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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Palette Swap
Member
Le Canard's "I'm telling you she didn't do anything!" headline is really good.
If anything, I really hope someone adds transparency measures to their platform. Fillon is a symptom of a deeper issue, and that so many in our parliamentary class feels this is overblown shows how out of touch they are.
Yeah, but to be fair, there's a really good way to avoid that kind of media assassination, which involves not doing it in the first place, and not having an awful line of defense.
If anything, I really hope someone adds transparency measures to their platform. Fillon is a symptom of a deeper issue, and that so many in our parliamentary class feels this is overblown shows how out of touch they are.
Systolique
Member
I always find those kind of situations hilarious ; Fillon probably 5 or 6 people helping with his PR from behind the scenes and the best thing they came up with is "a coup from the left"
whyamihere
Banned
New poll :
Fillon looks toast.
Wow. It really could be Macron v. LePen.
BaronLundi
Member
Polls...
But that would be like one of the best outcome possible for a 2nd round given the current situation.
Extreme infighting that causes a big spilt in the party. If Le Pen doesn't win this election there is a good chance the more right wing part of the FN will fight with the more left wing part of the party.
It's the worst option for le pen right now. She would get absolutely crushed if she faced Macron in the second round.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Polls are usually correct. Jospin didn't believe the polls that predicted Le Pen would pass him in 2002, but they were right there.
Even the 2016 US presidential election polls weren't completely wrong since Clinton did get 3 million more votes than Trump, and only lost because of the electoral college.
Even the 2016 US presidential election polls weren't completely wrong since Clinton did get 3 million more votes than Trump, and only lost because of the electoral college.
Alx
Member
Yeah the polls aren't the issue, it's the volatility of the voters that makes them useless as a prediction of the results. All the moderate candidates are uncertain values right now, either because they're unusual for such situation (Hamon), offer incomplete information (Macron) or are facing external issues (Fillon). Those three can still change a lot in the coming months. But I don't doubt that the polls reflect the current mood.
I flicked through the first one, and it felt boring and over-dramatic. Although after a few days of Trump, I may have to reconsider that.
I flicked through the first one, and it felt boring and over-dramatic. Although after a few days of Trump, I may have to reconsider that.
BreitbartFR here we go!
If media assassinations mean people get held accountable for attempted rape or showering their spouse in public money, I'm all for it. I sincerely wish there were a hell of a lot more of them. Infinitely better than the usual complacency, we've had a posse of self-serving crooks running the country and sitting in the parliament, they have not been of much use to the general public but their pockets sure have grown bigger. They preach frugality for others, but they're the first to abuse the system for their own benefit. Fillon: "our country is bankrupted!", the next day flies home in a Falcon for the weekend, because he can. I'll never vote for Le Pen, for political reasons but also because, in terms of integrity, she's no better than anyone else. But I can't hold it against anyone that is done with french governing parties and does vote for her. It's a grave mistake but one I can understand, if not subscribe to.
There's practically no accountability for French politicians. You can tell from the total look of surprise when they get caught. Woertz: "bubububu look at my face, it's the face of an honest man!" Cahuzac:"I'll look you in the eyes and guaran-fucking-tee I did nothing wrong!", Guéant:"yes, I absolutely sold that pos painting for 5 times the price, I'm just a rly rly rly good sales person! This is no kickback!". All I hear when they talk is, "WHY MEEEE! They all do it, why mee?"
Easiest explanation why we're stuck with crooks is the system is lacking counter-powers. What the fuck is the press doing? What the fuck is judiciary?
Alx
Member
To me it looks like the counter-powers work, the press outs the cheaters and the justice punishes them. Otherwise we wouldn't even know of all the Cahuzac, Guéant, etc. The issue is that politicians don't learn and still want to take the chance.
I think a first step to fix that would be to have full transparency on all public spending. It's ok that politicians get paid for their work and even well paid (to avoid corruption), but they should disclose whatever they're doing with the money. I think that's what they're doing in some Nordic countries.
Alx
Member
French newspaper Le Monde launched its "fake news classifier" today. Actually it's a classification of websites, based on their reliability. May be useful in the near future.
http://www.lemonde.fr/verification/
http://www.lemonde.fr/verification/
Palette Swap
Member
Welp. Looks like Fillon's initial defense of "there's nothing illegal here, even my children were employed" backfired spectacularly, as his children are now covered by the investigation too.
When he touted his family oriented platform, we didn't know he was being so literal.
Le Monde also had an interview with Le Pen where she basically confirms she wants to leave the EU. Obviously she doesn't put it this way and uses the Dodgy Dave playbook: we'll renegociate some key points like borders and monetary policy, and we'll do a referendum asking people if they want to leave or agree with the negotiated conditions.
