Debt is a natural component of capitalism, it is normally counterbalanced by inflation. No country ever payed his debt.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
- Start date
- Status
Debt is a natural component of capitalism, it is normally counterbalanced by inflation. No country ever payed his debt.
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
I'd vote "blanc" if it had any real meaning.
Glad you can assume a lot of things based on my other posts in the OT
And_Gignac
Member
Macron has always gave me Albert Rivera (from Spain´s Ciudananos) vibes. He himself, his campaign and the people that support him.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Macron to me is exactly the kind of candidate an "anti-establishment" candidate would want to run against. France will be lucky if he wins, but it will likely just push the problem to later.
As the French keep trying to avoid electing the FN, they have been normalizing the FN's rhetoric little by little, and are now voting right even when voting left, so it's a slow drift ever further right. At some point that boils over, those who are sick of it and want to vote left decide to vote for the far left as a last stand, and either this hail Mary passes, or gives an opening for the FN to win. That's either now, or in a few years.
As the French keep trying to avoid electing the FN, they have been normalizing the FN's rhetoric little by little, and are now voting right even when voting left, so it's a slow drift ever further right. At some point that boils over, those who are sick of it and want to vote left decide to vote for the far left as a last stand, and either this hail Mary passes, or gives an opening for the FN to win. That's either now, or in a few years.
https://twitter.com/FranZeller/status/855786468962381824
Huge line in Montreal. Some people talk about 3 hours of waiting time.
Huge line in Montreal. Some people talk about 3 hours of waiting time.
Palette Swap
Member
Taking a step back, the ubiquitous "awful campaign" narrative seems overblown. We used to complain that these campaigns were between parties that were too much alike and that France was a political duopoly. If anything, the playing field got a lot larger, and some issues like the EU or the environment (at least on the left) were discussed a lot more than I expected. Their depth wasn't always satisfying, but I expected them to be drowned by borders and Islam discussion. And yeah, too much time was spent on Fillon's scandals, but it's not like he managed that well or this is less of public interest than say pork in school food.
I'm not saying it was a great campaign, just that if it was terrible, then so were a lot of others. At least, there was more pluralism than I can remember in my life time.
What's more worrying right now is how anyone will govern, compromise and build bridges a month from now.
I'm not saying it was a great campaign, just that if it was terrible, then so were a lot of others. At least, there was more pluralism than I can remember in my life time.
What's more worrying right now is how anyone will govern, compromise and build bridges a month from now.
I don't know whether it is a natural part of capitalism or not, but France's debt is anything but healthy. 40B/year on interests alone is far from trivial. Some countries have paid back large amounts of their debt, 19th century England springs to mind as a typical example.
Inflation has indeed often been used to control debt. A whole bunch of European countries would love some solid inflation right now. Countries in the euro zone have no direct control over their currency however. Which is one of the main arguments of le pen in getting out of the EU. Getting control back over the currency to help deal with the debt. Right now inflation is not an option for france.
Alx
Member
Nah, it's quite apparent that the FN changed its rhetoric little by little, to make it more normalized, not the other way around. Most of her new voters are there because "she's not like her father" and "it's not the FN of old". And the moment she gives a hint of the older themes of Jean-Marie (cf Vélodrome, even if it was actually a completely different stance from the "détail"), then the outrage starts again.
Systolique
Member
This post is absolutely not relevant on so many levels.
First, you're making a post-election analysis before first round is even done and out, we don't know if Le Pen will go to the second round and if so, what score will she have there.
Second, FN's rhetoric isn't more "normalized" now more than it was 30 years ago.
It is not a slow drift to the right when candidates coming from the left have never been so high ; before Hollande came Chirac (twice) and Sarkozy, and right now Fillon isn't even able to oppose the previous government as he should have done.
It's not a question of time either, when she loses this election she's gonna start being the same clown her father was, fully aware she will never be able to win.
