Byakuya769
Member
Nope, eye is on the exit.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
- Thread starter pigeon
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Nope, eye is on the exit.
Sarcasm?
If Obama gets re-elected and the GOP takes back the Senate they'll probably try to impeach his ass.
If there's been a genuine shift, boy howdy. In addition to the recent polls in MA and VA, the Senate is looking safer. Although as Pigeon noted, there seems to be a disparity in the sampling methods which give pause; this would explain the recent discordant results. But if Obama's faring better in samples which incorporate cell phones and live interviews, and it seems he is, the positive results are probably legitimate.
He's sold his amiability well lately.
Yeah, there's that and Gallup's tracking poll is so delayed it's basically useless in the short-term.
The other thing is the switch from RV --> LV is probably eating a little of Obama's upward move... most of the pre-convention polls were RVs.
Please calm down.
RustyNails
Member
Obama is just not sending his Black Panther army out to intimidate pollsters fast enough.
I don't blame him, all the shit he got for something he had absolutely no part of? Shit, they don't pay him enough to deal with more than four years of that. Guy should just go and get a nice cushy board membership for some big company.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Another pic from fundraiser last night.
oh man i bet they're telling a right hilarious good one about hangers-on, good chaps
"and so I said, Brut? Listen that the wall of champagne had better be Moet."
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
please, calm down.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Good thing only one of those is happening!
Honestly the big question to me now is "Can Democrats win back the House." Two years ago I was just hoping Obama would win.
Obama getting impeached will be the October surprise!
thezerofire
Banned
I will say this, Jay-Z knows his way around opulence.I guess this is it:
and has good taste in music, saw him at the xx and Beach House at Coachella a couple years back
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Another pic from fundraiser last night.
three rich folks that have never known struggle or discrimination
They'd have it easy if their parents were Latino.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman's final fuck you.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
He really does not know the law does he.
As I understand it there was no expectation of privacy = not illegal. There was a group of people there.
I miss our resident legal expert E_V
Rich coming from him
Yea this guy is one to talk, Mr Ibrokeintoacongressmansofficetowiretapit.
Pew's last poll was in July, before the conventions. Romney's favorability got a boost on most polls after the RNC -- it just wasn't coupled with a polling bounce.
I honestly can't figure out why Gallup is showing such a discrepancy. It's delayed, but they're showing a week in which Obama stayed strong in Ipsos and in one-shot national polls, and yet he's grounded. I mean, I guess it could just be sampling error as noted, but Gallup is supposed to be pretty good, I hear.
Well, he'd know.
That's fucking rich coming from him.
StopMakingSense
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
I await Eznark's response
Zero Hero
Member
He really does not know the law does he.
As I understand it there was no expectation of privacy = not illegal. There was a group of people there.
I miss our resident legal expert E_V
Three points: does Romney have a reasonable expectation of privacy in a closed party? Does he have a reasonable expectation of not being recorded in a world of smart phones? Does the First Amendment protect a viewer recording his remarks and distributing them as freedom of the press?
http://angryblackladychronicles.com...mitt-romney-violate-florida-wiretapping-laws/
Mother Jones is covered either way, of course.
Well, he definitely knows the law then.
StopMakingSense
Member
I'm more worried he's gonna OD on schadenfreude.
Aaron Strife
Banned
According to RCP Bush had a 7 point lead to Obama's 3 point lead (avg).
Kerry made up a lot of ground in the debates which is probably what Romney is hoping for. Too bad Romney is much worse than Kerry and Obama is much better than Bush.
Black Mamba
Member
1st amendment does not apply in a civil matter. Each state has its own laws regarding taping. Which states was this done in? I know the law in California very well as I'm sort of [indirectly] involved in a lawsuit involving an illegal recording between parties, one of the few California seems to have had.
edit: I see it's Florida.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Aren't recordings cool if one of the persons knows they're being recorded?
Looking back at the 2004 chart, you could tell it'd be close by looking at the trendline all year. Bush and Kerry kept trading the lead in the spring and summer, and in the end it was Bush's campaign and messaging that pushed him over the top at the end. Romney though has never had the lead this year.
StopMakingSense
Member
Varies by state. MA is 2 party state.
Black Mamba
Member
And doesn't tell the person to turn it off, sure. Otherwise, depends on state laws.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Sometimes that is applicable, 90% of the time, it is not.
Red Blaster
Member
Around this time in 2004 Kerry was getting shellacked by the swiftboaters and was unable to recover even with good debate performances
Aaron Strife
Banned
Scott Brown won't say if he still supports Romney for president. Abort, abort!
I learned that the hard way in 2010.
I forget who said it - if your argument is based on the polls being wrong, you're probably losing.ivysaur12 said:
I learned that the hard way in 2010.
Here's Pew Research on the topic:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2322/pa...survey-identification-unweighted-distribution
edit:
Holy shit, they did ask him if he'd vote for Romney and he said "Maybe." AMAZING
That was either Nate or Yglesias, but I forget which and it's back in the Twitter backlog farther than I was willing to look.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
He has nothing to gain by saying that he does. Absolutely nothing. He is running as a democrat, while Elizabeth Warren is running as a moderate Republican. We have now entered bizzaro-world.
This time, the challenger is shellacking himself, haha..
worldrunover
Member
Haha, sounds like that awesome tweet that was criticizing the polls because they were interviewing more people that will vote for Obama.
It was sarcasm, but it was so awesome I thought it was real.
I feel like this line by Romney was just so ignorant, like, doesn't he realize if his parents were Mexican that his father wouldn't have BEEN a governor in the 1960s? And how much harder his life would have been, and how he probably WOULDN'T be in the position he is now, based on all of that? It's so tone deaf it drives me crazy.
Not that we needed it, but it confirms the recent polling. Dude's running scared.
Another MA poll due out today, according to Chuck Todd. Good grief!
Yeah that was my mistake. I've seen that exact argument make the rounds. :lol
hydragonwarrior
Member
Yeah, this is the most concerning thing for me.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Brown - Warren debate on Thursday? That could be interesting.
He can gain staying on the good side of the GOP establishment.
It's true that Romney might end being such a disaster that people will forgive those who didn't endorse him, but generally, it's not something the powers that be tend to look favorably on.
I also think that the electorate will not be too excited if he's wishy washy on the issue, had he endorsed Obama, I'm sure it would've helped in the polls, but doing that crap?
Pretending that you don't know who are you personally going to vote for?
I don't see it helping him all that much.
But the main takeaways I have from this are -
a. Brown is worried.
b. Brown thinks that Romney's chances are not too hot.
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