PhoenixDark
Banned
+3 D sample, down from +6 in 2008. Can't wait to hear conservatives dismiss this
Obama is reaching or breaking 50% in Virginia and Ohio now...
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
- Thread starter pigeon
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+3 D sample, down from +6 in 2008. Can't wait to hear conservatives dismiss this
Obama is reaching or breaking 50% in Virginia and Ohio now...
Black Republican
Member
still doing the ban bet?
EmCeeGramr
Member
What exactly would constitute a "strong" foreign policy here? Outright subjugation or annihilation of the Muslim world?
Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) has been saying for over a month that the presidential race is basically over and people should shift to paying attention to the House and Senate, both of which have a coin flip for control.
At this point, I'm convinced. VA and OH just aren't happening for Romney.
At this point, I'm convinced. VA and OH just aren't happening for Romney.
Also I don't really heart Ron Paul. Thanks, TA
cartoon_soldier
Member
That be good sign for Obama indeed.
I think he has always had an Avatar bet going on
The Bush Doctorine - If you aren't our ally, you are our enemy. Or something like that.
lol
cartoon_soldier
Member
Also, PD, what do you say now after seeing the enthusiasm % highest among African Americans in various states?
Re-invading Iraq. But for real, this time.
Spring/Summer 2011, I took the entire Republican field vs TA's Romney.
My read was that Romney would be completely unacceptable to the Republican base, and that he was way too exposed on Romneycare to survive the primary process given how whipped up Republicans were (and are) over Obamacare.
Obviously I was wrong. Insofar as my original intuition, I take solace in knowing that basically everyone and their mother lead Romney at some point and that that the process ended up being the Romney vs not Romney show. So I guess I didn't anticipate the effectiveness of the Romney SuperPAC bubble, nor the refusal of most of the Republican heroes to enter, nor the sheer incompetence of the one who did.
Black Republican
Member
only cause they getting white peoples stuff when reelected!
Aaron Strife
Banned
Sam said recently that his outlook for the Democrats in the House is pretty favorable. They have about a 5 point lead on the generic ballot.
I'm getting optimistic again! Dammit all!
God yes. The Onion is on fire this political season.
You're just lucky I chickened out on giving you the 'Don't renig in 2012" bumper sticker.
Yeah, I might have had to sit the election out from that one. So thanks.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I've got Obama at a realistic 268 EVs now, and that's leaving CO, NV, NH, FL, IA, and WI as swing states.
Really curious about new Wisconsin polls.
Really curious about new Wisconsin polls.
Hobbestetrician
Member
The last polls that Romney lead in either NH or NV were back in April.
I lost so much money taking the field against Tiger Woods in the early aughts that I just stay the fuck away from this type of bet these days.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Romney's hopes are hinged on winning New Hampshire he's doomed.
PPP says young voters are more excited about voting than seniors. That's... certainly problematic! As well as contrary to conventional wisdom, that young voters have soured on Obama and are tuning out of politics. I have to wonder if Obama has a built-in advantage in 18-21 year olds not being picked up by the polls - most LV polls ask if you voted in a previous election and will disqualify you as an LV based on that.
The Librarian
Banned
Huh. I didn't know PPP was based in Raleigh. :/
Black Republican
Member
i know ppp lean left, but sheesh at business man romney losing the economy argument in most these polls
Awesome
Mitt Romney Reaches Out To Young Voters With Laser Tag Pizza Party
http://www.theonion.com/articles/mitt-romney-reaches-out-to-young-voters-with-laser,29534/
Onion news people.
Mitt Romney Reaches Out To Young Voters With Laser Tag Pizza Party
http://www.theonion.com/articles/mitt-romney-reaches-out-to-young-voters-with-laser,29534/
Onion news people.
They specialize in local NC polls, down to the district level. It's one of the reasons I really pay attention to their state and national polls there - they know the state well.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Main reason why they poll North Carolina every week.
PPP actually erred slightly in Republicans' favor in 2010. They only lean left relative to other pollsters.
Romney even being tied with Obama on the economy is bad news. Obama's foreign policy record has been stellar (can't argue with the man who got OBL) and his stance on social issues is mainly consensus-based. The economy is literally the only way Romney can win, and clearly not enough voters are convinced that Obama's been a drag on the economy.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Surprisingly this is the one time I think they will get NC wing when it comes to presidential election.
The Librarian
Banned
I want to see that Warren-Brown poll now.
Black Republican
Member
wheres poligaf getting their election night coverage from?
im sticking with Twitter/msnbc/fox combo.....and here too ah jeez
aftermath will be the redstate and freerepublic forums
im sticking with Twitter/msnbc/fox combo.....and here too ah jeez
aftermath will be the redstate and freerepublic forums
I'll be flipping between MSNBC and Fox News just for the laughs.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Mm, our candidate in 2010 was worse and he still won comfortably, after some polls had it close then too. I'm not too worried.
So that means the senate race is going to be featured on Monday Night Raw all through October lol
Occupy was the biggest let down. Instead of partying like homeless people and throwing feces into banks, they should have put that energy into educating the public and getting people to vote.
Yeah, but people have no f'n clue who Chris Murphy is, they knew Blum.
:_(
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I'll probably flip around but I'm always excited to see what goofy-ass new technology CNN is waiting to spring on us every election. Will be disappointed if it's anything less than a Wolf Blitzer hologram sitting in the chair next to me.
CNN for the goofy tech and to see if Cooper can escape this time. My money is on a Star Trek transporter for Blitzer and or a holodeck.
I kinda have a weird thing for Rachel Maddow. (Don't ask, as I haven't quite figured it out myself.) But seeing her laugh and smile through a victorious night is too irresistable. I might peek at Fox News from time to time for some giggles.
Washington Journal will be must-see TV the following morning, as the "Independant" and "Republican" callers are positively hysterical. Then, Fox News all day on the day after. It's gonna be delicious.
And PoliGAF's going to be irreplaceable.
So many salty Republicans in the comments.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Called it (not here tho). 7 point swing. Not bad.
Oof. That tiny lead will go away quick.
Hobbestetrician
Member
If it's not gone already.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, good thing Scott Brown's got this on lockdown.
It's not that. If she got this small lead because of the convention, then it's likely that bump will mostly fade, right? It doesn't even have to mostly fade; just by three points, and she loses. And that's assuming PPP isn't slightly biased in her favor in this case by say like one point.
Murphy just recently mustered the money to produce this ad
http://youtu.be/kMSnjonDMSw
Whereas Linda has had the same commercials on repeat for months.
http://youtu.be/kMSnjonDMSw
Whereas Linda has had the same commercials on repeat for months.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obama's sustained his bump, it's plausible Warren could too. All she needs to do to win is solidify the Democratic base, and if that's where her bounce is coming from, that gives her a huge leg up in the general election.
In fact, here's PPP's latest tweet:
She has more room to grow than Brown.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Warren has a shot as this is a Presidential Election year.
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