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[RustyNails]

I mean intimately, even sexually. I'm sure she loves Obama to a degree, but their relationship seems somewhat one sided to me when you look at how she acts whenever they're together. He's always the one reminding her of romantic stuff they did in the past and she goes "ahh yes," he's way more animated, etc. It's like the cheerleader in highschool semi-dating the guy who does her homework

Given Obama's attraction to people who don't like him, and his history of trying to make people love him, it's not particularly surprising.

How big do you think Obama is?

 

[polyh3dron]

Most important image of this election

meh, they should've polled fig-eating apes.

fig-eating apes are the new latte-sipping liberals.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

How big do you think Obama is?

He only got two girls. Says it all!

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

If Obama takes North Carolina:

Purple Strategies 		9/19 	48.0 	46.0 	Obama +2.0
National Research 		9/19 	49.0 	45.0 	Obama +4.0
High Point University 		9/18 	48.0 	44.0 	Obama +4.0
YouGov 				9/14 	44.0 	45.0 	Romney +1.0
Rasmussen 			9/13 	45.0 	51.0 	Romney +6.0
PPP 				9/9 	49.0 	48.0 	Obama +1.0

Does he win with similar margins as in '08?

538 has Romney winning it with a 67% chance, for right now.

That would likely imply him carrying everything from 2008 except for Indiana, so yeah.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Some early voting numbers from Iowa and NC

The latest numbers are 105,669 Democratic ballot requests, 18,542 Republican ones.

That's 10% of of the total votes cast in 2008

Bad news in NC

NORTH CAROLINA reports as of Tuesday morning 66,664 ballot requests with the following party breakdown:

Party Reg
Dem 27.9%
Rep 51.0%
None/Oth 21.1%

But luckily that 66k equals less than 2% of the total votes cast in 2008, so that's good news

 

[Cloudy]

I don't think Obama can win NC again. Virginia would be great though

 

[ivysaur12]

That would likely imply him carrying everything from 2008 except for Indiana, so yeah.

Indiana has been underpolled, too (but yes, is probably going Red).

 

[Hitokage]

As amusing as this unskewed polls debacle is, I remeber back in 2004 a lot of left leaning partisan sites were also advocating weighing by party id and claiming that republicans were being oversampled. Really the same argument happens almost every election.

e: http://www.people-press.org/2004/09/23/party-affiliation-what-it-is-and-what-it-isnt/

Yeah, a bunch of people had to learn their lesson the hard way. Now it's time for the unskewed folks to learn it too.

 

[RustyNails]

He only got two girls. Says it all!

I'd like PD's expert analysis on the subject. His deduction skills are legendary.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Interesting point on the Bachman race

Bachmann's challenger, Minnesota hotel magnate Jim Graves, 58, entered the fray in early April, quickly rallying state Democrats to his side and, perhaps more importantly, convincing Independence Party leaders and candidates to stay out of the mix, putting as much as 10 percent of the electorate up for grabs.

In two of Bachmann's three races, the vote tally for the Independence candidate has exceeded her margin of victory. [...]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS...tory?id=17320034&singlePage=true#.UGMUQ6RSQQE

 

[Hitokage]

If Obama takes North Carolina:

Purple Strategies 		9/19 	48.0 	46.0 	Obama +2.0
National Research 		9/19 	49.0 	45.0 	Obama +4.0
High Point University 		9/18 	48.0 	44.0 	Obama +4.0
YouGov 				9/14 	44.0 	45.0 	Romney +1.0
Rasmussen 			9/13 	45.0 	51.0 	Romney +6.0
PPP 				9/9 	49.0 	48.0 	Obama +1.0

Does he win with similar margins as in '08?

If Obama wins exactly what he did in 2008, then he actually takes in 6 less EVs thanks to the 2010 census.

 

[massoluk]

Interesting point on the Bachman race


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS...tory?id=17320034&singlePage=true#.UGMUQ6RSQQE

Well, that got me cautiously optimistic. If Bachmanns goes under, there will be beer, lots and lots of beer. I'm buying.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Well, that got me cautiously optimistic. If Bachmanns goes under, there will be beer, lots and lots of beer. I'm buying.