I agree with some of ether_snake's points, significant portions of the FN's program, preoccupations and even tone have been aped by the the right, starting with sarkozy. The right wing's political landscape has shifted further to the right. The emulation has given legitimacy to the original. Le pen's play has been to pose as the alternative. If we get another 5 years like the last 15, any alternative is gonna look good. I'm hoping whoever gets elected turns things around (not gonna happen), or that someone else provides a more credible alternative (better than le pen shouldn't be that hard... but I personally have zero faith in mélenchon, and obivously, voters have zero faith in hamon).
Gurgelhals
Member
So what's the schedule tomorrow? When can we expect the first exit polls, results, etc.?
Systolique
Member
Yes, and they lost with Sarkozy in 2012 doing that, and are looking to lose again with a Fillon being even further on the right side.
I don't think you can get very much further to the right than that, and if LR looses again it'll just show them this isn't working.
Systolique
Member
Alx
Member
Exit polls at 20:00 Paris time (UTC+2). Official results during the night, but they usually match the exit polls, unless they're really close (which may be the case this time). No information before that, except for estimations of participation (around 12:00 and 17:00 IIRC).
Gurgelhals
Member
Mass_Pincup
Banned
I'm so pissed that I can't vote for the first turn, leaving abroad I thought that I would go back in time to vote but I miss it by a week.
Thankfully I'll be there fir the second, I just have to hope that Fillon vs Le Pen isn't happening by then.
Thankfully I'll be there fir the second, I just have to hope that Fillon vs Le Pen isn't happening by then.
Palette Swap
Member
The thing is, they didn't learn that lesson the last time. Instead, they stranded further to the right and were an utterly embarrassing opposition, whose hysteria and radicalization wasn't too visible because everyone was focused on our dysfunctional government.
Honestly, their economic policies are the only thing separating the rightmost parts of LR and FN.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Doesn't that basically make your entire point moot?
Control of your own currency is way more than that. First of all France would be more competitive in the global market ( price of their products will be lower ) , the debt would be guaranteed by your own central bank and not an indipendent one , they will be able to do different economy policies than austerity ( which would create inflation ). Of course it's not an easy solution and everything won't be perfect the next day. I don't even know what Le Pen is going to do after an eventual francexit. This is extremely important. Just going back to a different currency than euro is not enough.
I thought she wanted to bring the Franc back alongside the Euro and then denominate all debt in Francs or something like that
I don't even know why everyone is so focused on the public debt and there is a lot of misinformation about it. I don't know if the biggest lie is that you can reduce it through austerity when you are in a difficult economic situation or that it was the cause of the crysis.
wow that was darker than I expected
Well it was to a part.
People borrowed cheap money they got from having the same currency as germany. This led to housing boubles that went up and countries had to bailout their banks and were unable to refinance the debt they've made because of it.
In short, debt levels have risen too fast (something like 20% in 2 years on EU average) and countries weren't able to pay them off anymore.
There's a first round tomorrow. If none of the eleven candidates win more than 50% of the votes, it goes to a run-off in two weeks between the top two contenders.
I don't know why people are taking social media projections as polls now? Polls are banned now in france until sunday at 8pm local time there.
Edit: I hearing now that fillon is getting a last minute boost. I hope this is not true because I don't want a corrupt vs corrupt matchup in the second round.I don't want a repeat of the trump vs hilary matchup.
Edit: I hearing now that fillon is getting a last minute boost. I hope this is not true because I don't want a corrupt vs corrupt matchup in the second round.I don't want a repeat of the trump vs hilary matchup.
I voted today here in Montreal. Massive queue but very friendly atmosphere. People were cracking jokes about how our country was fucked and how much of a shitshow this whole presidential campaign has been. I had to wait for 2 hours but I feel lucky because a friend spent 4 hours standing in line.
I voted for Macron even though I don't like the guy and his neoliberal policies but I felt like I had no choice. I don't want to see a match up between Fillon and LePen in the 2nd round. Talked to a few people who had the same mindset. It was mostly a tossup between Melenchon and Macron with the occasional vote for Fillon. Only met a bakery owner and his wife who were voting for LePen because they used to live in la banlieue and saw their childhood neighbourhood turn into an dangerous shithole. Also the usual radical islam/terrorism thing.
Anyway. I almost fet like not voting today because I honestly don't even care anymore about the outcome. I think I'm pretty much done caring. Just hope LePen doesn't win even though the moderate right and left really need to wake the fuck up.
