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[Jackpot]

I don't think anyone is doing anything on guns. It is a dead issue in reality but it is still used to fire up the troops on the right with fear.

They are comin' for ya!

I like how "BLACK" is the word they chose to bold in that title. Good subliminal messaging.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Way too big of a drop in jobless claims. 359000 from 385000

 

[The Librarian]

Way too big of a drop in jobless claims. 359000 from 385000

In addition to this, maybe not it's not so farfetched.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

In addition to this, maybe not it's not so farfetched.

Is that referring to last month's revised? If so, the monthly estimates are so meaningless at current employment levels. Error bar is +/- 100K, which means that last month's estimate of 100K (taken as a middling-to-disappointing number) was in actuality anything from 0 - 200,000. Or from "disastrous" to "highly encouraging".

They should really just ignore the estimates and report the revised with a month delay. Not that that's going to happen.


Edit: I can't read numbers good and now see that it has to be referring to the total revised for Obama's term. Still interested to see the revised for last month and my larger point still stands!

 

[HylianTom]

I love the report on AM radio this morning: Romney supporters yelling at him at events, telling him to "be more aggressive." Right as the reporter says this, an audio clip of an angry-sounding guy screaming "GET TOUGH!" (at a ropeline, I'm guessing) is played.

The frustration seems palpable. Even my conservative coworkers have largely gone silent, while the libs are giggly, like we're all in on the big joke. This is going to be a fun 40 days.

 

[markatisu]

I don't understand the whole aggressive argument, what is Romney supposed to do? I mean the GOP has dedicated 4 years to tearing down Obama at every chance

Romney can go balls to walls hard on Obama but it wont matter as the electorate has heard it all.

 

[Suikoguy]

I love the report on AM radio this morning: Romney supporters yelling at him at events, telling him to "be more aggressive." Right as the reporter says this, an audio clip of an angry-sounding guy screaming "GET TOUGH!" (at a ropeline, I'm guessing) is played.

The frustration seems palpable. Even my conservative coworkers have largely gone silent, while the libs are giggly, like we're all in on the big joke. This is going to be a fun 40 days.

If the narrative somehow switches to how Romney supporters are yelling at Romney...

I really have no idea how it would play out, as I don't think we have much a previous historic example to compare it too.

 

[codhand]

Chuck just teased early voting looking good for Barry

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/iowa-early-voting-obama-mitt-romney_n_1918609.html

 

[HylianTom]

If the narrative somehow switches to how Romney supporters are yelling at Romney...

I really have no idea how it would play out, as I don't think we have much a previous historic example to compare it too.

I'm wondering how long it'll take until things degrade to that 2008 level, with shouts of "kill him!" and "he's a damn muslin!" at rallies..

 

[Black Republican]

NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of NV, NH, and NC tonight at 6:30 pm ET

my guess

NV : 49% Obama - 44% Romney
NH : 48 % Obama - 46% Romney
NC : 45 % Obama - 49% Romney

 

[Vestal]

I'm wondering how long it'll take until things degrade to that 2008 level, with shouts of "kill him!" and "he's a damn muslin!" at rallies..

October.. However the rhetoric coming from the right has not been as vile as it was with Palin, with the "paling around terrorist" or the real America vs Obamas America.

 

[kaching]

I like that for some, apparently outright lying about your opponent isn't aggressive enough.

 

[Cloudy]

How does Chris Jansing look so good at 55? Hottest woman on MSNBC by far

 

[Forever]

What is this from?

 

[RustyNails]

In addition to this, maybe not it's not so farfetched.

Wait what? How can you do an upward revision of 386k jobs?

 

[electricpirate]

http://video.foxnews.com/v/18629663...e-mainstream-media/?playlist_id=1040983441001

so the good poll numbers are about suppressing gop turnout? oh lord

My god the delusions. I couldn't watch past the 4 mintue mark "Pollsters are using the 2008 likely voter models!" "Pollsters are purposfully trying to shift this race!"

 

[tranciful]

This reaction to the polls is hilarious.

edit: I like how he claims "people like to vote for the winner" suggesting it won't hurt democrat enthusiasm as much as it will hurt republican enthusiasm. Pretty sure there's plenty of studies to show that the complete opposite is true -- people naturally root for the underdog.

 

[kaching]

Bets on how many Survey ID laws we'll get in the next 2 years?

 

[tranciful]

Bets on how many Survey ID laws we'll get in the next 2 years?

Probably not very many if you look at the polls and Republicans don't keep much power

 

[Forever]

Bets on how many Survey ID laws we'll get in the next 2 years?