Same. I had no idea third parties basically gave her wins in the past. Previously I didn't think she's lose despite the close polls...but now I'm cautiously optimistic

 

[codhand]

LOL, never. Unless it's strictly to fire 1/2 the people working there in overlapping capacity.

Cuz lord knows there's no redundancy in mega corp health insurance.

 

[Kosmo]

Cuz lord knows there's no redundancy in mega corp health insurance.

Cuz lord knows that's a great comparison.

 

[jbug617]

Same. I had no idea third parties basically gave her wins in the past. Previously I didn't think she's lose despite the close polls...but now I'm cautiously optimistic

I wonder if Fox News will pick her up if she loses her seat

 

[Forever]

Most important image of this election

The Midwest really hates rich Northeasterners, huh?

 

[Clevinger]

Interesting point on the Bachman race


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS...tory?id=17320034&singlePage=true#.UGMUQ6RSQQE

Bachmann losing would be the most delicious fucking cherry on top.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Best image from that guy's page.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Same. I had no idea third parties basically gave her wins in the past. Previously I didn't think she's lose despite the close polls...but now I'm cautiously optimistic

Change my name to ABC NEWS and then maybe someone will read my posts. Been saying Bachmann's in trouble do to the no third party thing for months now.

 

[RDreamer]

Best image from that guy's page.

Why does he have the O logo like that? It looks like a pirate. That's all I can see. Is he calling Obama a pirate?

 

[Forever]

Obama is going to beat Romney so hard in the debates that Romney will cross the street whenever he sees a black person for the rest of his life.

 

[Kosmo]

Obama is going to beat Romney so hard in the debates that Romney will cross the street whenever he sees a black person for the rest of his life.

He'll only have to cross 1/2 the time.

 

[snacknuts]

Why does he have the O logo like that? It looks like a pirate. That's all I can see. Is he calling Obama a pirate?

Can Obama prove that he's not a pirate?

 

[Gucci Messiah]

So I saw a poll on CNN this morning that Obama is currently up ~10 points in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?

 

[richiek]

Best image from that guy's page.

The use of Comics Sans makes this a winner. LOL

 

[Byakuya769]

He'll only have to cross 1/2 the time.

Deserves a gif response, but I'm on my phone.

Any takers?

 

[Kosmo]

The use of Comics Sans makes this a winner. LOL

Dan Gilbert approved.

 

[speculawyer]

The economy seems to be shining on Obama as well. Consumer confidence is up, housing market is returning, oil prices have drop >10% over the past few weeks, Europe seems to have stabilized (for now), etc.

Of course a jobs report pushing unemployment below 8% would be the crown but I don't think he'll get that.

 

[Black Mamba]

Cut your post, not necessarily replying, you know our Best-GAF.

I wasn't really talking about any of that, although it's a good post. I'm talking about the Rove and Bush idea that they HAD to turn out the religious right, etc.

I think McCain obviously bombed in that, and Romney isn't doing well.

They'll turn out, but will they turn out enough?

The Bush camp was afraid they wouldn't in 2004 despite being mostly up in the polls for most of the race.

It's part of Romney is fucked. As you note and many others, he wants to defend the good parts of ObamaCare, throw the "gays" a bone, etc. But he needs that swath that hasn't liked him for five years now.

He can't do the Clinton, everybody loves me! He's never been that skilled.

I mean: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd8KQDMZ21w

Yeah, I pretty much agree. I will say that in A close ele goon they do come out because of their Obama hate but they clearly don't trust Romney.

Also, this is the modern day problem for the GOP. Their religious base is far right and the median voter is nowhere near them. They can't win without the middle or far right and unlike in the past the far right is no longer happy without major policies as part of their platform. Bush could appease them twelve years ago but not now. They e become a unified voting bloc at odds with most of the country.

