, if not this time you can expect that 5 years from now they might make it through.
 

azyless

Member
The issue I'm seeing with this election is that even if Le Pen/Melechon do get removed during the 2nd round, none of the alternatives that would be elected in their place will be able to fix the many reasons that pushed a sizable part of the population to vote for them in first place.

So we're just delaying the clusterfuck at this point, if not this time you can expect that 5 years from now they might make it through.
I don't really get the whole "give the FN 5 years, that'll get it out of people's system !" argument. Even if Macron or whoever else don't make things better I would still rather delay it as much as possible. Who knows where things will be in 5 years regarding unemployment, brexit, immigration, etc.
 

ElNarez

Banned
I, honestly, fail to see how Macron is not really in the system ?
Because he is not affiliated with either the PS or LR ?

Yeah, the ENA graduate who's been an adviser for Hollande and a minister in his government is the epitome of "anti-system".

If you really think that Macron is not the last desperate grasp of supporters of neoliberal policies that have failed everywhere every time they have been tried, you're a sucker. Macron now is almost guaranteeing Le Pen in five years.
 
I don't really get the whole "give the FN 5 years, that'll get it out of people's system !" argument. Even if Macron or whoever else don't make things better I would still rather delay it as much as possible. Who knows where things will be in 5 years regarding unemployment, brexit, immigration, etc.

I'm not saying that we should give them the election, quite the opposite.

But I'm also not seeing anything in the program of whoever will be elected that will address the current conjuncture that led us to this situation and it is worrying.

I'd just like to see a party provide realistic solutions to the automation/globalization issues, whether it is through sponsored re-specialization programs for employees that lost (or might lose) their jobs, easier access to entrepreneurship, anything really... And not just "tax the rich!", "tax the companies!", "exit Europe!", "tax everything from outside France!" as they will most likely make the situation worse and continue that trend towards extreme parties.
 

G.O.O.

Member
I, honestly, fail to see how Macron is not really in the system ?
Because he is not affiliated with either the PS or LR ?
I'd say because he built his own party with a lot of people from the civil society and became a frontrunner in a few months. It's impressive enough by itself, but that also means he isn't tied to a party base or officials who have been here for decades.
 

Sinsem

Member
And not just "tax the rich!", "tax the companies!

We'll need both of them at one point. Tax evasion represents 60 to 80 billions every year.
CAC40 dividends for last year : 55 billions.
On top of that 41 billions are distributed every year with the CICE and it clearly was not the solution either since unemployement grew up 30% in 5 years instead of the 1 million jobs promised.
The only one realistic solution there is is to take the money where it is.

that also means he isn't tied to a party base or officials who have been here for decades.

Lol that's naive. Wonder why he didn't announce all his Legislatives candidates yet? Wait for the "we're going to maje a deal with the PS" as soon as he makes it to second round.
It will be the same officials, as always, just with a different label.
 

Alx

Member
We'll need both of them at one point. Tax evasion represents 60 to 80 billions every year.
CAC40 dividends for last year : 55 billions.
On top of that 41 billions are distributed every year with the CICE and it clearly was not the solution either since unemployement grew up 30% in 5 years instead of the 1 million jobs promised.
The only one realistic solution there is is to take the money where it is.

Economy is much more complex than "take the money where it is". Money isn't a static pile of resources you dig through, it's a flow.
Also even if I can support taxing some incomes (especially on speculation), using tax evasion as an excuse isn't really sound since the higher the taxes, the more evasion there is.
Same thing for criticizing dividends : dividends aren't a bad thing per se, it's actually the normal way investment works : you invest money in a company so you can take a share of the benefits, ie dividends. That's how it should work, instead of buying shares to gamble on their value in the stock market.


Lol that's naive. Wonder why he didn't announce all his Legislatives candidates yet? Wait for the "we're going to maje a deal with the PS" as soon as he makes it to second round.
It will be the same officials, as always, just with a different label.

Why would he do that when he doesn't have to ? Why would he even make a deal with the PS when most of the PS already support him for free ?
If Macron reaches second round, he wouldn't need to make a deal with anybody anyway.
 

