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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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S

speculawyer

Member
FliXFantatier said:
and are theses states actively campaigned in at all?
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Nope. And it is pretty much a blessing because your TV & Radio doesn't become a vast hate machine spewing negative ads.

The nominees will visit for fund-raisers though . . . so if you have a spare $20K, then you can go hear a candidate speak. Otherwise, it is much cheaper to fly to a swing state if you want to hear a candidate speak.



Romney's unfavorables pretty much limit him from getting ahead. At best Romney could win this in a squeaker if he gives a blow-out debate performance and some other big thing happens hurting Obama.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
I can't believe that Wisconsin poll. If that's true then that's insane. Romney and his superPACs are bombarding Obama like mad here, and there's pretty much 0 pushback on the TV from Obama. If he's still winning by a lot, then there's no way Romney's taking this state.

Clevinger said:
If you've never seen a deer in headlights before, skip to 53 seconds into the video.
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Holy crap. He's dodging like crazy there. He's trying to play a nice guy while silently acknowledging he totally does think that half this nation are moochers.
 
C

Chumly

Member
Hopefully these polls put a dent in romneys fundraising. People are not going to want to toss millions down the drain for nothing.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
RDreamer said:
I can't believe that Wisconsin poll. If that's true then that's insane. Romney and his superPACs are bombarding Obama like mad here, and there's pretty much 0 pushback on the TV from Obama. If he's still winning by a lot, then there's no way Romney's taking this state.
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I am seriously going to put forth the thought that the more commercials put on TV above a certain point, the less people like a candidate.

I was visiting my parents in Michigan last week and during their local network news broadcast, nearly ever commercial was a political commercial. It was infuriating.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
The Romney SuperPAC ads are totally devoid of substance. They have no effect whatsoever. You'd get more people to vote Romney by not playing those ads.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Plinko said:
I am seriously going to put forth the thought that the more commercials put on TV above a certain point, the less people like a candidate.
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Probably, but then why's Baldwin suddenly winning? They're hitting Thompson pretty damned hard right now, too. Perhaps the accusations are just sticking more...

ErasureAcer said:
The Romney SuperPAC ads are totally devoid of substance. They have no effect whatsoever. You'd get more people to vote Romney by not playing those ads.
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If you pay attention and realize they're a load of crap, yeah, but if not then I could see some of them getting some people. As I said before, there's a Crossroads GPS one with Obama saying he won't raise taxes on people making less than $250k, then it says that's a lie, because of Obamacare. That part I could see being kind of eh, but the next part says Romney's tax plan lowers taxes by 20%. If you're paying attention you'd know he's lying through his teeth, but if not...

Romney himself has a decent ad here, actually. He seems pretty pleasant, and I think it works well here. Nothing really substantive, as you said, but it feels a bit more human than I've seen him before.
 
A

Allard

Member
Plinko said:
I am seriously going to put forth the thought that the more commercials put on TV above a certain point, the less people like a candidate.

I was visiting my parents in Michigan last week and during their local network news broadcast, nearly ever commercial was a political commercial. It was infuriating.
Click to expand...

Meg Whitman effect. More you try to hammer your point against someones head the more deluded its message becomes especially if the message really doesn't resonate extremely well to begin with.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Plinko said:
I am seriously going to put forth the thought that the more commercials put on TV above a certain point, the less people like a candidate.

I was visiting my parents in Michigan last week and during their local network news broadcast, nearly ever commercial was a political commercial. It was infuriating.
Click to expand...

We in California call it the Whitman-effect.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Plinko said:
I am seriously going to put forth the thought that the more commercials put on TV above a certain point, the less people like a candidate.

I was visiting my parents in Michigan last week and during their local network news broadcast, nearly ever commercial was a political commercial. It was infuriating.
Click to expand...

Pretty much, we get ads for McMahon all the freaking time. We can't even vote for her, it's just plain stupid. A couple I understand, but there are commercials for her almost all the time during certain hours. It's infuriating and it would be no matter who it was.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
The TV ads must have some effect, otherwise why run them. I wonder what the statistics are for people who are actually swayed by political advertising. The only thing positive I notice in political advertising is the ability to tell who's paying / supporting the advertisement in question. This is especially true for local props and elections. I usually ignore whatever message the ad is trying to convey though. I don't know if I'm in the minority or not.

Also ... being in California I am glad I don't have to be bombarded by hate ads for the presidential campaigns.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
fivethirtyeight-0919-celltest-blog480.png


Also ... being in California I am glad I don't have to be bombarded by hate ads for the presidential campaigns.
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yeah, I love it. Only the occasional national commercial during sports.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
speculawyer said:
Why is New Mexico a safe Obama state when it is surrounded by Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Oklahoma? Seems a bit odd.
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% of Latinos.

