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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Guevara said:
poll.gif


Maybe the truest poll of the season. Roundrock Leader, Texas.
Click to expand...
We know what county Gary Johnson might carry!
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
pigeon said:
Same answer, really. In both cases, these are New England states that existed before America, had constitutions before America, and established a strong tradition of adherence to certain values that hasn't really changed, even as their other values changed. I'm sure Pennsylvania has some weird political artifacts as well somewhere.
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I'd agree if it wasn't for the gun laws of it's neighbors that it borders, I guess that's why it seems to stand out. I mean it's surrounded by 2 of the states with Assault Weapon Bans...than again PA is surrounded by 3. lol

thefro said:
Vermont's largest city has 40,000 people. Hence very little crime and no push for gun control to stop that crime.

It's really quite a rural state.
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Interesting.

Basileus777 said:
PA has a large urban population. There's nothing like Philly or Pittsburgh in Vermont and there's no pressure to control urban crime through gun control.
Click to expand...

That's true, it just seems odd, Vermont is such a strange outlier with guns though. Perhaps my dream should be to relocate to Vermont one day. lol Liberal values, lots of guns!
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Nate Silver is having a Britney moment.

@fivethirtyeight said:
Once pollsters start to act like turnout is a matter of subjective opinion, the whole point of polling is defeated.
I trust pollsters more when they show an OCCASIONAL outlier. It shows you that they're not cheating.
What's turnout going to be like? WHY DON'T WE TAKE A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY AND FIND OUT! Not up to the pollster to decide for the voters.
Click to expand...
 
I

Incognito

Troll
hugh hewitt gets into spat with director of polling at Marist institute over polling

http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f36ec71e977
HH: But the question is, you’re an academic. As a professional, at what point would you say that sample size, given what we know, is not legitimate? Is it 15%?

LM: Well, here’s what you could do. You could go back and look at a 2004 exit poll, and look at 2008, and you could say oh, wow, look at 2004. That wasn’t at all like 2008 in terms of the party spread. How could you be so wrong in 2008 than 2004? And the reason is that 2008 was different than 2004. 2012 will be different than 2008, and in fact, Obama’s not doing as well right now in Ohio, as he did in 2008.

HH: Okay, last question, what percentage do you think Democrats will vote over Republicans in Ohio this year?

LM: Oh, probably about 8 percent, plus or minus three or four.

HH: So it could be four percent?

LM: And it could be twelve.

HH: Okay, I just think, Doc, that’s just stretching it, but I look forward to having you back.

LM: It’s not stretching. That’s statistics and mathematics. I’m not making this stuff up.
Click to expand...
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Trurl said:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/death-by-powerpoint-continued/

So, Paul Krugman is saying the Politico story about Ryan calling Romney "the stench" is satire? Where is he getting this from. I was going to dismiss the story unless it's confirmed in tell-all accounts after the campaign, but I haven't seen any confirmation that it's satire.

I hope it is satire. People can be a bit too credulous with political gossip and this could teach caution.
Click to expand...

roger simon's columns are usually always tongue-in-cheek and satire.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
That's true, it just seems odd, Vermont is such a strange outlier with guns though. Perhaps my dream should be to relocate to Vermont one day. lol Liberal values, lots of guns!
Click to expand...
Hey it seems it should be my dream to relocate there, too. Wanted to since they went on the path to single payer. My wife wants to go there, too, until I remind her it's more north than where we are in Wisconsin. :( if we're going to move way out of state we want warm weather, but I don't want to live in a southern red state.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RDreamer said:
Hey it seems it should be my dream to relocate there, too. Wanted to since they went on the path to single payer. My wife wants to go there, too, until I remind her it's more north than where we are in Wisconsin. :( if we're going to move way out of state we want warm weather, but I don't want to live in a southern red state.
Click to expand...

250px-Flag_of_California.svg.png
 
P

Plumbob

Member
Trurl said:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/death-by-powerpoint-continued/

So, Paul Krugman is saying the Politico story about Ryan calling Romney "the stench" is satire? Where is he getting this from. I was going to dismiss the story unless it's confirmed in tell-all accounts after the campaign, but I haven't seen any confirmation that it's satire.

I hope it is satire. People can be a bit too credulous with political gossip and this could teach caution.
Click to expand...

