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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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S

speculawyer

Member
norinrad said:
He was out doing something else

url
Click to expand...

How is he a Fox "News" 'contributor' if he is actively running a partisan SuperPAC?

Oh that's right, there are no journalistic ethics at Fox. Never mind.


Holy fuck. They don't even try any more do they?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
AniHawk said:
that sounds eerie
Click to expand...

Yea. There's a scene where Springsteen is performing at the Kerry election party/HQ and people slowly start realizing Ohio is slipping away. I'll try to find it. It's rather depressing

It also reminds me of how different the map looks today. New Mexico is solid blue now, while Colorado and Nevada lean blue. That region of the country is really a sign of things to come, demographically. Republicans need to get their act together ASAP. A bad business cycle can win an election for them, but it's going to get harder and harde to win unless they can split the Hispanic vote
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Yea. There's a scene where Springsteen is performing at the Kerry election party/HQ and people slowly start realizing Ohio is slipping away. I'll try to find it. It's rather depressing

It also reminds me of how different the map looks today. New Mexico is solid blue now, while Colorado and Nevada lean blue. That region of the country is really a sign of things to come, demographically. Republicans need to get their act together ASAP. A bad business cycle can win an election for them, but it's going to get harder and harde to win unless they can split the Hispanic vote
Click to expand...
Remember when Kerry wanted to run again in 08?

Good times.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Yea. There's a scene where Springsteen is performing at the Kerry election party/HQ and people slowly start realizing Ohio is slipping away. I'll try to find it. It's rather depressing

It also reminds me of how different the map looks today. New Mexico is solid blue now, while Colorado and Nevada lean blue. That region of the country is really a sign of things to come, demographically. Republicans need to get their act together ASAP. A bad business cycle can win an election for them, but it's going to get harder and harde to win unless they can split the Hispanic vote
Click to expand...
Latino is the new blue.

Man . . . the GOP fucked that up big time. One of the few things George Bush did well was build a bridge to the latino demographic . . . and the nativeists threw it away. MexicanMitt is unable to win them back at all.
 
M

markatisu

Member
speculawyer said:
Latino is the new blue.

Man . . . the GOP fucked that up big time. One of the few things George Bush did well was build a bridge to the latino demographic . . . and the nativeists threw it away. MexicanMitt is unable to win them back at all.
Click to expand...

Immigration will always be the Achilles heel of the modern day GOP
 
D

Diablos

Member
Unskewed Polls is as accurate as 538? For real real? :lol

Nate is smart enough to admit he's liberal but wise enough to realize there's no use in tainting the results if you want to retain credibility.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Texas can neither secede nor does anything in its constitution allow such a thing. What it actually says is that Texas can split into 5 sub states or some shit if it wanted.

Though, I don't know if even that would be allowed by the feds.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Black Mamba said:
I love the 12 million new jobs claim the GOP tries to pass off as their own when it's predicted to happen with no change in any policy.
Click to expand...
It is hard to take such a message seriously from a guy who literally was responsible for causing people to be fired and outsourcing their jobs to China.

I'm not saying that was wrong for him to do . . . but why the fuck should I believe he has a change of heart and will now advocate for policies to do the exact opposite of what he has been doing? I've mentioned this before . . . you could try to spin it as the criminal who as gone straight and is now using his knowledge to help the police. But Romney did nothing illegal. He is not trying to avoid jail. Why would he flip?


BTW . . . how can one not like this guy:

2012-09-26T021215Z_1_CBRE88P065S00_RTROPTP_2_USA-CLINTON.JPG

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton kisses Chen Li (C), a disabled woman who has opened a school for the disabled in China, on the head at the Clinton Global Initiative 2012 (CGI) during the final day of the event in New York September 25, 2012.
Click to expand...
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
speculawyer said:
BTW . . . how can one not like this guy:

2012-09-26T021215Z_1_CBRE88P065S00_RTROPTP_2_USA-CLINTON.JPG
Click to expand...

Oh look, the man behind the murder of 48 people can't keep his hands and mouth off of some poor immigrant, crippled woman. What a hound dog. Was there no closet nearby for them to slip into?
I'm just not cut out for trolling :(
Also, I totally had to look up the "murder count" of the Clintons. I fact-checked this stupid post. lol
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
speculawyer said:
It is hard to take such a message seriously from a guy who literally was responsible for causing people to be fired and outsourcing their jobs to China.