E: Beaten.

And I kinda like the non-cell phone polling lowering Obama's viability just a tad. It'll make for such a sweeter surprise on election night when he out-performs expectations.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
speculawyer said:
Why is New Mexico a safe Obama state when it is surrounded by Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Oklahoma? Seems a bit odd.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and say the hispanic vote.

per Wiki:

New Mexico is the state with the highest ratio of Hispanics, 44.7%. Next are California and Texas, with 35.9% and 35.6%, respectively
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Which is one of the reasons why people think the GOP needs to change their paltform or risk losing more southern states that always leaned red in the future. TX is soon to follow.

EDIT: man you guys are fast.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I'm fully convinced that the "redistribution" clip was the GOP's October surprise. They need to fire their oppo research guys. All they have is a 14 year old clip and other stuff taken out of context lol.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Cloudy said:
I'm fully convinced that the "redistribution" clip was the GOP's October surprise. They need to fire their oppo research guys. All they have is a 14 year old clip and other stuff taken out of context lol.
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I agree with this. I think they assumed, as I did, that this would be a close race going into October, and they'd drop the video in late September so ensure it was brought up in the first debate. Now...madness and stupidity, as Tywin Lannister would say. I bet they were planning on releasing it next week under normal circumstances

The video is just a redux of the Joe The Plumper stuff. That came out before one of the debates and had no impact.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
RDreamer said:
I can't believe that Wisconsin poll. If that's true then that's insane. Romney and his superPACs are bombarding Obama like mad here, and there's pretty much 0 pushback on the TV from Obama. If he's still winning by a lot, then there's no way Romney's taking this state.



Holy crap. He's dodging like crazy there. He's trying to play a nice guy while silently acknowledging he totally does think that half this nation are moochers.
Click to expand...


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T

teiresias

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I agree with this. I think they assumed, as I did, that this would be a close race going into October, and they'd drop the video in late September so ensure it was brought up in the first debate. Now...madness and stupidity, as Tywin Lannister would say. I bet they were planning on releasing it next week under normal circumstances

The video is just a redux of the Joe The Plumper stuff. That came out before one of the debates and had no impact.
Click to expand...

Is it unusual for a campaign to bank on there even being an October surprise that's in their favour? It seems like it would be a sign of a horribly run campaign if you don't have a message strategy that doesn't rely on some potential out-of-the-blue October surprise (or even one you manufacture yourself).
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday showed that more than two in five registered voters, or 43 percent, viewed Romney less favorably after an excerpt of the video was shown to them online.

In the video, Romney portrayed Democratic President Barack Obama's supporters - which he said was 47 percent of the electorate - as people who live off government handouts and do not "care for their lives."

Nearly six in ten, or 59 percent, in the poll said they felt Romney unfairly dismissed almost half of Americans as victims in his remarks made to donors in May at a private event at a luxury home in Florida.

"This isn't great for Romney," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark, who called the video an image problem for the Republican.

"This type of issue, a gaffe or an indiscreet remark by a candidate, has an effect on a candidate's image, but it is not the kind of thing that decides how people vote on Election Day," she said.

A Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll taken over the previous four days showed Obama ahead of the former private equity executive by 5 points among likely voters on Wednesday, up slightly from a 4-point lead on Tuesday. If elections were held today, Obama would win 48 percent of the vote to Romney's 43 percent, the poll showed.

There was some good news for Romney. Forty-one percent of the respondents to the poll about the video clip felt the former Massachusetts governor was making an important point about the U.S. government.

And 26 percent said his remarks made them feel more favorable about Romney, with less than seven weeks to go before the election.

More than a quarter of those who viewed the tape - 27 percent - said they felt Romney was being unfairly attacked for a private statement to his own supporters. But 73 percent disagreed, saying all his comments should be subject to public scrutiny because he is a presidential candidate.

Romney targeted 47 percent of voters in his comments, but a large majority in the poll - 67 percent - said they identified more with the people he was talking about than with the wealthy donors he was addressing.

Thirty three percent of respondents identified more with Romney's audience at the $50,000 per person fundraising dinner.

The poll surveyed 1,197 likely voters about their voting intentions from September 15-19. There were 869 registered voters polled about the video.

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of 3.2 percentage points for likely voters, and 3.8 points for the registered voters who answered the video questions.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88I1E920120919

Devastating
 
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