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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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B

Brinbe

Member
Yep, and he's p. close to establishing a guaranteed path to victory as it is. Courtesy NBC News
*** Obama’s battleground edge grows: In NBC's first battleground map since the conventions and a slew of new state polling, President Obama has expanded his electoral-vote lead over Mitt Romney -- but only slightly. There are now 243 electoral votes in Obama’s column and 191 in Romney’s, with 104 in the Toss-up category; 270 are needed to win the presidency. Last month, before the conventions, the president was ahead 237-191. The one change: We've moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean Obama based on our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls and our conversations with the campaigns. Perhaps in no other state outside of Ohio and Virginia has Obama done more physical campaigning than in Iowa, and it appears to have paid off. Since April, he’s made seven visits and held 15 different events in the state, compared with Romney’s seven visits but just seven events. Re-read the comparison again -- this is a regular discrepancy between the Obama and Romney campaigns. The president packs in a lot more events, on average, when he visits a battleground state than Romney does.
Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
Lean Dem: IA, ME (1 EV) MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, PA (79)
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI (104)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IN, MO, NE (I EV) (49)
Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, LA, MS, MT, ND, SC, SD, TX (79)
Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (63)
Click to expand...
If they've really secured Iowa, that p. much closes off the route to 270 for Romney. Based on other recent polling the bolded states there look to be secure for the Dems as it is, so at a minimum we're looking at
g1qbm.png

so gg Romney. Smart of them to concentrate heavily in Iowa, but that's why they're a top-notch campaign team.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I don't think Obama wins NC. The unemployment rate there is like the highest in the country. That said, Romney having to spend resources there can't hurt
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Brinbe said:
Yep, and he's p. close to establishing a guaranteed path to victory as it is. Courtesy NBC News

If they've really secured Iowa, that p. much closes off the route to 270 for Romney. Based on other recent polling the bolded states there look to be secure for the Dems as it is, so at a minimum we're looking at
g1qbm.png

so gg Romney. Smart of them to concentrate heavily in Iowa, but that's why they're a top-notch campaign team.
Click to expand...

YTF is Romney in New York?

Obama is stomping through Virginia, and Romney is in a state he has no chance of winning.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Virgil Goode to remain on VA ballot

RICHMOND, Va. --

Constitution Party presidential candidate and former 5th District congressman Virgil Goode will remain on Virginia's presidential ballot this November.

A review by the office of Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli of Goode's petitions has found that while there were irregularities found in some of the petitions submitted to the State Board of Elections, they do not rise to the level that would disqualify Goode from being on the ballot.

The attorney general's finding, expected to be announced later today, comes at a critical time -- 45 days before the Nov. 6 election and with tomorrow being the the day local registrars must begin mailing absentee ballots to registered voters. The Republican Party of Virginia had challenged Goode's petitions, saying irregularities should disqualify him from being on the ballot in Virginia -- a swing state considered critical to GOP chances of electing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to the White House.

Political observers say Goode's popularity in Southside Virginia could siphon votes from Romney in November, and in a close contest, potentially swing the commonwealth and its 13 electoral votes for President Barack Obama.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Dr. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, have also submitted signatures to be on the Virginia ballot.

Candidates must submit at least 10,000 valid signatures -- including 400 from each of the state's 11 congressional districts -- to qualify for the presidential ballot. Goode submitted nearly 20,000.

At the time of the challenge, Goode, represented the 5th District from 1997 to 2009, asserted he had committed no fraud and was confident in his petitions and the integrity of his candidacy.

Cuccinelli, too, had also promised an impartial review and said he would be "absolutely objective" about Goode's case and not swayed by political pressures or preferences. The attorney general is among a number of high profile Virginia politicians who have hit the stump for Romney in Virginia and beyond.

"Nobody is going to get any advantage or disadvantage," he said, calling such considerations "utterly irrelevant" to the work of his office. "We'll call it like we see it."
Click to expand...
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/...ain-ballot-presidential-candidate-ar-2223351/

secretly i think Ken Cuccinelli and the Gov could give two fucks about Romney anyways lol
 
M

markatisu

Member
Black Republican said:
Siren

RT @JohnJHarwood: Remarkable in @WSJ: IA Dems have requested 100K absentee ballots, Repubs 16K. Ex-IA GOP pol director Craig Robinson: "I grimace a little."
Click to expand...

Not surprising, when we stood in line to see Obama last month for 2hrs his people registered virtually every in line for absentee ballots

His campaign is like a well oiled machine

Told you guys he was going to win Iowa
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Measley said:
YTF is Romney in New York?

Obama is stomping through Virginia, and Romney is in a state he has no chance of winning.
Click to expand...

