New poll.
https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/
Would be a pretty amazing result for the left.
Wow, MLP not making it into the second round would be glorious.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Wow, MLP not making it into the second round would be glorious.
And_Gignac
Member
Yaaaaaaaaaas King M.
The most important thing to consider atm is that Melenchon is running high on an upward momentum. Many people are for the first time cnsidering to vote for him. People may change their minds, but this is happening just one week before the election so that moment of recolection may not even come.
Melenchon is certainly doing what democrats didn't dare to do: To retool from the left the anger pushing the fascist. He is draining support from Le Pen.
The most important thing to consider atm is that Melenchon is running high on an upward momentum. Many people are for the first time cnsidering to vote for him. People may change their minds, but this is happening just one week before the election so that moment of recolection may not even come.
Melenchon is certainly doing what democrats didn't dare to do: To retool from the left the anger pushing the fascist. He is draining support from Le Pen.
whyamihere
Banned
Well, yes, sort of, but also, it seems like Dupont-Aignan has been rising a bit and sapping enough of her support to make a difference.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I can only imagine that MLP collapsing in the first round would probably accelerate her removal from FN leadership.
whyamihere
Banned
Which would be probably the best thing for the world because who else from the National Front could get as much support as her? The more internal rifts in that party, the better.
Still, the fact that she's so popular in the "enlightened European country" is disturbing. Especially because the Europeans always rag on us Americans for being savage and base, yet you have a literal Nazi on the cusp of winning the presidency.
I don't know much about French politics outside of Le Pen, but its good to see Jean-Luc Mélenchon doing well as he is probably who I would be closest to ideologically (socialist right?).
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
France has never been such a thing. Not in recent times anyway.
It's probably the most nationalist Western European country by far and it's been that way for a while. It's just very good at hiding it from strangers.
Marion Maréchal Lepen sounds like the most likely candidate for that right now.
Alx
Member
New poll.
https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/
Would be a pretty amazing result for the left.
Big difference with the one from Ifop I'm following, where Mélenchon is still tied with Fillon and a step behind the other two. Although Ifop has a small latency since it's a sliding window on the last three days (it's starting to show the small Macron bounce that appeared on other polls last week).
Anyway at this point I'll stop trusting polls too much, but crossing fingers that the current trend will push MLP out.
She has the name going for her, but she's a bit young and... not too smart. With her stronger opinions and lack of talent to hide them, she'll probably set back the FN closer to Jean-Marie era. Not that I would complain if it can decrease its influence, but I'm not sure other leaders of FN will let her.
If he manages to beat MLP to the second round I'm all for it. Still, he shouldn't be president.
whyamihere
Banned
But Marion is far more "traditionally" right than Marine, right? Kind of neuters the National Front appeal of, I like left wing economics and abortion is cool but I hate brown people. She's also not nearly as talented as Marine is (and this is someone who detests Marine, but Marine has natural political chops that Marion lacks)
Shhhh! Why spoil it
Now that AfD is flailing a nice crushing defeat for the FN would be a beautiful start to the year.
Her losing by 20%+ in the second round may have resulted in the FN sharpening their knives against her, but losing in the first round probably gets her kicked out of the leadership post earlier.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I can already hear France's (and Europe's) alt-right ripping a hole in their diapers if Marion gets through.
Young, pretty, blonde and outright caustic. The perfect spokeswoman for the reactionary youth.
Young, pretty, blonde and outright caustic. The perfect spokeswoman for the reactionary youth.
MistakenMobius
Member
It's much more complicated than that: FN is historically host to old nazi fart and catholic crazies.
MLP tried to get rid of that bagage : her number 2 is openly gay and she present herself as much more laïc than the party use to. Marion Marechal being the caution to keep the old schools fafs inside the party.
She is trying to pull a Fortuyin which is probably doomed to fail because the name has far too many connotations in France and clearly if she is succeeded by MMLP. The party will drop back to the fringe radical it used be.
Alx
Member
Ok I don't know who's designing Poutou's videos, but he's really good. Just watched the latest one on TV, with "le temps des cerises" as background music. Very creative and effective, and not as boring/conventional than the other candidates.
