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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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T

Thequietone

Member
Unfortunately I agree with PD. When Obama wins the republicans will continue to block everything they can. Not much Obama can do about it until the democrats gain more seats. I'd like to be wrong though because the republicans are acting like children.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
Unless, of course, they lose the House by even a single seat.
Click to expand...

They won't lose the house thanks to redistricting/gerrymandering

Let's say dems lower the margin to 10-15 seats. That would certainly make things easier for Obama/harder for Boehner; Boehner would have to carry his entire caucus to get stuff done, and the more moderate/old school members could pose a problem. But even that won't get a tax raise passed, or a jobs bill approved without some ridiculous spending cut requirement.
 
R

RobotChant

Member
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
Redistricting's going to be a net wash, and especially so after Issue 2 passes in Ohio
Click to expand...

It'll go into effect before the election?

The problem here is that republicans took complete control of multiple state governments in 2010. They therefore write the rules and have given themselves a favorable playing field for November; I don't say that to suggest it's something new, both parties do this. Because of this it'll be very hard for democrats to win 25 seats, or even 10. To make matters worse, multiple house seats are being financed by PAC money.

The only way dems retake the house is if the economy recovers, and old people realize Obamacare won't kill them afterall. But that won't happen until 2014.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It'll go into effect before the election?
Click to expand...

It won't, but it'll definitely nullify any effect on Ohio's House delegation this year.

Because of this it'll be very hard for democrats to win 25 seats, or even 10.
Click to expand...

Even with gratuitous gerrymandering there's still between 30 and 55 'swing' seats the GOP needs to defend, in states that are increasingly moving against them at every other level for this year's election, and it's all kinds of farcical to claim it's more than a wash that they'll hold on to enough of those.

To make matters worse, multiple house seats are being financed by PAC money.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and we're seeing just what good that PAC money's doing for them elsewhere.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Not to beat a dead horse but I think this guy's got a better track record than you do.

I'm not as bullish as he is but I think the possibility of a House takeover is very real and vastly understated by pundits.
Click to expand...

I think 30% chance of dem takeover and that only if Romney continues to be a weak candidate driving turnout down among republicans.

While they guy has a good track record, I think you have to look at district level polling because of the redistricting.
 
D

Diablos

Member
According to a new Zogby Poll the wheels are close to coming off the Romney campaign. President Obama leads Mitt Romney among NASCAR fans, 48%-41%.

The Zogby poll revealed that President Obama has a seven point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, 48%-41%, and even larger nine point lead when all candidates are included, 49%-40%. The real shocker is that the poll found the president doing very well with some traditionally thought of Republican voting blocs.
Click to expand...

http://www.politicususa.com/wheels-fall-romney-obama-leads-nascar-fans-48-41.html


aahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaa

OBAMA IS LEADING AMONG NASCAR FANS.

Holllly shit.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
that's a zogby interactive poll, probably the only polling outfit more worthless than pre-october rasmussen (e: and 2010 aaron strife, and soon 2012 me)
Click to expand...
My polls were very scientific. I asked everyone in my neighborhood if they were voting for Russ Feingold and they all said yes. If he ran in Minnesota he would have won!

cartoon_soldier said:
I think 30% chance of dem takeover and that only if Romney continues to be a weak candidate driving turnout down among republicans.

While they guy has a good track record, I think you have to look at district level polling because of the redistricting.
Click to expand...
District polls are more important, but if the generic ballot preference is big enough it'll overcome the gerrymandering.

The thing is if Obama's coattails do produce a wave for Democrats, they will pick up districts they have no business winning in, just like in 2006 and 2008. If I had to pull a number out of my ass I'd say it's 50/50.

The consensus was reached very late in 2006 that Democrats would win the House, and it was still a huge surprise. I could see that happening here.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
This has to be one of my favorite polling analysis articles of the entire election cycle.

http://www.examiner.com/article/mit...key-swing-states-shown-by-purple-poll-surveys

Mitt Romney likely win of five key swing states shown by Purple Poll surveys

8e2ae488a4bdd5d64f14b7d8b014cfd3.jpg


My new favorite polling analyst said:
The bipartisan polling firm Purple Strategies has released today the latest Purple Poll surveys in five key swing states that show them all close. The surveys, conducted recently and released today for Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina reveal data that show Mitt Romney will win these states over President Obama and is quite likely to win the presidency in November.

