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[speculawyer]

He was out doing something else

How is he a Fox "News" 'contributor' if he is actively running a partisan SuperPAC?

Oh that's right, there are no journalistic ethics at Fox. Never mind.


Holy fuck. They don't even try any more do they?

 

[PhoenixDark]

that sounds eerie

Yea. There's a scene where Springsteen is performing at the Kerry election party/HQ and people slowly start realizing Ohio is slipping away. I'll try to find it. It's rather depressing

It also reminds me of how different the map looks today. New Mexico is solid blue now, while Colorado and Nevada lean blue. That region of the country is really a sign of things to come, demographically. Republicans need to get their act together ASAP. A bad business cycle can win an election for them, but it's going to get harder and harde to win unless they can split the Hispanic vote

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yea. There's a scene where Springsteen is performing at the Kerry election party/HQ and people slowly start realizing Ohio is slipping away. I'll try to find it. It's rather depressing

It also reminds me of how different the map looks today. New Mexico is solid blue now, while Colorado and Nevada lean blue. That region of the country is really a sign of things to come, demographically. Republicans need to get their act together ASAP. A bad business cycle can win an election for them, but it's going to get harder and harde to win unless they can split the Hispanic vote

Remember when Kerry wanted to run again in 08?

Good times.

 

[NullPointer]

Holy fuck. They don't even try any more do they?

How can you not see the blatantly obvious firewall between news and opinion.

It says opinion right there... no, ok I'm sure it says entertainment. Dammit, it says news.

 

[AniHawk]

http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3r2pyt/

Found on Reddit, seems relevant to Poligaf

i feel this way, but it's because i worry too much.

 

[speculawyer]

Yea. There's a scene where Springsteen is performing at the Kerry election party/HQ and people slowly start realizing Ohio is slipping away. I'll try to find it. It's rather depressing

It also reminds me of how different the map looks today. New Mexico is solid blue now, while Colorado and Nevada lean blue. That region of the country is really a sign of things to come, demographically. Republicans need to get their act together ASAP. A bad business cycle can win an election for them, but it's going to get harder and harde to win unless they can split the Hispanic vote

Latino is the new blue.

Man . . . the GOP fucked that up big time. One of the few things George Bush did well was build a bridge to the latino demographic . . . and the nativeists threw it away. MexicanMitt is unable to win them back at all.

 

[markatisu]

Latino is the new blue.

Man . . . the GOP fucked that up big time. One of the few things George Bush did well was build a bridge to the latino demographic . . . and the nativeists threw it away. MexicanMitt is unable to win them back at all.

Immigration will always be the Achilles heel of the modern day GOP

 

[NullPointer]

MexicanMitt is unable to win them back at all.

Romney wasn't born into privilege.

As a Hispanic I mean. Just joking, but seriously, its true.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

New Romney Ad, shit he should have run during Summer. Might be too late now.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns...ney-goes-directtocamera-in-new-ad-136683.html

 

[Black Mamba]

New Romney Ad, shit he should have run during Summer. Might be too late now.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns...ney-goes-directtocamera-in-new-ad-136683.html

I love the 12 million new jobs claim the GOP tries to pass off as their own when it's predicted to happen with no change in any policy.

 

[Diablos]

Unskewed Polls is as accurate as 538? For real real? :lol

Nate is smart enough to admit he's liberal but wise enough to realize there's no use in tainting the results if you want to retain credibility.

 

[Oblivion]

Texas can neither secede nor does anything in its constitution allow such a thing. What it actually says is that Texas can split into 5 sub states or some shit if it wanted.

Though, I don't know if even that would be allowed by the feds.

 

[speculawyer]

I love the 12 million new jobs claim the GOP tries to pass off as their own when it's predicted to happen with no change in any policy.

It is hard to take such a message seriously from a guy who literally was responsible for causing people to be fired and outsourcing their jobs to China.