They'll just try to abolish the 14th Amendment.

 

[teiresias]

I don't understand the whole aggressive argument, what is Romney supposed to do? I mean the GOP has dedicated 4 years to tearing down Obama at every chance

Romney can go balls to walls hard on Obama but it wont matter as the electorate has heard it all.

These rally attendees berating Romney are the same people that were yelling "terrorist," "Muslim," and other such nonsense at McCain rallies last cycle. Obviously, what they want Romney to do is actually call Obama the n-word in his stump speech, I'm convinced that's how ridiculous many of them are.

 

[gcubed]

Wait what? How can you do an upward revision of 386k jobs?

that can't possibly be a one time upward revision for the month. thats just insane, how would they be that far off?

 

[eBay Huckster]

Wait what? How can you do an upward revision of 386k jobs?

probably a combined revision of the last several months

because there's no way in hell that's all just from august (lest this actually become 1984)

 

[Basileus777]

that can't possibly be a one time upward revision for the month. thats just insane, how would they be that far off?

PD cooked the numbers to enhance his posting here.

 

[RustyNails]

probably a combined revision of the last several months

because there's no way in hell that's all just from august (lest this actually become 1984)

Or it could be Obama's thugs have reached BLS office...

 

[Averon]

Jesus.

This poll trutherism running rampant in conservative circles is hilarious. This is a clear, unvarnished view of what denial and desperation looks like when someone, who created and live in their own little bubble/reality, is confronted with the real world that strongly contradicts their worldview. As far as the right is concerned, pollsters are the new ACORN in their eyes.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Or it could be Obama's thugs have reached BLS office...

or maybe he just hired 386,000 thugs for that specific purpose (for some reason)

e: and also to simultaneously threaten every polling outfit except rasmussen! GIVE US THE UNSKEWED JOB NUMBERS

 

[electricpirate]

probably a combined revision of the last several months

because there's no way in hell that's all just from august (lest this actually become 1984)

They normally revise 2 to 3 months at a time, so that would be at least 100k+ per month.

That seems like a stretch. Also, I thought the BLS was pretty good about not leaking data, isn't this normally part of the monthly employment report?

 

[BLACKLAC]

What is this from?

Ksenia Solo - Lost Girl

 

[StopMakingSense]

that can't possibly be a one time upward revision for the month. thats just insane, how would they be that far off?

Somebody got a call from David Axelrod.

 

[Forever]

Ksenia Solo - Lost Girl

ty

Jesus.

This poll trutherism running rampant in conservative circles is hilarious. This is a clear, unvarnished view of what denial and desperation looks like when someone, who created and live in their own little bubble/reality, is confronted with the real world that strongly contradicts their worldview. As far as the right is concerned, pollsters are the new ACORN in their eyes.

I find it legitimately scary, actually. These people really believe it, and when Romney loses they're going to demand to know why reality didn't conform to their fantasies. Instead of questioning those fantasies, they're going to call shenanigans on the election. These people own guns. It's dangerous stuff.

 

[thefro]

They normally revise 2 to 3 months at a time, so that would be at least 100k+ per month.

That seems like a stretch. Also, I thought the BLS was pretty good about not leaking data, isn't this normally part of the monthly employment report?

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesprelbmk.htm

Basically the economy gained 386k more jobs from April 2011 to March 2012 than they thought from their estimates (using the real numbers from state tax data). So that puts President Obama in positive territory for jobs numbers in his term and puts the private-sector job number he'll be talking about at 5 million jobs.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...eated-386-000-more-jobs-in-year-to-march-2012

 

[pigeon]

ty



I find it legitimately scary, actually. These people really believe it, and when Romney loses they're going to demand to know why reality didn't conform to their fantasies. Instead of questioning those fantasies, they're going to call shenanigans on the election. These people own guns. It's dangerous stuff.

Don't worry. Sure, there's denial and anger, but after that you get bargaining. That's when we pass the Jobs Act.

 

[RustyNails]

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesprelbmk.htm

Basically the economy gained 386k more jobs from April 2011 to March 2012 than they thought from their estimates (using the real numbers from tax data). So that puts President Obama in positive territory for jobs numbers in his term and puts the private-sector job number he'll be talking about at 5 million jobs.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...eated-386-000-more-jobs-in-year-to-march-2012

If that's the case, then the 400k people estimated to have left workforce (reason for UE rate drop) is negated.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Doesn't this also mean the UE rate should drop .1-.2% next month assuming no other substantial changes in the labour force?

