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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
MN has one of the best senator duos imo. Good to see she's going to win

Now if only Bachman can be defeated...
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It's such a damn shame that Wellstone died. But Franken and Klobuchar really are excellent senators.

Even Franken who everyone assumed was going to be a joke and Democratic hack has high approvals here, just not stratospheric like Klobuchar.

Wisconsin's delegation would be slightly better if it were Feingold and Baldwin, too bad it'll probably be Thompson and Johnson.
 
M

markatisu

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I'm a little ignorant on this bit of demographic data... why would Romney have the Cuban vote over Obama?
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Cubans, especially those 40+ are traditionally very hardcore GOP because of that sides position towards Castro and Cuba. Younger Cubans are more independent and democrat because they grew up without first hand knowledge of Castro and so that is not the defining issues for them.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Survey USA polls are very weird. Be wary of trusting them. Just yesterday they had Mitt Romney up by 10% in NC and claimed he was getting 30% of the african american vote.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Cheebo said:
Survey USA polls are very weird. Be wary of trusting them. Just yesterday they had Mitt Romney up by 10% in NC and claimed he was getting 30% of the african american vote.
Click to expand...

Good point. Also it has Obama only holding 41% of the white vote. If he falls below 40% he probably loses unless Hispanic turnout is insane.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I'm a little ignorant on this bit of demographic data... why would Romney have the Cuban vote over Obama?
Click to expand...

Cuban-Americans tend to be very anti-Communist, since they were generally fleeing the purges in Cuba. They also tend to be pretty hardline about diplomatic engagement with Cuba. And, of course, some of them remember the Bay of Pigs. Obama won 47% of the Cuban-American vote in Florida in 08, so for him to be leading at all is pretty surprising, much less leading by 16. Guess Romney found something they hate more than Castro.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
pigeon said:
Cuban-Americans tend to be very anti-Communist, since they were generally fleeing the purges in Cuba. They also tend to be pretty hardline about diplomatic engagement with Cuba. And, of course, some of them remember the Bay of Pigs. Obama won 47% of the Cuban-American vote in Florida in 08, so for him to be leading at all is pretty surprising, much less leading by 16. Guess Romney found something they hate more than Castro.
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It could also be shifting attitudes among younger Cubans, who don't care as much.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
pigeon said:
Cuban-Americans tend to be very anti-Communist, since they were generally fleeing the purges in Cuba. They also tend to be pretty hardline about diplomatic engagement with Cuba. And, of course, some of them remember the Bay of Pigs. Obama won 47% of the Cuban-American vote in Florida in 08, so for him to be leading at all is pretty surprising, much less leading by 16. Guess Romney found something they hate more than Castro.
Click to expand...

Ah, I see. Though if he got less than half of the cuban vote in '08 and now supposedly has a commanding 16 point lead, that sounds like as much of a fluke as the recent poll giving Romney 30% of the black vote in NC.
 
M

markatisu

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Ah, I see. Though if he got less than half of the cuban vote in '08 and now supposedly has a commanding 16 point lead, that sounds like as much of a fluke as the recent poll giving Romney 30% of the black vote in NC.
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I would not be surprised if its somewhat true, not 16 points but Romney has not exactly been Mr National Security so its not like he is giving Cubans a reason to like him outside the R next to his name
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
This may be a good looking poll for Obama but the cuban numbers are as absurd as their african american numbers for Romney in NC. I learned to basically ignore Survey USA in 2008, they had just as oddball numbers back then too.
 
F

FleckSplat

Member
Woo! My parents just registered as Democrats over the weekend! Lifelong Republicans who have had enough of the "lies from the GOP." They voted for Obama in '08 and will again in '12!
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
FleckSplat said:
Woo! My parents just registered as Democrats over the weekend! Lifelong Republicans who have had enough of the "lies from the GOP." They voted for Obama in '08 and will again in '12!
Click to expand...

Congrats!

Now go burn some U.S. flags to celebrate!
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Does anyone feel weird about Iowa being lean obama this year? in 2008 it was understandable, but this year as a swing state its the one im probably 80% sure Obama will win it. i always tick it blue on 270.com. Weird.

FleckSplat said:
Woo! My parents just registered as Democrats over the weekend! Lifelong Republicans who have had enough of the "lies from the GOP." They voted for Obama in '08 and will again in '12!
Click to expand...
welcome commie!

what state are they from?
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Cheebo said:
Survey USA polls are very weird. Be wary of trusting them. Just yesterday they had Mitt Romney up by 10% in NC and claimed he was getting 30% of the african american vote.
Click to expand...