I'm not saying that was wrong for him to do . . . but why the fuck should I believe he has a change of heart and will now advocate for policies to do the exact opposite of what he has been doing? I've mentioned this before . . . you could try to spin it as the criminal who as gone straight and is now using his knowledge to help the police. But Romney did nothing illegal. He is not trying to avoid jail. Why would he flip?


BTW . . . how can one not like this guy:

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton kisses Chen Li (C), a disabled woman who has opened a school for the disabled in China, on the head at the Clinton Global Initiative 2012 (CGI) during the final day of the event in New York September 25, 2012.

 

[Diablos]

5 sub states or some shit if it wanted.

MOAR GOP SENATORS NAOW

 

[brianmcdoogle]

BTW . . . how can one not like this guy:

Oh look, the man behind the murder of 48 people can't keep his hands and mouth off of some poor immigrant, crippled woman. What a hound dog. Was there no closet nearby for them to slip into?

Spoiler

I'm just not cut out for trolling
Also, I totally had to look up the "murder count" of the Clintons. I fact-checked this stupid post. lol

 

[isoquant]

Obama is probably the best debater of his entire generation.

wow

 

[Cloudy]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/u...-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

The OH and FL numbers are pretty crazy in the new NYT/CBS poll

 

[eBay Huckster]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/u...-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

The OH and FL numbers are pretty crazy in the new NYT/CBS poll

O V E R

e: Honestly, if he's actually winning OH/FL by that much he's probably winning closer to 380 than 330 EVs

 

[titiklabingapat]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/u...-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

The OH and FL numbers are pretty crazy in the new NYT/CBS poll

For those too lazy to read:

OH: 53 O, R 43
FL:O 53, R 44
PA: O 54, R 42

All likely voters.

 

[Averon]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/u...-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

The OH and FL numbers are pretty crazy in the new NYT/CBS poll

Those are crazy numbers. Too crazy. Outliers?

 

[polyh3dron]

It is hard to take such a message seriously from a guy who literally was responsible for causing people to be fired and outsourcing their jobs to China.

I'm not saying that was wrong for him to do . . . but why the fuck should I believe he has a change of heart and will now advocate for policies to do the exact opposite of what he has been doing? I've mentioned this before . . . you could try to spin it as the criminal who as gone straight and is now using his knowledge to help the police. But Romney did nothing illegal. He is not trying to avoid jail. Why would he flip?


BTW . . . how can one not like this guy:

lololol first thing that came to mind:

 

[Hitokage]

MoE of only +/- 3.

Holy shit. Retest please.

 

[Hazmat]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/u...-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

The OH and FL numbers are pretty crazy in the new NYT/CBS poll

Holy shit. OH by 10, FL by 9? That's fucking crazy.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Came to post NYT/Quinnepac

Holy cats.

 

[Cloudy]

Those are crazy numbers. Too crazy. Outliers?

Most definitely but the trend is not looking good for Romney. I kind of see why Obama did no bilaterals at the UN now. Why give Romney something to attack if you can run out the clock. They are viewing this first debate as a potential knockout punch and will not give him any straws to grasp at.

 

[Clevinger]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/u...-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

The OH and FL numbers are pretty crazy in the new NYT/CBS poll

Ohio 53/43 - O/R
Florida 53/44 - O/R

Pretty crazy.

edit: The Ohio one is pretty crazy, but sorta believable with a 3 pt MoE. But the Florida one doesn't look anything like recent polls.

edit2: In any case, I eagerly look forward to Unskewed Polls' take on all this.

 

[Brinbe]

Rombot am fucked... with the numbers from the likes of OH this past week, those prognosticators are eventually gonna have to pull things towards "Lean Obama" and then the criticisms of Mittens will only get that more intense.

Remember, Bams doesn't need Florida! He's already won just with OH/IA (where the POTUS supposedly already has a healthy lead in early voting) in his corner to push him towards 271.

 

[Black Mamba]

If the next couple polls come out and affirm an 8+ lead for Obama in Ohio/Fla, the election is over. Wrap it up.

But those numbers seem too high.


