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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Jackson50 said:
The We Ask America poll also estimates Baldwin is leading Thompson 52-40. It's probably well above the average. Nonetheless, Baldwin is clearly winning now.
Click to expand...
But Thompson is a former moderate governor beloved by all! Surely he'll win in a landslide victory over that Madison liberal.

(I'm enjoying this)
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
So the new foreign policy thing is GOP attacking Obama government for saying they had no intelligence reports on an impending attack on the embassy. A few days later they said they believe it was a terror attack though.

I don't see anything contradictory here, the mistake they made is calling the attack unplanned which may or may not be the case.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/hillary-clinton-aide-tells-reporter-to-fuck-off

Romney hits Obama on "bumps in the road" tells me "it’s pretty clear the WH jumped the gun" in casting Libya attack as unplanned.
Click to expand...
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
This Unskewed Polls phenomenon is fascinating. The wholesale rejection of reality and facts taken to an unprecedented level. Just... Wow.

It's just a ready-to-bake mix for the subsequent conspiracy theory that Obama manipulated ever polling station in the country to fall in line with their coerced poll numbers leading up to election day when it turns out Romney is not in fact 8 points ahead...
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Faaaantastic...

qCCK7.png
 
P

pigeon

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
So the new foreign policy thing is GOP attacking Obama government for saying they had no intelligence reports on an impending attack on the embassy. A few days later they said they believe it was a terror attack though.

I don't see anything contradictory here, the mistake they made is calling the attack unplanned which may or may not be the case.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/hillary-clinton-aide-tells-reporter-to-fuck-off
Click to expand...

Amazing that the lede doesn't mention the fact that Reines called Hastings an asshole only after Hastings said "Why don't you give answers that aren't bullshit for a change?"

Brinbe said:
Faaaantastic...
Click to expand...

Striking distance.
in Montana
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Mike M said:
This Unskewed Polls phenomenon is fascinating. The wholesale rejection of reality and facts taken to an unprecedented level. Just... Wow.

It's just a ready-to-bake mix for the subsequent conspiracy theory that Obama manipulated ever polling station in the country to fall in line with their coerced poll numbers leading up to election day when it turns out Romney is not in fact 8 points ahead...
Click to expand...

Well, I mean, Republicans have spent the last 20 years saying the media is The Liberal Media. It was inevitable that they eventually extend that to polls as well.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Last few polls for NC:

Code: 
Purple Strategies 		9/19 	48.0 	46.0 	Obama +2.0
High Point University 		9/18 	48.0 	44.0 	Obama +4.0
YouGov 				9/14 	44.0 	45.0 	Romney +1.0
Rasmussen 			9/13 	45.0 	51.0 	Romney +6.0
PPP 				9/9 	49.0 	48.0 	Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA 			9/6 	43.0 	53.0 	Romney +10.0
PPP 				9/2 	48.0 	48.0 	Tie
High Point University 		8/30 	43.0 	46.0 	Romney +3.0
Elon 				8/30 	43.0 	47.0 	Romney +4.0
CNN/Time/Opinion Research 	8/26 	47.0 	48.0 	Romney +1.0

In other words: nobody has a fucking clue.

Also, SurveyUSA and Rasmussen: lol.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
reilo said:
Last few polls for NC:

Code: 
Purple Strategies 		9/19 	48.0 	46.0 	Obama +2.0
High Point University 		9/18 	48.0 	44.0 	Obama +4.0
YouGov 				9/14 	44.0 	45.0 	Romney +1.0
Rasmussen 			9/13 	45.0 	51.0 	Romney +6.0
PPP 				9/9 	49.0 	48.0 	Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA 			9/6 	43.0 	53.0 	Romney +10.0
PPP 				9/2 	48.0 	48.0 	Tie
High Point University 		8/30 	43.0 	46.0 	Romney +3.0
Elon 				8/30 	43.0 	47.0 	Romney +4.0
CNN/Time/Opinion Research 	8/26 	47.0 	48.0 	Romney +1.0

In other words: nobody has a fucking clue.

Also, SurveyUSA and Rasmussen: lol.
Click to expand...