(I'll just add that I'm definitely not voting Poutou, but I have a lot of respect for his communication, it's been on point)
(I'll just add that I'm definitely not voting Poutou, but I have a lot of respect for his communication, it's been on point)
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, that's sort of what I'd expect if Marine loses in the first round and it ousted and Marion takes over.
Nah. Unless things have massively changed in the past 2 years, far right seem to always be stuck in the mid 20's % wise (which admitedly is already too high anyway). I'd agree that France is more nationalist overall than it would like to admit, but it got imo nothing on Austria, and is about on par with many Northern European countries, including Netherlands and Sueden.
Heck, didn't the AfG in Germany score 25% a year ago?
timetokill
Banned
This was great, loved the bit at the end especially
Also eye-opening regarding France's love of food-based attacks on politicians
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
You know what? I'd like to recant that. Austria takes the cake. That whole "we were an occupied country, not real nazis we swear" thing fucked up the nation's moral compass way more than De Gaulle's mythology. Germany learned its lessons the hard way. Austria never bothered picking up the book in comparison.
Do many countries learn, though? I've wasted too many days discussing my own country's actions in the Congo with my family and it goes straight to shitty "Well, the British did worse in their empire!" whataboutism. I can really only think of Germany as a good example.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
I wanted to vote for Macron but some of my friends are like, "Macron winning now means the FN wins 5 years from now", which is scary :/
This is the first election where I'm going to hesitate until the very last second inside the voting booth...
This is the first election where I'm going to hesitate until the very last second inside the voting booth...
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I tried looking around for some hypothetical Macron-Melenchon second round polling but couldn't find any. Could someone point me in the right direction?
It's too bad Melenchon ended up being the left candidate over Hamon though :/ I understand the opposition to the EU from the left but I'd much rather have candidates who would preserve and reform the major international institutions because they're key to the postwar peace.
It's too bad Melenchon ended up being the left candidate over Hamon though :/ I understand the opposition to the EU from the left but I'd much rather have candidates who would preserve and reform the major international institutions because they're key to the postwar peace.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Thanks! Looks like if Macron makes it to the second round he clinches it against everyone, unless something changes here soon.
It's likely the FN shrinks back into irrelevancy 5 years from now. If Le Pen is struggling now to even be leading in the first round this year it's likely when better and less extreme candidates pop up five years from now that her thunder will be stolen from her.
I've heard the same argument from some people, with some even going as far as using hashtags like #ToutSaufMacron, which seems insane to me. Not because there is no truth to the argument but because of these few counterpoints:
- Fillon would lead to a potential MLP win in 5 years just as much, if not more so, than Macron
- There's no guarantee that the other possible winner, Mélenchon, won't foster the rise of the FN in five years. He won't magically shatter the FN by himself
- the only way I can see the FN being completely destroyed is if she doesn't even make it to the second round. Or if Hamon wins maybe, but unless the polls are completely wrong by a huge margin, I don't see that happening.
- If I have to choose between Le Pen in 5 years and Le Pen now, I'll take Le Pen in 5 years. Now is exactly the wrong moment to second guess and risk letting her win. We'll see what the world and Europe look like 5 years from now, but today, we just took a 3-hit combo of Trump + Brexit + Erdogan, and I won't let Le Pen land the coup de grâce To Europe as we know it.
- Speaking of the EU, Macron is the most pro-EU of the 4 leading candidates.
I'm not trying to tell you Macron is the best. He's playing it safe, and I doubt he'll have a wonderful presidency if he wins... But I'll take "safe" right now. I don't want to see France and the EU go down the shitter. And I don't want us to become Putin and Trump's European dog.
That #ToutSaufMacron shit needs to stop. People are picking the wrong fight. It's definitely #ToutSaufMLP and #ToutSaufLeFrexit.
Out of curiosity, who will you vote for if you don't vote for Macron? Personally, Hamon is the only one I'm not completely disgusted by or wary of. I'm still debating between him and Macron, even as I'm arguing for the latter in this very post
.Also, this.
It's hard enough to know who to vote for to prevent Le Pen from winning right now, let alone in 5 years.
Think about what happened over the last few months, and react accordingly.
A lot of people think the FN will comtinue to rise under a fillon or macron presidency. From what we know from past french election is that the instant the spotlight was shined on the FN in an election they shrunk back into irrelevancy in the next election.