Also, counterpoint, I've discovered PD's alias: http://townhall.com/columnists/davidlimbaugh/2012/09/25/10_reasons_mitt_will_win/page/full/

Seriously, read this article. When the salty tears come...well, we need to be prepared. We're gonna need a bigger boat.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Favorables/Unfavorables from the same NYT/Quinny poll:

Obama

FL: 54 favorable, 42 unfavorable
OH: 54 favorable, 43 unfavorable
PA: 54 favorable, 43 unfavorable

Romney:
FL: 41 favorable, 48 unfavorable
OH: 41 favorable, 49 unfavorable
PA: 41 favorable, 50 unfavorable

Each state seem to be moving in lockstep with each other.

 

[ISOM]

Obama is probably the best debater of his entire generation.

wow

It's true though.

 

[Mac_Lane]

Wow those last numbers are indeed crazy.

At this rate, Arizona or Montana might get competitive, lulz.

 

[Clevinger]

It's true though.

If debating was based on substance, maybe. But our debates are mostly based on how fast someone can spit out a relevant talking point or zinger at the right moment. Obama's not very good at that. He takes a long time to think thoughtfully about what he'll say, even when he's in the middle of saying it, with lots of "uh, uh, um."

 

[Cloudy]

Rombot am fucked... with the numbers from the likes of OH this past week, those prognosticators are eventually gonna have to pull things towards "Lean Obama" and then the criticisms of Mittens will only get that more intense.

Wapo shifted OH to lean Obama today. No other news site has done that as far as I know. Even RCP hasn't done that (They seem to lean right so I get it.

 

[Black Mamba]

Overwhelming majorities with black and Hispanic voters have helped President Barack Obama to a slim lead in the Times-Union’s Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Florida Presidential Poll released Tuesday.

Among likely voters, 49 percent favor Obama for November’s election and 46 percent like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

One percent backed other candidates and 4 percent were undecided.
The poll of 540 Floridians has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
A Washington Post poll, also released Tuesday, shows Obama leading Romney, 51 percent to 47 percent among likely Florida voters. Among all registered voters in the state, the poll shows Obama up by 9 points.

The Post also released a poll in Ohio, another battleground state, showing Obama up 52-44.


Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/news/2012-0...romney-times-union-florida-poll#ixzz27YuMKBXZ

RCP will have Ohio over +5, at +6 without Ras. Fla will be inching towards +4.

Man, Romney is falling behind fucking fast.


edit: Wow, the RAND tracker has Obama up over 6 in the national poll. This is more in line with what we're seeing in the states. He's almost at 50% right now.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

 

[Brinbe]

Wapo shifted OH to lean Obama today. No other news site has done that as far as I know. Even RCP hasn't done that (They seem to lean right so I get it.

I'm sure many outlets will hold off as much as possible because Horserace! Narrative! but margins like this are tough to ignore. Good on WaPo for making that call. I know NBCNews (Chuck Todd) shifted Iowa to Lean Bams too in their outlook. And now with the recent strong polling in WI, it's only a matter of time till that gets shifted too. Once that happens, then it's really gg Romney.

 

[ISOM]

If debating was based on substance, maybe. But our debates are mostly based on how fast someone can spit out a relevant talking point or zinger at the right moment. Obama's not very good at that. He takes a long time to think thoughtfully about what he'll say, even when he's in the middle of saying it, with lots of "uh, uh, um."

I think you are overstating obama's "uh, um, uh's" A few of them is not going to trip up obama it's not like he is stuttering all over the place or has to be perfect. It's ridiculous if you think he does especially against romney.

Look at these for example. Obama is more succinct and informative than stumbling..


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGcR222Z98o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcRWS45gPzo&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao5V66m5FaA&feature=related

 

[Rocket Scientist]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGcR222Z98o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcRWS45gPzo&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao5V66m5FaA&feature=related

Man I remember when I watched that for the first time. Dude was on fire. What was sad about the whole thing was how sincere they were trying to sound during their questions etc. You almost believed they really wanted to work together and had genuinely good ideas and opinions.