 

[Clevinger]

Dick Morris and The Weekly Standard and The Washington Times (shitty conservative paper) have jumped on the Unskewed Polls bandwagon.

 

[speculawyer]

Best image from that guy's page.

Morman?

not sure if that was intentional or not.

 

[Suikoguy]

The economy seems to be shining on Obama as well. Consumer confidence is up, housing market is returning, oil prices have drop >10% over the past few weeks, Europe seems to have stabilized (for now), etc.

Of course a jobs report pushing unemployment below 8% would be the crown but I don't think he'll get that.

That and another good debate performance may make it a bigger landslide then 2008 was.

 

[gcubed]

Dick Morris and The Weekly Standard and The Washington Times (shitty conservative paper) have jumped on the Unskewed Polls bandwagon.

if you are on the same side as Dick Morris you need to re-evaluate your life

 

[Byakuya769]

Morman?

not sure if that was intentional or not.

Moran all over again.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Dick Morris and The Weekly Standard and The Washington Times (shitty conservative paper) have jumped on the Unskewed Polls bandwagon.

Three potential reasons:

1) Denial.

2) Grist for the delgitimizing of his election

<tinhat>3) Pre-justification cover for the results from election suppression and rigged voting machines.</tinhat>

 

[Clevinger]

Three potential reasons:

1) Denial.

2) Grist for the delgitimizing of his election

<tinhat>3) Pre-justification cover for the results from election suppression and rigged voting machines.</tinhat>

4. To get Republicans to still get out to vote for downticket races.

 

[benjipwns]

Morris has actually been on it for a while now. The site started in part because of his bashing the party weights.

Source: the site itself

if you are on the same side as Dick Morris you need to re-evaluate your life

Power Plays is still an alright book.

Yeah, I pretty much agree. I will say that in A close ele goon they do come out because of their Obama hate but they clearly don't trust Romney.

Also, this is the modern day problem for the GOP. Their religious base is far right and the median voter is nowhere near them. They can't win without the middle or far right and unlike in the past the far right is no longer happy without major policies as part of their platform. Bush could appease them twelve years ago but not now. They e become a unified voting bloc at odds with most of the country.

W did have that odd skill of playing every part of the GOP. He got his dad's East Coasters, played the south, religious right, got into Hispanics, neo-cons, etc. Could do the blue collar "beer" guy. (Especially against Kerry/Gore.)

Really, in retrospect, he was a great candidate.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

4. To get Republicans to still get out to vote for downticket races.

Yours is the right answer but mine are more entertaining.

 

[dinazimmerman]

Thought some of you guys might find this interesting:

The Expectations Game In Politics

David Axelrod, a senior campaign adviser for President Barack Obama&#8217;s reelection campaign, trash-talked Mitt Romney on Sunday, calling last week&#8217;s Republican National Convention &#8220;a terrible failure&#8221; and claiming Romney did not receive a polling bounce.​

Presidential campaign staff are always saying stuff like that. How badly the other side is doing. Promoting polls that show their own candidate doing well and dissing polls that don&#8217;t. While that seems like natural fighting spirit, from the strategic point of view this is sometimes questionable strategy.

If you had the power to implant arbitrary expectations into the minds of your supporters and those of your rival, what would they be?

1. You wouldn&#8217;t want your supporters to think that your candidate was very likely to lose.
2. But neither would you want your supporters to think that your candidate was very likely to win.
3. Instead you want your supporters to believe that the race is very close.
4. But you want to plant the opposite beliefs in the mind of the opposition. You want them to think that the race is already decided. It probably doesn&#8217;t matter which way.

All of this because you want to motivate your supporters and lure the opposition into complacency. If you are David Axelrod and your candidate has a lead in the polls and you can&#8217;t just conjure up arbitrary expectations but you can nudge your supporter&#8217;s mood one way or the other, you want to play up the opposition not denigrate them.