When he touted his family oriented platform, we didn't know he was being so literal.
Yeah, this is a great initiative.
Le Monde also had an interview with Le Pen where she basically confirms she wants to leave the EU. Obviously she doesn't put it this way and uses the Dodgy Dave playbook: we'll renegociate some key points like borders and monetary policy, and we'll do a referendum asking people if they want to leave or agree with the negotiated conditions.
I don't think it works for shit. I think it's only the idiots and the sloppy that get caught. And even then, they get off with a slap on the wrist. Guéant gets firm jail time? My ass he does, he's not gonna spend a single minute in jail. There's barely any investigative press in France. There's mediapart, then le canard every now and then, and lemonde had its little thing with sarkozy. That's it. When one of them actually fishes out something, then all the others jump on the bandwagon like for Fillon now, but where was lemonde on this, originally? Don't they feel the shame of having a satirical newspaper doing their job for them? None of them give a shit. Liberation dont give a shit. Le figaro dont give a shit. They have 0 money for anything. Shitty political editorials where they spout out the party line, fine, they got time for that. But funding investigative work? Like, actual, journalistic investigation? Forget about it! Cahuzac could have had his accounts forever if he had not fucked up and called someone that hated his guts. Noone would have ever found out, because none of them are doing their job.
The press is a failure, and justice is not holding any of the crooks that get caught accountable. Fuck all of them. /rant
Palette Swap
Member
Speaking of Le Figaro, Dassault will probably be dead by the time he's exhausted all his appeals. People like him are a shining example the system simply doesn't work.
Like Fillon said last year "Une justice rapide et ferme est une nécessite absolue que vous réclamez. L'impunité zéro doit être la règle !"
Like Fillon said last year "Une justice rapide et ferme est une nécessite absolue que vous réclamez. L'impunité zéro doit être la règle !"
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Levallois mayor Balkany already started removing Fillon posters from his town, lmao.
Alx
Member
What did they say ?
I must admit that I was completely wrong about the backlash of this story. I expected it to cause minor trouble and then be forgotten, but it seems that it may really cost Fillon his candidacy after all.
Herb Alpert
Banned
That feel when even balkany is ashamed of you.
LOL
Basically a 2007 video of penelope fillon straightly saying that she has never worked for her husband. That due her third child she didn't even try to find a job.
Prepare for treason.
"I have never been his assistant," says Penelope Fillon in 2007.
Fake edit: I know I'm slow, but this is getting too delicious. And I give a link.
I have to admit, the France info intern is on point with Fillon pictures.
Fake edit: I know I'm slow, but this is getting too delicious. And I give a link.
Bye, François!
I have to admit, the France info intern is on point with Fillon pictures.
I've made a huuuuge mistake. said:
PotionBleue
Member
Polls were absurdly wrong with the primary of the right. 30% (most optimistic prediction) vs. 44% (actual Fillon result) was a fuckup of much bigger scale than Brexit or Trump.
Sondages sur la primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre en 2016 Wikipédia
I have a hard time believing the high figures for Macron I feel he's like the 2012 Mélenchon who was constantly overhyped by polls.
Liste de sondages sur l'élection présidentielle française de 2012 Wikipédia
Sondages sur la primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre en 2016 Wikipédia
I have a hard time believing the high figures for Macron I feel he's like the 2012 Mélenchon who was constantly overhyped by polls.
Liste de sondages sur l'élection présidentielle française de 2012 Wikipédia
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Baroin, Bertrand and Wauquiez right now:
A lot of people went for Hollande instead, you know "tactical vote".
Macron is cleary too high right now, the question is how much will he loose in March when things are going to get really serious.
Yesterday morning on France Inter he was already proposing something unconstitutional regarding members of the parliament... I wonder what's it going to be when he'll have to actually talk about his program.
At this point I wonder who is going to end up facing Le Pen in the second round at this point. I'm not sure if Macron can keep on gaining momentum until April 23. If Fillon gets replaced by someone else that person may struggle to make it to the second round at this point because of the turmoil that is affecting Fillon's camapign.
Gurgelhals
Member
So what's going to happen on the Républicains side, if Fillon actually drops out? IIRC, Juppé has already ruled out to step in as a substitute, but they're not going to go into these elections without an actual candidate, right? Would they do another primary before the actual election or what?
What I'm covertly asking is: Would somebody please reassure me that this doesn't mean that fucking Sarkozy could stage another comeback attempt! Pretty please?!?