I'm not saying that was wrong for him to do . . . but why the fuck should I believe he has a change of heart and will now advocate for policies to do the exact opposite of what he has been doing? I've mentioned this before . . . you could try to spin it as the criminal who as gone straight and is now using his knowledge to help the police. But Romney did nothing illegal. He is not trying to avoid jail. Why would he flip?


BTW . . . how can one not like this guy:

2012-09-26T021215Z_1_CBRE88P065S00_RTROPTP_2_USA-CLINTON.JPG
Click to expand...
lololol first thing that came to mind:

what-you-did-there-i-see-it.thumbnail.jpg
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Averon said:
Those are crazy numbers. Too crazy. Outliers?
Click to expand...
Most definitely but the trend is not looking good for Romney. I kind of see why Obama did no bilaterals at the UN now. Why give Romney something to attack if you can run out the clock. They are viewing this first debate as a potential knockout punch and will not give him any straws to grasp at.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Rombot am fucked... with the numbers from the likes of OH this past week, those prognosticators are eventually gonna have to pull things towards "Lean Obama" and then the criticisms of Mittens will only get that more intense.

Remember, Bams doesn't need Florida! He's already won just with OH/IA (where the POTUS supposedly already has a healthy lead in early voting) in his corner to push him towards 271.
XlQfT.png
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Favorables/Unfavorables from the same NYT/Quinny poll:

Obama

FL: 54 favorable, 42 unfavorable
OH: 54 favorable, 43 unfavorable
PA: 54 favorable, 43 unfavorable

Romney:
FL: 41 favorable, 48 unfavorable
OH: 41 favorable, 49 unfavorable
PA: 41 favorable, 50 unfavorable

Each state seem to be moving in lockstep with each other.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
IGSaint said:
It's true though.
Click to expand...

If debating was based on substance, maybe. But our debates are mostly based on how fast someone can spit out a relevant talking point or zinger at the right moment. Obama's not very good at that. He takes a long time to think thoughtfully about what he'll say, even when he's in the middle of saying it, with lots of "uh, uh, um."
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Brinbe said:
Rombot am fucked... with the numbers from the likes of OH this past week, those prognosticators are eventually gonna have to pull things towards "Lean Obama" and then the criticisms of Mittens will only get that more intense.
Click to expand...

Wapo shifted OH to lean Obama today. No other news site has done that as far as I know. Even RCP hasn't done that (They seem to lean right so I get it.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Overwhelming majorities with black and Hispanic voters have helped President Barack Obama to a slim lead in the Times-Union’s Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Florida Presidential Poll released Tuesday.

Among likely voters, 49 percent favor Obama for November’s election and 46 percent like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

One percent backed other candidates and 4 percent were undecided.
The poll of 540 Floridians has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
A Washington Post poll, also released Tuesday, shows Obama leading Romney, 51 percent to 47 percent among likely Florida voters. Among all registered voters in the state, the poll shows Obama up by 9 points.

The Post also released a poll in Ohio, another battleground state, showing Obama up 52-44.


Read more at Jacksonville.com: http://jacksonville.com/news/2012-0...romney-times-union-florida-poll#ixzz27YuMKBXZ
Click to expand...

RCP will have Ohio over +5, at +6 without Ras. Fla will be inching towards +4.

Man, Romney is falling behind fucking fast.


edit: Wow, the RAND tracker has Obama up over 6 in the national poll. This is more in line with what we're seeing in the states. He's almost at 50% right now.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Cloudy said:
Wapo shifted OH to lean Obama today. No other news site has done that as far as I know. Even RCP hasn't done that (They seem to lean right so I get it.
Click to expand...
I'm sure many outlets will hold off as much as possible because Horserace! Narrative! but margins like this are tough to ignore. Good on WaPo for making that call. I know NBCNews (Chuck Todd) shifted Iowa to Lean Bams too in their outlook. And now with the recent strong polling in WI, it's only a matter of time till that gets shifted too. Once that happens, then it's really gg Romney.
 