As always the analysis here is not merely a static regurgitation of numbers that assumes in a simplistic manner that a state favoring Obama by a 46 percent to 44 percent edge will necessarily be voting for Obama on election day as many of the non-thinking analysts choose to suppose. We know, and former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris reminds us, that the undecided vote swings overwhelmingly for the challenging candidate, or in this election, Mitt Romney. For the purpose of their analysis, precise calculations will be made from the polling data and the undecided voters will be calculated to go 80 percent for Romney. Odds are likely they will support Romney in higher percentages.
Click to expand...

If the GOP base is as deluded as the article's author, we're in for a truly monumental treat on Election Night.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
HylianTom said:
If the GOP base is as deluded as the article's author, we're in for a truly monumental treat on Election Night.
Click to expand...

I think I've come up with a pretty ingenious way to test someone's conviction on Romney's election odds:


On election day, get together with friends of both parties and bring copies of a blank United States map. Have everyone color each state red or blue to indicate which way they think the states will go. As the results come up, every participant has to take a shot of the poison of their choice for every state that they get wrong. I think it would teach some republican pals a very important lesson on being realistic and/or actually researching things.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Maybe it's you who are the deluded one!

Rasmussen says... wait, fuck, Obama's ahead on rasmussen.

They've just succumbed to the liberal agenda!
Click to expand...

:p

I've just googled ths guy's website, "Unskewed Polls," only to find that there is an entire universe of GOP blogs and forums that are unhesitatingly reporting this stuff as fact. FuckFrance, RedState, PatriotsForAmerica, Darwincentral (ha!), Lucianne, etc. They seem so incredibly confident..
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I think I've come up with a pretty ingenious way to test someone's conviction on Romney's election odds:


On election day, get together with friends of both parties and bring copies of a blank United States map. Have everyone color each state red or blue to indicate which way they think the states will go. As the results come up, every participant has to take a shot of the poison of their choice for every state that they get wrong. I think it would teach some republican pals a very important lesson on being realistic and/or actually researching things.
Click to expand...
You could make it shots.

They're gonna need'm.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
There's almost no way for Romney to win a blowout under normal circumstances (ie economy remains shitty, neither candidate implodes); his best chance is a 2004 type victory. I still think Romney can win and am not changing my bet, but it's not looking good.

It's interesting seeing republicans create their own reality, polling wise. Drudge ignored Gallup for weeks, and of course there was the story about them being bullied by Axelrod...now the polls are close and it's the only poll (alongside Ras) that Drudge highlights. PPP retweets a lot of nasty stuff from conservatives attacking their polling results. I think the denial is going to last up to election eve, even if the polls stay like this. Everyone pretty much knew McCain was going to lose in October. If we get a similar October (ie Romney clearly down 4-6 points) I really think the right will continue believing polls are wrong. Which means we'll get a complete meltdown on November 6th, and maybe even some violence

Things are going to get real ugly if Obama wins. I think it's very important that the republican party be completely rejected. Clearly they're already setting the stage to argue a Romney loss does not mean the country rejected their ideas - just a bad candidate who wasn't conservative enough. If republicans lose a lot of seats in the house (but not enough to lose control) and get beaten back in the senate, perhaps the message will get through that the 2010 wave has been rejected. But if Romney loses big while republicans only lose 4-6 house seats (as Sabato predicts), expect a lot of spinning from the far right. And complaining about the media/voter fraud
 
A

Averon

Member
The GOP and its base are so entrenched in their own reality that anything that runs counter to it (such as the notion of Obama winning, Obama leading in polls, etc...) MUST be wrong, a liberal plot, a conspiracy by the media, or some combination thereof.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
HylianTom said:
This has to be one of my favorite polling analysis articles of the entire election cycle.

http://www.examiner.com/article/mit...key-swing-states-shown-by-purple-poll-surveys

Mitt Romney likely win of five key swing states shown by Purple Poll surveys

8e2ae488a4bdd5d64f14b7d8b014cfd3.jpg




If the GOP base is as deluded as the article's author, we're in for a truly monumental treat on Election Night.
Click to expand...

