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[UnluckyKate]

What's unbelievable about it?

3 months ago every one said : it will Be juppé against lepen in the second turn and juppé will obviously win like Chirac in 2002. End of story no need for this election.

Then Macron happened.

Then fillon happened.

Then hamon

Then...fillon went away.

I mean the dice are rolling hard.

But the stars cannot be more aligned for Macron. He has a real shot a this.

 

[Magni]

Le Pen doesn't want to pay the $321000 she misspent to pay an aide at the FN's headquarters in paris. The deadline for the payment has passed now.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38821074

This story is definitely going to hurt le pen in both rounds of the french presidential elections.

She'll spin it as "fuck Europe amirite" and her fans will eat it up. Good thing we have two rounds.

 

[Simplet]

She'll spin it as "fuck Europe amirite" and her fans will eat it up. Good thing we have two rounds.

Some of her fans will eat it up, but it just looks disgusting to everyone else, ensuring even more that she has no chance in the second round. Ranting about the EU 24/7, and then not only taking their money but stealing European cash to finance your party? That's not a great look.

I'm really hoping Bayrou does the right thing here...

 

[Magni]

Some of her fans will eat it up, but it just looks disgusting to everyone else, ensuring even more that she has no chance in the second round. Ranting about the EU 24/7, and then not only taking their money but stealing European cash to finance your party? That's not a great look.

I'm really hoping Bayrou does the right thing here...

I guess for the undecideds... it just blows my mind that people can be undecided about her though.

As for Bayrou, I voted for him last time and wouldn't mind voting for him again if we had IRV, but we don't. So yeah, please don't run Bayrou.

 

[Mac_Lane]

New poll :

Fillon looks toast.

 

[UnluckyKate]

New poll :

Fillon looks toast.

Macron got this ? What a twist...

 

[Tugatrix]

Macron will be president won't he? Fillion is sinking in the polls fast, even Hamon will get ahead of him

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Ok Fillon's dead.

Time for the real savior.

François Baroin :

That would make everything easier wouldn't it ?

Baroin needs to retire and become a rapper.

 

[Funky Papa]

Hamon needs to take some of Schulz's HOHE ENERGIE and make it happen.

My loins yearn for another French leftist.

 

[Chibrou]

I don't think that's really a good idea for the FN to keep referencing to Trump and his "work", the guy is, like elsewhere in the world, a godamn bad joke and I'm pretty sure that none of his policies would have a good echo in France. Sorry usa but your misery can have some benefit for other countries (or am i too hopeful?).

This, plus the shady business in brussels can really prevent them from gaining any traction above their own deplorables.
I would hope that it will prevent her to go the second tour. That would be something.

The Election is not boring, that's a plus.

 

[Funky Papa]

I don't think that's really a good idea for the FN to keep referencing to Trump and his "work", the guy is, like elsewhere in the world, a godamn bad joke and I'm pretty sure that none of his policies would have a good echo in France. Sorry usa but your misery can have some benefit for other countries (or am i too hopeful?).

This, plus the shady business in brussels can really prevent them from gaining any traction above their own deplorables.
I would hope that it will prevent her to go the second tour. That would be something.

The Election is not boring, that's a plus.

I've been noticing that Trump's policies have a surprising appeal among certain voters. They will ignore anything as long as he keeps dark skinned people away.

Europe, not just France, needs not to sleep on that.

 

[G.O.O.]

New poll :

Fillon looks toast.

That's probably the lowest number a mainstream right wing candidate could get.

EDIT : oh look, our good friends at wikileaks seem to be targeting Macron now. What a coincidence.

 

[azyless]

Macron will be president won't he? Fillion is sinking in the polls fast, even Hamon will get ahead of him

There's still a long way to go and Macron has been vague about his program so far, depending on what's in there things could change again. I doubt Fillon will stay so low for long.

 

[Alx]

New poll :

Fillon looks toast.

Funny that Bayrou doesn't seem to "steal" voters from a candidate in particular, or rather he does but a little bit to each one (Hamon, Macron, Fillon and even Le Pen). He probably wouldn't make a difference one way or another. But he probably won't go in if his polls stay below 5%.