ElNarez

Banned
Economy is much more complex than "take the money where it is". Money isn't a static pile of resources you dig through, it's a flow.
Also even if I can support taxing some incomes (especially on speculation), using tax evasion as an excuse isn't really sound since the higher the taxes, the more evasion there is.

better not tax anybody ever, then

strange how the economy is too complex when it comes to taking money from big corporations, but simple enough to cut public services and welfare for the poorest
 

Sinsem

Member
Economy is much more complex than "take the money where it is".

Thank you, I didn't knew that. You just opened my eyes.

dividends aren't a bad thing per se

I never said they were. It's about proportion. If you're able to produce so much dividends, you can't complain over the high cost of labor.

That's how it should work, instead of buying shares to gamble on their value in the stock market.

So maybe we should start thinking about a way to avoid this gambling while avoiding hurting classic investments? Like, I don't know, with a tax?
 

Alx

Member
better not tax anybody ever, then

Not what I'm saying. But tax evasion isn't a problem you solve with more taxes, it's a problem you solve with more sanctions, against "evaders" and tax heavens.

I never said they were. It's about proportion. If you're able to produce so much dividends, you can't complain over the high cost of labor.

Why so ? Both are unrelated. Sure they make profit with the current cost of labor, but it doesn't mean things can't be better, or worse.
Besides, not all companies can be happy enough to be in the green/black. Also, not all companies are in the CAC40. Most aren't, actually. But they all face the same cost of labor.

So maybe we should start thinking about a way to avoid this gambling while avoiding hurting classic investments? Like, I don't know, with a tax?

Like I said I have nothing against taxing speculation. But dividends is another story, and it should actually be encouraged rather than sanctioned.
 

Fisico

Member
Why would he do that when he doesn't have to ? Why would he even make a deal with the PS when most of the PS already support him for free ?
If Macron reaches second round, he wouldn't need to make a deal with anybody anyway.

You are aware that winning presidential is not enough to govern and that you need to win the elections coming one month after?

If Macron doesn't strike a deal with the PS or at least with many current deputies from PS he will simply not have the legislative power to govern.

Oh yes he can use 49.3 and "ordonnance" and he probably will, but he will not be able to hold 5 years that way, the national assembly has the power to censor his government if needed.

Yep you're right. I don't find it that surprising either, just would have thought Mélenchon would be first.

You're all aware that this graphic only shows the 2nd choice for the 5% of Le Pen electors which aren't 100% sure that they will vote Le Pen right?
 

G.O.O.

Member
You are aware that winning presidential is not enough to govern and that you need to win the elections coming one month after?

If Macron doesn't strike a deal with the PS or at least with many current deputies from PS he will simply not have the legislative power to govern.
It's not like the PS was in any position of strength here.

Winning the presidency wouldn't give him the parliament, but that certainly would give him the upper ground in any local negociation. If the PS wants to play its cards, better do it before the first round. It's not like Hamon could save anyone's ass.
 

Dy_Cy

Member
Yeah, the ENA graduate who's been an adviser for Hollande and a minister in his government is the epitome of "anti-system".

If you really think that Macron is not the last desperate grasp of supporters of neoliberal policies that have failed everywhere every time they have been tried, you're a sucker. Macron now is almost guaranteeing Le Pen in five years.

Exactly this.
Even Hollande implied he was for Macron by criticizing Melenchon and saying he disagreed with the left primary elections results. When you have the current president mostly responsible for the recent "Fuck the system" sentiment supporting you, I'd say that's not really a good sign.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
At this point, Melenchon and Macron are both de facto PS candidates, though. Either of them would need the support of the PS in the legislature to govern, and that would temper both of what they can do. Melenchon is simply the left of the PS and Macron the right, openly competing instead of being forced into the same party.
 
I understand why Hamon wouldn't retire but it's really crazy how the four other big candidates are so close to one another in the polls. If Hamon wasn't a candidate the transfer of his 8-10% to the other candidates would decide the election.
 

Oreiller

Member
At this point, Melenchon and Macron are both de facto PS candidates, though. Either of them would need the support of the PS in the legislature to govern, and that would temper both of what they can do. Melenchon is simply the left of the PS and Macron the right, openly competing instead of being forced into the same party.