When communication trumps content (I'm obviously not talking about you, but that's a thing now), you know you're in deep shit. They're almost all equally awful at this, though (or great, in a wicked sense) T_T
We'll deal with that in 2022... but that's something I've heard at each election, so...
If only... The only thing that could bring populists to irrelevance would be an improvement in economic and social situation, both locally and in the world (so that immigration isn't a central issue). Not going to happen soon, I'd say. But they may not stay unite, that would make things better.
To think that FN was just, at the beginning, a manipulation from PS (democratic right)... It still kinda works, but I don't believe the ends warrants the risks.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Out of curiosity, who will you vote for if you don't vote for Macron? Personally, Hamon is the only one I'm not completely disgusted by or wary of. I'm still debating between him and Macron, even as I'm arguing for the latter in this very post
Mélenchon. He seems more knowledgeable than Macron and I don't buy the attacks and counterarguments from his opponents.
I actually voted for Mélenchon in 2012 in the first round (to be honest, it was partly because I was sure that Hollande was going to make it to the second round anyway...).
Empyrean Heaven
Member
If he manages to beat MLP to the second round I'm all for it. Still, he shouldn't be president.
Bingo. Never underestimate the power of a young, hot successor. Just look at everyone clamoring for Ivanka to run.
You won't succeed at fighthing the FN indefinitely if you only act every five years.
If unemployement goes up, people will turn to the FN.
If there is a new terrorist attack, people will turn to the FN.
etc, etc...
I find funny that people only wake up during electoral period and rediscover that the FN is huge. Le Pen might not make it to the second round this year, but she'll probably improve on her 2012 score, and that's no good news.
You're lucky this time that a lot of angry people are turning to the left. Like it or not, Mélenchon is the best person to fight the FN right now. Because that's the only antiliberal alternative they have. Yeah, some of the FN voters are racists, but a lot of them are just angry against "the system".
So you can put as many Macron ballots in the box as you want, that's not going to stop the FN.
The fucking governement acting for its citizens might, but we're not going to get that by voting "safe".
If unemployement goes up, people will turn to the FN.
If there is a new terrorist attack, people will turn to the FN.
etc, etc...
I find funny that people only wake up during electoral period and rediscover that the FN is huge. Le Pen might not make it to the second round this year, but she'll probably improve on her 2012 score, and that's no good news.
You're lucky this time that a lot of angry people are turning to the left. Like it or not, Mélenchon is the best person to fight the FN right now. Because that's the only antiliberal alternative they have. Yeah, some of the FN voters are racists, but a lot of them are just angry against "the system".
So you can put as many Macron ballots in the box as you want, that's not going to stop the FN.
The fucking governement acting for its citizens might, but we're not going to get that by voting "safe".
I doubt Marion Maréchal would get anywhere near the support MLP has. She's even more batshit crazy extremist than her aunt and she doesn't hide it as well.
Alx
Member
People keep saying that, but we did get several terrorist attacks, and it didn't change much in the political trends.
http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/2908-1-study_file.pdf
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Maréchal is 27, this seems way too young to lead the party even in 5 years. I guess it's possible, but I can see Philippot fighting tooth and nail to take leadership. Or Collard? Dupont-Aignan could also try knocking their door too lol.
@Sinsem: Right, and I don't see things miraculously improve over the next 5 years enough that people will just forget about the FN no matter who wins.
My concern is twofold:
- Timing: again, pushing back against the FN is crucial now, right after Trump/Brexit/Erdogan; one country fucking up is a blow the international community can weather. But 4 fuck-ups in a row? It'll hurt big time.
- Fear of voter laziness/overconfidence: we all know abstention benefits Le Pen, and as seen in that Jamie Oliver video, our 'pundits' are all too happy to proclaim Le Pen incapable of winning, which will only encourage people not to vote, and lead to her victory. So even if Macron will be Macron and he'll be far from perfect, he's the most popular candidate it seems. Even if people abstain in the second round, that simple fact might be enough to compensate for a high abstention rate in favor of MLP.
If I had been a US voter, I would have abstained/voted 'blank' just because I hated both candidates, and I would have deeply regretted it. The US election taught me a great lesson: it made me realize that, sometimes, yes, we really do have to vote against the worst choice rather than for whoever we think is best/least bad.