 

[Dascu]

I've been noticing that Trump's policies have a surprising appeal among certain voters. They will ignore anything as long as he keeps dark skinned people away.

Europe, not just France, needs not to sleep on that.

Without further context or explanation, in many ears all the news about Trump sounds like:
a) Safeguarding security and stability via strong migration controls (regardless of how counter-productive and ineffective migration block is against terrorism)
b) Doing 'what needs to be done' and delivering campaign promises (regardless of how shitty those are)
c) No compromise for crying liberals or protesting establishment politicians (regardless of how much his actions are deserving of protest)

From a distance, he's just a tough, no-nonsense leader. And that superficial analysis is appealing to many.

 

[Alx]

EDIT : oh look, our good friends at wikileaks seem to be targeting Macron now. What a coincidence.

Lol, what a "leak". They're quoting a generic presentation to Clinton, that seems to be a copy-paste from Wikipedia. And they're trying to turn it into a big deal ?
"Everything that Macron didn't wan't you to know about him... (except that it's the first thing you'll find if you google his name)"

 

[Palette Swap]

A mainstream candidate facing such a scandal less than three months from the election is something else.
I still think half the crisis they're currently facing is because of the terrible way they have handled the situation.

Macron was pretty eloquent on the radio this morning, but I expect a lot of attacks on him in the next couple of months.
This is all Terra Incognita, but we might be walking a path towards a Marine presidency. Her biggest lever isn't getting more voters, it's voter apathy and a low turnout, which could definitely happen if everyone else was discredited enough. She's a crook herself, but her voters don't care.

Funny that Bayrou doesn't seem to "steal" voters from a candidate in particular, or rather he does but a little bit to each one (Hamon, Macron, Fillon and even Le Pen). He probably wouldn't make a difference one way or another. But he probably won't go in if his polls stay below 5%.

He's too LTTP to really weigh in now.

 

[G.O.O.]

Lol, what a "leak". They're quoting a generic presentation to Clinton, that seems to be a copy-paste from Wikipedia. And they're trying to turn it into a big deal ?
"Everything that Macron didn't wan't you to know about him... (except that it's the first thing you'll find if you google his name)"

THE PUTINOPHILES MIGHT NOT GET ELECTED

DO SOMETHING

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Funny that Bayrou doesn't seem to "steal" voters from a candidate in particular, or rather he does but a little bit to each one (Hamon, Macron, Fillon and even Le Pen). He probably wouldn't make a difference one way or another. But he probably won't go in if his polls stay below 5%.

To get a boost he should have slapped Valls or something

 

[Coffinhal]

Macron will be president won't he? Fillion is sinking in the polls fast, even Hamon will get ahead of him

We're almost 3 months away from the election, and considering how fickle are the poll...

New poll :

Fillon looks toast.

Expected :

-Fillon pays hard and is going back to a very low level.

-Hamon stole Mélenchon and Jadot's electorates. That's Hollande2012 all the way back, thanks to the primary and the surprise effect. Mélenchon is going to have a hard time now, he's back to his 10%. That means that an alliance between the three could go up to the 2nd round.

-Macron's electorate is the least sure about its choice (around 50%). Most are around 40%, except for Le Pen (20% are not sure they'll vote for here). So it's moving, and there are also a great numbers of people who are undecided and don't chose someone in the poll.

Funny : Mélenchon's 2012 voters are the people who voted in 2012 that say will vote the least for Le Pen (4%). Le Pen is attracting old left wing voters that didn't vote anymore, and a bit of Sarkozy's voters.

 

[Blader]

New poll :

Fillon looks toast.

I know very little about how presidential elections work in France, but doesn't this poll have Le Pen in the lead? Why are people saying Macron will be president based on this?

 

[Gurgelhals]

I know very little about how presidential elections work in France, but doesn't this poll have Le Pen in the lead? Why are people saying Macron will be president based on this?

Because there are two rounds of voting. There's going to be a runoff between the two frontrunners of the first round and Le Pen doesn't have the voters to get past 50% there.