So Paul Ryan is a politically shrewd guy, at least shrewd enough to know that calling his running mate "the stench" is idiotic.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
pigeon said:
New Hampshire state motto: LIVE FREE OR DIE

New England basically sorts itself. If you're a sleazy banker, Delaware; if you want a super nice house, Rhode Island; if you're Irish, Massachusetts; if you kind of wish you were Canadian, Vermont; if you hate seat belt laws, New Hampshire (the last state to mandate them). They have no income or sales tax. They were selected for the Free State Project. They've always had libertarian tendencies.
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Wait, did I read that right? NH has no income taxes?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
I'd just love rural qualities with liberal views.
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Yeah that's my wife, too. Liberal as hell, but still very southern (she grew up in Kentucky and Indiana). Personally I like rural, but I also love staying close enough to the city to be able to do shit. I also have to stay near a city since my career won't do well in the backwoods. Wife wants to be as far from civilization as possible, since she wants to raise chickens and have a huge garden, etc. so, we get to compromise ;p
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
RDreamer said:
Yeah that's my wife, too. Liberal as hell, but still very southern (she grew up in Kentucky and Indiana). Personally I like rural, but I also love staying close enough to the city to be able to do shit. I also have to stay near a city since my career won't do well in the backwoods. Wife wants to be as far from civilization as possible, since she wants to raise chickens and have a huge garden, etc. so, we get to compromise ;p
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Yeah, that's why the area in PA I live now strikes an okay balance. Bucks County isn't an empty area by an means, but it's not Philly, but still close to Philly. As a lawyer, my optimal career path isn't really backwoods either. Though Mountain Lawyer sounds like a good reality show to pitch! lol
 
C

Chichikov

Member
RustyNails said:
Wait, did I read that right? NH has no income taxes?
Click to expand...
New England in general (outside the Boston area) have this libertarian (not libertopian mind you) side to their general liberalism.
But most sparsely populated areas do, if anything, the outlier is their general liberalism.
Mike M said:
Neither does WA (We've got sales tax though)
Click to expand...
Washington State also have VERY liberal gun laws.
I mean, it's a Stand Your Ground state where municipalities have very limited capacity to regulate firearms.
And that's a state that is poised to legalize gay marriage and pot this November.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
RustyNails said:
So how do those slightly libertarian states get their revenues? How much do they suck on the federal government teets?
Click to expand...
I can speak of Washington State -
Sales tax, toll roads, licensing fee, property taxes.
It's fucking stupid and mostly regressive, but I would not lie, clicking "no state taxes" on my turbo tax is worth it all.
Cause fuck doing taxes.

p.s.
They did try to pass a millionaire tax a couple of years ago (which is spearheaded by Bill Gates' father), but it was defeat, thanks to dickwads like Steve Ballmer.
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
daedalius said:
motherofgod.gif

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004346171663

Its... Kosmo's facebook page.
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Oh man. This is pretty good.

Joey Scioli Sr. said:
Barack Hussein Obama II (Barry Soetoro) Is A Back~Stabbing Lying~Ass Kenyan Born Piece Of Muslim Friggin SHIT...... I Pledge" RESISTANCE" To The Czar Of The Divided States Of America....And To The Communism For Which He Stands....One Man....Without GOD....Divisible....With Healthcare And Welfare For All!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...
Wow.
 
M

Manos: The Hans of Fate

Banned
Chichikov said:
Washington State also have VERY liberal gun laws.
I mean, it's a Stand Your Ground state where municipalities have very limited capacity to regulate firearms.
And that's a state that is poised to legalize gay marriage and pot this November.
Click to expand...

Which is why I feel that the push towards gun control is over in all but a few places.

Now if we can just get rid of 922(r) and the SemiAuto Import Ban, laws based on nothing but people being afraid of evil looking rifles.

Before anyone gives me the stinkeye, It's not like I'm suggesting getting rid of instant background checks and besides you can buy in Canada things that can't be imported in the US in original configuration and barrel length.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Trurl said:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/death-by-powerpoint-continued/

So, Paul Krugman is saying the Politico story about Ryan calling Romney "the stench" is satire? Where is he getting this from. I was going to dismiss the story unless it's confirmed in tell-all accounts after the campaign, but I haven't seen any confirmation that it's satire.

I hope it is satire. People can be a bit too credulous with political gossip and this could teach caution.
Click to expand...
It reads as very obvious satire, did someone actually take it seriously?

e: oh even krugman did
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
I eagerly await Rush's mea culpa that he never believed in the Romney campaign and it was not a true representation of what conservatism is, ala what he did to Bush in 2006.