Why aren't Wisconsin and Michigan highlighted? I guess Romney is so far ahead there they aren't swing states anymore.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Basileus777 said:
Why aren't Wisconsin and Michigan highlighted? I guess Romney is so far ahead there they aren't swing states anymore.
Click to expand...
Yeah I don't think Obama's team is even counting on winning those anymore. If they don't win Florida they're screwed!

If you switch Obama for Romney it stops being snark
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I don't believe that. Another debt ceiling gamble, a government shut down, refusal to pass anything outside of appropriations...there is plenty the GOP can do to stall the economy.
Click to expand...

Debt ceiling crisis will have them lose the house in 2014 badly. Like, very badly.

Sure, they could shut down the gov't. But I bet they want to keep their jobs. Any stalling they do will still have to be politically feasible. And they don't have to the tools to do that and make the economy shit.

Blocking new stuff won't fuck the economy. It won't help, but the economy will be back in 4 years and they can't stop it without killing all their power.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
HylianTom said:
This has to be one of my favorite polling analysis articles of the entire election cycle.

http://www.examiner.com/article/mit...key-swing-states-shown-by-purple-poll-surveys

Mitt Romney likely win of five key swing states shown by Purple Poll surveys

8e2ae488a4bdd5d64f14b7d8b014cfd3.jpg




If the GOP base is as deluded as the article's author, we're in for a truly monumental treat on Election Night.
Click to expand...

This idiot ignored 3rd party, as well. Everything is either Obama or Romney. As if Gary Johnson won't do anything. Even 1% hurts Mitt.

That's besides the rest of his garbage assumptions.

Purple Poll's Ohio numbers show Obama's best numbers of the five states, where he leads over Romney 48 percent to 44 percent but still well under the magic number of 50 percent. His job performance is disapproved by 47 percent and Obama is approved of by 46 percent. In Ohio, the telling right direction and wrong direction measure goes 37 percent to 54 percent. That 54 percent remain not good news for the president. The calculation of the undecided for Ohio indicates that Romney would win the state 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent for Obama.
Click to expand...

Look at this math! 80% of undecideds break with Romney? In what fucking world does this happen? lol. the salty tears. There will be many and they will be glorious.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Black Mamba said:
This idiot ignored 3rd party, as well. Everything is either Obama or Romney. As if Gary Johnson won't do anything. Even 1% hurts Mitt.

That's besides the rest of his garbage assumptions.
Click to expand...
Well it's pretty clear Gary Johnson will win, we're just having fun debating who will place 2nd.

In all seriousness he'll pull evenly from Mitt and Barack, so I don't see him having a profound impact on the election.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
The alternate polling reality that conservatives inhabit is frightening. If Obama wins we'll at least see a tea party style movement yet again. The American people usually isn't one to actually revolt and do damage, but nonetheless it's worrying.

And on the debates:
The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.
Click to expand...
The deification of the independent/swing/undecided voter continues.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Well it's pretty clear Gary Johnson will win, we're just having fun debating who will place 2nd.

In all seriousness he'll pull evenly from Mitt and Barack, so I don't see him having a profound impact on the election.
Click to expand...

Evenly? I very much doubt that. Gary Johnson is libertarian and the only a few liberals who are anti-drug war (and is top 3 on their list) along with anti-foreign policy will vote for him. Everyone else will be from the Republican base (among those that rarely vote 3rd party).

Every poll I've seen that lists Gary Johnson on the ballot, including swing states, creates a bigger lead for Obama.


Anyway:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/23/romney-blames-obama-for-his-campaign-challenges/

An entire article filled with Romney whining about the Obama campaign.

Two gem:

Speaking to reporters as his private charter plane flew from Los Angeles to Denver, Mr. Romney blamed his relatively languid campaign schedule — five public events in the past seven days, compared with 11 fund-raisers — on the president’s decision to opt out of the federal campaign finance system four years ago, and criticized Mr. Obama for, he said, “trying to fool people into thinking that I think things I don’t.”
Click to expand...

“I think that the president’s campaign has focused its advertising in many cases on very inaccurate portrayals of my positions,” he said.
Click to expand...

WAAAAH WAAAAAH. HE'S DOING WHAT I'M DOING. NO FAIR. WAAAAAH.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Romney said:
“I think that the president’s campaign has focused its advertising in many cases on very inaccurate portrayals of my positions,” he said.
Click to expand...

Obama didn't build that strategy.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Guys if I read Freerepublic every day I would not vote for Obama.

