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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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That would be a huge relief for me.
The austria and netherland elections have shown us that the safe option can still win.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
It's why the solution was to form a new entity, including all the left.
I think a good model for France would be the Uruguayan model of "Frente Amplio" (Large Front). All the leftists party united under one umbrella, with internal election (and open to all) every 4 years who will decide the weight of every tendency in the party.
Lord Frieza
Member
Austria and Dutch elections have already broken the streak
You either find a candidate who fill your shoes or you cast a blank vote
Palette Swap
Member
Haha, I just caught up on this Fillon quote from a few days ago, about Macron's age: "it would be complicated in an aging society to have parts of the population not properly represented".
Said every young person ever, you geriatric ass licker.
Between this and his sexist comment on Salamé's maternity leave, he's on a roll.
Said every young person ever, you geriatric ass licker.
Between this and his sexist comment on Salamé's maternity leave, he's on a roll.
this
It's a recipe for a bloodbath at this point
we're currently having shit like this on twitter. Defending freedom is now a right-wing value according to some.
I think the differences in the French left are irreconcilable. Hamon's politics most closely resemble my own but I would never vote for Mélenchon. I am capable of compromise (I want Macron to win) but those on the left who seek to dismantle the EU and cosy up to Russia are not my people and I wouldn't want to share a tent with them.
Lord Frieza
Member
Yeah, but we were talking about specific politicans winning in the face of media 'fear' they would as a sort of self-fulfilling thing. I realize it's more nuanced than that overall
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
Not voting tomorrow.
Still hoping to see Fillon in the second round, just for hilarity's sake
Still hoping to see Fillon in the second round, just for hilarity's sake
I'd say there's nothing to be proud of but considering your likely political views frankly I'd rather you say home too.Not voting tomorrow.
Still hoping to see Fillon in the second round, just for hilarity's sake
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
It's true but it's also true for uruguayan Frente Amplio, you have the Communist Party (not like the french communist party, way more radical) alongside with very blend social-democratic party and even a lot of ex from the "white party" which are centrist/right.
It's somewhat working because of the democratic structure of the party and it's governing Uruguay for more than 10 year now, eliminating extreme poverty and having one of the most progressive policy of the region.
But you're right that Hamon and Mélenchon view of international affair are not conciliable. Mélenchon is very extreme.
I kinda refuse to let polls dictate who I'm supposed to vote for.
Hamon is the most coherent program for me, maybe a bit too optimistic and against what the right wants, but fuck, I'd rather have hope than zero ambition, empty promises or austerity.
His values speak to me, so I'll support him.
Hamon is the most coherent program for me, maybe a bit too optimistic and against what the right wants, but fuck, I'd rather have hope than zero ambition, empty promises or austerity.
His values speak to me, so I'll support him.
If the austerity will continue in France there will be a civil war or something like that. It's just not sustainable .
What kind of deficit is allowed in France? In Italy we are around 2.5%.
Not voting tomorrow.
Still hoping to see Fillon in the second round, just for hilarity's sake
Yeah, wouldn't that be hilarious.
Trying my best not to insult you.
Alx
Member
Come on, I don't even know if austerity is bad or not, but people are hardly starving in the streets in France right now...
If 3% deficit is causing a civil war i wouldn't want to see what happens if france had greek austerity
Also according to the EU stability pact Italy is allowed a 3% deficit aswell. Even if it is not sustainable
If 3% deficit is causing a civil war i wouldn't want to see what happens if france had greek austerity
Also according to the EU stability pact Italy is allowed a 3% deficit aswell. Even if it is not sustainable
It's actually lower than 3% for us. We are in a even worse situation. Austerity is just a huge clusterfuck.
Systolique
Member
I'm voting Hamon, but I'm hoping for a Macron - Mélenchon second round.
Le Pen and Fillon getting out at the first stage would be the downfall of both Marine and Les Républicains, and a strong show of dignity in our country
Le Pen and Fillon getting out at the first stage would be the downfall of both Marine and Les Républicains, and a strong show of dignity in our country
I know this is not quite popular since Gaf is very left leaning but austerity is not necessarily a bad thing.
What's bad is austerity without an additional growth package. Italy (and to a lesser degree France) need additional reforms to get back to being competitive and that doesn't happen unless you slim out the state and make it more efficient.
Others are gonna get much much more than 3%, even Dupont-Aignant alone will have more.
Since prediction is more about what you expect based on reasoning rather than what you hope for
Macron 19.5-23%
Will have what the polls predicted or less, the vote utile doesn't work as well for him for the leftist with Melenchon being up there, everything he could have taken from the center left or right has been taken into account.
Being a new thing there's an unknown surrounding him but now everyone noticed how the media pushed hard for him so he will not overperform.
Fillon 18.5-20%
He's the easier to predict from the top 4, he will perform according to the polls, he mostly failed to bring back the electors he lost for Dupont-Aignant and Macron, his core electorship is rather stable though so he will not underperform
Le Pen 20.5-23%
Is a lock above 20%
Overperformance comparing to the polls is unlikely after what happened the previous times, her core electorship is stable too but as always with elections the more it lasts the more FN loses traction because many notice (helped by every other candidates) how unappealing their program is on some key points.
Melenchon 17.5-21.5%
Is the harder to predict because of how much he gained in the polls since early March, he has momentum that's for sure, and it's also à lock that between him and Hamon there should be a total of 25-30% of the leftist electors.
However Hamon fought hard until the end so he should still keep electors from going to Melenchon.
He has vote utile going for him like Macron, Poutou's stance on weapons for cops might also give him the extra 0.1 0.2% that might makes (or not) a difference in the end.
Hamon 7.5-10%
The lower Hamon is the higher Melenchon (and Macron but with smaller impact) will be.