I

ISOM

Member
Clevinger said:
If debating was based on substance, maybe. But our debates are mostly based on how fast someone can spit out a relevant talking point or zinger at the right moment. Obama's not very good at that. He takes a long time to think thoughtfully about what he'll say, even when he's in the middle of saying it, with lots of "uh, uh, um."
Click to expand...

I think you are overstating obama's "uh, um, uh's" A few of them is not going to trip up obama it's not like he is stuttering all over the place or has to be perfect. It's ridiculous if you think he does especially against romney.

Look at these for example. Obama is more succinct and informative than stumbling..


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGcR222Z98o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcRWS45gPzo&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao5V66m5FaA&feature=related
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
I

ISOM

Member
Rocket Scientist said:
Man I remember when I watched that for the first time. Dude was on fire. What was sad about the whole thing was how sincere they were trying to sound during their questions etc. You almost believed they really wanted to work together and had genuinely good ideas and opinions.
Click to expand...

Obama was so on point and owning republicans so badly foxnews stopped airing it live lol.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
It's hard to believe Obama is leading in Florida anywhere between 3-8 points barely a month removed from the Republican convention.

I can see how Ohio is trending for Obama but does anyone here have theories on why Florida is beginning to trend hard for Obama? In early/mid August, most Seniors in Florida actually trusted Romney more to protect medicare than Obama. Did the Libya and 47% comments just completely turn off Floridians to Mittens?
 
D

Diablos

Member
Hey, you never know. Romney could finally pull out a wildcard during a debate or two and set Obama back quite a bit. Not saying it's bound to happen but it could.

The thing about Romney's consistent flip-flopping is that if he finally strikes a chord with people during a debate and runs with it, he could make some gains.
 
I

ISOM

Member
Diablos said:
Hey, you never know. Romney could finally pull out a wildcard during a debate or two and set Obama back quite a bit. Not saying it's bound to happen but it could.

The thing about Romney's consistent flip-flopping is that if he finally strikes a chord with people during a debate and runs with it, he could make some gains.
Click to expand...

I fail to see what any of them might be considering how much of Romney's campaign is based off of lies and half-truths. Anything is possible I guess but I can't envision it.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
The Chosen One said:
It's hard to believe Obama is leading in Florida anywhere between 3-8 points barely a month removed from the Republican convention.

I can see how Ohio is trending for Obama but does anyone here have theories on why Florida is beginning to trend hard for Obama? In early/mid August, most Seniors in Florida actually trusted Romney more to protect medicare than Obama. Did the Libya and 47% comments just completely turn off Floridians to Mittens?
Click to expand...

I doubt Libya mattered but I do think many seniors realized they are part of the 47% and Romney just shat on them.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
The Chosen One said:
It's hard to believe Obama is leading in Florida anywhere between 3-8 points barely a month removed from the Republican convention.

I can see how Ohio is trending for Obama but does anyone here have theories on why Florida is beginning to trend hard for Obama? In early/mid August, most Seniors in Florida actually trusted Romney more to protect medicare than Obama. Did the Libya and 47% comments just completely turn off Floridians to Mittens?
Click to expand...

Ryan plan for medicare is to turn it into vouchers. Romney has adopted that plan.

Recent polling shows that Medicare is a very important topic in florida and Obama is winning it by double digits among under 65. Romney is up around 2 points among 65+. That's normally a 20 point spread for Republicans.

Romney is losing the medicare debate in Florida since he picked Ryan just as many of us claimed would happen.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Diablos said:
Hey, you never know. Romney could finally pull out a wildcard during a debate or two and set Obama back quite a bit. Not saying it's bound to happen but it could.

The thing about Romney's consistent flip-flopping is that if he finally strikes a chord with people during a debate and runs with it, he could make some gains.
Click to expand...
Until he inevitably changes on that position through sheer habit.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Hitokage said:
Let's work on maintaining the same message for an entire week first.
Click to expand...
Yep. I think at some point he will have no choice but to force himself to do that, the nature of debating alone should kind of back him into a corner there. Unless he's even dumber that we anticipated which would be pretty shocking at this point. He's gonna have to buckle down, he has to know this.
 
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