For example this article:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/20...s-for-supporting-obamacares-cuts-to-medicare/

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the Medigap reforms that AARP blocked would have saved the average senior as much as $415 in premiums per year.

But the AARP aggressively, and successfully, lobbied to keep Medigap reforms out of Obamacare, because AARP receives a 4.95 percent royalty on every dollar that seniors spend on its Medigap plans. Reform, DeMint estimates, would have cost AARP $1.8 billion over ten years.

Not only did AARP succeed in getting Democrats to balk at Medigap reform. Obamacare’s cuts to Medicare Advantage will drive many seniors out of that program, and into traditional government-run Medicare, which will increase the number of people who need Medigap insurance.
Click to expand...

It gets worse. AARP Medigap plans are exempted from most of Obamacare’s best-known insurance mandates. AARP Medigap plans are exempted from the ban that requires insurers to take all comers, regardless of pre-existing conditions. The plans are exempted from the $500,000 cap on insurance industry executive compensation; top AARP executives currently make more than $1 million. AARP plans are exempt from the premium tax levied on other private insurers. IPAB, Medicare’s rationing board, is explicitly barred from altering Medicare’s cost-sharing provisions, provisions that govern the existence of Medigap plans.

And AARP Medigap plans are allowed to have twice the administrative costs that other private insurers are allowed under Obamacare’s medical loss ratio regulations. This last point is key, because AARP’s 4.95 percent royalty is a significant administrative cost.
Click to expand...
When I read something like that, it sounds pretty bad form. I'm sure every legislation has some bad sides to it, and Obamacare is far from the ideal legislation a liberal would want, but especially the last quotes seem pretty damning.

Edit: The not vote for Obama is obviously just an exageration, but still.
 
A

Averon

Member
Black Mamba said:
Evenly? I very much doubt that. Gary Johnson is libertarian and the only a few liberals who are anti-drug war (and is top 3 on their list) along with anti-foreign policy will vote for him. Everyone else will be from the Republican base (among those that rarely vote 3rd party).

Every poll I've seen that lists Gary Johnson on the ballot, including swing states, creates a bigger lead for Obama.


Anyway:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/23/romney-blames-obama-for-his-campaign-challenges/

An entire article filled with Romney whining about the Obama campaign.

Two gem:





WAAAAH WAAAAAH. HE'S DOING WHAT I'M DOING. NO FAIR. WAAAAAH.
Click to expand...

Romney's whining because his opponent isn't making it easy for him?

Is he for real? This sounds like someone who got everything handed to him. He sounds like someone who's experiencing their first time actually having to fight for something.
 
W

watershed

Banned
Losing campaigns whine and winning campaigns are effective at doing things to make losing campaigns whine.

But according to Romney he doesn't pay much attention to the polls and he's actually up in some of them!
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
That Mitt Romney campaign representative on Meet the Press was hilarious. Her spinning of the polls in particular was precious.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
I flipped to 60 Minutes last night because a friend wanted to catch Romney's interview. Paraphrasing a bit -

Questioner: What would your strategy be to temper anti-American sentiment throughout the Middle East?

Romney: We need to make it clear to Egypt that they must abide by their peace accord signed with Israel and to further respect human rights....
Click to expand...
I changed channels right at that moment. He's a god damn clown with a suddenly nice tan.

It's odd how Romney seems almost disrespectful towards Obama because he isn't simply handing the Presidency over to him. It's as if Romney believes POTUS should be his by birthright, and the fact that Obama is actually making him work for it is disgraceful.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Amir0x said:
That Mitt Romney campaign representative on Meet the Press was hilarious. Her spinning of the polls in particular was precious.
Click to expand...

Greggers had one of his rare moments of not being a completely shitty interviewer too, with Kelly Ayotte.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
A

Arrowgigantic

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Well it's pretty clear Gary Johnson will win, we're just having fun debating who will place 2nd.

In all seriousness he'll pull evenly from Mitt and Barack, so I don't see him having a profound impact on the election.
Click to expand...
Even accepting your hypothesis about who he pulls from, you're leaving out that there are 3rd party candidates who will get more votes than him, namely Virgil Goode and, not kidding, Jesus. They aren't going to be pulling any votes off of Obama.

How crushed are libertarians going to be when Jesus gets more write-in votes than on-the-ballot-in-47-states Gary Johnson?
 
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