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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Seriously?
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Yeah, looking at the map it's hard to see how Obama's not screwed.

wrapitupobummer.png
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That's what the UnSkewed polls are saying. Romney landslide, folks.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
CronosBlade said:
Actual voting pledge survey being sent to Republicans by one of their PACs, Faith and Freedom Coalition.


XtGGU.jpg
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You know . . . this is so sad. Reading that, you realize that the authors REALLY DO NOT GIVE A SHIT ABOUT THESE PEOPLE. It is nothing but craven fear-mongering money extraction. It is like a protection racket . . . . Nice country you have there . . . it would be a shame if it were to TURN INTO A COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP WHERE THEY BAN THE BIBLE! So send us money and vote like we tell you to!

Ralph Reed really is a con man that really should have gone to prison with Jack Abramoff.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
speculawyer said:
You know . . . this is so sad. Reading that, you realize that the authors REALLY DO NOT GIVE A SHIT ABOUT THESE PEOPLE. It is nothing but craven fear-mongering money extraction. It is like a protection racket . . . . Nice country you have there . . . it would be a shame if it were to TURN INTO A COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP WHERE THEY BAN THE BIBLE! So send us money and vote like we tell you to!

Ralph Reed really is a con man that really should have gone to prison with Jack Abramoff.
Click to expand...

Especially since Ralph Reed never gave us Red Scorpion like Abramoff did...he's interviewed on the Synapse BluRay about it.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Two House polls today from the Democrats:

Florida 26

Joe Garcia (D) 50
David Rivera (R) 41

Michigan 1

Gary McDowell (D) 49
Dan Benishek (R) 40
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Both would represent pickups, and both are crucial to winning the House. Grain of salt to be taken with these polls since they are internals, but the Republicans have been conspicuously quiet about releasing their own.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
An unidentified man asks Akin for advice on the best way to get in touch with a congressman, asking “should we write them a letter?” Akin dismissed the idea and suggested cash might be more attention-grabbing:

AKIN: I’m in a three-way primary for the US Senate. I’ve gone to people and asked for their support, their help, or their endorsement, and some people say yes. They write me a decent check. I remember that. The people that I thought were friends that tell me to go away because they are supporting someone else, I remember that. You know, I can remember back to 12 years ago. You remember who’s helping you. That’s one way that people get to know congressmen and senators.
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WOW. Fuck this piece of shit.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
pigeon said:
I need to read through this, but I would note quickly that a commonly cited poll (here among others: http://www.nationaljournal.com/then...es-hispanics-identify-as-lower-class-20120911 ) shows, in fact, that Hispanics and African-Americans (which are obviously Democratic strongholds) believe far more than whites that their children will do better than they did -- so it seems difficult to correlate their general optimism about the future with their tendency to vote Democratic, unless you want to split hairs about believing your life will improve versus believing your children's will (which seems to me to be an argument fraught with peril in any case).

Also, man, I didn't know RIFSnobs was you.
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speculawyer said:
I think he does a clever job of word-smithing to change something that is negative to a positive. He uses the phrase "a very strong aspirational aspect". Another way to look at is "a very strong delusional aspect".

Most people just are not going to become multi-millionaires. That is just a fact. If everyone was rich then who would pick up the garbage, clean toilets, wait tables, etc. It is the old bit about the GOP is the party for the rich and the "soon to be rich". Of course most of that soon to be rich never really does become rich. So the GOP relies on people being delusional and voting against their own interests. So if you are middle class and delusionally think you'll be rich soon then it is great that Mitt pays a 13.9% tax rate because you will too (real soon now!). But if you are middle class and know you'll remain middle class . . . well Mitt should at least pay the same rate as everyone else if not higher.
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Graycias, people.

Also, yes Pigeon, that's me. I thought everyone knew that! :p


edit: P.S. Suddenly your little tweets from Josh Marshall don't seem so impressive now, do they, PD? :smug
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Any recent polls on Walsh/Duckworth? Last one had Walsh trailing Duckworth by 9 points (over a month ago). Listening to radio, people are still calling it a tight race.

Joe Walsh is a true arrogant piece of shit.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Fox News opinion Writer Says hillary should resign.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/09/24/it-time-for-hillary-clinton-to-resign/

PD am cry.

How badly is Fox trying to turn the Libya and Egypt stuff on Obama. They won't stop pushing it. Every time I turn that channel on it's about that or Obama not meeting Bibi (a lie).

The only people who watch Fox are devotees and those who hate them. Seems they're just overtargeting here. Won't rope in swing voters.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Black Mamba said:
Fox News opinion Writer Says hillary should resign.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/09/24/it-time-for-hillary-clinton-to-resign/

PD am cry.

How badly is Fox trying to turn the Libya and Egypt stuff on Obama. They won't stop pushing it. Every time I turn that channel on it's about that or Obama not meeting Bibi (a lie).

The only people who watch Fox are devotees and those who hate them. Seems they're just overtargeting here. Won't rope in swing voters.
Click to expand...

They are pushing it because GOP/Romney wants to push it.

For sure, Obama admin gave some unclear statements too though.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Fox News opinion Writer Says hillary should resign.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/09/24/it-time-for-hillary-clinton-to-resign/

PD am cry.

How badly is Fox trying to turn the Libya and Egypt stuff on Obama. They won't stop pushing it. Every time I turn that channel on it's about that or Obama not meeting Bibi (a lie).

The only people who watch Fox are devotees and those who hate them. Seems they're just overtargeting here. Won't rope in swing voters.
Click to expand...

Funny the Obams Bibi thing was first reported as exclusive on CNN by Wolf Blitzer at least thats what I saw on the office tv when I was coming back from lunch a week or so ago.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Of Ras and Gallups

What puzzles many poll observers, however, is the contrast between these overall trends and the results of the two daily national tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. Both have shown a closer race nationwide over the past week, and both found an even bigger initial "bounce" for Obama in the week after the Democratic convention, which has since faded.

What's going on here?

First, the consistent differences between these two polls and other national surveys, commonly referred to as "house effects," are not new. Gallup and Rasmussen have been producing more favorable results for Romney all year.

The sources of such house effects are seldom obvious, but in this case there are some clues. In Gallup's case, a Huffington Post analysis this past June found that Gallup weights its initial sample of adults so that minority representation in the sample is roughly 2 percentage points lower than in the U.S. Census estimate it uses as a target. Since Gallup then reports results for only a sub-sample of those adults -- registered voters (who constitute about 80 percent of adults) -- and since better than three out of four non-white voters support Obama, the underweighting of racial minorities likely explains the president's lower numbers in the Gallup poll.

Gallup has announced no changes to its weighting procedures since the Huffington Post report, and it does not routinely disclose the demographic composition behind its Obama-Romney tracking survey results.

As for the Rasmussen poll, it is one of the few national surveys to use an automated recorded voice to conduct interviews. Federal law bars pollsters from using automated dialers to contact cell phones, so pollsters that rely solely on automated cold calls will miss the nearly one-third of Americans now living in cell-phone-only households.

Rasmussen claims to supplement its samples by conducting online interviews with cell-phone-only voters selected from a pool of Americans who have volunteered to participate in online surveys. However, Rasmussen has not published details of its "online survey tool" nor does it routinely disclose the number of interviews conducted online.

...

So again, if the trackers are different from other national polls, the contrast is more about the level of support they've been measuring for the two candidates than about the trend they have revealed.

An important caution: Yes, President Obama has gained slightly during the convention period, a time that has produced the most important polling shifts in the past. Moreover, the 3-4 point lead he now holds -- taking into account all available polling -- is sufficient to sweep most of the battleground states and win reelection. However, a relatively modest decline in Obama's support could make the presidential race very close once again.
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P

pigeon

Banned
Oblivion said:
Graycias, people.

Also, yes Pigeon, that's me. I thought everyone knew that! :p


edit: P.S. Suddenly your little tweets from Josh Marshall don't seem so impressive now, do they, PD? :smug
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Okay, so yeah. The paper identifies several traits that are typically correlated with happiness -- the belief in a fundamental organizing principle, the related belief in the effectiveness of personal effort and the just nature of the universe, et al. -- and shows that they correlate with conservatism. This really doesn't say anything. These traits suggest, and indeed in some cases explicitly state, a faith in the status quo. Certainly faith in the status quo is likely to mean you will be happier than if you think there's something wrong with the status quo, and similarly those who like things the way they are are that much more likely to be conservative. This is called privilege. It's by no means a new concept, unless you happen to post in OT-GAF, in which case there's every chance you find it a baffling and incomprehensible new idea. The people in question, by and large, believe that society is fair because it advantages them. I would have liked to see a breakdown of results by race, gender, and socioeconomic status!

And that's the second point I would make -- you can't make claims about lower-income people based on this paper, because there's every possibility that being lower-income correlates with many of the factors related to unhappiness -- because those factors are things like "feeling like life is unfair" or "feeling like I don't have the power to change my circumstances," things poor people often feel because they are accurate descriptions of their situation. It's a confounding variable.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Oblivion said:
Where did the get the payroll tax rates from?
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Good question. They claim the obama proposal has payroll taxes at 12.6% and the current payroll taxes are 2.4% o_O

I have no idea what kind of fuzzy math they're using
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Two House polls today from the Democrats:


Both would represent pickups, and both are crucial to winning the House. Grain of salt to be taken with these polls since they are internals, but the Republicans have been conspicuously quiet about releasing their own.
Click to expand...

I certainly believe the first one. David Rivera is currently being investigated by the FBI, it's a pretty big story (including missing informants and cash stuffed envelopes). I seriously doubt he'll survive this election
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Mike M said:
You're assuming facts not in evidence. It is not at all obvious that she was refusing to register Democrats, only that she was trying to register Republicans. These are not mutually exclusive activities.


LOL, she didn't even know herself.
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Ok, I'm not going to get much more into it, because its retarded, but she stated that she was working for the office, yet, you say she didn't really know because of how she stated it. So we are only allowed to take into account her demeanor/tone when stating certain things, but cannot apply it to the rest if the conversation. 'We are here supporting Romney! But after you completely called me out on it, um.... Yeah, we are registering everyone. That's right. Please ignore what I was alluding to earlier and only take these specific words at face value. Thank you'
 
C

Clevinger

Member
about the new calorie labels at MacDonalds
I did find one customer who had noticed the calorie labels: Dick Nigon of Sterling, Va. He and his wife, Lea, had stopped by McDonald’s after seeing an exhibit at the Renwick Gallery. Dick had ordered for the couple, noticed the calorie labels and liked them.
“I like that you have the information before you order,” he told me, when I asked about the labels. “It’s better than some kind of government health mandate in Obamacare.”
I told him that the calorie labels were, in fact, a government health mandate in Obamacare.
“Well that changes things a bit,” he responded. “I thought this was more of a voluntary sort of thing. Now I’m not quite sure how I feel about it.”
He and his wife talked it over a bit — she eating her grilled chicken sandwich, him eating a Big Mac — and didn’t come to much of a conclusion about whether this was a good idea.
Click to expand...
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
quadriplegicjon said:
Ok, I'm not going to get much more into it, because its retarded, but she stated that she was working for the office, yet, you say she didn't really know because of how she stated it. So we are only allowed to take into account her demeanor/tone when stating certain things, but cannot apply it to the rest if the conversation. 'We are here supporting Romney! But after you completely called me out on it, um.... Yeah, we are registering everyone. That's right. Please ignore what I was alluding to earlier and only take these specific words at face value. Thank you'
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But you're taking her stammering statement that she believes she might maybe work for the county clerk's office at face value? C'mon, dude.

But you're right, this isn't worth fighting about. Even if it turns out she was out she really was turning away people trying to register Democrat, at worst this is just some poorly trained campaign volunteer or paid gatherer being offered a bounty for signing up Republicans. Total non-story. If it turns out she actually worked for the county clerk's office, I will personally PayPal you a hundred bucks.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Mike M said:
But you're taking her stammering statement that she believes she might maybe work for the county clerk's office at face value? C'mon, dude.

But you're right, this isn't worth fighting about. Even if it turns out she was out she really was turning away people trying to register Democrat, at worst this is just some poorly trained campaign volunteer or paid gatherer being offered a bounty for signing up Republicans. Total non-story. If it turns out she actually worked for the county clerk's office, I will personally PayPal you a hundred bucks.
Click to expand...

the way I see it, her uncertainly seemed more about whether she should reveal who she works for, not uncertainly about who she works for. But what evs
 
A

Arde5643

Member
Mike M said:
But you're taking her stammering statement that she believes she might maybe work for the county clerk's office at face value? C'mon, dude.

But you're right, this isn't worth fighting about. Even if it turns out she was out she really was turning away people trying to register Democrat, at worst this is just some poorly trained campaign volunteer or paid gatherer being offered a bounty for signing up Republicans. Total non-story. If it turns out she actually worked for the county clerk's office, I will personally PayPal you a hundred bucks.
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This all comes down to her being cute, isn't it?











j/k :p
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Jackpot said:
well, gee, I would think that's about as self-evident as a statement you can get. But since you disagree I draw to your attention my (and others') responses in the original thread:
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The vast majority of these responses don't address the topic at all, they're just mockery. Please tell me you see this, because this is like the third time you've presented mockery as though it were argument. If being widely ridiculed by GAFfers was sufficient to disprove a thesis than rape would be hilarious and Chik-Fil-A would be the best sandwich ever.

I simply don't think it's the case that a gun's "sole purpose" is to kill. "Sole purpose" is not a term of art, it has a meaning -- and a gun has purposes besides killing. A trivial example would be sport, a hairier one deterrence. Again, I don't think it's a particularly good argument against gun control, and I recognize that guns are [i[primarily[/i] intended for violence, so I would be perfectly happy to entertain and indeed advance criticisms along those lines, but you haven't done so. (Frankly, I don't see that the question is relevant to gun control on either side.)

Jackpot said:
As I said you can read how it all plays out in the thread link and feel free to bump it if you wish to resurrect the debate.
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I have read the thread. I posted in the thread! I discussed, in the post you're responding to, my perspective on the thread when I posted in it originally! It seems to me that isolated madmen are not really a good basis on which to base a gun control policy. I mean, I could be wrong.
 
G

Guevara

Member
Keikaku said:
Did anyone post this already? When real publications start putting out articles about your campaign that mimic The Onion . . .
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Also from the New Yorker: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/09/why-is-romney-such-a-loser.html
Why Is Romney Such a Loser? Seven Theories

...Being careful about what you say in public, being polite to your hosts while travelling, making sure you don’t insult the voters whose support you are seeking: these aren’t high arts. They are basic demands of the job of being a politician; most city councilmen have mastered them. Romney hasn’t. Each of his gaffes, by itself, might be overlooked. Taken together, they signify something larger. Mitt Romney isn’t a very good politician. And that, in the final analysis, is why he is losing so badly.
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That's got to sting.
 
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