That poll also has obama up only by 67 points among african americans in Florida. That's way, WAY lower than nationally in 08, or this year. Obama typically gets 95%+ of the black vote across the board. And that's not even race related- Kerry, Clinton, and Gore had black support in the high 80s to low 90s. Any poll that puts Obama at 80% of the black vote in Florida or elsewhere is garbage.

there is NO double digit support for romney among the black community anywhere. none. one poll had him at literally zero nationwide.

something about their methodology is flawed here.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Black Republican said:
Does anyone feel weird about Iowa being lean obama this year? in 2008 it was understandable, but this year as a swing state its the one im probably 80% sure Obama will win it. i always tick it blue on 270.com. Weird.
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Well we have a GOP state government and a GOP Governor so that is why it is being looked as a toss up. If you lived here you would know its going Blue

The rural areas hate Romney, that is why they went with Santorum in the primaries. The inner cities are all for Obama and that is where the bulk of the votes will come from
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Republican said:
Does anyone feel weird about Iowa being lean obama this year? in 2008 it was understandable, but this year as a swing state its the one im probably 80% sure Obama will win it. i always tick it blue on 270.com. Weird.
Click to expand...

It's one of the whitest states in the country, and Obama isn't doing well with white voters. Thankfully Romney is burning bridges over wind energy
 
M

markatisu

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It's one of the whitest states in the country, and Obama isn't doing well with white voters. Thankfully Romney is burning bridges over wind energy
Click to expand...

But yet Obama won the Caucus over Hilary and then the election in 2008, race has nothing to do with it unlike the South or other Midwestern states.

Not to mention there are counties that have had 300-500% Hispanic growth since 2000, that is hurting Romney as well. We had two of the largest raids in Iowa History over the past decade and immigration is a huge issue for the state

But like you said Romney basically pissed away any chance with his wind comments, several cities and the community college I work at rely on the partnerships with Wind Power manufacturers to stay afloat
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
markatisu said:
But yet Obama won the Caucus over Hilary and then the election in 2008, race has nothing to do with it unlike the South or other Midwestern states.

Not to mention there are counties that have had 300-500% Hispanic growth since 2000, that is hurting Romney as well. We had two of the largest raids in Iowa History over the past decade and immigration is a huge issue for the state

But like you said Romney basically pissed away any chance with his wind comments, several cities and the community college I work at rely on the partnerships with Wind Power manufacturers to stay afloat
Click to expand...

not saying he's losing due to race, just that Obama isn't doing well with white voters overall. Romney should win Iowa, but the fact that he's losing tells me he's a weak candidate...

Romney can pander to everyone except alternative energy apparently. It's laughable
 
V

Vahagn

Member
There are a large portion of the Republican electorate in Iowa who think Obama is a Muslim or he wasn't born in the US.


If you believe either of those two things, you're not going to vote for him. (The people intelligent enough to not care whether or not he's Muslim, are intelligent enough to know he isn't one).


The case could be made that the people who believe he's a Muslim or not a Citizen wouldn't vote for him anyway but I doubt that applies to everyone. I think if 35% of the Republicans in Iowa believe one of the two scenarios in 2012, that it's conceivable that 1 or 2% of the general electorate in 2008 that voted for Obama from that state could have been Republicans fed up with Bush and the state of the economy, but have now reverted back to hard leaning Republicans because they "found this stuff out" after he got elected.


That's my theory, essentially that I can see the whole "Muslim or not Citizen" thing peel away at least 1 or 2% of Obama voters from 2008.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
markatisu said:
But yet Obama won the Caucus over Hilary and then the election in 2008, race has nothing to do with it unlike the South or other Midwestern states.

Not to mention there are counties that have had 300-500% Hispanic growth since 2000, that is hurting Romney as well. We had two of the largest raids in Iowa History over the past decade and immigration is a huge issue for the state

But like you said Romney basically pissed away any chance with his wind comments, several cities and the community college I work at rely on the partnerships with Wind Power manufacturers to stay afloat
Click to expand...

+the farm bill that's been stalled in the Congress by the republicans (including Paul Ryan). Iowa needs it's corn.
 
K

kehs

Banned
Twitter Must Produce Occupy Protester’s Tweets: Judge

A Manhattan judge overseeing an Occupy Wall Street disorderly conduct case gave Twitter until Friday to turn over a protester’s messages or face a heavy fine.

“Under New York law as it stands today, corporations are people,” Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Matthew Sciarrino Jr. said Tuesday morning. “I can’t put Twitter or the little blue bird (the company’s logo) in jail, so the only way to punish is monetarily.”

Threatening contempt of court, the judge gave Twitter until Friday to comply with his June 30 order that the popular social media network produce the “tweets” and user information that prosecutors believe Occupy Wall Street protester Malcolm Harris posted under the account “@destructuremal.”

The judge ordered that Twitter supply the 140-character or less messages posted between September 15 and December 30 of last year. Harris was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct along with about 700 other marchers who were accused of blocking the Brooklyn Bridge on Oct. 1.
Click to expand...


http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/09/11/twitter-must-produce-occupy-protesters-tweets-judge/
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Copernicus said:
You mean, Jim Cramer can't figure out how to resolve that issue?

This guy gives financial advice?
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Jim Cramer sucks, but anyone who wants to shed light on the nastiness of this Voter ID bullshit is okay in my book, at least on that issue. That stuff should be seen as vile to anyone who respects democracy.
 
C

coldfoot

Banned
Copernicus said:
“Under New York law as it stands today, corporations are people,” Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Matthew Sciarrino Jr. said Tuesday morning. “I can’t put Twitter or the little blue bird (the company’s logo) in jail, so the only way to punish is monetarily.”
Click to expand...
What happens if twitter doesn't pay?
 