I don't have much to add besides what was said above for Melenchon. Hamon is hard to predict but for the exact opposite reasons.
Dupont-Aignant 3-4%
Poutou 1-2%
Asselineau-Lassale 1%
Arthaud-Cheminade <1%
It's not really just about polls.
Basically because Mélenchon and Hamon are the only two candidates that have almost the very same platform and ideology and could work together in a government. It's the first time that the candidate of the center-left party and the candidate of the radical left party agree on most of the topics and have the same priorities.
In 2012 Mélenchon and Hollande did not support the same platform at all and Mélenchon wasn't supposed to be in the same political majority as Hollande (and he never was). The useful vote for Hollande in the first round did not make any sense platform-wise : in 2017 it makes sense because there are large différences between Hamon/Mélenchon and Macron, Fillon and Le Pen, while Hamon and Mélenchon are not that different.
There's an historical chance to see a radical progressist alternative to take place given how a few hundred of thousands voters will likely decide who'll get to the second round. You can still vote Hamon for his values, ideas, because you like the PS or how he became a cute meme, and shouldn't be cursed for that, but don't take it lightly.
One day neoliberalism advocates like you will realise that your ideas have hegemonic since the mid 1980s and never worked. The ECB and the European Commission have the same wording as you, and most governments still use it (including France).
I honestly don't think the problem is austerity or keynesianism or whatever. I'm more concerned with the way politicians are handling budget in general, period. France's debt is so ridiculously big, one of the largest areas of spending in France's budget every year is paying back interests. Not paying back the debt, just the interests. Over 41 billion in 2017, 4rth largest area of spending, ahead of defense for example. And it's only going to get worse, as France is operating at a deficit. We keep borrowing, while we have no chance to be able to pay the money back in a reasonable amount of time. The debt is at about 2300B. If we had no interest to pay back, had no deficit, and used what money we're paying this year to pay back capital every year, it would take 2300/42=55 years.
Saving a little money here and there is not gonna solve the debt problem. Not in this century anyways. Spending a little more is not going to make things much worse than they already are. I could see unreasonable spending raising interest rates and making things spiral out of control. But, reality of it is, there needs to be some fundamental change to the way economy is structured if the problem is going to be actually addressed. Fillon's version of austerity for example is not gonna solve the problem. Not saying I have answers. But I'm not seeing any credible ones proposed by the candidates either.
Saving a little money here and there is not gonna solve the debt problem. Not in this century anyways. Spending a little more is not going to make things much worse than they already are. I could see unreasonable spending raising interest rates and making things spiral out of control. But, reality of it is, there needs to be some fundamental change to the way economy is structured if the problem is going to be actually addressed. Fillon's version of austerity for example is not gonna solve the problem. Not saying I have answers. But I'm not seeing any credible ones proposed by the candidates either.
Systolique
Member
Austerity never worked, and it never will, Europe is the best counter-argument to your post
And yet there is has been incredible economic growth since the 1980s.
Funny enough europe shows both sides of the austerity argument.
Germany made deep cuts in it's social net and tough reforms on their labour market in the early 2000s and look where they are now.
Austerity imposed on countries like Greece for example is the bad side of the argument since the measures are almost pure about lowering debt instead of getting the state to run more efficiently and promoting growth.
As i said the sweetspot is probably somewhere inbetween but we can't continue spending money we don't have at this rate or one day the economy will be unable to pay interest.
The nature of the capitalist system guarantees that you'll always have poor people.
"it's complicated"
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/b...ue-la-france-comme-laffirme-hamon-2070355.php
on another subject
https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/855783703628455936
Frankfurter
Member
That's a bit too simplified. It's not like other countries that didn't have that kind of "austerity" have less poor people.
I'm struggling to use the word austerity for Germany, though. Cuts were relatively modest overall.
Is it? Mélenchon isn't opposed at all to leave the EU (and completely break it up in the wake) if it doesn't work for him. But that's alright if France and the US get potentially great along?
It's a really sad state that every couple of years we now have to fear the EU might completely crumble once a new leader is elected in a EU country. That's not a state in which the EU is likely to progress further.
Ether_Snake
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Germany benefited from having poorer countries become less competitive as they adopted the Euro. Germany can do "austerity" if it then gets a big advantage from the Euro currency, which reduced the cost of their currency and increased the cost of their competitors'. Your comparison is a false equivalence.
More efficient means nothing if efficiency destroys public service. My wife works in the hospital here in Nancy. Her work conditions are insane. Furthermore, stability pact (austerity) is there to restrict inflation but inflation is something natural and only bad for people not investing money. Sorry i don't like to talk about economics in english, i don't know the good terms. Fighting inflation has no sense for the people.
Frankfurter
Member
You'd need to take into account how both countries define poverty, though. Plus what kind of actual purchasing power said amount grants you.
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
And what would those political views be, according to you?
Try to guess which party I voted for in previous elections (2007, 2012 + municipal in 2008 and 2014).
And_Gignac
Member
I think Macron will underperform, like most liberal-centrists have done recently.
Fillion may overperform too.
I have this haunting fear that we will get Fillion vs Le Pen. Hope I am wrong.
Fillion may overperform too.
I have this haunting fear that we will get Fillion vs Le Pen. Hope I am wrong.
Lord Frieza
Member
In reference to whom?
I don't care who you voted for in previous elections but I can guess who you'd vote for now :And what would those political views be, according to you?
Try to guess which party I voted for in previous elections (2007, 2012 + municipal in 2008 and 2014).
Your posts here and all over OT paint a pretty clear picture.
Definitions are consistent, as mentioned at the link provided. Germany has a greater poverty rate than France, or had, in 2013.
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