Dude Abides
Banned
Predicting upheld in its entirety, 5-4.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
- Status
There will be hilarious meltdowns either way, that much is guaranteed.
The Librarian
Banned
10am.
Well, at least the libertarian/conservative set is coming right out and saying it:
http://marginalrevolution.com/margi...-mandate-should-the-right-have-supported.html
http://marginalrevolution.com/margi...-mandate-should-the-right-have-supported.html
The Librarian
Banned
I'll predict 5-4, mandate is overturned. Next likely is 6-3 upheld.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Priorities USA keeping up the Bain attacks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6uMlsQ9HiFo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6uMlsQ9HiFo
Ironically, if Obamacare is upheld, that probably worsens Obama's chances in November (still think he'll win), since it will energize the Romney base and those against the law.
I actually think the best case scenario for Obama is that just the mandate is thrown out - it will give people the impression that the law was found unconstitutional, but in reality will leave in everything Obama wants in there (it just won't be economically feasible).
I actually think the best case scenario for Obama is that just the mandate is thrown out - it will give people the impression that the law was found unconstitutional, but in reality will leave in everything Obama wants in there (it just won't be economically feasible).
Seems like you of all people would recognize the knob job Obama will receive from the press if it's upheld.
Can't wait to see those sirens! If it's upheld, Drudge will break out some tri-corner hat.jpgs, gonna be great theater either way.
cartoon_soldier
Member
The law being upheld is the best ruling for everybody. Hopefully it also causes the media to ask Romney for specifics on what he would do if he wants to repeat HCR 1st day. And it will allow Obama to say whatever they passed was constitutional and he can explain the free rider argument a lot better in debates than the Media has till date.
Hmm, yeah, it would make the election an even more clear choice, I'm fine with that. Also, the debates would be more interesting if it's upheld.
My slight optimism is based on SC not wanting to be viewed poorly in a historical sense--and also the rulings of several state's courts on the matter--if it's overturned. I'm in CT, where we will forge ahead with HCR regardless of today's decision.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I think it has to do with the fact that the oral arguments in AZ case made it seem like a lost cause for Obama Admin but the final ruling was more friendlier to them. Some also saw Scalia's rant as a foreshadowing of the HCR decision.
I still think whole law will be struck down 5-4
Scalia just loves a good rant.
The Librarian
Banned
That's very unlikely.
el retorno
Member
Will peope stop talking about legacy like its something they argue when they decide? Besides scalia (and Bush v. Gore) I think the Justices do generally care about merits of the cases and try to use their interpretations to find what they think is fair verdict.
They're not gonna sit there and say I think its unconstitutional but it will look better if I vote this way. That doesn't happen.
People in here are always more optimistic than they should be. Some of their economic predictions have been pretty damn painful to watch.
I think it is as likely as the whole thing getting upheld.
I've long held the belief that it'll be another 5-4 ruling striking down the mandate, if not the entire bill. It's been clear to me since the legislation was passed.
And I should've saved all the responses I got in here about how intrade says Obamacare will be upheld, or how many constitutional "experts" have came out and said it'll be upheld.
And I should've saved all the responses I got in here about how intrade says Obamacare will be upheld, or how many constitutional "experts" have came out and said it'll be upheld.
The Librarian
Banned
I've long held the belief that it'll be another 5-4 ruling striking down the mandate, if not the entire bill. It's been clear to me since the legislation was passed.
And I should've saved all the responses I got in here about how intrade says Obamacare will be upheld, or how many constitutional "experts" have came out and said it'll be upheld.
How dare people side with legal precedence!
They actually did mention the lack of precedent for the case and the potential effects of overturning what could be considered the president's biggest achievement. I don't expect them to be any more explicit than that, in regards to their legacy.
And I should've saved all the responses I got in here about how intrade says Obamacare will be upheld, or how many constitutional "experts" have came out and said it'll be upheld.
Yeah you could have totally made an awesome post about how people can have optimistic opinions in a generally debbie downer area
not even the AZ ruling. In the mandatory sentencing ruling Roberts, who read a second and separate dissent in the courtroom said that they should defer to the legislators that created the rule.
Thats a pretty bold thing to say, separately in his own dissent, a few days before he would come out and not defer to legislators.
i'm just here for the ride
Thats a pretty bold thing to say, separately in his own dissent, a few days before he would come out and not defer to legislators.
i'm just here for the ride
I've long held the belief that it'll be another 5-4 ruling striking down the mandate, if not the entire bill. It's been clear to me since the legislation was passed.
And I should've saved all the responses I got in here about how intrade says Obamacare will be upheld, or how many constitutional "experts" have came out and said it'll be upheld.
Intrade is at 73% mandate unconstitutional.
I would love it to be upheld and cite Romneycare as their example.
Yeah, you can side with legal precedence, or, ya know, look at the make-up of the SCOTUS and understand why Repubs want cases like Citizens United, Obamacare, and abortion to be agrued in front of the court.
Yeah you could have totally made an awesome post about how people can have optimistic opinions in a generally debbie downer area
I could, yes.
That would possibly lead to maximum hilarity...so I'm with you!
The Librarian
Banned
You can't blame people for thinking the law will be upheld before the oral cases because it was clearly on the side of legal precedence (even still, some people think the law will be upheld).
But continue to voice your wish to have the opportunity to make a bragging post about a prediction you had that leads to people without health insurance that would otherwise have it under the law (and thus saving lives). Grand idea. You're so special, you!
Yeah, that was before the oral arguments in March. But now? Yeah, intrade has flipped.
That would be awesome to watch unfold
Legal precedence, or wishful thinking? I'm going with the latter.
And if I wanted to have a bragging post, then I would've bookmarked those posts to shove it people's faces. But I didn't. Why? Because I want HCR, too. But I imagine the meltdowns here and the OT thread will be entertaining.
Reading is fundamental.
The Librarian
Banned
Um, legal precedence? If you go by the way SCOTUS has ruled for the past seventy-five years, it should've been obvious which way the decision would land.
Dude Abides
Banned
Yep. If there's an argument against this being constitutional, it's the 5th amendment, not the Commerce Clause. But the SC is getting pretty hackish.
This court (not exactly this court) already said fuck you to the 5th once with Kelo, probably wise to not argue that way if they wanted an overturn.
I've got freep and du loaded and ready!
you should get kos in a third tab
Du is so much better than kos. Like, exponentially better.
Manmademan
Member
What is "du?" I don't recognize that blog
Democratic Underground?
Manmademan
Member
New to me. I'll check it out
Buddha Beam
Banned
You know, if they released them, I would totally eat one of those giant rainbow Oreos.
Eating more than that would give me diabetes, but I'd totally eat at least one.
Eating more than that would give me diabetes, but I'd totally eat at least one.
Even as a liberal I find that community pretty embarrassing.
Oh man you are missing out. The place to be when things go sideways for the left. Fucking batshit insanity.
- Status