PhoenixDark
Banned
In short, Obama voters will stay home, leading to a Romney victory. Hubris before the final fall
In short, Obama voters will stay home, leading to a Romney victory. Hubris before the final fall
In short, Obama voters will stay home, leading to a Romney victory. Hubris before the final fall
Ann Romney said:I love the fact that there are also women out there that dont have a choice, that they must go to work and they still have to raise the kids, Romney said. Sometimes life isnt easy for any of us.
Some people think that I didnt work, Romney said. I didnt have help for many, many years.
At a Fund Raiser. Winner for me though is...
Pretty significant dropoff
At a Fund Raiser. Winner for me though is...
Nothing to worry about, right dax/aaron strife/etc?
Nothing to worry about, right dax/aaron strife/etc?
See, Im ok when Romney says he gave away his inheritance money - though his inheritance came to him well after his success at Bane Capital. Because its true, he did.
But I get annoyed when he tries to then make the leap that he is basically the same as the low income kid who literally had nothing and is trying to make his way to the top.
Romney is one of the few fortunate people in this country to be born into a family with the funds and connections to guarantee him the best schools and the ability to not have to support himself while attending them. Not to mention a family name that probably opened many doors that would never be opened to people without such prestigious backgrounds.
Nothing to worry about, right dax/aaron strife/etc?
It will be interesting to see if Obama's ground game can get some of that enthusiasm back. That is a pretty steep drop-off, though.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/nh-poll-obama-by-9-romney-seen-unfavorablyNH Poll: Obama By 9, Romney Seen Unfavorably
A new poll of New Hampshire shows President Obama with a nine point lead in the state, as his overall approval rating and rating on the economy have recovered. Obama gets 51 percent of likely voters in the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) for Manchester, NH television station WMUR, while like GOP nominee and former Romney sees 42 percent support.
Obama’s approval rating is at a positive 50 - 47 split after spending most of 2011 underwater in UNH’s polling, and his approval on the economy stands at 47 percent against 50 percent disapproval, again better than it was in 2011. Romney’s personal favorability is at 36 percent among likely voters in the state, against 51 percent unfavorable.
Pretty significant dropoff
Wow context is everything, in April 2008 Hilary and Obama were fighting it out to be the Democratic nominee the first Non-Bush election. A Woman and a Minority compared to Robot Romney, yup same thing
But yeah 2012 is the same thing
Watch that number when we get to September and it will rise
And I know PD is doing his usual schtick but LOL at using black and latino unemployment numbers, especially for Latinos
Fear of Deportation and Immigration Issues >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Economy, especially since if you were Latino you would know the US mistakenly deports legal US Citizens and the last thing they need is US laws that make that easier
The conservative first-term mayor formally launched her bid for Congress on Thursday in Mrs. Gorham's third-grade classroom at Saratoga Shores Elementary School.
If elected in November, Love would be the first black Republican woman in Congress and Utah's first black representative. She said she would join the Congressional Black Caucus in Washington, D.C., should she win.
"Yes, yes. I would join the Congressional Black Caucus and try to take that thing apart from the inside out," she said.
Though officially nonpartisan, the caucus has been more closely identified with the Democratic Party.
"Its demagoguery. They sit there and ignite emotions and ignite racism when there isnt," Love said. "They use their positions to instill fear. Hope and change is turned into fear and blame. Fear that everybody is going lose everything and blaming Congress for everything instead of taking responsibility."
The caucus isn't the only thing Love said she would dismantle in Washington. The departments of education and energy must go, she said. States, she said, should take back those duties along with health care.
Love, a married mother of three, said she chose a school to kickoff her campaign because she wants to help children achieve their dreams.
"I will not stand by and leave a legacy of debt and dependency," she said. "I am here to tell the children in this community, the children in this state, the children in this country, you will have a voice in Washington."
See, Im ok when Romney says he gave away his inheritance money - though his inheritance came to him well after his success at Bane Capital. Because its true, he did.
But I get annoyed when he tries to then make the leap that he is basically the same as the low income kid who literally had nothing and is trying to make his way to the top.
Romney is one of the few fortunate people in this country to be born into a family with the funds and connections to guarantee him the best schools and the ability to not have to support himself while attending them. Not to mention a family name that probably opened many doors that would never be opened to people without such prestigious backgrounds.
Sweet lord, this Herman Cain interview on The Daily Show is amazing. I kinda miss him.
:O
The Cain train's on the Daily Show?
President Romney's a shoo-in, right PD? He'll probably win pennsylvania because he's so MODERATE.
John Oliver did an 'Inside the Actor's Studio'-type interview with him. Definitely worth watching.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705396842/Love-would-take-apart-Congressional-Black-Caucus-if-elected-in-Utahs-4th-District.html
Mia Love would 'take apart' Congressional Black Caucus if elected in Utah's 4th District
Are we just ignoring 07/08 when Obama skated through the primaries as the media savaged Hillary, and later when Obama received dominating coverage over McCain in the general? Cry me a river
DOOM
President Romney's a shoo-in, right PD? He'll probably win pennsylvania because he's so MODERATE.
I have a terribly short memory, is a 4 point lead (looking at the TPM average) by an incumbent president prior to conventions something to crow about?
For reference, in the latest TPM poll, Walker has a 4 point lead over Barrett and reaches 50%. Do you feel pretty confident that Walker will win?
Haha while I'm pretty skeptical of Barret pulling it off, I feel it is worth mentioning that due to it being a non-traditional election that it's a whole different ball game that is much harder to predict.