Yeah, that's a good summary of the situation. And, truth be told, it was a good strategy for both of them since the PS is a dysfunctional shitshow.
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
Sent my procuration a few minutes ago. A few more days to decide whether I tell my dad to go Macron or Hamon for me on Sunday...

If you have to send a procuration, please do it now, don't wait. Last time I did that, I waited around for too long and my procuration didn't get to my family quick enough.
 
One of my friends is planning to vote for Le Pen.

His mother is french, moved to Germany in her early 20s, he lived his entire life here and doesn't even consider himself as French (he always jokes about how french people are...supposedly... the most obnoxious in League of Legends right alongside Russians).

I was utterly dumbstruck, like... he is your nice, run of the mill friend who you're not particularly close to, but the few times we've talked about politics, he was rooting for the SPD (our central left party).

He couldn't even explain why when I confronted him with some of the shit that blond turd of a person did over the years and what her party stands for and doubled down on "the others are just as bad/ France won't leave the EU if she gets her referendum. I guess he swallowed russian propaganda hook line and sinker.

Just :(
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
One of my friends is planning to vote for Le Pen.

His mother is french, moved to Germany in her early 20s, he lived his entire life here and doesn't even consider himself as French (he always jokes about how french people are...supposedly... the most obnoxious in League of Legends right alongside Russians).

I was utterly dumbstruck, like... he is your nice, run of the mill friend who you're not particularly close to, but the few times we've talked about politics, he was rooting for the SPD (our central left party).

He couldn't even explain why when I confronted him with some of the shit that blond turd of a person did over the years and what her party stands for and doubled down on "the others are just as bad/ France won't leave the EU if she gets her referendum. I guess he swallowed russian propaganda hook line and sinker.

Just :(
Hint: most people who "can't" explain their support towards extreme politicians actually don't want to do it.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/853999377853042688

Seems like they're not using the same methods (the all thread there is really interesting).
I wish we had something like 538 in France, I really like their work overall.

You don't need one in France. Half of 538's value was in extrapolating win values give the state-by-state nature of the US presidential election. The French one is just simple popular vote winner. I could give you more or less the same level of analysis because there's just not as much to analyse. The rest of Nate's work is correcting for past polling errors and reweighting polls accordingly, which is essentially impossible for this election because it doesn't map at all well on to previous elections, and having a 'polls-plus' model incorporating distinct variables like the state of the economy, which in the US at least performed worse than the polls did.

If you want, I can give you win percentages based on current polling and building in some margin of systemic error based on past races, but given current polling the tl:dr of it is: any of those top four could make the second round.
 
Exactly this.
Even Hollande implied he was for Macron by criticizing Melenchon and saying he disagreed with the left primary elections results. When you have the current president mostly responsible for the recent "Fuck the system" sentiment supporting you, I'd say that's not really a good sign.

Macron is Hollande's young protégé. I would've thought he'd be supporting him?
 

Madouu

Member
Macron is Hollande's young protégé. I would've thought he'd be supporting him?

Yes, it is obvious that both share the same ideas in general. And in that, Hollande sees a bit of a redemption, he is by far the least popular French president in recent history and yet here are his ideas, polling in first place one week off the elections. It makes him think that the reason he is not popular is not because of his ideas but other contingent secondary reasons. And for a person like Hollande that is a big deal, he feels like he is right in what he was doing all along. It only makes sense that he supports Macron if you look at it purely from his individual perspective. Now there's a big caveat with this kind of reasoning: Hollande rose just the same in polls before becoming president and he was at a similar popularity before gradually falling down after he got to power, what happens if Macron does indeed get elected if the same pattern follows. I fear for Hollande's mental health. There is a parallel to be seen in the rise of Hollande as the anti sarkozy resentment grew in french society and the rise of Macron as the only realistic answer to Marine Le Pen too.

Now the reason he can not go all out and say clearly that he supports Macron is that he is still a member of the Parti Socialiste, and some would argue the most important member of them all. Openly supporting Macron who is running against his own party in the elections would pretty much be the final nail in the coffin of the PS... and of course looking at its popularity, it probably would not be a very smart thing to do anyway if he really wants Macron to win. It's not what Hollande would have liked though, his project was for the Parti Socialiste to embrace his ideals, he worked hard for it for years and it didn't work out, now it seems there will be a split between the right and the left of the party after these elections as their positions are just too far off each other for any sense of unity to be possible. This is also the reason he does not like Mélenchon, he sees him and his political wing as the main reason why his project did not succeed.
 