What I'm covertly asking is: Would somebody please reassure me that this doesn't mean that fucking Sarkozy could stage another comeback attempt! Pretty please?!?
I really think you should calm down with these rants. I mean if it makes you feel good about yourself it's fine but I hope you realize this attitude not only does nothing to help, but feeds into the distrust for institutions that is undermining democracies all over the world at the moment.
You need to realize that institutions are not flawless, especially justice. Tons of criminals walk free, and I'm not only talking about politicians here: white collar criminals, petty criminals, rapists, drug lords, you name it. It's hard to meet the burden of proof, which is not necessarily always a bad thing. Things mostly ever change incrementally, and usually in the right direction, if you don't start throwing the baby out with the bath water. It's good to be vigilant, but throwing tantrums is not helping.
He won't attempt anything like that. He got crushed once. Why would he want to be the LR's nominee after the beating he took during their primary?
he did that because the party won't support his friend to replace him as a mayor, not because of the penelopegate thoughThat feel when even balkany is ashamed of you.
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
Can we have Juppé as a candidate please?
Too bad he said three times already he doesn't want to be an emergency alternative
Too bad he said three times already he doesn't want to be an emergency alternative
if you're thinking of the contract with MPs so that they obey him/don't rebel, it's indeed unconstitutional but I understood that as a guaranty that he's not going to change his line after all the vallsists join him
/macron defense force
Can we have Juppé as a candidate please?
Too bad he said three times already he doesn't want to be an emergency alternative
I rather the right just put in a throw away candidate if they can't find anyone good and join forces with Macron in the second round to help him beat Le Pen if Fillon never recovers from this scandal.
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
Juppé already threw away his career twice, I don't see him doing it again.
That's a shame.
Judiciary system not perfect? You don't say. I do understand guilty people do get to walk free on occasion, thank you. I fail to see why that would mean we shouldn't hold politicians accountable for their actions. Shouldn't we be doing that? Their lack of accountability is the very thing that is undermining democracy. Their lack of accountability is what is feeding the distrust for institutions. Not some idiot's rant on some random forum, no matter how self-important I might feel.
Alx
Member
Don't watch the value at a given day, watch the evolution of the curve. The polls gave 30% for Fillon a few days before the vote, but also shows a steep exponential curve, that meets the results on election day.
And if you watch the results of Trump and Brexit, you can also notice that the dynamics were both times in favor of the winning side.
Can we have Juppé as a candidate please?
Too bad he said three times already he doesn't want to be an emergency alternative
Let's throw away someone that will be convicted in order to replace him with someone that has been convicted...for fictionnal work too, at a much bigger scale !
The only right-wing guy that could do the job would be De Villepin*, since he withdrawed from the day-to-day agenda of politics and has a very good image on international issues, even on the left-wing.
*former President Chirac's equivalent of US Chief of staff, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, former Prime Minister
harriet the spy
Member
Honestly if I was part of his PR team I'm not sure I could come up with better . This shit is indefensible and I think he is fucked barring a miracle
DiipuSurotu
Banned
De Villepin's image is tarnished by the Clearstream affair though, as well as the strikes against his Contrat Première Embauche laws in 2006. The latter may sound like a long time ago but for many people who are now adults these strikes were the first strikes they ever participated in so they're likely to remember.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Apparently some people in the media are starting to feel sorry for Penelope, claiming that she may legit not have been aware of this job contract and the corresponding salary, and that she lives an utterly boring life with a neglecting husband and kids that despise her for not having a career. Wow...
Alx
Member
Good news, the French version of Breitbart may not be ready for the elections :
http://www.lemonde.fr/actualite-med...france-avant-plusieurs-mois_5073777_3236.html
Breitbart has been trying to find local journalists and an editor to launch it, but they don't seem to have made much progress.
http://www.lemonde.fr/actualite-med...france-avant-plusieurs-mois_5073777_3236.html
Breitbart has been trying to find local journalists and an editor to launch it, but they don't seem to have made much progress.
Being a politician's wife sure sounds awful. Even worse when you see how women are treated in politics...
About that ! If you want to act against breitbart, you can follow https://twitter.com/slpng_giants and https://twitter.com/slpng_giants_eu . It's about raising awareness among advertisers that their products appear next to xenophobic/misogynistic content, a lot of them don't know that and pull out their ads. I think it's a good idea.
On topic, polls today :
Le Pen 25%
Macron 20.5%
Fillon 18.5%
Hamon 16.5%
Mélenchon 10%
http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-Pour-Fillon-il-y-a-le-feu-a-la-baraque-1180700
If Macron goes down too can LePen win?
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