I voted for Macron even though I don't like the guy and his neoliberal policies but I felt like I had no choice. I don't want to see a match up between Fillon and LePen in the 2nd round. Talked to a few people who had the same mindset. It was mostly a tossup between Melenchon and Macron with the occasional vote for Fillon. Only met a bakery owner and his wife who were voting for LePen because they used to live in la banlieue and saw their childhood neighbourhood turn into an dangerous shithole. Also the usual radical islam/terrorism thing.
Anyway. I almost fet like not voting today because I honestly don't even care anymore about the outcome. I think I'm pretty much done caring. Just hope LePen doesn't win even though the moderate right and left really need to wake the fuck up.
the filteris thing ? It's basically worthless but the Fillon hardcore supporters trust it more than actual polls
Yeah I'm talking about filteris. The biggest reason fillon has been getting more attention on social media is because of how crazy his campaign is.
les décodeurs wrote a paper about it
http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs...endre-avec-des-pincettes_5105106_4355770.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs...endre-avec-des-pincettes_5105106_4355770.html
I understand that feel, know a lot of people who thinks the same way and sometimes have thoughts like that that cross my mind
But in the end I always remind myself that I just shouldn't, pray for the next election to be better but I feel like it will be decades before it really will if it ever happen
No love for Hamon btw, maybe the universal revenue is even more seen as delusional there?
I understand that feel, know a lot of people who thinks the same way and sometimes have thoughts like that that cross my mind
But in the end I always remind myself that I just shouldn't, pray for the next election to be better but I feel like it will be decades before it really will if it ever happen
No love for Hamon btw, maybe the universal revenue is even more seen as delusional there?
Only met two 19yo female students who were voting for Hamon out of maybe 30-35 people that talked to while waiting in line.Honestly I didn't even think about the guy and no one seemed to care about him.
Sad but true.
result is in less than 24h
20h00 start getting result ( and probably close to accurate, but since we have 4 candidates pretty close in polls hard to say )
20h30 should be final
CEST timezone
Garrett Hawke
Member
what result tomorrow is good news if you value the eu and other things that aren't putin?
Gurgelhals
Member
Macron reaching the second round.
Fillon vs. Le Pen would be the darkest timeline.
Like others said macron reaching the second round.
eh
id debat le pen vs melenchon would be the darkest timeline
Fillon would just be a shitty continuity of what is going on
having two anti globalism candidates in 2nd just sounds like a terrible thing.
Atleast one of them isn't from a party of racism
just my opinion /shrug
Garrett Hawke
Member
I actually re-read the pamphlet thisq afternoon to look into that.
Of the 11 candidates, only 5 don't promise to completely change the EU (with no promise of what will be left) or downright abandon it: Poutou, Arthaud, Hammon, Fillon and Macron.
Only the last two have a realistic chance to get to the second round.
BetterWorldz
Member
That's assuming he would be able to beat Le Pen, against whom he's the weakest candidate among the other three likely to be on the second round.
Palette Swap
Member
Technically, Hamon reaching the second round would equally accomplish that. Except the chances of this happening seem slim as hell.
Anyway, here we go, we're officially on the day of the first round. I half expect them to not be able to call two winners at 8pm, which could lead to a tense night. At least, M6 don't give a fuck and they'll show The Avengers instead of an electoral night. To be fair, CG Hulk wrecking shit is less dumb and annoying than the usual punditry.
(And yeah, I'm pretty sure Fillon-Le Pen is the scenario she's rooting for right now)
Anyway, here we go, we're officially on the day of the first round. I half expect them to not be able to call two winners at 8pm, which could lead to a tense night. At least, M6 don't give a fuck and they'll show The Avengers instead of an electoral night. To be fair, CG Hulk wrecking shit is less dumb and annoying than the usual punditry.
(And yeah, I'm pretty sure Fillon-Le Pen is the scenario she's rooting for right now)
Palette Swap
Member
I've found ~9 works well usually. But yeah, 13 sounds like a good idea too.
Wouldn't Le Pen missing the second round be even better?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked