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[Basileus777]

Our new IA-4 poll for @CREDOSuperPAC finds Steve King leading Christie Vilsack only 48-45

Also for @CredoSuperPAC we find Sean Duffy leading Pat Kreitlow only 48-44 in WI-7

PublicPolicyPolling

 

[ConfusingJazz]

On one hand, it sucks that my vote is so meaningless since Oklahoma would vote for Hitler over Obama... On the other hand, at least I won't be bombarded by insane amounts of ads before election day.

I am Texas, so you would think I wouldn't have to deal with them. However, I have DirecTV, and the Obama campaign was smart, and about half of all commercial breaks have an Obama ad in them.

 

[PhoenixDark]

When you think about it it makes no sense. Who pays attention to poll results? Political junkies. The very type of people who will always vote no matter what. The wishy-washy voters who might skip presidential elections aren't going to be reading up on the latest poll results and refreshing Gallup every day.

True but even those casual folks tend to recognize the general political atmosphere around them. Right now, most people believe Obama will win; they may have just seen a poll at the top of their USA Today paper, or while switching channels, but they know.

If you're a hardcore republican (or democrat) you certainly pay attention to polls. I hear people talking about it all the time at work, even at grocery stores lol. So if you're a tea party type who already doesn't trust Romney, hearing he's losing just might keep you home. Likewise there were plenty of democrats who stayed home in 2010. I know a lot of people didn't give a shit about the Michigan governor race, in part due to how horrible Jennifer Granholm was, and basically let Rick Snyder win.

 

[Aaron Strife]

PublicPolicyPolling

Incumbents under 50. Looks like victory.

If Democrats picked up those seats they'd probably be on their way to a majority. Encouraging, along with the numbers in TX-14 (Ron Paul's old district)

 

[KingGondo]

I am Texas, so you would think I wouldn't have to deal with them. However, I have DirecTV, and the Obama campaign was smart, and about half of all commercial breaks have an Obama ad in them.

I miss DirecTV. Moved into a new house in March and I'm stuck with cable because of trees.

 

[pigeon]

I wonder how much of Obama's boost in the polls over the last week or two has been directly due to the 47% shit.

Libya was the 11th/12th, 47% was the 17th/18th.

Here's Gallup:

5th to 11th -- Obama +7
6th to 12th -- Obama +6
...
10th to 16th -- Obama +2
11th to 17th -- Obama +1
12 to 18th -- even

You can see here that, as the days before Libya leave the sample, Obama trends downwards all the way to even -- whoever Gallup interviews, they weren't happy. But at this point, 47% starts to hit the sample.

15th to 21st -- even
16th to 22nd -- Obama +2
...
18th to 24th -- Obama +3
19th to 25th -- Obama +6

At this point all of the data is from at least a day after the 47% story broke. I dunno. TA might be right, it could just be a complete accident. But it's a striking reversal.

 

[Plinko]

I'll never understand the idea that pollsters are trying to "shift" the race. If anything, I would think that would encourage more democrats to stay home and republicans to get out and vote, much like what happened to Kerry when exit polls had him winning in exit polls at noon.

 

[Cheebo]

True but even those casual folks tend to recognize the general political atmosphere around them. Right now, most people believe Obama will win; they may have just seen a poll at the top of their USA Today paper, or while switching channels, but they know.

If you're a hardcore republican (or democrat) you certainly pay attention to polls. I hear people talking about it all the time at work, even at grocery stores lol. So if you're a tea party type who already doesn't trust Romney, hearing he's losing just might keep you home. Likewise there were plenty of democrats who stayed home in 2010. I know a lot of people didn't give a shit about the Michigan governor race, in part due to how horrible Jennifer Granholm was, and basically let Rick Snyder win.

I got the impression after the luster of the Palin pick wore off in September the GOP basically gave up on the election. They were resigned to the fact McCain was going to lose. I don't think they have reached that point yet. They hate Obama far too much to let themselves think he could possibily win. That is why you are seeing all this unskewedpolls nonsense of which didn't happen in 2008 despite similiar polling numbers.

 

[KingGondo]

I'll never understand the idea that pollsters are trying to "shift" the race. If anything, I would think that would encourage more democrats to stay home and republicans to get out and vote, much like what happened to Kerry when exit polls had him winning in exit polls at noon.

You're acting like conspiracy theories have some sort of logic requirement.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Libya was the 11th/12th, 47% was the 17th/18th.

Here's Gallup:

5th to 11th -- Obama +7
6th to 12th -- Obama +6
...
10th to 16th -- Obama +2
11th to 17th -- Obama +1
12 to 18th -- even

You can see here that, as the days before Libya leave the sample, Obama trends downwards all the way to even -- whoever Gallup interviews, they weren't happy. But at this point, 47% starts to hit the sample.

15th to 21st -- even
16th to 22nd -- Obama +2
...
18th to 24th -- Obama +3
19th to 25th -- Obama +6

At this point all of the data is from at least a day after the 47% story broke. I dunno. TA might be right, it could just be a complete accident. But it's a striking reversal.

Yup yesterday was the first day the 47% comment tracked. Interestingly, four years ago we saw similar movement due to McCain's disastrous response the financial crisis; that happened on September 24th, and a week later he was toast.

 

[Thai]

whoops...i'm a moron

 

[Forever]

At this point all of the data is from at least a day after the 47% story broke. I dunno. TA might be right, it could just be a complete accident. But it's a striking reversal.

Very interesting.

I wonder if Gingrich would've done any better if Nitt Nomney hadn't won the Nom Nom.

 

[Cloudy]

Seems like it's not just 47%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...a53a0e-0822-11e2-858a-5311df86ab04_story.html

Voters in three critical swing states broadly oppose the sweeping changes to Medicare proposed by Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan and, by big margins, favor President Obama over Mitt Romney on the issue, according to new state polls by The Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Among seniors, the issue rivals the economy as a top voting issue, undercutting Romney’s appeal in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Generally, the more voters focus on Medicare, the more likely they are to support the president’s bid for reelection.

Nobody wants freakin' vouchers. Why do republicans think this shit will fly even with folks who aren't anywhere close to being eligible yet.

 

[pigeon]

Seems like it's not just 47%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...a53a0e-0822-11e2-858a-5311df86ab04_story.html

Nobody wants freakin' vouchers. Why do republicans think this shit will fly even with folks who aren't anywhere close to being eligible yet.

The best part is that this is literally exactly what happened with the Ryan budget in the first place, and how Ryan originally became the third most unpopular Republican in the country.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57617.html

It's pretty amazing that the hard right were able to talk Romney into taking the pitcher back to the well when he already knew it was FULL OF POISON.

 

[reilo]

Obama is now in the 50%+ on Job Approval and Voter Support on Gallup.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Seems like it's not just 47%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...a53a0e-0822-11e2-858a-5311df86ab04_story.html



Nobody wants freakin' vouchers. Why do republicans think this shit will fly even with folks who aren't anywhere close to being eligible yet.

I bet conservatives will still blame Romney for the loss, and hand wring that if only Ryan got to be more specific things would be different. Sorry, most Americans do not support vouchered health care, even if a handsome dude is selling it.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

I'll never understand the idea that pollsters are trying to "shift" the race. If anything, I would think that would encourage more democrats to stay home and republicans to get out and vote, much like what happened to Kerry when exit polls had him winning in exit polls at noon.

It's not. This is about the down ticket races, and the down ticket races only.

If Republican enthusiasm dies down, you could not only end up with a Obama landslide, the Republicans could lose a few senate seats, and have a slimmer majority or even a loss in the House.

 

[Forever]

Obama is perpetually blessed with terrible opponents who invariably self-destruct.

Even Hillary Clinton went straight crazy as the primaries dragged on.

 

[speculawyer]

Ugh when have I ever suggested that?

I didn't say you suggested it . . . but all those Romney bumper stickers at the gun store? Some of them.

Yeah the political stuff is goofy, but luckily at the one I'm going to it's mostly good stuff for sale, notwithstanding the tacky t-shirts, bumper stickers, or iodine tablets (though that guy always has great deals on 223 and 45ACP). It's a lot of fun if you've never been to one, it's almost like going to a museum..since one guy is always trying to sell his STG-44, and one guy had a transferable MP5 and we chatted about movie guns and prop houses. I'd say the cool and useful stuff outweighs the crap tables 10 to 1 if not more.

These guys.

 

[snacknuts]

Joe Donnelly beating Richard Mourdock 40-38 in a new poll of Indiana Senate.

Not an internal from either side.

I really, really hope Mourdock loses. He is the embodiment of everything that is wrong in Washington.

 

[Guevara]

Obama is perpetually blessed with terrible opponents who invariably self-destruct.

Even Hillary Clinton went straight crazy as the primaries dragged on.

That's true and Obama's been pretty lucky, but still the no-drama, few mistakes campaigns Obama's been known for probably drive people slowly crazy.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Even Hillary Clinton went straight crazy as the primaries dragged on.

Really? I don't recall that happening.

I recall Obama outcampaigning her by raising more money and hitting her on NAFTA in crucial midwestern primaries that eventually won the day.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

Obama is perpetually blessed with terrible opponents who invariably self-destruct.

Even Hillary Clinton went straight crazy as the primaries dragged on.

It's also because Obama is one of the most level headed and coolest (in terms of not being hot headed, not jazz cool) politicians around. He is not afraid to let the other guys make mistakes, and somehow lies traps down everywhere. The way they played the contraception debacle in the spring was some of the best politicking you will ever see.

 

[speculawyer]

Speaking of Ohio, I received 4 political-related calls just yesterday. Upping my total to 7 since Sunday night. This election is going to suck.

Yeah, those fuckers left a huge loophole in the do-not-call list for politicians.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

Really? I don't recall that happening.

I recall Obama outcampaigning her by raising more money and hitting her on NAFTA in crucial midwestern primaries that eventually won the day.

The two that pop out for me are the assassination thing and the running across a Bosnian airstrip.

 

[neoism]

sam jackson is the man!

 

[electricpirate]

It's also because Obama is one of the most level headed and coolest (in terms of not being hot headed, not jazz cool) politicians around. He is not afraid to let the other guys make mistakes, and somehow lies traps down everywhere. The way they played the contraception debacle in the spring was some of the best politicking you will ever see.

I've kind of had this theory in my head that Obama's mistakes in 2011 budget negotiation and such are going to end up giving him some seriously strong bargaining chips in 2013. Obama screwed up negotiations then, but republicans screwed them up even worse, now Obama gets to sit pretty and look good.

 

[Zzoram]

It's also because Obama is one of the most level headed and coolest (in terms of not being hot headed, not jazz cool) politicians around. He is not afraid to let the other guys make mistakes, and somehow lies traps down everywhere. The way they played the contraception debacle in the spring was some of the best politicking you will ever see.

Yep. Obama is very calm and calculating and frankly, boring. That's why he infuriates people and that's why his opponents self destruct. He doesn't do anything scandalous for people to latch onto. His opponents want to see a scandal so bad that they start to imagine them to satisfy that need. The result is that Obama opponents are fighting against an imaginary Obama that they want to see, not the real Obama. The Clint Eastwood Chair skit was the perfect embodiment of this phenomenon.

 

[Officerrob]

Romney had an event today that only held 200 people? Who the hell is running that campaign?

 

[Forever]

Really? I don't recall that happening.

"Shame on you Barack Obama!"
Obama's support is weakening among hard working Americans, white Americans
McCain is more qualified than Obama
Robert Kennedy was assassinated in June

Wolfson read the full Shuster quote to her verbatim: “Doesn’t it seem as if Chelsea is sort of being pimped out in some weird sort of way?”

Clinton had long before accepted that it was open season on her and her husband on cable and the Web. But this was something else again. Some cable bloviator had referred to her daughter, in effect, as a prostitute.

Another extended silence filled the air, until Hillary spoke again. Her throat catching, her voice quaking, she wasn’t angry, she was distraught—and clearly in tears. How could he say that? How can they get away with that? It’s one thing for them to go after me; it’s another thing for them to go after my daughter. Where were the women’s groups? “If they let them get away with this,” Clinton said, “they deserve what they get.” Still crying, she kept rambling—until, out of nowhere, patched in from the road by one of her aides, an unexpected voice piped up. “Hi, Mom, it’s me,” Chelsea said. “I’m okay.”

Hillary’s avoidance of ringing up superdelegates had long driven Ickes and others in Ballston to distraction. From Texas and Ohio onward, with a loaded gun pressed against her temple, she finally got with the program. The calls she made were softer in tone, but not much different in substance, than her husband’s. Citing her strength among white voters in rural Ohio and Indiana, she would refer elliptically to the racial attitudes that she believed would keep them from pulling the lever for Obama in the fall. “You know how people are,” she’d say.

Yet after Indiana and North Carolina, the Clintons realized that highlighting Obama’s existing vulnerabilities would do little to reverse the tide of superdelegates flowing into his column. Desperately, feverishly, they clung to the hope that a bombshell of some kind would fall from the sky and explode on top of him. A corps of conspiracy theorists around them encouraged such notions. Penn believed that a late-breaking story on Rezko might disqualify Obama. Blumenthal was obsessed with the “whitey tape,” and so were the Clintons, who not only believed that it existed but felt that there was a chance it might emerge in time to save Hillary. “They’ve got a tape, they’ve got a tape,” she told her aides excitedly. It just goes to show, Hillary added, “You never know what can happen."

 

[polyh3dron]

The two that pop out for me are the assassination thing and the running across a Bosnian airstrip.

lol that bosnia thing was great.

remember this video? http://youtu.be/uHVEDq6RVXc

and that "pimped out" thing was so overblown it's ridiculous. he didn't really mean that hillary was sending chelsea out to have sex with people for money. equally as overblown was hillary's reaction to it.

And yeah that Robert Kennedy thing was Hillary breaking down and grasping at straws. It was pretty despicable.

 

[Plinko]

You're acting like conspiracy theories have some sort of logic requirement.

LOL...true, true.

 

[Dude Abides]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_X-RoRghAY
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/08/clinton-obama-not-winning_n_100763.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/04/clinton-mccain-has-more-e_n_89758.html
http://articles.nydailynews.com/200...llary-clinton-clinton-supporter-assassination

The only thing straight crazy about those incidents is how they got blown out of all proportion.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Very interesting.

I wonder if Gingrich would've done any better if Nitt Nomney hadn't won the Nom Nom.

Fuck no. If Romney has likability issues, I don't think you could do much worse than Gingrich...because even Santorum...while really really fucking awful, can still rightfully say, he's not Newt Gingrich.

Let's be honest The Cain Train was the right choice and voters picked the wrong one. I mean Cain may be an idiot, but in actually can do useful things with science and design...isn't an idiot. Mitt can't claim to have the knowledge levels that Cain does.

Plus Cain Train WOULD HAVE run all over Hope and Change....actually what is the official slogan for Obama's Campaign?

 

[Zzoram]

Fuck no. If Romney has likability issues, I don't think you could do much worse than Gingrich...because even Santorum...while really really fucking awful, can still rightfully say, he's not Newt Gingrich.

Let's be honest The Cain Train was the right choice and voters picked the wrong one. I mean Cain may be an idiot, but in actually can do useful things with science and design...isn't an idiot. Mitt can't claim to have the knowledge levels that Cain does.

Plus Cain Train WOULD HAVE run all over Hope and Change....actually what is the official slogan for Obama's Campaign?

Forward.

Cain was too rapey to win. He had 3 women say he grabbed them, and the legal settlements and HR records to prove it. He would've done even worse among women than Romney.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

Fuck no. If Romney has likability issues, I don't think you could do much worse than Gingrich...because even Santorum...while really really fucking awful, can still rightfully say, he's not Newt Gingrich.

Let's be honest The Cain Train was the right choice and voters picked the wrong one. I mean Cain may be an idiot, but in actually can do useful things with science and design...isn't an idiot. Mitt can't claim to have the knowledge levels that Cain does.

Plus Cain Train WOULD HAVE run all over Hope and Change....actually what is the official slogan for Obama's Campaign?

 

[RustyNails]

I wouldn't make too much of it. The Romney campaign has been outspent (early on), out-campaigned (in the swing states) and had a tremendous amount of negative coverage leading up to that point.

Plus all the information I had seen said that most of the 'undecideds' were lean Obama. So, as they come around it was bound to help him.

Are you suggesting that Romney circus had nothing to do with the fact that now he's lagging Obama? Yeah the Obama's summer of ads against Romney was relentless. We used to see the Firms ads in friggin Georgia. Oh and since now we're in Kansas, I've seen countless Obama ads (including the Bill Clinton one). The closest Republican ads I've seen are the energy ads (I'm an energy voter!!), and the one about the Pledge that some offshoot conservative superpac is airing. But I think it's more because Kansas City is joined in both MO and KS, and Obama campaign was aiming at MO but the market allowed it in KS as well.

It's really surprising that Obama's reach has stretched beyond swing states and into red/lean red states. But I'm pretty sure Obama would've had tougher time if Romney wasn't a walking bag of clowns.

 

[Forever]

The only thing straight crazy about those incidents is how they got blown out of all proportion.

"They've got a tape, they've got a tape!"

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

I didn't say you suggested it . . . but all those Romney bumper stickers at the gun store? Some of them.



These guys.

No, you are right, it's just regular OT lacks more subtlety in it's arguments, I apologize.

That said I think some of them would just vote Republican anyway if the candidate was for the Dems was a WASP...then again rural Dem's in PA are interesting (but I'm still pretty close to Philly vs Murtha type Dem's being around).

Oh last time some group called Kitchen Table Patriots (no fucking clue) was collecting money outside (the store also lets Vet groups and girls scouts and such collect) and I overheard one saying, "We're not saying Romeny is perfect, but he'll stop the bleeding." I think the fact they had to say that about the Candidate shows how fucked Romney is. lol Originally till I got close out of my car I though it was a Vet group so I gather my loose change in my car...got out started walking, change stayed in pocked...and I then got a Ruger 10/22!

 

[PhoenixDark]

lol that bosnia thing was great.

remember this video? http://youtu.be/uHVEDq6RVXc

and that "pimped out" thing was so overblown it's ridiculous. he didn't really mean that hillary was sending chelsea out to have sex with people for money. equally as overblown was hillary's reaction to it.

It was a disgusting comment, and highlighted double standards within the media. It's perfectly ok to demean or insult women (unless the offender is a republican), whereas any hint of racism is met with criticism. Hillary was savaged throughout that primary season and no one said anything.

I may no like or respect Palin but there's no question she was also subjected to sexist attacks

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

<tear runs down face>
I miss him so so much for what he bought to the race.

Forward.

Cain was too rapey to win. He had 3 women say he grabbed them, and the legal settlements and HR records to prove it. He would've done even worse among women than Romney.

I would agree, but then I think of the former Governor of CA. Also didn't unlike Clinton Herman not aim in the gutter? I can't recall offhand?

 

[speculawyer]

Romney had an event today that only held 200 people? Who the hell is running that campaign?

Maybe someone smart . . . it would have been worse to be a huge place with only 200 people in it.

 

[Zzoram]

I would agree, but then I think of the former Governor of CA. Also didn't unlike Clinton Herman not aim in the gutter? I can't recall offhand?

I can't actually understand what your second sentence is saying.

 

[RDreamer]

Maybe someone smart . . . it would have been worse to be a huge place with only 200 people in it.

If Obama can get 18,000 people out to a rally I'd have to hope for Romney's sake he can get more than 200...

 

[Forever]

It was a disgusting comment, and highlighted double standards within the media.

He was suspended indefinitely, the network executives apologized to the campaign repeatedly, and he wrote a letter of apology as well.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

I can't actually understand what your second sentence is saying.

I was trying to jokingly ask weren't the women who Cain harassed, significantly better looking than Clinton's, one who we all remembered looked like she was straight from the trailer park.

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

I would agree, but then I think of the former Governor of CA. Also didn't unlike Clinton Herman not aim in the gutter? I can't recall offhand?

The story about Schwarzenegger's love child didn't come out until after the 2010 election though. I mean, he was well known as a womanizer but I think people are more forgiving of infidelity if you're a big hollywood star. Cain on the other hand was groping his employees and being sued.

Didn't Cain also only cheat with white women, even though his wife is black?

 

[Stinkles]

It was a disgusting comment, and highlighted double standards within the media. It's perfectly ok to demean or insult women (unless the offender is a republican), whereas any hint of racism is met with criticism. Hillary was savaged throughout that primary season and no one said anything.

I may no like or respect Palin but there's no question she was also subjected to sexist attacks

Unlike Hilary, she attempted to cash in on, or at least gain from, her sexuality. Doesn't excuse the double standard, which is still disgusting, but she made her own bed and more importantly, was one of the greatest retards in political history, gender aside.

 

[Zzoram]

I was trying to jokingly ask weren't the women who Cain harassed, significantly better looking than Clinton's, one who we all remembered looked like she was straight from the trailer park.

Maybe that's why people found it harder to believe most of the accusations against Clinton. The women who accused him weren't attractive so it was hard to imagine why someone would make unwanted advances toward them.

 

[polyh3dron]

It was a disgusting comment, and highlighted double standards within the media. It's perfectly ok to demean or insult women (unless the offender is a republican), whereas any hint of racism is met with criticism. Hillary was savaged throughout that primary season and no one said anything.

It was a colloquialism, basically meaning that Chelsea was being exploited. It wasn't the most tactful way to say it, but to say there was some kind of malice behind it is a bit much. This Slate piece explains it pretty well:

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/the_good_word/2008/02/a_history_of_pimping.html