not many people identify with north easterners, which is why in general they fail on the national stage. who was the last NE identified president that wasn't a founding father, besides JFK who BARELY won.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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not many people identify with north easterners, which is why in general they fail on the national stage. who was the last NE identified president that wasn't a founding father, besides JFK who BARELY won.
I didn't spot these posted: NYT/Quinnipiac polls (last month in parenthesis):
Florida: 53-44 (49-46)
Ohio: 53-43 (50-44)
Pennsylvania: 54-42 (54-42)
Likely voters. Looks like people are making up their minds, the undecideds are dropping fast. And Obama is well over the 50% mark in all three.
Florida: 53-44 (49-46)
Ohio: 53-43 (50-44)
Pennsylvania: 54-42 (54-42)
Likely voters. Looks like people are making up their minds, the undecideds are dropping fast. And Obama is well over the 50% mark in all three.
hydragonwarrior
Member
He just knew how to appear calmer. For instance, when Gore was arguing his point in a stern manner, Bush just waited for him to finish and then asked "Are you done?"
Gore's point was probably valid, but that moment just made Bush look cooler.
Black Republican
Member
id bet the 47% marks hitting the front page newspapers didnt help
Aaron Strife
Banned
Put a fork in it, guys.
Obama's going to have to stumble in the debates drunk with 5 o'clock shadow while Romney hits him on a sex tape just discovered of him and a harem of white women for this to turn around. And even then I'm not so sure.
Kosmo was also an ardent believer in unskewed polls entire premise.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
Also didn't help that Kerry has about as much personality...okay he has some more than Mitt. Kerry and Mitt have this same type of cookie cutter vibe about them in how they present themselves and come across.
Registered voter polls. Knock them back three points. Ohio by 7, Florida by 6. High but in line with recent polls. Edit: OH SHIT LIKELY VOTER DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AMERICAN SPRING
Even more striking is the churn rate graph. Not only does Obama keep improving, his rate of conversion is ALSO steadily improving -- so he's gaining a little more every day.
You're kidding yourself if you think Obama isn't preparing for the debates. All of this media concern is just the Obama team lowering expectations.
He and BigSicily are likely the two running it.
RustyNails
Member
Extremely rich Politicians from NE with good hair, good looks turn off the Rust belt voters like anything. They simply don't trust them. Romney is the very caricature of an out of touch NE politician that they make fun of.
scandal
Pretty good business proposition; they're probably getting a ton of traffic and ad revenue.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
I'm surprised the site isn't down more often with the other side claiming to have deposed the other for control...or is that just if they were libertarians?
RustyNails
Member
I wonder how the NYT/Quinnipiac poll looks UNSKEWED. Probably +5 to +7 Romney in all 3 states.
iamshadowlark
Banned
I for one can't wait till the debates, even though I don't really consider either particularly good.
Advantage Obama, if that even needs to be said.
Advantage Obama, if that even needs to be said.
RustyNails
Member
Whitey video.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
I've said it once I'll said it again: Find these people and bet money with them.
Hobbestetrician
Member
RCP shifted Ohio to Lean Obama as well.
benjipwns
Banned
You just have to adjust it to 37 R/35 D iirc.
I'd love to see what happens if more news outlets decide that it's okay to admit that yes, Obama is indeed pretty well ahead in Ohio.
If they really believed what they were peddling they'd buy Romney shares on Intrade.
DragonSworne
Banned
No one will watch the news minute by minute on election day if they do
Even Romney campaign's internal polls have them within "margin of error" (this is generally campaign speak for being down 3-4 points) in Ohio and some other must-win states, or at least that's as much as they are willing to publicly admit. But I suppose their polls and other GOP internal polls need some unskewing as well.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
My friend was telling me about Intrade saying I should buy it (since apparently the rate was far better a few weeks ago). What the hell is that? Is it a gambling site?
As amusing as this unskewed polls debacle is, I remeber back in 2004 a lot of left leaning partisan sites were also advocating weighing by party id and claiming that republicans were being oversampled. Really the same argument happens almost every election.
e: http://www.people-press.org/2004/09/23/party-affiliation-what-it-is-and-what-it-isnt/
e: http://www.people-press.org/2004/09/23/party-affiliation-what-it-is-and-what-it-isnt/
It's a 'stock market' for events. So... yea, gambling basically.
Damn, Texas is lean R now? We're fucked.
Basileus777
Member
There were plenty of people from the left in denial even in 2010.
motherofgod.gif
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004346171663
Its... Kosmo's facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004346171663
Its... Kosmo's facebook page.
A scandal on the scale of a leaked video of Obama snorting cocaine off of a white prostitute with copies of the Quran in background and him talking on the phone with Muslim leaders about their plan to weaken the United States.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Quick question for poli-gaf (which I'll have to read the answers to after work)... why is New Hampshire an almost-red state in a sea of blue? What makes it a swing state when Vermont and Massachusetts are some of the most reliably dem states in the country? Is there some sort of huge demographic difference I'm unaware of?
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
Yeah, no one said the right ever had a monopoly on being in denial.
Bush never "won" a single debate. Quite the opposite...Kerry always got a small bump after each one if I remember correctly.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
Related question, why does Vermont a liberal as hell state, has pretty much the least restrictive gun laws in the country?
Can anyone answer that? I mean look at it. You can sell any gun to a private party with no background check and you don't need any permit to conceal carry!
http://www.nraila.org/gun-laws/state-laws/vermont.aspx
Still waiting for the"whitey video".
Still waiting for him to raise taxes.
Still waiting for him to take our guns.
Some people just need to come out and say we hate the f-ing n-word.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xScZN2-Z_Sg
Basileus777
Member
It's probably largely a result of being one of the most rural states in the country.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
Even with that, it doesn't make sense. Do Democrats there as a majority oppose gun control (vs say in PA were it's a sizable minority)? I mean PA has more gun laws and restrictions.
RustyNails
Member
My understanding is that that's where rich people from around the country go retire once they get their golden parachutes.
No not really, just lots of blue-collar angry white middle age types. This is the "Live Free or Die" state we're talking about, also, it won't go R, it only likes to flirt.
New Hampshire state motto: LIVE FREE OR DIE
New England basically sorts itself. If you're a sleazy banker, Delaware; if you want a super nice house, Rhode Island; if you're Irish, Massachusetts; if you kind of wish you were Canadian, Vermont; if you hate seat belt laws, New Hampshire (the last state to mandate them). They have no income or sales tax. They were selected for the Free State Project. They've always had libertarian tendencies.
Same answer, really. In both cases, these are New England states that existed before America, had constitutions before America, and established a strong tradition of adherence to certain values that hasn't really changed, even as their other values changed. I'm sure Pennsylvania has some weird political artifacts as well somewhere.
Vermont's largest city has 40,000 people. Hence very little crime and no push for gun control to stop that crime.
It's really quite a rural state.
Basileus777
Member
PA has a large urban population. There's nothing like Philly or Pittsburgh in Vermont and there's no pressure to control urban crime through gun control.
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