How unstable? It's on the precipice of succumbing to the strife which beset the country a few years ago. And without the presence of coalition troops, the situation is even more problematic. The IISS produced a fairly accurate
assessment of the situation. Although, I think they are singularly focused on Maliki while ignoring Iraq's broader institutional predicament. Iraq's federal structure was intended to capture the acquiescence of the Kurds by decentralizing power. But it simultaneously introduced fissures between a few of the provinces and Baghdad. The National Interest published an
article on this problem a few months ago.Bilateral relations have deteriorated precipitously. We're annoyed with their duplicity and toleration of insurgent groups that destabilize Afghanistan. They're incensed at the drone strikes and repeated violations of their sovereignty. Really, our interests in Afghanistan are diametric. So there's little hope of a productive solution. We might cajole them into opening the supply routes. But beyond that, the situation will not improve.