Simplet

Member
Am I crazy or is Fillon having a massive comeback? He seemed dead in the water just a month ago and now according to one poll he's just one point behind Macron or Le Pen?

I'm not even sure he gained all that much, it seems that Mélenchon just gained enough vote from Macron and Le Pen to put hi right back in it.
 
Am I crazy or is Fillon having a massive comeback? He seemed dead in the water just a month ago and now according to one poll he's just one point behind Macron or Le Pen?

I'm not even sure he gained all that much, it seems that Mélenchon just gained enough vote from Macron and Le Pen to put hi right back in it.
Old people vote and they are his first demographic
 
One of my friends is planning to vote for Le Pen.

His mother is french, moved to Germany in her early 20s, he lived his entire life here and doesn't even consider himself as French (he always jokes about how french people are...supposedly... the most obnoxious in League of Legends right alongside Russians).

I was utterly dumbstruck, like... he is your nice, run of the mill friend who you're not particularly close to, but the few times we've talked about politics, he was rooting for the SPD (our central left party).

He couldn't even explain why when I confronted him with some of the shit that blond turd of a person did over the years and what her party stands for and doubled down on "the others are just as bad/ France won't leave the EU if she gets her referendum. I guess he swallowed russian propaganda hook line and sinker.

Just :(
It's like that Turkish referendum yesterday, it's a bit infuriating to see people who have no effective stake in the election be able to vote. Even if in the grand scheme of things, your friend's vote doesn't matter all that much.

And yeah, I don't buy the "no reason", particularly when you live abroad. It's been derided a lot, but I can understand economic anxiety or safety concerns. I think they're utterly misguided and potentially ruinous, but I understand where these citizens are coming from. But someone living abroad, who somehow votes FN? Yeah, right.
 

Slaythe

Member
Am I crazy or is Fillon having a massive comeback? He seemed dead in the water just a month ago and now according to one poll he's just one point behind Macron or Le Pen?

I'm not even sure he gained all that much, it seems that Mélenchon just gained enough vote from Macron and Le Pen to put hi right back in it.

Fillon has literally been the same.

He is not moving.

It's the others that are getting lower. But Melanchon passed Fillon.
 

Simplet

Member
Fillon has literally been the same.

He is not moving.

It's the others that are getting lower. But Melanchon passed Fillon.

Fillon was around 17% at the beginning of April, now he's at 20% going on 21%, that's enough to be within reach of Macron and Le Pen. Three or four points can make a massive difference at this point in the race.

Mélenchon passed Fillon in one or two polls, in the latest polls they're about equal but Fillon is slowly trending upward: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l'élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017
 
It's like that Turkish referendum yesterday, it's a bit infuriating to see people who have no effective stake in the election be able to vote. Even if in the grand scheme of things, your friend's vote doesn't matter all that much.

And yeah, I don't buy the "no reason", particularly when you live abroad. It's been derided a lot, but I can understand economic anxiety or safety concerns. I think they're utterly misguided and potentially ruinous, but I understand where these citizens are coming from. But someone living abroad, who somehow votes FN? Yeah, right.

Out of curiousity though, would you say it's okay for me to vote in the next Swedish election, despite living in Bulgaria?

And for the record, the main reason I'm always voting, is so that the nationalist parties in Sweden gets less percentage.
 
Out of curiousity though, would you say it's okay for me to vote in the next Swedish election, despite living in Bulgaria?

And for the record, the main reason I'm always voting, is so that the nationalist parties in Sweden gets less percentage.
If you've never lived in Sweden and don't view yourself as Swedish, then yeah, I think you shouldn't vote.

Conversely, I believe foreign residents who have lived in a country long enough should be able to vote. I know this one is unpopular, though.
 
If you've never lived in Sweden and don't view yourself as Swedish, then yeah, I think you shouldn't vote.

Conversely, I believe foreign residents who have lived in a country long enough should be able to vote. I know this one is unpopular, though.

I lived in Sweden for 24 years, born in Sweden, swedish parents, blue eyed and blond.

Can I vote now?

For the record, I did vote the last time.
 
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