J

Jackson50

Member
PhoenixDark said:
If dems retake the house...lol. Ingram is right, the GOP should just give up if they lose this thing. Every indicator says an incumbant should be weak as hell when running with 8% unemployment and snail slow job growth.

And if they take the house too? Hell Obama could just let the Bush tax cuts expire, then pass his own middle class tax cut in January.
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That depends on your definition of "weak." Obama's not dominating Romney. He possesses a modest advantage, sure. But the election has been close for most of the cycle. I'd say he's fairly weak, although that might be shifting. If you mean weak as synonymous with losing, no.
pigeon said:
I thought Nate Cohn had an interesting article about the weakness of money as a political asset this year.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107100/why-romneys-money-advantage-no-game-changer
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I've iterated similar points for most of the cycle; I believe I even cited the same articles. The influence of Romney's money advantage is exaggerated for the reasons he expounds. A more insightful argument posits the deluge of money may effect down-ballot elections. And that's indeed problematic.
Loudninja said:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...e-in-national-guard-speech.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
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Admitting he'll adhere to Obama's timeline isn't problematic. I understand Republicans believe virtually every decision of Obama's to be catastrophic. But he could bend this single instance. Also, the focus on the security forces underscores our, this applies to both candidates, misconception of the problem.
Averon said:
I'm hearing a lot of "Well, Jimmy Carter was ahead of Reagan during this point in the presidential election" or some variation of that. The electorate, candidates, and a host of other things I'm probably forgetting, are completely different. Romney isn't Reagan. Obama--despite what conservatives say--is not Jimmy Carter. Obama doesn't have a foreign policy debacle hanging around his neck. Hoping that history repeats itself seems rather weak at this point.
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It's a common misapprehension that Carter was leading Reagan at this juncture. But that's primarily based on Gallup polling. An aggregation of the polls reveals that Reagan never really relinquished the lead.

trialheats1980.png
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G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixDark said:
not saying he's losing due to race, just that Obama isn't doing well with white voters overall. Romney should win Iowa, but the fact that he's losing tells me he's a weak candidate...

Romney can pander to everyone except alternative energy apparently. It's laughable
Click to expand...

To add a nuance to this, Obama's problem is with whites in certain regions of the country. He wins them in Oregon, for example, which is equally as pasty white as Iowa. It's really the white male vote, and in particular the white male southern vote, that pulls his national share down.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Cloudy said:
Anyone else really disturbed with Netanyahu's transparent ploy to help Romney? Nice to see Obama told him to get lost.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/obama-will-not-meet-with-israels-netanyahu-this-month/

He obviously wants to make some kind of scene to shake up the race
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Not as disturbing as Putin's transparent ploy to help Obama.
Averon said:
Another reason to vote for Obama: If Romney wins, there's no doubt we'll be entangled in some Iran/Israel conflict.
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Romney might even direct the attack. Democrats are not without their proclivity for intervention. But I'm confident Obama's preference for multilateralism will serve as a constraint.
 
C

coldfoot

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
To add a nuance to this, Obama's problem is with whites in certain regions of the country. He wins them in Oregon, for example, which is equally as pasty white as Iowa. It's really the white male vote, and in particular the white male southern vote, that pulls his national share down.
Click to expand...

Obama will never win the rich vote or the ignorant dumbass vote, that's for sure.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I don't think Putin's comments are meant to help Obama. He is just stating the obvious. Hell, the comments could hurt Obama cos they will say he's "buddies" with Putin
 
M

markatisu

Member
Cloudy said:
I don't think Putin's comments are meant to help Obama. He is just stating the obvious. Hell, the comments could hurt Obama cos they will say he's "buddies" with Putin
Click to expand...

I am imagine the people who have concerns over Putin's motives are not voting for Obama anyway
 
A

Averon

Member
Black Mamba said:
Our policy towards Israel will be the same no matter which one is President.
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Broadly, yes. But Obama at least shown he will not do whatever Israel wants or bow to their pressure. There's a reason Obama and Netanyahu's relationship is ice cold. Romney, on the other hand, will absolutely bow to Israeli pressure to sign off an attack on Iran. It doesn't help that his national security and foreign policy teams are filled with former Bush officials and neo-con wonks--the very same people who got us in Iraq.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Black Mamba said:
Our policy towards Israel will be the same no matter which one is President.
Click to expand...
Romney will bend over backwards and declare undivided Jerusalem as Israel's future capital, and balk at 1967 borders. Obama won't.

Edit: The more Ari Fleischer speaks, the more I want to punch his face. What a slimebag. Why is this guy on CNN payroll?
 
M

Mutanthands

Member
RustyNails said:
Romney will bend over backwards and declare undivided Jerusalem as Israel's future capital, and balk at 1967 borders. Obama won't.

Edit: The more Ari Fleischer speaks, the more I want to punch his face. What a slimebag. Why is this guy on CNN payroll?
Click to expand...

This entire back and forth on CNN trying to pin 9-11 on one party versus the other is probably the most disgusting thing I've seen this election season. Both of them make me sick.
 
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