 

[Black Mamba]

that last youtube from the mccain debates...god, Obama has aged so much in 4 years. All presidents do. It's sad.

 

[ISOM]

Man I remember when I watched that for the first time. Dude was on fire. What was sad about the whole thing was how sincere they were trying to sound during their questions etc. You almost believed they really wanted to work together and had genuinely good ideas and opinions.

Obama was so on point and owning republicans so badly foxnews stopped airing it live lol.

 

[The Chosen One]

It's hard to believe Obama is leading in Florida anywhere between 3-8 points barely a month removed from the Republican convention.

I can see how Ohio is trending for Obama but does anyone here have theories on why Florida is beginning to trend hard for Obama? In early/mid August, most Seniors in Florida actually trusted Romney more to protect medicare than Obama. Did the Libya and 47% comments just completely turn off Floridians to Mittens?

 

[Diablos]

Hey, you never know. Romney could finally pull out a wildcard during a debate or two and set Obama back quite a bit. Not saying it's bound to happen but it could.

The thing about Romney's consistent flip-flopping is that if he finally strikes a chord with people during a debate and runs with it, he could make some gains.

 

[ISOM]

Hey, you never know. Romney could finally pull out a wildcard during a debate or two and set Obama back quite a bit. Not saying it's bound to happen but it could.

The thing about Romney's consistent flip-flopping is that if he finally strikes a chord with people during a debate and runs with it, he could make some gains.

I fail to see what any of them might be considering how much of Romney's campaign is based off of lies and half-truths. Anything is possible I guess but I can't envision it.

 

[speculawyer]

It's hard to believe Obama is leading in Florida anywhere between 3-8 points barely a month removed from the Republican convention.

I can see how Ohio is trending for Obama but does anyone here have theories on why Florida is beginning to trend hard for Obama? In early/mid August, most Seniors in Florida actually trusted Romney more to protect medicare than Obama. Did the Libya and 47% comments just completely turn off Floridians to Mittens?

I doubt Libya mattered but I do think many seniors realized they are part of the 47% and Romney just shat on them.

 

[Black Mamba]

It's hard to believe Obama is leading in Florida anywhere between 3-8 points barely a month removed from the Republican convention.

I can see how Ohio is trending for Obama but does anyone here have theories on why Florida is beginning to trend hard for Obama? In early/mid August, most Seniors in Florida actually trusted Romney more to protect medicare than Obama. Did the Libya and 47% comments just completely turn off Floridians to Mittens?

Ryan plan for medicare is to turn it into vouchers. Romney has adopted that plan.

Recent polling shows that Medicare is a very important topic in florida and Obama is winning it by double digits among under 65. Romney is up around 2 points among 65+. That's normally a 20 point spread for Republicans.

Romney is losing the medicare debate in Florida since he picked Ryan just as many of us claimed would happen.

 

[Hitokage]

Hey, you never know. Romney could finally pull out a wildcard during a debate or two and set Obama back quite a bit. Not saying it's bound to happen but it could.

The thing about Romney's consistent flip-flopping is that if he finally strikes a chord with people during a debate and runs with it, he could make some gains.

Until he inevitably changes on that position through sheer habit.

 

[benjipwns]

Recent polling shows that Medicare is a very important topic in florida

Recent?

 

[Black Mamba]

Recent?

lol, fair point. I was just trying convey that the numbers are currently high even though that's probably not unusual for Florida.

 

[Diablos]

Until he inevitably changes on that position through sheer habit.

At some point, whether it's for his gain or not, I think he will put an end to that to see if it helps him.

 

[Hitokage]

At some point, whether it's for his gain or not, I think he will put an end to that to see if it helps him.

Let's work on maintaining the same message for an entire week first.

 

[Diablos]

Let's work on maintaining the same message for an entire week first.

Yep. I think at some point he will have no choice but to force himself to do that, the nature of debating alone should kind of back him into a corner there. Unless he's even dumber that we anticipated which would be pretty shocking at this point. He's gonna have to buckle down, he has to know this.