 

[Mario]

This poll trutherism running rampant in conservative circles is hilarious. This is a clear, unvarnished view of what denial and desperation looks like when someone, who created and live in their own little bubble/reality, is confronted with the real world that strongly contradicts their worldview. As far as the right is concerned, pollsters are the new ACORN in their eyes.

I imagine it is hard to accept numbers which seem to contradict what they have been told "the American People" want for the last few years.

 

[RustyNails]

Doesn't this also mean the UE rate should drop .1-.2% next month assuming no other substantial changes in the labour force?

The revision will be publicized with Feb 2013 report.

 

[Averon]

ty



I find it legitimately scary, actually. These people really believe it, and when Romney loses they're going to demand to know why reality didn't conform to their fantasies. Instead of questioning those fantasies, they're going to call shenanigans on the election. These people own guns. It's dangerous stuff.

Yup. Which is why the notion of the GOP moderating themselves in respond to an Obama re-electing is naive. The GOP and its base needs to go through a couple more humiliating defeats before it gets through their thick heads that their conspiracies/fantasies isn't the real world.

 

[speculawyer]

My god the delusions. I couldn't watch past the 4 mintue mark "Pollsters are using the 2008 likely voter models!" "Pollsters are purposfully trying to shift this race!"

Yeh, because the country has certainly become more white and angry since then.

 

[Blergmeister]

The revision will be publicized with Feb 2013 report.

He should pull a Scott Walker and release the numbers now!

 

[eBay Huckster]

The revision will be publicized with Feb 2013 report.

Evidently this is a hypothetical where Obama gets his thugs to force the BLS to publicize it with the October jobs report.

Spoiler

Or maybe I didn't read that link closely enough. Whoops.

...Still expecting UE to fall by that much anyway.

 

[GhaleonEB]

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesprelbmk.htm

Basically the economy gained 386k more jobs from April 2011 to March 2012 than they thought from their estimates (using the real numbers from state tax data). So that puts President Obama in positive territory for jobs numbers in his term and puts the private-sector job number he'll be talking about at 5 million jobs.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...eated-386-000-more-jobs-in-year-to-march-2012

It looks like they have not yet updated their actual historical data, which still show Obama's term (from February 2009 to present) in negative territory.

 

[Forever]

Yup. Which is why the notion of the GOP moderating themselves in respond to an Obama re-electing is naive. The GOP and its base needs to go through a couple more humiliating defeats before it gets through their thick heads that their conspiracies/fantasies isn't the real world.

This level of delusion and hate can only end in violence.

 

[codhand]

My god the delusions. I couldn't watch past the 4 mintue mark "Pollsters are using the 2008 likely voter models!" "Pollsters are purposfully trying to shift this race!"

You missed the gem at the end,

"I like Poles, I like the Polish people, I like Polish hot dogs, I just don't like Polls."

 

[HylianTom]

I imagine it is hard to accept numbers which seem to contradict what they have been told "the American People" want for the last few years.

You aren't kidding.

There seems to be a theme in rural parts here where it is assumed that if you're white, you're "One of Us Real 'Murikans Who Hates that Negroid Muslim." Very, very insulated. So if they live in this bubble where the liberal rural minority usually stays quiet while the conservatives rail and whine and hate loudly and frequently without being challenged, while backed-up by A.M. radio during the day and Fox News/freerepublic.com at night, I can see how they create this world.

And watching them see this world implode on November 6th will be very entertaining.

 

[KingGondo]

You missed the gem at the end,

"I like Poles, I like the Polish people, I like Polish hot dogs, I just don't like Polls."

"Especially when they don't reinforce my preconceived notions!"

 

[polyh3dron]

Remember when PD said how presidential Romney was?

Those were the times.

 

[Incognito]

early voting line at a location in Iowa this morning..

keep your eye out for the club wielding black panthers...

 

[TacticalFox88]

Remember when PD said how presidential Romney was?

Those were the times.

Remember those times PD was actually right about something?

Yeah those were the---


wait a minute.

 

[Effect]

I don't understand the whole aggressive argument, what is Romney supposed to do? I mean the GOP has dedicated 4 years to tearing down Obama at every chance

Romney can go balls to walls hard on Obama but it wont matter as the electorate has heard it all.

That is still one of the most interesting things about this election. They have basically desensitized people to attacks directed at the president. It's just one of the things republicans do now so its easy to ignore them and not even allow them to register. It certainly didn't help that their attacks are completely opposite of what reality is and things that can be seen in an extremely obvious way.