He's a good soldier though, he will wait until a few days after the election.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Chichikov said:
I can speak of Washington State -
Sales tax, toll roads, licensing fee, property taxes.
It's fucking stupid and mostly regressive, but I would not lie, clicking "no state taxes" on my turbo tax is worth it all.
Cause fuck doing taxes.

p.s.
They did try to pass a millionaire tax a couple of years ago (which is spearheaded by Bill Gates' father), but it was defeat, thanks to dickwads like Steve Ballmer.
Click to expand...

Sounds awful. Looks like they scurry for every droplet of revenue.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
I eagerly await Rush's mea culpa that he never believed in the Romney campaign and it was not a true representation of what conservatism is, ala Bush in 2006.
Click to expand...
Problem is he didn't pick a primary candidate unless I'm forgetting?

Newt? Or was that only when he was one of the last?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Literally EVERY poll would have to be wrong for these sample questions to be proven right - how likely is that? Not very likely at all. Even if exit polls show dems with a 4 point ID lead in November that'll be enough for Obama to win most states, including Ohio.

I think things will tighten up next month but come on, every poll can't possibly be wrong. That Hewitt interview does a great job of explaining why Ras polls look different: they rely mainly on robocalls to households, with no cellphone outreach. If you're only looking at Ras polls you're exposing yourself as a partisan

edit: final thing. If Obama is truly only losing the elderly vote by 5-10 points, and losing whites by 10-15 points, he's going to win big

edit: up 15% on Medicare in Florida? jesus
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
benjipwns said:
Problem is he didn't pick a primary candidate unless I'm forgetting?

Newt? Or was that only when he was one of the last?
Click to expand...

I guess you are right, I did a quick google search and came back with this recent 'endorsement':

Romney is not the perfect candidate. That does not matter,” he said. “Romney, the best thing he can do is remember this election isn't about him. He may as well be Elmer Fudd as far as we're concerned
Click to expand...
 
T

Tim-E

Member
I'd classify myself as another person who loves the south but is also liberal. There are some more open-minded places here in West Virginia that I'll probably end up moving to once I finish grad school/wife's contract with her current job expires/we save up enough money for a house down payment. But for now I'm living in Coal Country, USA which is pretty damn red. But our families are here, we're both building up some good work experience and we have a nine month old daughter, so it makes sense to be here for now.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
mj1108 said:
He's just pissed. I expect we'll see every right wing nut try to dismiss the polls.
Click to expand...

That's all you could do at this point. There's no way to spin this in a positive direction to Romney. It's possible that Obama could match the states he won in 2008 at this point.
 
V

Vahagn

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Literally EVERY poll would have to be wrong for these sample questions to be proven right - how likely is that? Not very likely at all. Even if exit polls show dems with a 4 point ID lead in November that'll be enough for Obama to win most states, including Ohio.

I think things will tighten up next month but come on, every poll can't possibly be wrong. That Hewitt interview does a great job of explaining why Ras polls look different: they rely mainly on robocalls to households, with no cellphone outreach. If you're only looking at Ras polls you're exposing yourself as a partisan

edit: final thing. If Obama is truly only losing the elderly vote by 5-10 points, and losing whites by 10-15 points, he's going to win big

edit: up 15% on Medicare in Florida? jesus
Click to expand...


The only age group Obama lost in 2008 was 65+ - and that was rather close considering, you know, black and all. Romney has proven himself less qualified and able to be President then McCain and there will be no coming back from the 47% comments. There's nothing he can do to right this ship. His only prayer is an external event or scandel to break before election.


If on the other hand we get an october surprise of "The US thwarted another terror attack on our home soil" (which would be classic Rovian tactics) then obama has the thing in the bag.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
pigeon said:
New Hampshire state motto: LIVE FREE OR DIE

New England basically sorts itself. If you're a sleazy banker, Delaware; if you want a super nice house, Rhode Island; if you're Irish, Massachusetts; if you kind of wish you were Canadian, Vermont; if you hate seat belt laws, New Hampshire (the last state to mandate them). They have no income or sales tax. They were selected for the Free State Project. They've always had libertarian tendencies.



Same answer, really. In both cases, these are New England states that existed before America, had constitutions before America, and established a strong tradition of adherence to certain values that hasn't really changed, even as their other values changed. I'm sure Pennsylvania has some weird political artifacts as well somewhere.
Click to expand...

Delaware is new england now? lol.

I get what you're saying though.
 
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