Definitely trending toward toss-up though.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Clevinger said:
Which pollster is the really terrible one? American Research Group or SurveyUSA? Or is it both? I can't remember.
Click to expand...
ARG is usually right-leaning, though SurveyUSA puts out some wacky results every so often. The +10 in NC for Romney for example comes from one-third of black respondents in that poll going for Romney, which no one is expecting anywhere.
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Jackson50 said:
The We Ask America poll also estimates Baldwin is leading Thompson 52-40. It's probably well above the average. Nonetheless, Baldwin is clearly winning now.
Click to expand...

I'd like to point out that this may be the peak of Baldwins popularity. I'm finally starting to see Thompson ads after Baldwin has been airing hers virtually uncontested since the primaries. I'd expect this race to tighten up again.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Cyan said:
Do you speak IPA?

Using IPA transcription: prIns ribəs
Click to expand...

Neat.

I know Washingtion Times LOOOOLLLL, but this is really messed up and it goes to points I make when I talk about gun control laws. I mean look what has happened to this guy and his family.

Besides both the NAACP and SAF are involved in the matter, so it's not just ranting conservatives. More so he should be protect by a defense in the Firearm Owners Protection Act. When I talk about the issues of Gun Control laws and certain areas that like to ignore people's rights, these are the things I'm talking about

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/23/dc-will-revisit-gun-law-for-outsiders/

....

“These offenses would still be handled the same way by the [Metropolitan Police Department], and violators would still be subject to arrest,” D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson said when he introduced the legislation in July. “This legislation is meant to deal with those cases where individuals may lawfully possess firearms or ammunition in their home states but who unknowingly transport their firearms or ammunition into the District without knowledge of the District’s firearms laws.”

One person with firsthand experience of what Mr. Mendelson describes is Dwayne Hogue, a Maryland resident and a legal gun owner.
Mr. Hogue’s life was turned upside down when he was stopped in the District with a gun in his car and criminally charged. He has been in contact with the Judiciary Committee about his case but does not plan to testify at the hearing Monday.


Wrong side of the line
Mr. Hogue, 43, was a licensed special police officer in the District. The morning of March 28, 2011, he was driving his wife and a friend to the Kmart in Hyattsville where his two passengers planned to apply for jobs, he said. Making the way from his Capitol Heights apartment, Mr. Hogue got lost, he said, and diverted briefly into the District before turning around and heading back into Prince George’s County. He was on Eastern Avenue, the dividing line between the District and Maryland, when a U.S. Park Police officer noticed the dark tint on his windows, according to court documents filed in his case.
The officer ran Mr. Hogue’s tags and found that the car registration was suspended — a result of failure to comply with a repair order issued on his car. The Park Police officer, listed in D.C. Superior Court documents as Jeffrey McKeever, wrote in his report that he sensed Mr. Hogue was nervous, so he inquired further.

“I observed three thin blue line stickers on the vehicle, and could see that he had a security uniform covering the center console of the vehicle,” Officer McKeever wrote. “I asked him where his weapon was and he stated that his gun was in the rear trunk compartment of the vehicle. Once he admitted to the possession of the handgun, he was detained while additional police officers were called to the scene.”

Ammunition was found in the purse of Rochelle Hogue, Mr. Hogue’s wife. Paperwork provided by Mr. Hogue indicated that he purchased the .45 caliber Glock four days earlier from the Maryland Small Arms Range in Upper Marlboro.

“That was a personal weapon that I just bought days before, and I was going to the range to practice with it,” Mr. Hogue said in an interview at his apartment. “My wife was just trying to get a job at Kmart and we made a wrong turn and all this happened.”

Difficult times

It’s unclear whether Mr. Hogue would have been violating Maryland law if he had been stopped just a block away off Eastern Avenue in Prince George’s County. Maryland law requires that guns transported in vehicles must be unloaded, in an enclosed case and kept separate from ammunition. The person transporting the gun must be traveling to or from a specified location.

The arms range is one locations where state law allows legal gun owners to travel with their weapons. Mr. Hogue said the weapon was in a container, although court papers did not specify whether the gun was contained.

Police arrested Mr. Hogue and charged him in the District with possession of an unregistered firearm and unlawful possession of ammunition.