Fundraising? When you don't have small donors, you gotta raise more money from big donors. Also, isn't the Clinton Global Initiative thing this weekend? I'm pretty sure both guys are speaking there
 
T

Tim-E

Member
F

Frank the Great

Banned
anyone know how voter ID laws affect absentee ballots?

if it is really easier for poor folks and elderly to just mail in a ballot without having to produce ID, future democratic campaigns should really focus on getting people to submit absentee. this would be easier than getting them to produce a birth certificate, passport, etc. to get an ID. the suppression of the voter ID laws would be neutralized.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
can you imagine what obama's margin would be if he actually, gasp, followed through on his promises such as bringing unemployment down to 6%, curbing the rise of the oceans, and closing gitmo? obama lucks out again with a subpar opponent.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Incognito said:
can you imagine what obama's margin would be if he actually, gasp, followed through on his promises such as bringing unemployment down to 6%, curbing the rise of the oceans, and closing gitmo? obama lucks out again with a subpar opponent.
Click to expand...
As long as the GOP remains out of touch to average Americans, this will continue to happen. Romney's the most left-leaning/central figure they've got. With all of his (many) flaws, it doesn't get much better than this.
 
Vestal

Vestal

Junior Member
SmokeMaxX said:
As long as the GOP remains out of touch to average Americans, this will continue to happen. Romney's the most left-leaning/central figure they've got. With all of his (many) flaws, it doesn't get much better than this.
Click to expand...

He was.. but he flipflopped on his Centrist Image as soon as this primary started. He went NUTJOB in the primaries and has remained as such
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Vestal said:
He was.. but he flipflopped on his Centrist Image as soon as this primary started. He went NUTJOB in the primaries and has remained as such
Click to expand...

Which should tell you something, if you want a clinton or Obama esque moderate who can win, you shouldn't let your nutjobs control the primary process.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
Herman Cain took a shot at Mitt Romney on Friday, stating that if he were the Republican presidential nominee, he would have a "substantial lead" over President Barack Obama.

“The reason is quite simple: I have some depth to my ideas," Cain told a crowd of more than 300 at the University of Florida as part of his “College Truth Tour.”

Romney has faced widespread criticism within his own party for what some characterize as a failure to offer any specific ideas and running instead as simply the "anti-Obama." That seemed to change Monday, when his campaign announced a shift in strategy and pledged to lay out in more detail what a Romney presidency would look like.

But the Romney campaign was quickly derailed when a secret video was uncovered from a private fundraiser held in May, in which the GOP nominee was seen telling donors that 47 percent of Americans back Obama because they are "dependent on government" and "believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing."

Cain defended Romney against those comments, calling the controversy a "non-story" and blaming the media for blowing it out of proportion. The former Republican presidential candidate expressed interest in changing the media, adding that he had no interest in a position in a Romney administration but would rather pursue his own radio or television show.

“If I can't convert (the media), I'm going to join them,” Cain said.
Click to expand...

L



O



L!
 
E

Effect

Member
Black Republican said:
91% AZ say they made up their mind, 7% undecided though
Click to expand...

Obama really should make a play for it. If only to make republicans defend it and pull resources from other locations. They can't afford to potentially lose the state.

I recall last election that if McCain wasn't running it was said that Obama would have had a good chance of getting the state.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Rasmussen effect on TPM Polltracker is pretty hilarious right now. 1.5% swing (O+3.7 / O+5.2) with/without them. Ras alone is responsible for the apparent regression on the trend line.


"Counting chickens before they hatch" post above--yes, this is probably a surge or bounce to a degree, though I expect it to get larger next week as the 47% stuff (which really seems to be sticking) works its way in. And it will likely contract somewhat during the debates. Be prepared for "comeback?" articles when Romney manages to not accidentally light himself on fire during the first debate and his numbers marginally improve. But I think the hole is getting too deep to dig himself out of and I'm expecting Obama to really pull away for good in the two weeks before the election.
 
G

Guevara

Member
Real article or Onion article:
In a speech at the University of Florida on Thursday, Cain said that if he had been the nominee he’d have a “substantial lead” over Barack Obama. And what is his reason? “The reason is quite simple: I have some depth to my ideas.”

“Stupid people are ruining America, and we’ve got to take it back,” Cain said in the speech, which was part of his “College Truth Tour.”

The Gainesville Sun reports that Cain ended his speech by singing “Believe in Yourself” from the movie “The Wiz.”
Click to expand...

(real)
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Rasmussen effect on TPM Polltracker is pretty hilarious right now. 1.5% swing (O+3.7 / O+5.2) with/without them. Ras alone is responsible for the apparent regression on the trend line.


"Counting chickens before they hatch" post above--yes, this is probably a surge or bounce to a degree, though I expect it to get larger next week as the 47% stuff (which really seems to be sticking) works its way in. And it will likely contract somewhat during the debates. Be prepared for "comeback?" articles when Romney manages to not accidentally light himself on fire during the first debate and his numbers marginally improve. But I think the hole is getting too deep to dig himself out of and I'm expecting Obama to really pull away for good in the two weeks before the election.
Click to expand...

Gallup is really the biggest outlier here, as a few people have been writing about. As Nate Cohn noted, everybody would be ignoring it if it weren't called Gallup -- and contrariwise, if Gallup were aligning with the other non-Ras polls, there would be no question that Obama was running away with it. But hey, even Gallup isn't perfect. Silver notes that if the polls look like this next week, it's basically over.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Herman Cain also told us he has secret info that these riots in the Middle East will somehow lead to those countries leaders telling OPEC to not sell us oil.
 
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