Unless its only the opposition that is paying attention. Indeed suppose that campaign staffers know that the audience that is paying closest attention to their public statements is the opposition. Then right now we would expect to be hearing Democrats saying they are winning and Republicans saying their own campaign is in disarray.

From blog: http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/

Interested to read your thoughts...

 

[Stumpokapow]

I mean intimately, even sexually. I'm sure she loves Obama to a degree, but their relationship seems somewhat one sided to me when you look at how she acts whenever they're together. He's always the one reminding her of romantic stuff they did in the past and she goes "ahh yes," he's way more animated, etc. It's like the cheerleader in highschool semi-dating the guy who does her homework

Given Obama's attraction to people who don't like him, and his history of trying to make people love him, it's not particularly surprising.

Without falling for the bait, I would say that psycho-analysis of Great Men is bad enough when Historians do it with access to family members, loved ones, and piles and piles of private papers, it's worse when it's basically done as Kremlinology--analyzing someone's psychological predispositions based on their carefully cultivated public face.

 

[Chichikov]

Thought some of you guys might find this interesting:

From blog: http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/

Interested to read your thoughts...

You're forgetting about the money.
Donating to a loosing campaign is potentially worse than throwing money away, you might be getting on the wrong side of the soon to be president.

I think Axelrod is playing that angle.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I'm really loving all these UNSKEWED polls mania. It's amazing to see cognitive dissonance and the making of a reality bubble in front of your eyes.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Without falling for the bait, I would say that psycho-analysis of Great Men is bad enough when Historians do it with access to family members, loved ones, and piles and piles of private papers, it's worse when it's basically done as Kremlinology--analyzing someone's psychological predispositions based on their carefully cultivated public face.

Even more so when it creates a mental image (after a suggestion) of Obama banging Hillary.

 

[gcubed]

I'm really loving all these UNSKEWED polls mania. It's amazing to see cognitive dissonance and the making of a reality bubble being born in front of your eyes.

we watched it during Kerry/Bush, but it wasn't quite as organized as this

 

[titiklabingapat]

we watched it during Kerry/Bush, but it wasn't quite as organized as this

2004 was just denial and bargaining of the (almost) inevitable. This is just outright fabrication.

 

[Gotchaye]

Thought some of you guys might find this interesting:

From blog: http://cheaptalk.org/2012/09/26/the-expectations-game-in-politics/

Interested to read your thoughts...

I don't buy that that attentional difference really exists.

And there's obviously another reason for trashing everything the other side's done. Bigshot campaign people can get their take on events incorporated into the media narrative surrounding them. The RNC is only a terrible failure to the extent that it actually fails to move voters, and the extent to which it moves voters depends on voters' perceptions of the event. You always always always want to try to convince people that your opposition's events are crap and that their attempts to move the polls are failing, because if you can convince people of that then you become correct.

This is just the expectations game. Campaigns tend to want to downplay their future prospects and hype their past accomplishments; you always want the current narrative to be that your guy is doing surprisingly well while the other guy is doing surprisingly poorly. "Surprisingly" signals new information to voters that can get them to update their own opinions.

You're seeing some conservatives talk about how the Romney campaign is in "disarray" because it is in such a shambles that people have already started heading for the door. It's not strategy on Romney's part.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Fracking about to take over the world (PBS)

 

[NathanMcMahon]

I mean intimately, even sexually. I'm sure she loves Obama to a degree, but their relationship seems somewhat one sided to me when you look at how she acts whenever they're together. He's always the one reminding her of romantic stuff they did in the past and she goes "ahh yes," he's way more animated, etc. It's like the cheerleader in highschool semi-dating the guy who does her homework

Given Obama's attraction to people who don't like him, and his history of trying to make people love him, it's not particularly surprising.

Hey PD, do you cry to yourself while you masturbate to that fantasy scenario you made up there?

 

[gcubed]

Fracking about to take over the world (PBS)

I was driving home from work yesterday and heard this weird ad on the radio, started listening closer and it was an environmental attack ad on natural gas and fracking... long and pretty brutal. Brought to you by the oil industry.