Concerned about jail time and not entirely aware of the repercussions, he said, he pleaded guilty to the gun charge. Mrs. Hogue said her husband felt pressure from his court-appointed attorney to make a deal.

“It was stressful. You think about it, it’s scary. So he got him to plead guilty,” she said.
Steven Polin, Mr. Hogue’s attorney, did not return a call to his office seeking comment about the case.

In July 2011, Mr. Hogue pleaded guilty to possession of an unregistered firearm and was sentenced to six months of supervised probation. As a result, he was required to register on the Metropolitan Police Department’s gun-offender registry.

Mr. Hogue also had to report the incident to the police department’s security officers management branch. He reported the incident immediately, and his special police officer’s commission was revoked on March 29, 2011, according to documentation he provided.

With his police powers revoked and the criminal conviction on his record, Mr. Hogue said, he has been unable to return to the type of security work that has provided him a steady income for 16 years.

“That took the ability for me to support my family,” he said. “Since then, financially, we’ve been going through hard times.”
His family, including his wife, three children, ages 7, 9 and 12, and both his mother and mother-in-law, all live in an apartment unit off Walker Mill Road. They have faced eviction several times since the case was settled but have managed to scrape by, borrowing money from family and friends or charity from their church.

Questions remain

Looking back on the case, Mr. Hogue questions whether he was targeted unfairly for arrest because he is black and whether he would have been better off fighting the charges.

A U.S. Park Police spokesman declined to comment about the case or concerns that Mr. Hogue expressed about having felt intimidated when he tried to file a complaint against the officer.

“We’re not going to comment about it, as it would be part of an internal investigation,” Sgt. Paul Brooks said.

A variety of peculiarities in the case have caught the attention of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People in Prince George’s County, which is taking a closer look.

“It doesn’t pass the smell test,” NAACP chapter President Bob Ross said. “There is something wrong. Exactly what it is, I don’t know. It doesn’t appear they had probable cause to stop him in the first place.”

Court documents state that Officer McKeever stopped Mr. Hogue after noticing his dark tinted windows, which could be in violation of Maryland vehicle codes. Yet the firearms charges went through the D.C. court system.

Mr. Hogue said he thinks his life will return to normal only if he is able to get his conviction overturned.

That is an uphill battle, said gun rights activists whom he has approached to review his case.

Dave Workman, a spokesman with the Second Amendment Foundation, a gun rights advocacy group based in Bellevue, Wash., said it can be difficult keeping abreast of the District’s complicated and evolving gun laws since the city’s near total ban on handguns was overturned in the landmark 2008 District of Columbia v. Heller Supreme Court case. Non-D.C. residents can get tripped up easily, he said, but federal law should provide protection for people who transport guns through different jurisdictions.

“Under federal law, if you’re going from point A to point B through a jurisdiction, you’re supposed to have some protection from local laws about firearms in your vehicle,” Mr. Workman said, citing the federal Firearms Owners’ Protection Act. “Still, he got lost. He wound up on the wrong side of an imaginary line. That shouldn’t be a crime.”

......
“It appears to me that there is a trend for them to really try to streamline these laws and try to get them more in line with those in other states,” said Thomas McKiddie, projects director with the Second Amendment Foundation.

Mr. McKiddie said prosecuting people such as Mr. Hogue under the current law doesn’t serve any purpose.

“There’s not really any justice out of that,” he said. “It just really doesn’t serve any public need turning him into a pseudo-criminal.”
Click to expand...


Basically if I had a box of old 8MM Mauser ammo I forgot to take out of my trunk I could be arrested in DC. It's why since I park my care in New Jersey I make sure I don't even have spent brass in my car since it could be used as (bullshit) probable cause to search.

Massachusetts also has crap like this...thanks Mitt!

Oh I got this via an NRA news feed on facebook. I don't normally read the Washington Times...especially since there website looks like a pop ad bonanza.
 
E

Effect

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
O+3...?
Click to expand...

I heard in passing that it was suppose to have Romney up +14 or something near that with middel class voters. It sounded so outrageous that I just tuned the person out after that but perhaps I should have paid more attention. Though not sure if it was even real so I thought I ask.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
oview1-blog480.png


First, the polling by this time in the cycle has been reasonably good, especially when it comes to calling the winners and losers in the race. Of the 19 candidates who led in the polls at this stage since 1936, 18 won the popular vote (Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is the exception), and 17 won the Electoral College (Al Gore lost it in 2000, along with Mr. Dewey).
Click to expand...

The second theme is one that we’ve brought up before. There has not been any tendency, at least at this stage of the race, for the contest to break toward the challenging candidate.
Click to expand...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Republicans look for voter fraud, find little
DENVER (AP) — Republican election officials who promised to root out voter fraud so far are finding little evidence of a widespread problem.
State officials in key presidential battleground states have found only a tiny fraction of the illegal voters they initially suspected existed. Searches in Colorado and Florida have yielded numbers that amount to less than one-tenth of 1 percent of all registered voters in either state.
Democrats say the searches waste time and, worse, could disenfranchise eligible voters who are swept up in the checks.
"I find it offensive that I'm being required to do more than any other citizen to prove that I can vote," said Samantha Meiring, 37, a Colorado voter and South African immigrant who became a U.S. citizen in 2010. Meiring was among 3,903 registered voters who received letters last month from the Colorado Secretary of State's office questioning their right to vote.
Especially telling, critics of the searches say, is that the efforts are focused on crucial swing states from Colorado to Florida, where both political parties and the presidential campaigns are watching every vote. And in Colorado, most of those who received letters are either Democrats or unaffiliated with a party. It's a similar story in Florida, too.
Click to expand...
http://news.yahoo.com/republicans-look-voter-fraud-little-172327169--election.html
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Effect said:
I heard in passing that it was suppose to have Romney up +14 or something near that with middel class voters. It sounded so outrageous that I just tuned the person out after that but perhaps I should have paid more attention. Though not sure if it was even real so I thought I ask.
Click to expand...

That was the GOP positive spin on the poll. The poll itself has Obama leading Romney +3

But it is also a so called "battleground" poll, which I gather as meaning it is not really a National poll but a poll of voters in the swing states.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Tim-E said:
It's what a smart candidate would do, but when you're pushing the ambulance as a viable option when you don't have health care line six weeks from election day in a general election, logic obviously isn't one of your strong suits.
Click to expand...

That said, I'm still scratching my head as to why the tack-to-the-center never happened. I mean, I know Romney has been running a terrible campaign, but that's just too easy an answer. It's a no-brainer.

In fact, Eric Fehrnstrom actually acknowledged that they were going to move to the center with the etch-a-sketch remarks. It'd be hilarious if the flak he caught for that remark actually prevented Romney from making the move, but even that is too simple an answer for my liking.

So, what happened? Did the Tea Party really take the campaign (and Republican Convention, which should have been the place for a reinvention) hostage? Did the Koch brothers warn Romney not to move to far from the base? Does their internal polling show they still risk losing or depressing the base? Are they just that inept and out of touch with what independents want to hear? Has the Dem Convention and Team Obama's messaging just been too effective in portraying Romney as a staunch conservative even as he's tried to slowly move to the center?

Any (other) theories?
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Also, note that Obama is polling a higher average today (48.3%) than in 2008 (47%) at the respective points in time.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
GaimeGuy said:
I seem recall you opposing the hughes amendment
Click to expand...

Well the Hughes Amendment is bullshit. Would you like me to explain the process under the National Firearms Act that one goes through to acquire a machine gun (pre-86), suppressor, short barreled rifle/shotgun, or destructive device?

You are not going to come out looking good once I do and people see the long and thorough process that one goes through and that tax revenue it provides to the United States Government.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
This is a pretty remarkable turn of events, look at these old articles I found from Politico reflecting the conventional wisdom in Washington at the time that 2012 would be like 2004, a razor's edge election turning on Ohio most likely. And look at how pessimistic everyone was regarding Obama's chances just last year.

Politico: Map narrows for Obama:
Two years after his dramatic expansion of the electoral map paved the way to a landslide win, President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign appears likely to resemble the political trench warfare that marked the 2000 and 2004 presidential races.

But overwhelming Republican gains this year, combined with Obama’s descent in the polls and an economy that is lagging badly in critical electoral battlegrounds such as Florida, suggests a return to a national election measured in political inches in which the two candidates vie for advantage on the familiar terrain of Hamilton County, Ohio, and along Florida’s I-4 corridor.

“The map does look a lot like 2004,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jim Jordan, likening the coming presidential race to the clash between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. “It does feel like back to the future. We’re going back to political equilibrium.”
Click to expand...
Politico: President Obama's big drags:
The politics of the debt fight were a drag for President Barack Obama, yanking his popularity to new lows. Here’s an even bigger drag: Obama emerges from the months-long fracas weaker — and facing much deeper and more durable political obstacles — than his own advisers ever imagined.

The consensus has been that for all his problems, Obama is so skilled a politician — and the eventual GOP nominee so flawed or hapless — that he’d most likely be reelected.

Don’t buy into it.

...

Where’s the bright spot? Hard to see. Obama has few, if any, domestic achievements that enjoy broad public support. No one assumes employment, growth or housing prices to pick up much, if at all — something Obama is essentially powerless to change. And the political environment and electoral map are significantly tougher than in 2008, especially in true up-for-grabs states.

“The historical precedents of what happens to incumbent presidents in these economic circumstances are not positive or encouraging,” said Geoff Garin, a top Democratic pollster.

Privately, however, Obama’s team is concerned about the factors beyond its control, talking of an imminent need to retool their economic message and strategy heading into 2012. Absent the president’s ability to defy political gravity, one Obama adviser conceded, “The numbers add up to defeat.”
Click to expand...
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Effect said:
I heard in passing that it was suppose to have Romney up +14 or something near that with middel class voters. It sounded so outrageous that I just tuned the person out after that but perhaps I should have paid more attention. Though not sure if it was even real so I thought I ask.
Click to expand...

This is what it said in the article:

“middle-class families,” which he defines as households with either a married couple and/or kids still at home.
Click to expand...

Obama and Romney are tied with all voters who call themselves as middle class middle class voters: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81582_Page2.html
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So, an actual presidential party-elect said this:

When you have a fire in an aircraft, there’s no place to go, exactly, there’s no — and you can’t find any oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft, because the windows don’t open. I don’t know why they don’t do that. It’s a real problem. So it’s very dangerous.
Click to expand...

Should this man have control over a military?
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-beverly-hills-fundraiser-20120922,0,2317962.story
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Suikoguy said:
So, an actual presidential party-elect said this:



Should this man have control over a military?
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-beverly-hills-fundraiser-20120922,0,2317962.story
Click to expand...

Come on, as I said earlier, that's some low low hanging fruit, and the fruit may be rotten. Man's wife was in a plane that had smoke start to appear in the cockpit and made an emergency landing earlier in the day. I'll think it's okay to give him a pass on this one.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
Come on, as I said earlier, that's some low low hanging fruit, and the fruit may be rotten. Man's wife was in a plane that had smoke start to appear in the cockpit and made an emergency landing earlier in the day. I'll think it's okay to give him a pass on this one.
Click to expand...

Sorry if it was posted earlier.
Disagree with the rest of what you said.

Anyway, if everybody already discussed it I'm not going to drag it out again. Feel free to ignore that earlier post and this one :)
 
P

pigeon

Banned
CronosBlade said:
Actual voting pledge survey being sent to Republicans by one of their PACs, Faith and Freedom Coalition.
Click to expand...

Holy Jesus. "Poor," "Abysmal," and "I consider this man an enemy to liberty." "Which of the following is Obama worse than? Mark as many as appropriate: the Nazis, the Cold War, Abraham Lincoln." (Catch that War of Northern Aggression dogwhistle.) Also amazing that they have socialist, communist, and fascist AND fill in your own just in case.

The thing that gets me about this stuff all the time is, why exactly do they think that Nancy Pelosi wants control over their lives anyway? What is she going to make them do, wear rainbows and celebrate Halloween excessively? I know this is really leftover outrage from three years ago but frankly I am still a little confused about the constant fear of losing freedom.
 
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