My concern is twofold:
- Timing: again, pushing back against the FN is crucial now, right after Trump/Brexit/Erdogan; one country fucking up is a blow the international community can weather. But 4 fuck-ups in a row? It'll hurt big time.
- Fear of voter laziness/overconfidence: we all know abstention benefits Le Pen, and as seen in that Jamie Oliver video, our 'pundits' are all too happy to proclaim Le Pen incapable of winning, which will only encourage people not to vote, and lead to her victory. So even if Macron will be Macron and he'll be far from perfect, he's the most popular candidate it seems. Even if people abstain in the second round, that simple fact might be enough to compensate for a high abstention rate in favor of MLP.
If I had been a US voter, I would have abstained/voted 'blank' just because I hated both candidates, and I would have deeply regretted it. The US election taught me a great lesson: it made me realize that, sometimes, yes, we really do have to vote against the worst choice rather than for whoever we think is best/least bad.
It builds up. Of course you don't see immediate effects, but when the time comes to vote, people think about it.
I painfully watched people (not my closest friends, but people around me that I see sometimes almost every day) slowly turn to the FN during this presidency and it's not people waking up one morning saying "Vive Le Pen". It's more insidious than that.
I'm pondering voting for Mélenchon in order to get a Macron vs JLM 2nd round.
As long as MLP doesn't make it, I'll be happy with the outcome.
Ideally I would have liked for Hamon to go through, as he's my favorite candidate, but he seems way too far back to make it, so I don't want my vote to count for nothing in the fight against the FN.
As long as MLP doesn't make it, I'll be happy with the outcome.
Ideally I would have liked for Hamon to go through, as he's my favorite candidate, but he seems way too far back to make it, so I don't want my vote to count for nothing in the fight against the FN.
Palette Swap
Member
The thing is, if MLP somehow fails in the first round and is delegitimized as a leader, Philippot will follow her, they'll have his head too. That would be kind of crazy, because honestly, shifting from an ultra-conservative speech to populist souverainisme is the reason they're so high in the first place.
Marion seems way too conservative to reach the same kind of audience Marine did. There's room in the political spectrum for her brand of hardcore religious conservatism, but I don't know that it would be as competitive as the current FN formula.
Then again, these are two big ifs (her losing early and being ousted).
The question is do they have anyone to replace her if this scenario happens?
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, I'm kind of bummed about this too.
Tribes of Trusty
Member
I'm fucked, I do not know who I'm going to vote for this week, like at all -_-
I know who I'm not gonna vote for though
He would definitely do a referendum but as he said, if the exit were to pass he would consider his presidency a failure. Contrary to what people think he's not anti-EU, he just really wants it to be better.
Palette Swap
Member
Seeing Fillon's meeting (very briefly) interrupted by someone yelling "rends l'argent" reminded me that I have yet to see a Fillon campaigner in the street. If they can't campaign because their candidate is tainted, I can't imagine how the same guy could govern. Nevermind that his platform is really disruptive on a French scale. You'd need a very clear and unquestionable mandate to lead his set of policies and reforms. I simply don't see that happening. Regardless of how much you agree/disagree with them, his proposals make the CPE or the Loi Travail look benign. Considering how they were met, well...
I guess there's another scenario, which would be a huge upheaval, where the conservative part of the FN and the hard right part of LR find common ground. This sounds unlikely because that would pretty much means the mainstream right wing party would explode, but there are porous zones between the two parties. In that regard, MLP's strength is also her weakness: her populist tone on the economy where she promises dropping the euro, redistribution à la carte and more public services is a red line to many conservative voters, but if this part was dropped, the same people could very well tolerate the FN's immigration policies.
That's my point, they don't really, which is why I don't see it happening. Marion seems to be the most recognizable face / well liked character, but she's too young and too conservative.
I guess there's another scenario, which would be a huge upheaval, where the conservative part of the FN and the hard right part of LR find common ground. This sounds unlikely because that would pretty much means the mainstream right wing party would explode, but there are porous zones between the two parties. In that regard, MLP's strength is also her weakness: her populist tone on the economy where she promises dropping the euro, redistribution à la carte and more public services is a red line to many conservative voters, but if this part was dropped, the same people could very well tolerate the FN's immigration policies.
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