My prediction at this point is that both Obama and Walker increase their margins of victory. (percentage point wise, I think Obama will get fewer electoral votes this time around though).
I don't know. The number of recall signatures collected was staggering. If that many people show up* to vote against Governor Walker then he is finished. How much does signing the petition correllate with voting though? I'd think it would increase chances. If that is the case is the polling following an incorrect model, one that doesn't factor in the effects of people signing a recall petition on voter liklihood?
If you were to ask me, though, I'd give the edge to Governor Walker as the polling suggests... but if it turns out the other way I wouldn't be very suprised.
* Also, if I was a betting man, I'd say that less people show up to vote against Governor Walker than signed the petition. They were out on every street corner, even in very pro-Walker territory (I'm in Brookfield now). No way that every person who signed one votes... I just hypothesise that it increases the liklihood of a person voting.
There isn't much Romney can do. Obama has been carving out the middle for the past 2-3 years (post-Scott Brown) and the people have noticed. Romney still has little merit among the far right. So, he can't run to the middle and win back those voters and he won't be able to whip up the Southern-Western conservative base to offset it. Then there's the demographic problems the party has with women and Latinos.
At this point, I'd say we are looking at a similar result as 2008 with maybe a little Obama backlash that will make the EV count a little bit closer.
Why does it seem like every republican wants to dismantle the department of energy and education?
I just don't see that working, given the horrific unemployment rates among young people - most of whom were crazy about Obama four years ago; how did that work out. Black and Hispanic unemployment rates are quite high as well.
Many people are truly struggling and have no idea the economy is "getting better." It's not surprising why the groups that propelled Obama to victory won't be nearly as enthused for four more years of the same
Why does it seem like every republican wants to dismantle the department of energy and education?
Why do you focus on one metric to tell your story and completely ignore the one that actually matters: growth? Ezra has a calculator this morning that test the likelihood of Obama winning with using the two stats that matter: GDP growth and his approval rating. Even with a low growth rate of 2.0 and an approval rating of 40%, Obama has a 2:1 odds of winning.
Did you know that Bush won in 2004 with a 46% approval rating and 1.4 GDP growth? Take a look at the past winners at the bottom: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/
I suppose because the general electorate localizes politics - they don't care if GDP is growing or if the unemployment rate went from 8.3 to 8.2 percent in the last 6 months - they care if they have a job. In 2004, despite your statistics, unemployment was at 5.5% and heading lower. Nobody is going to sit there and think "Well, I know I don't have a job, but GDP is heading up and that's enough to get me to vote for Obama!"
I suppose because the general electorate localizes politics - they don't care if GDP is growing or if the unemployment rate went from 8.3 to 8.2 percent in the last 6 months - they care if they have a job. In 2004, despite your statistics, unemployment was at 5.5% and heading lower. Nobody is going to sit there and think "Well, I know I don't have a job, but GDP is heading up and that's enough to get me to vote for Obama!"
If you're not careful, Pangloss, PD will add you to the Dax/Aaron Strife Overly-Optimistic-of-Obama's-Chances Group.Why do you focus on one metric to tell your story and completely ignore the one that actually matters: growth? Ezra has a calculator this morning that test the likelihood of Obama winning with using the two stats that matter: GDP growth and his approval rating. Even with a low growth rate of 2.0 and an approval rating of 40%, Obama has a 2:1 odds of winning.
Did you know that Bush won in 2004 with a 46% approval rating and 1.4 GDP growth? Take a look at the past winners at the bottom: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/
Edit: His father lost with 38% approval rating (People punish those that break pledges: "Read my lips.") and 2.1 GDP growth. He also was going up against Clinton who Romney is definitely not.
And where is unemployment going now? Here is google where you can look at individual states, especially the ones that are toss ups: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=state:ST080000:ST190000:ST550000:ST510000:ST420000:ST330000:ST390000&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
Show me a map where Romney wins the election while losing both Virginia and Ohio.
Thanks for the link, I'll keep that handy.
I like this graph from Calculated Risk because it ranks the states by unemployment rate, and also shows how much improvement each state is seeing.
Look at Michigan.
An uneducated populace, and a country with gutted energy regulations? Sounds like GOP heaven.
A four point lead for Obama by all measures would still give him a EV landslide over Romney (here classified as over 300 EVs).I have a terribly short memory, is a 4 point lead (looking at the TPM average) by an incumbent president prior to conventions something to crow about?
For reference, in the latest TPM poll, Walker has a 4 point lead over Barrett and reaches 50%. Do you feel pretty confident that Walker will win?
Thanks for the link, I'll keep that handy.
I like this graph from Calculated Risk because it ranks the states by unemployment rate, and also shows how much improvement each state is seeing.
Look at Michigan.
A four point lead for Obama by all measures would still give him a EV landslide over Romney (here classified as over 300 EVs).
Walker will still lose btw. I won't bet on it though simply because I don't want to become a desperate shill like PD.
A four point lead for Obama by all measures would still give him a EV landslide over Romney (here classified as over 300 EVs).
Walker will still lose btw. I won't bet on it though simply because I don't want to become a desperate shill like PD.
I'm starting to think Walker might not lose (but that it doesn't actually matter because the State Senate's going to swing back to the Dems anyway)
and despite liberal's best intentions to smear Wisconsin's economic state
For real purposes, the elections is meaningless unless Falk wins. Walker doesn't have much left to accomplish (though it would obviously end his political career for awhile) and Barrett doesn't have the backbone to freeze state government over Act 10.
As long as Falk loses, nothing Walker has done will be undone.