 

[Alx]

I know very little about how presidential elections work in France, but doesn't this poll have Le Pen in the lead? Why are people saying Macron will be president based on this?

It's a two round election, the first two candidates from the first round get to face each other in a second round.
Assuming the first round follows the latest polls, Macron and Le Pen would be qualified for the second round, but most voters of Hamon and Fillon would vote for Macron (supporters of Mélenchon may split, or abstain). Le Pen is just too unpopular outside of her own party to be elected.

 

[Holden]

I know very little about how presidential elections work in France, but doesn't this poll have Le Pen in the lead? Why are people saying Macron will be president based on this?

If you don't have 50% in first round top 2 go to 2nd round

Every other candidate is favored vs lepen in a 1v1

Look at the 2002 french election if you want

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

No candidate had over 20% in first round and a crushing 80% in 2nd round

 

[Tugatrix]

I know very little about how presidential elections work in France, but doesn't this poll have Le Pen in the lead? Why are people saying Macron will be president based on this?

unless there is a candidate with more than 50% of votes, there will be a second round, and there Le Pen probably won't win, but with 2016 I can't be sure anymore. Macron is raising in the polls and starting to look like the candidate that will go to the second round

 

[Alx]

Quadruple combo ! ^^

 

[Blader]

Well then! :lol Thanks for the answer(s).

 

[Pomerlaw]

It's a two round election, the first two candidates from the first round get to face each other in a second round.
Assuming the first round follows the latest polls, Macron and Le Pen would be qualified for the second round, but most voters of Hamon and Fillon would vote for Macron (supporters of Mélenchon may split, or abstain). Le Pen is just too unpopular outside of her own party to be elected.

You sound too damn sure about this.

 

[Alx]

You sound too damn sure about this.

Not sure, but confident. It doesn't mean I can't be wrong.

 

[G.O.O.]

You sound too damn sure about this.

Le Pen winning would be a huge surprise (as of now, anyway), and that's from someone who's being conservative after seeing Trump win over Clinton.

Macron is trusted, Le Pen isn't, and there's no electoral college to save her ass. Her election isn't impossible, but remains unlikely.

 

[Coffinhal]

You sound too damn sure about this.

That's what political history and sociology teach us, and last polls show this too. I understand that foreign medias (outside of France) like to do some clickbait with "After Trump, Brexit...Le Pen ?", and even some French medias, but the rules and the habits of the system are all turned against that kind of isolated candidate.

 

[Slaythe]

Macron is a scam.

There has never been a winner announced months ago so it'd be quite unusual for Macron to win.

I'm hoping for Baroin or Hamon.

 

[Blackthorn]

Are French elections always this exciting? It's twist after twist. This is thrilling compared to years of UK elections being slow marches towards disappointment.

 

[Alx]

Are French elections always this exciting? It's twist after twist. This is thrilling compared to years of UK elections being slow marches towards disappointment.

Nah, usually we have the leaving president facing the leader of the opposition, and everybody assumes one of them will be elected. The FN candidate used to be there as an annoyance, and another "third man" candidate tries to get enough votes to be able to negociate with one of the two front-runners for the second round.
This year is exceptionally animated and open (the last upset was in 2002 when for the first time the leader of the opposition didn't qualify).

 

[Coffinhal]

Macron is a scam.

There has never been a winner announced months ago so it'd be quite unusual for Macron to win.

I'm hoping for Baroin or Hamon.

2007 and 2012's results were almost known in advance, there was little surprise if you remember the papers criticizing Royal's bad campaign and isolation within the left or Sarkozy's lack of gathering sense and unpopularity.

Nah, usually we have the leaving president facing the leader of the opposition, and everybody assumes one of them will be elected. The FN candidate used to be there as an annoyance, and another "third man" candidate tries to get enough votes to be able to negociate with one of the two front-runners for the second round.
This year is exceptionally animated and open (the last upset was in 2002 when for the first time the leader of the opposition didn't qualify).

Wrong. Jospin wasn't the leader of the opposition but the leader of the majority since he was Prime Minister and that's the first definition of his job. Chirac was President but kind of the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly after he lost the 1997 elections.

And in 2002 the campaign wasn't that animated before the second round, thus the Le Pen surprise, the last real upset was 2007 and Bayrou challenging Royal and Sarkozy in an election with three relatively new heads.

 

[Gurgelhals]

Are French elections always this exciting? It's twist after twist. This is thrilling compared to years of UK elections being slow marches towards disappointment.

Normally they're not that exciting because they boil down to a runoff between the candidates of the two major parties (the socialist left and the gaullist right). This time is a bit different because the socialists have gradually self-destructed during Hollande's inept presidency, so it was always assumed that the runoff will be between the right wing candidate and Le Pen (who would then lose. bigly.). But now that Fillon is under pressure as well, it suddenly seems not improbable that another candidate might make it into the runoff vote.

In short, all eyes are on the first round of voting this time, which is unusual.

 

[orioto]

You sound too damn sure about this.

People thinking it's going to be like 2002 are wrong.

2002 > Lepen is an old one eye nazi and Chirac is faaaaar from being as on the right as Fillion or Sarkozy. Voting against Lepen is a survival matter, (also french are surprised and shocked, and humiliated by this second turn) and voting Chirac is not that horrible.

Now, Fillion/Lepen for second turn ?
_lepen is way more credible and accepted than her father
_She managed to steal some leftie ideas and has a strong popularity among poor workers.
_She's just higher in polls anyway than the FN ever was before
_There is no surprise or shock effect anymore. There is a resignation. I mean we've known for 5 years that she'll be at the second turn. It's a given, people have accepted it.

_Fillion is realllllly pretty far on the right.
_Left voters will basically be like "well fuck you then, keep your far right france i'm not interested." Some 'i heard some of them) will even think, "well if we're sinking, let's sink deep!"

I still think Fillion would win, but it won't be 80% i can tell you.

Now, if we have something crazy like Hamon/Lepen (who knows) or melanchon/lepen... God help us all. Cause i can tell you a big part of Fillion voters will go straight lepen.

 

[Alx]

Yeah we know for sure that it won't be a 80-20 this time, and that's unfortunate.
In the end the only risk I'd consider would be a Mélenchon-Le Pen second round. Which would be quite unlikely, since it would require that Fillon, Macron AND Hamon crumble for some reason (good thing that we got Hamon instead of Valls btw).

In all other situations, I'd trust the candidates to be smart enough and appeal to the different electorates, and probably mellow their programs to be less scary. Because they know they'd rather make a compromise than lose to Le Pen.
In the end it shouldn't be that hard, they could convince many people by scaring them with a possible "Frexit" that Le Pen would be pushing for.

Jospin wasn't the leader of the opposition but the leader of the majority since he was Prime Minister and that's the first definition of his job. Chirac was President but kind of the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly after he lost the 1997 elections.

Yeah I never really remember the Prime Ministers, only the president. Anyway, he was the leader of the party opposing the president.
And yes the 2002 upset was quite different. 2007 wasn't that animated though, there was tension because of the unexpected importance of Bayrou, but things went quite slowly everything considered.

 

[Blackthorn]

Nah, usually we have the leaving president facing the leader of the opposition, and everybody assumes one of them will be elected. The FN candidate used to be there as an annoyance, and another "third man" candidate tries to get enough votes to be able to negociate with one of the two front-runners for the second round.
This year is exceptionally animated and open (the last upset was in 2002 when for the first time the leader of the opposition didn't qualify).

Normally they're not that exciting because they boil down to a runoff between the candidates of the two major parties (the socialist left and the gaullist right). This time is a bit different because the socialists have gradually self-destructed during Hollande's inept presidency, so it was always assumed that the runoff will be between the right wing candidate and Le Pen (who would then lose. bigly.). But now that Fillon is under pressure as well, it suddenly seems not improbable that another candidate might make it into the runoff vote.

In short, all eyes are on the first round of voting this time, which is unusual.

Thank you for the detailed replies, it's the first time I've paid attention to the French (and German) elections, because so much is depending on them.

 

[Funky Papa]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

 

[Coffinhal]

blabla bla Cause i can tell you a big part of Fillion voters will go straight lepen.

Do you have anything to support these claims ?

Anything, political fiction and you don't acknowledge how the two-round system works.

Yeah I never really remember the Prime Ministers, only the president. Anyway, he was the leader of the party opposing the president.

But that's important in that case because the Prime Minister takes his power from the National Assembly and therefore he is the one in charges of most issues, except for Foreign Affairs and Military. The split between the executive ("cohabitation") doesn't happen anymore but you can't understand why Jospin lost if you don't ackowledge that he represented 5 years of the left in power.

 

[G.O.O.]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

Probably a few years of dictatorship, unfortunately. So basically seeing them in power.

 

[Alx]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

Well there's a long way to go.
Better economy and less unemployment would clearly help, since the FN feeds mostly on poor and unhappy people. They're very important in the north of the country, which is the poorest area, and people there blame it on everything (EU, immigration, traditional left/right policies,...) while not being specifically exposed to any of those.
Some geopolitical events like Brexit (assuming its consequences are as bad as expected) or hopefully some solution in the Middle-East would defuse some of the FN favourite arguments, but as long as people are unhappy, they will support the extremes anyway.

 

[Coffinhal]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

They have been strong for 20 years or so and since the 2010s there is a strong trend of ethno-nationalist-populism in Europe and in the world so that explains why she's so high.

If a right-wing candidate is doing what Macron does for the center-right, the center and the center-left, and if she is in difficulty, her numbers may drop. That happened in 2007 thanks to Sarkozy's campaign being though on immigration and strong on a new free-market society.

If she manages to win all the numbers we have show that her supporters would continue to support her if she pleases them, but that's political fiction and after the Trump experiment I'm not a big fan of "let's try it and see what happens".

My hypothesis is that she's going to be strong for a few more years (5? 10?) and will eventually fall because her party will challenge her leadership and her ability to win (local and general elections).

Her isolation on the political spectrum is her strengh (because she can say she's against the system, the elites etc) but also her weakeness (because she's isolated and the French system favours people and party that know how to make coalitions).

 

[azyless]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

Marginal ? Bar some exceptional event the only thing I could see would be them being in power for a few years and massively fucking up.
They would probably lose some popularity if the economic situation was better and the left wasn't a bit of a mess though.

 

[Khaz]

Le Pen would have had a chance against Fillon pre Penelopegate because of voter apathy. People did resolve themselves to vote Chirac in 2002, but Fillon would be one tough pill to swallow.

And let's not forget she would be unable to govern effectively. It's much easier to obtain the majority in a national apathetic vote than in most of the local legislatives. No matter how good their score was in the presidential, they never got more than a couple of MPs. She would have to make a coalition with the rest of the right, and that might be quite difficult.

 

[Irminsul]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

I wonder if a change in the electoral system would help. Currently, you can vote for FN basically "care-free", because they won't get into power anyway. Which can be seen, of course, as some kind of safeguard, because it prevents "Oops" moments like Brexit and Trump. On the other hand, it gives FN some "We against the system" kind of ammunition.

Suffice to say that's just guesswork and coming from a German who grew up with an electoral system where (two-step) FPTP only ever happens for mayor elections.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Breaking: Fillon has been an employee of a private-sector consultancy firm for years for a job which has earned him at least 200,000€ and which he never publicly disclosed

We can add "conflict of interest" to the list...

 

[Slaythe]

Breaking: Fillon has been an employee of a private-sector consultancy firm for years for a job which has earned him at least 200,000€ and which he never publicly disclosed

We can add "conflict of interest" to the list...

Ok so we have DSK and Fillon as the most obvious "media assassination" of the 5th republic.

Baroin here we go !

 

[Systolique]

I'm honestly wondering what would it take to make Le Pen and the FN a marginal political party again.

I think both a successful presidential mandate from the left and the confirmation of the terrible aftermath from Brexit and Trump would do so, and they could coincide at just the right time